There are three main phases to the game of basketball:
i. Offense;
ii. Defense; and,
iii. Rebounding.
Developing an accurate understanding of the overall NBA talent which exists on the roster for each team at the beginning of the season is a fundamental aspect of properly evaluating the day-to-day goings-on across the league over the course of the season.
The NBA Playoffs are set to tip-off in approximately 40 minutes.
This year, there are a number of teams with legitimate aspirations to win the league championship, including:
Chicago Bulls [EC1]
Miami Heat [EC2]
Boston Celtics [EC3]
San Antonio Spurs [WC1]
LA Lakers [WC2]
based on:
#1. The overall ability level of their rotational players;
#2. The specific ability levels of their bonafide “star” players;
#3. The ability level of their coach [and his staff];
#4. The prior experience of their rotational players; and,
#5. The prior experience of their coach [and his staff].
Below this elite group, there is a larger 2nd tier, that is very strong, as well, but with individial teams that fall just short of the 1st tier, in one or more of the above criteria, including:
Dallas [i.e. deficient in #2]
Orlando [i.e. deficient in #2]
Oklahoma City [i.e. deficient in #3 and #4]
Denver [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4]
New York [i.e. deficient in #1 and #3]
Philadelphia [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4]
Atlanta [i.e. deficient in #2, #3 and #5]
Portland [i.e. deficient in #1, #2 and #4]
Below this 2nd group, there is a 3rd tier, which contains individual teams that are not quite where the others are … as of yet … in terms of “readiness” to advance beyond the 2nd Round of the Playoffs, based on the criteria above AND specific personnel absences, including:
New Orleans [i.e. missing a key player in David West]
Memphis [i.e. Playoffs newbies]
Indiana [Playoffs newbies]
Given how close the top 5 teams are to one another this year, and to what degree the eventual outcome can/will be determined by a single crucial injury, at an inopportune moment …
Kudos to Marc Spears [Yahoo! Sports, NBA Analyst] for going out on a limb, early on, with his prediction for this year’s championship-winning team.
This is the “unofficial entry” for yours truly in the annual contest run by Henry Abbott:
Eastern Conference, Quarter-finals
[1] Chicago [QIR/#1] vs [8] Indiana [QIR/#19]
SELECTION: Bulls in 5.
[4] Orlando [QIR/#3] vs [5] Atlanta [QIR/#15]
SELECTION: Magic in 7.
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[2] Miami [QIR/#2] vs [7] Philadelphia [QIR/#13]
SELECTION: Heat in 5.
[3] Boston [QIR/#5] vs [6] New York [QIR/#25]
SELECTION: Celtics in 6.
===================================
Western Conference, Quarter-finals
[1] San Antonio [QIR/#7] vs [8] Memphis [QIR/#9]
SELECTION: Spurs in 5.
[4] Oklahoma City [QIR/#9] vs [5] Denver [QIR/#12]
SELECTION: Nuggets in 6.
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[2] Los Angeles [QIR/#4] vs [7] New Orleans [QIR/#6]
SELECTION: Lakers in 5.
[3] Dallas [QIR/#7] vs [6] Portland [QIR/#11]
SELECTION: Trail Blazers in 6.
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PS. You might also benefit from knowing that no other “NBA Analyst” has forecast more playoff series accurately, in advance, over the course of the last 4 years, than yours truly.
Before sending Mike Bibby [PG], Maurice Evans [G/F] and Jordan Crawford [G] to the Washington Wizards, prior to the NBA’s deadline, in exchange for Kirk Hinrich [G] and Hilton Armstrong [PF/C], the Atlanta Hawks [40-32/.556] were firmly ensconced in the top half of the Eastern Conference with a Won-Loss Record of 34-23/.596.
Since that deal was made, however, the Hawks have been in a fairly rapid decent [i.e. W-L Rec/6-9/.400], and are now in danger of relinquishing the No. 5 position in the East to the hard-charging Philadelphia 76ers [37-34/.521].
Unlike assorted others in the on-line hoops community, who believe that the Hawks are in total disarray right now …
The team is in a freefall mostly because it isn’t shooting as well as it used to. Joe Johnson still has his moments but he isn’t the sort of offensive force to build around, and while newly-added Kirk Hinrich is actually making nearly half of his three-pointers as a Hawk, everyone else seems to be falling short.
Worse? Everyone else seems to be falling into a bit of a funk. On record.
Joe Johnson?
The Hawks have no “sense of pride, a sense of urgency. … We should play for one another, but yet still we don’t.” And that “countless” players-only meetings meant to stir the echoes have “meant nothing.”
Al Horford?
“We just have to be mentally stronger.”
Coach Larry Drew?
His team is “a little fragile right now,” and the Hawks “have got to heal, more so mentally than physically.”
Josh Smith?
“When you don’t help each other, it gets contagious. We just didn’t show any kind of resistance.”
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this corner of the blogosphere can see a clear way out for the Hawks, if they will just remain calm and search for the right answer to their current set of problems, from within the cozy confines of their own roster of players.
If the Hawks go with the following rotation in their next game [Sat Mar 26, vs New Jersey]:
STARTERS
PG, Jeff Teague [i.e. their best play-making PG]
OG, Joe Johnson
SF, Marvin Williams
PF, Josh Smith
C, Al Horford
KEY SUBS
G, Jamal Crawford [i.e. their best "scorer" off the bench]
G, Kirk Hinrich [i.e. their best "defensive Guard" off the bench]
SF, Damien Wilkins
PF, Josh Powell [i.e. their best "mid-range shooting Big" off the bench]
C, Zaza Pachulia [i.e. their best "rebounding/defensive Big" off the bench]
RESERVES
PF/C, Etan Thomas
C, Jason Collins
EXTRAS/OUTS
SF, Pape Sy
PF/C, Hilton Armstrong
and, therefore, use MORE of their avalibale players … as opposed to scaling back the number of players they use in their regular rotation, which is precisely the major mistake that Larry Drew [Head Coach] has made, since the trade for Kirk Hinrich was completed … it should come as no surprise, at all, to see this team register a very badly needed W.
Once the Hawks can right their ship, by getting this W, and establishing a clear rotation, as outlined above, Atlanta should then be able to string together a modest 3-game winning streak:
Sat Mar 26 vs New Jersey, W?
Sun Mar 27 @ Cleveland, W?
Wed Mar 30 vs Orlando, W?
before taking on the Boston Celtics, at home, on April Fool’s Day.
Although the Hawks have only played at a .400 clip since the trade deadline, it should be noted that:
3-0, vs. sub-.500 [at the time of the game]
Fri Feb 25, @ GSW, W
Tue Mar 15, vs MIL, W
Sun Mar 20, vs DET, W
3-9, vs. plus-.500 [at the time of the game]
Sun Feb 27, @ POR, W
Mon Feb 28, @ DEN, L
Wed Mar 02, vs CHI, W
Fri Mar 04, vs OKC, L
Sun Mar 06, vs NYK, L
Tue Feb 08, vs LAL, L
Fri Mar 11, @ CHI, L
Sat Mar 12, vs POR, W
Wed Mar 16, vs DEN, L
Fri Mar 18, vs MIA, L
Tue Mar 22, vs CHI, L
Wed Mar 23, @ PHI, L
i. They have played an extremely difficult schedule of games;
and,
ii. Each one of their losses has been to a team in the top half of the league standings … with a great deal at stake, at the time of the game;
while,
iii. Atlanta has basically been in cruise-control since the end of January:
Hawks W-L Record, Month-By-Month
October, 3-0
November, 8-7
December, 10-7
January, 9-4
February [before the trade deadline], 4-5
secure in the knowledge that their team is probably not good enough to move into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference AND not bad enough to fall completely out of playoff contention.
As long as Larry Drew can keep his wits about him for the rest of the regular season schedule … and settle on the rotation suggested here … the Hawks should be able to regain their footing and re-establish themselves as the 5th best team in the East this season.
Understanding how the Pick & Roll/Pop game actually works in the NBA is instrumental when analysing action, players, and coaches [etc.] accurately.
This is a breakdown of an article which appears at the fine site, Basketball Prospectus, authored by Sebastian Pruiti, some of which is accurate and some of which is inaccurate, according to yours truly.
[NOTE: BP only accepts comments from "Premium Subscribers", so there's a need to put this type of analysis on this blog.]
Enjoy!
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Clip 1
What Sebastian Says
- Erick Dampier shows hard even before Rose commits to using the screen, and Rose simply chooses to go away from the screen
- Because Dampier is out of the paint, Rose is able to get to the rim with ease
What Is Actually Happening
- Action: 1-4 Middle Pick with two offensive players located on the weak side [i.e. 5 in the low post; and, 2 in the corner] and one offensive player [i.e. 3] located in the ball side corner
- Dampier does not actually “hard show” [i.e. jump out early with his torso turned towards the near sideline] vs this action
- Dampier ”soft shows” [i.e. slides out early with his torso towards the centerline] vs this action
- Rose makes the correct read and drives in the opposite direction of the Middle Pick because:
i. Gibson is located in the weak side low post … not the ball side low post … which means there is now a second Miami defender on the weak side of the floor [i.e. James/X4, defending Gibson/low post], in addition to Miller [i.e. X2, defending Korver/corner]; and,
ii. There is only one other Miami defender on the ball side of the floor [i.e. Wade/X3, defending Deng/corner]
… not because of Dampier’s soft show
- The reason Rose can actually “get to the rim”, in this instance, is because:
i. Gibson is located in the weak side low post; and,
ii. NBA Defensive Rules dictate that James cannot be located in the ball side low post when his individual check – i.e. Gibson – is positioned on the weak side of the floor, outside of the lane;
… not because Dampier [i.e. the Pick defender] is “out of the paint.”
Clip 2
What Sebastian Says
- Hard shows leave a defense vulnerable to rim penetration by quick guards
- Hard shows leave a defense vulnerable to corner three-point shooting
- Hard shows require the corner defender to sink into the paint to defend the roller which leaves open the corner three which George Hill knocks down in this case
What Is Actually Happening
- Action: 2-5 Middle Pick with two offensive players located on the weak side - i.e. 3 on the wing; and, 4 in the corner – and one offensive player [i.e. 1] located in the ball side corner
- Bosh [i.e. X5] does not hard show
- Bosh soft shows
- the reason Hill is “wide open” in the original ball side corner is because:
i. San Antonio does not have a player located in the post [i.e. neither ball side, nor weak side] and, as per NBA Defensive Rules, Miami cannot have a defensive player located in the lane to provide ”early help” against the Roller;
ii. NBA Defensive Rules dictate that James and House [i.e. X4 and X3, respectively] cannot be located in the lane, if their individual checks [i.e. Bonner and Neal, respectively] are positioned on the weak side, outside of the lane; and,
iii. When Ginobili uses the Middle Pick and the Picker [i.e. Splitter] rolls to the hoop, Chalmers [i.e. X1, defending Hill/corner] is the defender on the original ball side of the floor who is eligible to rotate into the lane [i.e. by "sinking"] to defend against the Roller.
Clip 3
What Sebastian Says
- Recently, the Lakers have been defending the pick-and-roll in an opposite way with Bynum not showing on the ballhandler
- Wade comes off of a Pick set by Ilgauskas and, instead of showing hard, Bynum simply drops back to make sure he stays between Wade and the rim, forcing Wade into a jumper he misses
- Notice how Bynum doesn’t even get his arms up to contest the jumper, since he is more concerned with getting his body between Wade and the rim
What Is Actually Happening
- Action: 2-5 Side Pick with three offensive players located on the weak side [i.e. 3 on the wing/corner; 4 in the low post; and, 1 in the top right/wing] and no [i.e "zero"] other offensive players located on the original ball side of the floor
- Ilgauskas sets the Pick on the baseline side of the ball defender [i.e. Bryant], not the middle side
- Wade makes the correct read, attacking the side of the floor where the fewest number of Lakers defenders are located, and Los Angeles simply gets “lucky” when Flash misses a high percentage mid-range bank shot/quasi layup against the Lakers’ “sagging Pick defender” [i.e. Bynum]
Clip 4
What Sebastian Says
- Wade is coming off a Pick, this time at the top of the key and Bynum is the Pick defender
- Bynum drops back as his main concern is keeping Wade from getting to the rim
- This “drop back” action throws Wade off and he forces up an off-balance jumper which misses
What Is Actually Happening
- Action: 2-4 Middle Pick with one offensive player located on the weak side [i.e. 1 in the corner] and two offensive players located on the original ball side of the floor [i.e. 3 in the corner; and, 5 in the low post]
- Wade makes the correct read against the sagging Pick defender – i.e. to go around the Middle Pick set by Bosh and attack the weak side of the floor where there is only one other Lakers’ defender, in addition to Bynum - and Los Angeles simply gets “lucky” that he decides to take a fairly high percentage free-throw line area mid-range jump-shot, and misses … instead of going hard at Bynum off the dribble and:
i. Trying to draw contact at the rim;
ii. Drawing help from Gasol and, then, making an interior drop-off pass to Ilgauskas; or,
iii. Drawing help from Fisher and, then, making a corner kick-out pass to Bibby
Clip 5
What Sebastian Says
- Johnson comes off a Pick with Artest working over it and Bynum sagging to protect the rim
- Johnson can’t attack the lane, giving Artest time to close out on the shot, and challenge the jumper, which forces a miss
What Is Actually Happening
- Action: similar to Clip 3 [i.e. 2-5 Side Pick] … but, with:
* Johnson in the role of Wade … defended by Artest
* Horford in the role of Ilgauskas … defended by Bynum
* Smith in the role of Bosh … defended by Odom
* Hinrich in the role of James … defended by Bryant
* Crawford in the role of Chalmers … defended by Fisher
- A similar result for Los Angeles … not because the Lakers’ defense is “forcing” anything at all but, simply … because the offensive player with the ball in his hands [i.e. Johnson] chooses to shoot a lower percentage, fall-away, mid-range jump-shot and misses, rather than go hard at Bynum off the bounce to create a higher percentage shot, while moving towards the basket, either, for himself or one of his teammates.
