khandor’s sports blog

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 16 – at Charlotte [Wed Nov 25]

This is a back-2-back game for the Raptors. Although these two line-ups are relatively equivalent, in terms of individual match-up advantages, the additional experience which Raja Bell and Larry Brown have, in comparison with DeMar DeRozan and Jay Triano, respectively, gives Charlotte an edge which should be enough to secure a W in a close game.

Expect the Bobcats to be one of several improved teams in the EC this year battling for a lower tier playoff spot with the Raptors.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 6-10

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PS. This contest holds a high degree of interest, due to the presence of rookies DeMar DeRozan [No. 9/1st Rd, USC, OG-SF], Gerald Henderson [No. 12/1st Rd, Duke, OG-SF] and Derrick Brown [No. 40/2nd Rd, Xavier, PF-SF]. Brown, in particular, was a relatively unheralded player in this year’s NBA Draft who yours truly would have liked to see the Raptors trade down to obtain … in addition to receiving other assets, in exchange for the No. 9 [overall] Selection. Although it is still very early in the process, all three players seem to be acquitting themselves nicely in the NBA.

It’s interesting when others in the blogosphere attempt to rank NBA players, by position, according to a metric which is based, at least, in part, on standardized game statistics, e.g. PPG, RPG, APG, TS% and PER.

Ranking Eastern Conference Power Forwards
As always, these rankings are meant to project how I think they’ll perform next season, not what they’ve done in the past. The numbers next to each player are last season’s points, assists and rebounds per 36 minutes, their True Shooting percentage (TS%) and their Player Efficiency Ratings (PER).

1. Chris Bosh, Toronto — 2008-09 numbers: 21.5 PTS, 2.3 AST, 9.5 REB, .569 TS%, 22.1 PER
CB4 probably belongs on the top of this list even if he just delivers the same numbers he has over the past four seasons, but it’s a contract year and he wants to prove he’s worth a max contract. I don’t know if his scoring numbers will increase, but I think he’s going to jack up his intensity on defence and on the boards.

2. Kevin Garnett, Boston — 2008-09 numbers: 18.3 PTS, 2.9 AST, 9.9 REB, .563 TS%, 21.2 PER
Before KG screwed up his knee, he was easily the best power forward in the East. Since he’s 33 years old, I’m skeptical that he can return with the same athleticism and explosiveness he’s known for. Of course, Boston fans will tell you that he’ll more than make up for that with heart, intensity, and plain ol’ Celtic Pride. (Pausing to vomit profusely in wastebasket.)

3. Rashard Lewis, Orlando — 2008-09 numbers: 17.6 PTS, 2.6 AST, 5.7 REB, .580 TS%, 16.8 PER
Rashard scored in double figures in all 19 playoff games leading up to the NBA Finals — he was particularly devastating in helping to dispatch the favoured Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. He might end up sliding over to small forward while new team-mate Brandon Bass mans the four-spot, but without confirmation I’ll assume that Lewis will remain the starting power forward and an excellent complement to Dwight Howard’s power game.

4. Josh Smith, Atlanta — 2008-09 numbers: 16.0 PTS, 2.5 AST, 7.4 REB, .533 TS%, 17.2 PER
Sure, he’s a knucklehead, but a very talented one. If he stops jacking up ill-advised threes and returns to being one of the most devastating shot-blockers in the league, Smith’s $10.8 million salary next season might actually seem like a relative bargain.

5. Elton Brand, Philadelphia — 2008-09 numbers: 15.6 PTS, 1.4 AST, 9.9 REB, .484 TS%, 14.6 PER
If he was still in his prime, Brand would easily be third on this list. Unfortunately, he was in the bottom half of Eastern power forwards last season because he was labouring with a bum shoulder and he only played in 29 games. There isn’t a strong track record of big men in their 30s returning to their prior glory after a bad run of injuries (see: Jermaine O’Neal) but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he can get his shooting percentage back up to pre-injury form since he claims he’s feeling like his old self again.

6. Antawn Jamison, Washington — 2008-09 numbers: 20.9 PTS, 1.8 AST, 8.4 REB, .549 TS%, 20.6 PER
Jamison has always put up good numbers and as far as I know, he’s always been a terrible defender. That might help explain why the Wizards had the second-worst record in the NBA last season.

