khandor’s sports blog

If you’re a regular reader of this blog then you should already be quite familiar with the utmost level of R.E.S.P.E.C.T yours truly has for the best run organization in the NBA:

Kudos to Peter Holt, Gregg Popovich, RC Buford & Co. for:

- the discovery of Gary Neal [OG/SF]
- the decision to insert DeJuan Blair [PF] into the Starting Five beside Timmy D [C]
- the decision to stick with Richard Jefferson [SF] this past off season … and keep him in the 1st unit … when many other so-called NBA analysts were advising you to jettison him, asap
- the decision to stick with Tony Parker [PG] this past off season when many other so-called NBA analysts were advising you to trade him away in return for other assets in order to re-stock your cupboard for the future
- the decision to reduce the minutes allocated on a nightly basis to Timmy D [C], who remains one of the best players in the NBA
- the decision to use Manu Ginobili [OG/SF], as the Starting Off Guard
- the decision to keep George Hill [PG] in the 2nd unit, as the heir apparent to TP
- the decision to selection James Anderson [SF], as the Big 12 POY, with the No. 20 Selection in the 1st Round of the 2010 NBA Draft
- the decision to shift Matt Bonner [PF] to the 2nd unit, as the team’s top perimeter shooting Big Man
- the decision to shift Antonio McDyess [C] to the 2nd unit, as the team’s best mid-range shooting Big Man
- the decision to gradually add Tiago Splitter [C] into the mix this season, as a part-time role player who is going to be a very solid replacement for Timmy D down-the-road
- making the following list of player personnel decisions, in the month of November, which involved Garrett Temple, Alonzo Gee, Bobby Simmons, Danny Green, Ume Idoka and Chris Quinn

While other franchises in the NBA, either:

A. Languish forever in the lowest tier of the league;

or,

B. Are semi-permanetly entrenched in its middle tier, as a Treadmill Team;

… It is simply a joy to watch this outfit Go To Work! … 24-7-365.

According to Kevin Arnovitz and David Thorpe, Tim Duncan’s inability to defend the Phoenix Suns’ “1-5 Pick and Roll/Pop” series the same way he used to … when he was both younger and healthier … is a major source of the difficulty San Antonio is having in the early stages of San Antonio’s 2nd Round series in the Western Conference Playoffs.

Tim Duncan’s Decaying Pick-and-Roll Defense

Hmmm …

Is this actually the case, however?

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Q1. What is causing San Antonio the most difficulty, thus far, in their series with Phoenix?

A2. If you take a closer look at the following factual information …

Game 1 – Box Score, GameFlow

Game 2 – Box Score, Game Flow

What you should be able to see is that:

1. In Game 1

Antonio McDyess [-8] played 18:57 … and got 0:00 in the 4th quarter.
Matt Bonner [-7] played 13:28 … and got 0:00 in the 4th quarter.
Tim Duncan [-6] played 37:10 … and got 8:37 in the 4th quarter.

2. In Game 2

Antonio McDyess [+1] played 21:52 … and got 7.5 s in the 4th quarter.
Matt Bonner [0] played 15:00 … and got 44.7 s in the 4th quarter.
Tim Duncan [-6] played 39:20 … and got 9:31 in the 4th quarter.

3. In Game 1 …

With Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess on the floor together the Spurs played relatively even [i.e. -2] with the Suns.

With Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker on the floor together the Spurs were significantly better [i.e. +12] than the Suns.

4. In Game 2 …

With Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess on the floor together the Spurs played relatively even [i.e. +1] with the Suns.

With Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker on the floor together the Spurs were, again, slightly better [i.e. +3] than the Suns.

5. The major problem San Antonio is having in this series, so far, is NOT rooted in Tim Duncan’s less-than Herculian defense vs the Suns’ “1-5 Pick and Roll/Pop” series but, instead, in Gregg Popovich’s pig-headed INSISTANCE on:

A. ”Going small,” in the 4th quarter …

rather than using a conventional “2 Bigs + 3 Littles” alignment:

Option 1
Duncan and McDyess, or Duncan and Bonner, or Duncan and Mahinmi

Option 2
Blair and McDyess, or Blair and Bonner, or Blair and Mahinmi

Option 3
Duncan and Blair

Option 4
Blair and Mahinmi

… no matter what type of line-up Phoenix decides to employ;

and,

B. Using the Spurs 5 best players …

i.e. Parker + Ginobili + Jefferson + McDyess + Duncan

together, as a unit, for as little as 8:23 and 10:12, respectively, in Game 1 and 2.

While this corner has a tremendous degree of R.E.S.P.E.C.T. for Gregg Popovich … as one of the very best NBA coaches over the last 30+ years … the simple fact is that whenever he becomes stubborn in the Playoffs, and insists on going with a “small” line-up for large stretches of individual games, despite the presence of other legitimate [i.e. equal or superior] alternatives – where the specific match-ups would NOT be in his opponent’s favour by such a wide margin - the Spurs become little more than “just another average team” and are regularly eliminated from post-season competition much sooner than they need to be.

For the Spurs’ sake, let’s hope that Coach Pop checks his ego at the door for tonight’s game 3, takes a closer look at the specific individual match-ups on the floor, and decides to use a different approach than what he’s used to this point in this series … which has put Antonio McDyess’s rear end on the bench for the 4th quarters of Game 1 and 2.

If he does … then, you should expect San Antonio to triumph this evening.

If he does not, however … then, you should expect to see the Phoenix Suns playing in the Western Conference Finals.

Toronto Raptors 124
SAN ANTONIO SPURS 131
Mon Nov 09 2009, Game Scoreboard

Yes, indeed … the Spurs played without Tim Duncan and Tony Parker.

Yes, indeed … the Raptors shot 59.2% from the field.

But … if your team cannot DEFEND and REBOUND the ball effectively, or score efficiently, with the game on the line, in the 4th quarter …

Box Score

Crucial Play-By-Play Sequence [from 9:17 to 1:27]

Substitution Chart

Critical Factors

Critical Plays

… it really doesn’t matter very much, when it comes to winning and losing games against high calibre opponents in the NBA.

Instead of blaming the coaching staff, or individual players …

Matt Bonner drives in for the two-handed slam

Courtside – Without D, Raps are doomed

Raptors take one on the chin

as this season progresses, slowly but surely, important questions will need to be asked instead of the architect[s] responsible for [re-]constructing this year’s Raptors team hoping thinking that the current roster was going to be capable of Defending and Rebounding like a high end team in the NBA. 

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 7– @ San Antonio [Mon Nov 09]

The end of the first road trip won’t come soon enough for Toronto. Although there are likely going to be cross-match opportunities for the Raptors to exploit Bargnani’s perimeter skills vs The Big Fundamental this should be more than cancelled out on the other end of the floor when either TD or The Dyessman will get an opportunity to ply his trade vs Il Mago. Tony Parker, based on his combination of quickness and size, is one of only a handful of starting PG’s in the league [e.g. CP3 and Devin Harris] that present a truly difficult match-up situation for Jose Calderon. In general, the Spurs have too many weapons for the Raptors to contend with successfully. This is a very solid San Antonio team … with a slew of solid back-ups on their 15-man roster … that will be a legitimate threat to reach the WC Finals again this season. A major challenge for Jay Triano & Co., on the other hand, will involve how to avoid pointing an accusing finger towards their star player, Chris Bosh [in a contract year], while getting off to a slow start.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 2-5

For Raptors fans who think that the recent 4-team trade was in fact based on the commitment of MLSE to do what’s necessary to win a League Championship, one day in the not-too-distant future:

Colangelo still tinkering with Raptors roster
“You have to find a way to get the right pieces in this year and roll forward and keep below that luxury tax level,” Colangelo said. “It’s going to get tighter and it’s something to contend with.”

———-

you SHOULD seriously re-evaluate that specific line of thinking.

When you hear Bryan Colangelo speak next of DOING WHAT’S NECESSARY TO ACCOMPLISH THAT SPECIFIC GOAL, down-the-road, please feel free to notify yours truly [perhaps, via email] right away!

The Raptors’ GM … and chief representative of MLSE, on the hoops side of the operation … talks, repeatedly, about being “committed to building a winning team” BUT he NEVER EVER takes the NEXT STEP and mentions something about,

“Doing what’s necessary to actually have a legitimate shot at winning the League Championship.”

What’s the reason for this?

Does he actually know what this involves, in today’s NBA, regarding such things as: i. Basketball Philosophy, ii. Coaching Philosophy, iii. Player Personnel, and iv. The Financial Commitment Required [etc.]?

The teams that are “honestly” trying to WIN the Championship in the NBA, these days, know full well that in order to give themselves a “real” chance at accomplishing this goal, they are going to have to accept the fact that they will be paying The Luxury Tax … which is really Nothing More than the “current toll fare” … in return for The Right to be able to drive on that specific Super-Highway.

The highest level of competition possible is where the Big Boyz play and that’s the going freight just to ante into the game.

The San Antonio Spurs … located in a small-to-mid sized market, but with a 1st-class ownership group [expertly led by Peter Holt] and a Top Notch GM/Head Coach tandem  [i.e. RC Buford & Gregg Popovich] … are a prime example of a team that is now fully aware of this and, therefore, chose to act accordingly this off season … i.e. as you can plainly see from their recent decisions to:

* Retain their best 3 players [i.e. Time Duncan, Manu Ginobili & Tony Parker]

* Retain a veteran like Michael Finley

* Select 3 new players in the 2009 NBA Draft [i.e. DeJuan Blair, No. 37, Jack McClinton, No. 51, and Nando De Colo, No. 53] who are ready to compete right away

* Trade for Richard Jefferson [i.e. another high end player], and

* Sign Antonio McDyess [UFA]

While the Toronto Raptors, on the other hand … chose to go a different route, replete with a Magician’s Wand & Cloak, a rabbit, a head stand, a glass of bottled water, a still dry shirt – with an exceedingly high collar - and an accompanying 3-piece band of partners in crime.

There are just a few teams in this League that are legitimately trying to WIN It All [i.e. Category One] …

then, there’s Everybody Else [i.e. who can be further sub-divided into two additional specific Categories: Two. Those trying to field a highly "competitive" team, in the process of turning a profit, annually; and, Three. Those simply trying to survive in hopes of maybe turning a profit].

DO NOT MAKE THE MISTAKE OF THINKING THAT WHAT THE RAPTORS DID WITH THEIR PARTICIPATION IN THIS 4-TEAM TRADE WAS DESIGNED TO SHIFT THEM FROM CATEGORY TWO INTO CATEGORY ONE.

It was not; not by a long shot.

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Related:

Which franchise made out best from the 4-team trade?

There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:

Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.

In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.

So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.

———-

By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]

OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]

SMALL FORWARDS
* None

POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]

CENTERS
* Johan Petro [#4]

FINAL SCORE: RAPTORS 95, Pistons 99
Complete Game Info

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For the benefit of those who still, somehow, DO NOT comprehend that Center is Chris Bosh’s best position for the Toronto Raptors, when they’re playing against a legit High End Team …