Clip 6
What Sebastian Says
- In addition to forcing misses, the Lakers’ new pick-and-roll defense is able to create turnovers by taking away the ballhandler’s first option
What Is Actually Happening
- Action: [San Antonio's reknowned] 1-5 High Middle Flat Pick Series with one offensive player located in the right corner [i.e. 4], a second offensive player located in the left corner [i.e. 2] and a third offensive player located on the left wing [i.e. 3]
- This play fails to generate a good shot for the Spurs because George Hill makes the WRONG read:
i. He stops his dribble before getting into the lane when confronted by Bynum
ii. He does not want to shoot the ball because he is surrounded by Bynum and Brown
iii. He, then, attempts to make a kick-out pass back to the side of the floor where the Lakers have 2 additional defenders located [i.e. Bryant vs Neal; and, Fisher vs Ginobili]
instead of:
A. Going hard at Bynum to draw the contact and finish at the rim; or,
B. Going hard at Bynum to draw help from Odom [i.e. the lone Lakers' defender on the right side of the floor], who is sinking off Bonner in the right corner, and then making an easy kick-out pass to the corner for an open, high percentage, catch-and-shoot;
- Hill commits a turnover because HE makes a poor decision/read initially
Clip 7
What Sebastian Says
- Wade is coming off a Pick and Bynum shows softly
- With Bynum keeping Wade out of the paint and protecting the rim, Pau Gasol is allowed to freelance a little bit (since he is not worried about help defense at the rim), and he is able to make a read on Wade’s pass and steal the basketball
What Is Actually Happening
- Action: similar to Clip 3 [i.e. 2-5 Side Pick]
- Bynum is not showing softly; he is sagging off
- The main reason Gasol is able to steal the ball is … not because he is able to “freelance” during this sequence, but … because his defensive check [i.e. Howard] is NO LONGER located in the weak side low post position but, instead, is “flashing toward the ball side elbow” … which takes the “trailing” Gasol directly into the intended path of Wade’s interior pass to James [i.e. the basket-cutter]
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In order to properly evaluate the effectiveness of a particular NBA team’s Pick and Roll/Pop game, it is necessary to understand:
1. ”How The NBA’s Defensive Positioning Rules Actually Work”; and,
2. The specific defensive requirements dictated by each of the different Pick and Roll/Pop Scenarios which exist in today’s game …
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[for example]
* 1-5, 2-5, 3-5 and 4-5 Picks
* 1-4, 2-4, 3-4 and 5-4 Picks
* 1-3, 2-3, 4-3 and 5-3 Picks
Vs. Side Pick
- Zero offensive players located on the original ball side of the floor; and, three offensive players located on the weak side of the floor, one in the top, a second on the wing, and a third in the corner
- Zero offensive players located on the original ball side of the floor; and, three offensive players located on the weak side of the floor, one in the top, a second in the low post, and a third in the corner
Vs. Middle Pick
- One offensive player located on the original ball side of the floor, in the corner; and, two offensive players located on the weak side of the floor, one in the low post, the other in the corner
- One offensive player located on the original ball side of the floor, in the corner; and, two offensive players located on the weak side of the floor, one in the corner, the other on the wing/top
- Two offensive players located on the original ball side of the floor, one in the corner, and a second in the low post; and, one offensive player located on the weak side of the floor, in the wing/corner
Vs. High Middle Flat Pick Series
- One offensive player located in each corner and a third offensive player located on a wing
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… since the positioning of the offensive players on the floor is absolutely crucial when determining accurately how effective a specific defensive action can be, in return.