7. Troy Murphy, Indiana — 2008-09 numbers: 15.1 PTS, 2.5 AST, 12.5 REB, .614 TS%, 17.8 PER
Is Troy Murphy a better athlete than Andrea Bargnani? And if not, how does Troy grab twice as many rebounds as Andrea per 36 minutes? Murphy is just as deadly from beyond the arc (45% last season) as Bargnani, but our guy gets the edge on defence because Murph is lousy on that end.

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Or, do they reveal a bias of some sort … i.e. in favour or against specific players; or, a specific “type” of player … at this position?

FWIW …

Here are the preferences of this corner when it comes to choosing the best Power Forward from the Eastern Conference, from this list, if the goal is Winning … e.g. a Do-or-Die Playoff Game … this coming season.

Two highly interesting points of view …

Steve Kerr - the lost interviews, part I
A mid-April conclusion to the Suns season just leaves more time for second guesses about last season and first suggestions about next season.

Suns General Manager Steve Kerr tackled both departments after a 46-36 that was better than 17 other NBA teams’ records but considered by many as the most disappointing outcome in the league. The season was marred by Leandro Barbosa’s absence and an uncomfortable coaching change early and Amare Stoudemire’s and Barbosa’s injuries later. In between, Kerr shook the team’s core up by trading Boris Diaw, Raja Bell and Sean Singletary to Charlotte for Jason Richardson, Jared Dudley and a 2010 second-round draft pick.

“I don’t see a massive overhaul as being necessary,” Kerr said. “We won 46 games in a season in which we endured a lot of turmoil, from the coaching situation to the injury to Amare to a pretty big trade. We had a lot of change.

“I know all of us in that room feel like that 46 should have been about 52, 53. I have no doubt that this team is a very, very competitive good playoff team. Unfortunately, we didn’t make it. That doesn’t mean we’re going to blow up the team and start over. It also doesn’t mean there couldn’t be some changes. We have to evaluate everything. We could’ve done better. This was not a championship team. This was a very good team that could’ve done better but we have to improve and we have to make improvements this summer.”

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Shaq - the lost interviews, part II
The Suns talked about trading O’Neal at midseason and will explore the idea again. He has made himself a tradeable commodity despite the $20 million price tag ($21 million cap number) and the Suns will be looking to begin to transform itself into a younger team. Part of that redesign could include seeking a center who is more mobile to defend and help defend.

“I realize every summer something might happen,” O’Neal said. “Something will change. I just told Steve (Kerr) that ‘I’ve been under a lot of general managers but no one treated me the way you did,’ ” O’Neal said. “Whatever happens, I understand the business and we all just have to move on. Steve was great. At the trade deadline, he didn’t have to call me and ask me if I wanted to go. A lot of guys would’ve just did it. He promised me if something would go down, that he’d call me and he called me. I love him for that. I respect him for that. I played for a lot of great GMs and he’s up there.”

“How to turn around the fortunes of your pro sports team”, NBA 101 Management Handbook, p. 23.

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Make a legitimate run for the 8th playoff spot in the 2008-2009 season

Add Vladimir Radmanovic [Lakers] in exchange for Adam Morrison

Add DeSagana Diop [Mavs] in exchange for Ryan Hollins & Matt Carroll

Decide NOT to trade Raymond Felton [PG]

Add Raja Bell and Boris Diaw and Sean Singletary [Suns] in exchange for J-Rich & J-Dudley

Add Juwon Howard [as a veteran Big off the bench] from the scrap heap

Decide NOT to trade Sean May AND to sit him on the bench  

Add Cartier Martin [OG/SF] and Dontell Jefferson [OG] from the pool of undrafted players

Add DJ Augustin [as a solid PG] from the 2008 NBA Draft

Add Alexis Ajinca [as a long term project, C] from the 2008 NBA Draft

Decide NOT to trade Gerald Wallace [SF/PF]

Hire Larry Brown to coach your team AND empower him to make trades

Retain Nazr Mohammed [as a solid veteran Big off the bench]

Re-sign Emeka Okafor, your 2004 No. 2 [overall] Draft Pick, as an emotionally stable, hard-working Center, who can Rebound & Defend his position, when others suggested that he was a “bad” long term investment for your team

Hire the most reknowned former player in NBA history to oversee the operation of your franchise [i.e. you know who]

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It’s not rocket science … and, your GM certainly doesn’t NEED to have been named a winner of the NBA’s Executive of the Year Award even one time, during his career to-date.

