khandor’s sports blog

Although plenty of other NBA observers have expressed their concerns regarding the current performance of the Orlando Magic …

A Quantitative Look at the Orlando Magic’s Four All-Stars

Orlando Magic News for January 19th: Sobering Assessments of Orlando’s Season Abound at the Halfway Mark

much of what’s been said to-date misses the mark completely, when it comes to diagnosing accurately:

#1. What’s been going on with Orlando in the last month [or so]?

and,

#2. What specific remedies the Magic will need to implement, in order to make their problems disappear for the balance of this season? 

There are five simple [inter-related] player personnel moves which Stan Van Gundy needs to implement that will cure what is ailing the Orlando Magic at the moment:

1. Replace Jason Williams with Anthony Johnson as the exclusive primary Back-up Point Guard to Jameer Nelson.

2. Remove Matt Barnes from the regular rotation.

3. Shift Rashard Lewis into the Starting Small Forward position.

4. Shift Ryan Anderson into the Starting Power Forward position.

5. Use Brandon Bass in the Back-up Power Forward position.

What these five specific changes would do, in effect, is create a regular rotation which features the following Start Five:

Jameer Nelson, PG
Vince Carter, OG
Rashard Lewis, SF
Ryan Anderson, PF
Dwight Howard, C

in conjunction with the following set of Key Subs off the bench:

Anthony Johnson, PG
JJ Redick, OG
Mickael Pietrus, SF
Brandon Bass, PF 
Marcin Gortat, C

and the following list of Reserves/Extras/Outs:

Jason Williams, PG
Matt Barnes, SF
Adonal Foyle, C

Move #1
With a healthy Jameer Nelson [PG] in their everyday line-up, an erratic player like Jason Williams [PG] is not the right fit with their team, in a primary back-up role, in comparison with a more consistent player like Anthony Johnson [who is a much better defender and rebounder than J-Wil, at this stage of their respective careers].

Game Log for Anthony Johnson in Orlando’s Last 13 Games

Game Log for Anthony Johnson when playing +10:00

Move #2
Although Matt Barnes [6-7, 226] has proved to be an energetic player over the course of his NBA career, right now he is not a “good fit” with the Magic, given his specific skill-set [i.e. 3FG%=28.6; Ast:TO=1.0] and considering the other guards and forwards on their roster.

Move #3
Using a player like Rashard Lewis [6-10, 230] at the Starting SF position makes the Magic bigger at this spot … i.e. compared with Matt Barnes [6-7, 226] … while still retaining their collective ability to shoot the ball effectively from the perimeter [i.e. 3FG%=39.5] and make good decisions [i.e. Ast:TO=1.0] around a center-piece like Dwight Howard.

This move would then allow Mickael Pietrus to flourish, by providing Orlando with a much better scorer and defender coming off the bench, at this key swing position, instead of Matt Barnes.

Move #4
Ryan Anderson is a solid low-maintenance perimeter shooting Big Man who can stretch defense around D-12 and defend adequately: [i] on the perimeter against smaller players, and [ii] in the post against non-behemoth Power Forwards and Centers.

Move #5
Brandon Bass is an under-sized Power Forward who, on offense, works well in the mid-range area [i.e. FG%=53.1] and is able to hold his ground, defensively, and in terms of rebounding, against any Back-up PF. Unfortunately, to this point in the season, he is being wasted on the Magic’s bench with a series of DNPs.

—————————–

Magic Remedy, Part 1

If Stan Van Gundy makes these specific personnel adjustments Orlando will finish in 1 of the top 4 positions in the Eastern Conference, once again, and advance to the East Finals, against Boston or Cleveland or Atlanta or Miami, with a solid shot at returning to the NBA Finals this season. 

Magic Remedy, Part II

What Stan Van Gundy also needs to do, however, is return to being the curmudgeon he has always been, not the giant “teddy bear” he has morphed into recently, in the aftermath of Dwight Howard’s request to “lighten up” on his routinely harsh criticism of his own team/players.

If Stan chooses to continue on his current path, then, Orlando will have very little chance of besting Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta or Miami in the playoffs this season.

This is not the sort of team that Stan Van Gundy can afford to “go soft on”.

Which team[s] made out the best from the 4-team trade … between Toronto, Dallas, Memphis and Orlando … this past summer?

Rick Kamla gets it right.

Orlando Magic 125
TORONTO RAPTORS 116
[Sun Nov 01 2009]

Box Score Info

Crucial Sequence, Play-By-Play

Crucial Sequence, Substitution Chart

Gruesome Details

1. Orlando played without Vince Carter [Starting Off Guard], Mickael Pietrus [Starting Small Forward] and Rashard Lewis [Starting Power Forward].

2. Between the end of the 1st Quarter [36-28] and the 7:03 mark of the 2nd Quarter, Orlando opened up a 22 point lead [54-32].

3. The Raptors players who were on the floor for this specific segment of the game were:

PG - Jarrett Jack [3:57, -14]
OG - Marco Belinelli [3:44, -9]; Antoine Wright [1:13, -5]
SF - Antoine Wright [3:44, -9]; Hedo Turkoglu [1:13, -5]
PF - Chris Bosh [3:14, -7]; Amir Johnson [1:43, -7]
C - Rasho Nesterovic [3:14, -7]; Andrea Bargnani [1:43, -7]

4. There are good reasons why Indiana, Golden State, Dallas, Milwaukee and Orlando each chose not to retain the services of Misters Jack, Belinelli, Wright, Johnson and Turkoglu, respectively, this past summer AND the Raptors need to seriously consider limiting the floor time given to Andrea Bargnani this season.

Instead of placing blame for this loss on a player like Jose Calderon [PG] … whose specific strengths and weaknesses were well-known two seasons ago when he first won the Starting PG job over incumbent TJ Ford … accusing fingers in Raptorville should be pointing in an entirely different direction, i.e. at the architect[s] of the team.

——————————

PS. Raptors fans were told in the summer which specific teams SHOULD have been viewed, both, at the time and down-the-road, as the BIGGEST winners in the four-team [blockbuster?] trade between Toronto [1-2], Memphis [1-2], Dallas [2-1] and Orlando [3-0]. Shame on you, if you were one of those who chose NOT to listen back then.

PPS. Yes, the 2009-2010 regular season is only 3 games old for the Raptors, but … when you look closely at the first 20 games on their schedule … it doesn’t get any easier for Toronto until the 2nd week of December.

Related:

When three birds of a different feather flock together it’s a poor omen for the Raptors

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 14 – vs Orlando [Sun Nov 22]

The Magic’s 2nd trip to the ACC this season should prove to be more enjoyable for the visitors. Knowing full well what it feels like to play and lose a 1:00 PM game on Sunday afternoon, after spending the previous night in Toronto, should produce a much more determined effort from Orlando this time around … especially, with Rashard Lewis back in the line-up [i.e. following his league-imposed early season suspension]. 

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 5-9

———————————–

PS. During the 2006-2007 season Orlando [40-42/.488; 3rd Southeast] and Toronto [47-35/.573; 1st Atlantic] finished as the 8th and 3rd seeded teams in the EC playoffs, respectively. Since then, however, the fortunes of their franchises have gone in completely opposite directions. 

2007-2008, Orlando [1st Southwest; Lost 2nd Rd of Playoffs to Detroit]; Toronto [2nd Atlantic; Lost 1st Rd of playoffs to Orlando]

2008-2009, Orlando [Southwest, 1st; NBA Finalist]; Toronto [Atlantic 4th; missed playoffs]

2009-2010, Orlando [plus .500?]; Toronto [minus .500?]

With:

1. Vince Carter [G-F] now in Orlando and Hedo Turkoglu [SF] now in Toronto;

2. Dwight Howard [C] in Orlando and Andrea Bargnani [C] in Toronto;

3. Rashard Lewis [PF] in Orlando and Chris Bosh [PF] in Toronto;

4. Jameer Nelson [PG] in Orlando and Jose Calderon [PG] in Toronto;

5. JJ Redick [OG] in Orlando and DeMar DeRozan [OG] in Toronto;

6. Stan Van Gundy [head coach] in Orlando and Jay Triano [head coach] in Toronto;

7. Otis Smith/Dave Twardzik [as the management team] in Orlando and Bryan Colangelo/Maurizio Gherardini in Toronto [as the management team]; and,

8. Rich DeVos [as the owner] in Orlando and MLSE [as the owners] in Toronto;

it is going to be very interesting to see how these two franchises compare over the next few seasons. 

Finally … a stats guru speaks who is at least on the right track.

How stats apply to individual match-ups for elite level NBA coaches
WW: Tracy McGrady is a player who has never helped his team as much as people thought. Allen Iverson — for one or two years he was really good.

The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.

Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.

(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)

There’s a bunch of guys like that.

Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)

Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.

HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t. 

WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.

But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.

It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.

If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.

Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright.  He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible. 

Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.

Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.

———————————

THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.

Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!

PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play?  Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.

PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.

PPPS. Btw … What Wayne Winston had to say in this piece about there being no distinction necessary between the use of players like Brandon Bass [#4/PF] and Dirk Nowitzki [#5/C], on the court together, regardless of their position, and the effect/thinking of Mike D’Antoni, just happens to be wrong.

Continuing the series which was started here on Monday … 

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 3 – vs Orlando [Sun Nov 01]

Coming off an 0-2 start to the new season, this is a 2nd key early game for the Raptors. If Toronto is actually going to re-assert itself this season, as a legit team in the EC playoff race, the Dinos will need to win this Sunday afternoon tilt against a Magic squad that will be without the services of Rashard Lewis [i.e. absent due to league-imposed suspension]. With the support of a typically raucous home crowd, the off day in-between road games for Orlando [whose players will be spending Saturday evening experiencing the nightlife in T.O.], and this being Hedo Turkoglu’s first home game in his new digs vs the squad that declined the opportunity to pay him the $$$ he felt he deserved this summer, as an important UFA for a team that advanced to the NBA Finals last season … the Raptors should be able to win this match-up. If not … it might be a really long year ahead for the Dinos.  

[PLEASE NOTE: Should the Magic start their season 2-0 before arriving in Toronto, and Vince Carter decides that he is really going to "bring it" vs his old team, and a defender like Turk ... who cannot check him 1-on-1 if his life depended on it ... and the ridiculous chorus of revengeful boos that repeatedly rain down upon him at the Air Canada Centre ... then it should come as no surprise, whatsoever, if the Magic can actually pull this one out of the fire, at the last second, on a terrific set play drawn up by SVG. As such, this could be a real hum-dinger ... and a critical swing game for the Raptors!]

Raptors expected W-L Record: W, 1-2

Thus far, this summer, every personnel move made by the Magic has been Right on the Money!

Magic close to signing C.J. Watson
The Orlando Magic are close to signing free agent point guard C.J. Watson, giving them an alternative to veteran Anthony Johnson as a backup to often-injured Jameer Nelson.

According to NBA sources, Watson could be signed as early as this weekend. Watson last season averaged 9.5 points and 2.7 assists, mostly as a backup for the Warriors. Golden State would have seven days to match any offer, since Watson is a restricted free agent.

———-

Yes, C.J. Watson is a restricted free agent and Golden State still has the right to match this offer from Orlando in order to retain his services … but, if the the Warriors decide to decline this opportunity, given the other PG’s they have on their roster, the Magic will have struck gold once again during the free agency period.

Whatever criticism may have been levied towards Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik prior to last season needs to be discarded as complete nonsense. No one makes a series of inter-connected moves over an extended period of time … like these manoeuvres … without having a well-formulated plan in place that is being gradually unfurled like clockwork. 

When you look at their roster from three seasons ago [40-42/.488, 3rd place Southeast] … and, then, compare it to what’s there now, surrounding a stud like D12 [C]:

STARTERS
1 Jameer Nelson, PG, 6th yr
2 Vince Carter, OG, 12th yr
3 Rashard Lewis, SF-PF, 12th yr 
4 Brandon Bass, PF, 5th yr
5 Dwight Howard, C, 6th yr

KEY SUBS
6 Anthony Johnson, PG, 13 yr
7 JJ Redick, OG, 4th yr
8 Mickael Pietrus, SF, 7th yr
9 Ryan Anderson, PF, 2nd yr
10 Marcin Gortat, C, 3rd yr

KEY RESERVES
11 C.J. Watson, PG, 3rd yr - ? [restricted free agent/Golden State]  
12 Jeremy Richardson, SF, 4th yr - ? [restricted free agent/Orlando]
13 Player X, PF/C - ? 

——————————————————
Legend:
Italics - Added 2 seasons ago; Bold Italics - Added 1 season ago; Bold - Added this season.
————————————————————-

it’s a treat to see High End pro’s like this in action.

Despite the fact that there are those in Raptorville who think that their favourite team has perhaps improved the most of all, so far, this summer, there is now a growing number of NBA observers who do not see this off season’s respective pluses and minuses adding up in that exact way.

e.g.  Roundtable: Analyzing free agency

The most recent of these is a solid article yesterday, by Kelly Dwyer, that examines THE team which he believes has, in fact, improved the most this summer during the initial stage of the Free Agency period.

The Orlando Magic are stacked
Even if Carter steps back a bit, at his age. Even if Gortat sulks, Nelson doesn’t bounce back, Howard doesn’t turn into Kevin McHale, and Bass starts slowly. This team is still better. Way better. And we’ve barely mentioned Ryan Anderson’s pretty, pretty eyes.

Have they paid through the teeth? Are they trying to win now? Hell yes. That contract was signed as soon as the sign-and-trade with Rashard Lewis went through two summers ago. When they committed that much to a player in his prime, the Magic signed off on the win now scheme, even if Howard was years away from his peak.

That’s bad, if you screw it up. The Magic, Otis Smith and Dave Twardzik, haven’t screwed it up. And credit the team’s ownership for paying for a winner. Even before the new stadium goes up. Even in this economy. Good on them. Appreciate these moves, because this team is running rings around everyone else this summer. I wouldn’t be as excited for Richard Jefferson, cats and kittens.

There’s a good-to-great chance it could mean a second round exit. That’s how tough the East is at the top of the order, and that’s OK. Hedo will be just fine in his first couple of years in Toronto, VC is past his prime, and these moves aren’t exactly fiscally responsible.

Doesn’t matter. They’re moves. They’re great moves. This team went to the Finals last month, and in the four weeks since, it’s gotten much, much better. Appreciate that.

———-

The direct tie-in to the Raptors’ current situation shouldn’t be that hard for most of the team’s die-hard fans to see for themselves

[Note: Just in case they can't quite make it out properly, however, it's related to the names of one Vincent Lamar Carter, who made his NBA bones in Toronto, and the Turkish Michael Jordan [i.e. Hedo Turkoglu], who hopes to sustain his solid play of the last few seasons in his new digs north of the 49th Parallel.]

———-

If the general consensus in the on-line hoops community of NBA observers is that:

1 The Magic have indeed improved the most this off season, thus far;
2 The Magic, Cavaliers and Celtics … in any order of finish in the regular season standings you might choose to prefer … should prove to be the top 3 teams in the EC this year, with perhaps the Hawks [i.e. #4 last year, who have re-signed their own FA plus added J-Crawford] and the Heat [i.e. #5 last year, who are now in the running to add Iverson or Boozer and/or Odom] hot on their heels;

This would then seem to leave the Bulls, Bobcats, Bucks, Knicks, Nets, Pacers, Pistons, Raptors, 76ers and Wizards in a dogfight terrific race for the #6, #7 and #8 positions in the Eastern Conference Playoffs next season.