FINAL SCORE: TORONTO 89, Charlotte 102
Complete Game Info

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Offensively, Andrea Bargnani played well; and, Chris Bosh was okay.

Defensively, Bosh was a non-factor … primarily because he was, once again, checking the #4/PF position [vs Boris Diaw], which he cannot do at a high level, especially with an injured right knee.

However, the 2 absolute worst Raptors last night, on this end of the floor, were Bargnani [from a Team D standpoint] and Shawn Marion [who was simply embarassed by Gerald Wallace, from an Individual D standpoint ... primarily because he was checking the #3/SF position, which he should no longer be asked to do at this stage of his career].

Jose Calderon was okay defensively, any time he did not have to work against a Pick situation WITH Bargnani as the Picker’s defender. In this specific situation the Raptors simply get destroyed … because of Bargnani’s inability to defend without [i] fouling or [ii] getting blown by or [iii] shot over, not because of Calderon’s inability to keep his own check in front of him.

Calderon was victimized on the defensive glass several times in the 2nd half primarily because the Raptors’ #5’s/#4’s/#3’s could not get the job done rebounding wise and Raymond Felton was able to out-quick him to loose balls in the mid-range area of the court.

On account of Bosh’s limited mobility these days [see the lingering effect of his knee injury], it’s also become quite an adventure every his check goes to set a Pick on Calderon, as Bosh simply doesn’t have the lateral agility right now it takes to defend properly vs this action.

When you’re playing with an injury, it is much easier to move semi-properly on offense, since you are the one initiating that action.

On defense, since you’re the one “reacting” instead, it’s a different situation altogether.

Forget about the Debacle in Denver.
Forget about the Mishap vs Milwaukee.
Forget about the shellacking last week at Charlotte.
Forget about all the other losses incurred so far this season.

At home, last night, in a game they ABSOLUTELY had to win to justify Bryan Colangelo’s FAITH in them, as a group of players WHO HE HAS SAID REPEATEDLY …

“Is the best he’s assembled thus far for the Raptors, on paper …”

this collection of players and coaches came up whoa nellie woefully short and was thoroughly embarassed at the ACC by the once-lowly Bobcats … who have successfully turned their franchise around this season and are now heading in the RIGHT direction under the tutelage of Larry Brown … as was suggested in the summer was going to happen for this team this season, in comparison with the Raptors.

Right now, heading toward the future, there is NO REASON whatsoever for anyone who is not named Bryan Colangelo to believe in earnest [and with a degree of basketball sophistication] that any of the following teams will finish below the Toronto Raptors in the 2009-2010 Eastern Conference regular season standings:

1 Cleveland
2 Boston
3 Orlando
4 Atlanta
5 Philadelphia
6 Miami
7 Detroit
8 Chicago
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New Jersey
Charlotte
Milwaukee
Indiana
New York
Washington

None, whatsoever.

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RELATED:

Fans at boiling point [The best and most thorough basketball article these eyes have read from Frank Zicarelli in a long time. Kudos to him!]

FINAL SCORE: Raptors 86, BOBCATS 112
Complete Game Info

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It’s becoming comical to see and track just How MUCH BETTER the Raptors are when [1] Chris Bosh plays the Center position, in comparison with [2] the Power Forward position, or [3] when he’s not in the game at all.

Yet, certain fan web sites and on-line voices are now maintaining that the team MIGHT be better off long term if they trade their Captain and continue to re-build their squad around Andrea Bargnani, as their Cornerstone Player … either, as their Starting Center or their Starting Power Forward.

In reality, this option makes little sense … based on the in-game production of these two players, the roles they fulfil for this team and the way in which the Raptors perform when each of them is on the court, either, separately or together.

If you look at the following Substitution Chart, you should be able to see: