khandor’s sports blog

Mo Williams?

Anthony Parker?

Daniel Gibson?

Despite what certain NBA observers might think …

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Thursday Bullets

John Hollinger (Insider): “In the backcourt, the biggest issue has been how to hide Mo Williams on defense. The best answer, it seems, is to just put him on Rajon Rondo and live with the consequences. Cleveland has lost three of four since switching the matchup so that Parker would guard Rondo, with Williams guarding Allen. While Rondo has had his way with Williams, this arrangement at least allows Parker to contain Allen. Since the empirical evidence suggests Parker can’t guard Rondo either, the Cavs really gain nothing from the switch.”

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The best individual match-up Cleveland has to go against Rajon Rondo, the stellar PG of the Celtics, isn’t any of these 3 players but …

     vs.  

… by a country mile.

The fact is that …

Delonte West:

1. Has the size and strength [i.e. at 6-3, 180] required to keep a strong PG like Rondo [6-1, 171] under control from a purely physical standpoint;

2. Is left-hand dominant [i.e. which puts his "strong" left hand on the same side of his body as Rondo's "strong" right hand, from a defensive perspective];

3. Has the type of:

i. Back-to-basket low-post offensive game;

ii. Passing/play-making ability;

iii. Scorer’s mentality; and,

iii. Ability to make enough perimeter shots;

to keep Rondo occupied on the defensive end of the floor … while making him work hard [i.e. expend energy] and, possibly, drawing him into foul difficulty.

Specifically, if you take a closer look at the GameFlow chart from Game 5, you should be able to see that Cleveland more than held its own against Boston when Delonte West was on the floor without Mo Williams playing beside him. 

[i.e. A main probelm for the Cavs in Game 5 was that Mike Brown chose to only use Mr. West for a grand total of 9 minutes, zero ("0") in the 2nd half.]

With last night’s 16th loss of the season …

Toronto Raptors 95
MIAMI HEAT 115
Game Summary

the most important question for the Toronto Raptors is:

Q1. Should this team, as constructed, be expected to improve substantially over the course of the next 55 games, or not?

A1. Well …

PART ONE

This is what the Eastern Conference standings look like today:

PART TWO

As of Fri Dec 11 2009, this is what the Strength Of Schedule [SOS] looked like for the teams in the East:

PART THREE

Looking at the injury situation for the Raptors and the other teams around them in the standings:

PART FOUR

For all practical intents and purposes:

PART FIVE

As has been said in this corner, since the 2009 NBA Draft took place …

when the Raptors chose not to trade down from the No. 9 position [overall], in an effort to re-invigorate their squad with:

* An additional NBA-calibre player obtained in a trade down

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, which could have been used to acquire an in-coming player like Brandon Jennings, or Terrence Williams, or Earl Clark, or Rodrigue Beaubois, or Taj Gibson

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have bought with their $3.0 M ‘draft voucher’ obtained in their trade with the Miami Heat, which they could have used to acquire a player like Taj Gibson, or DeJuan Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Sam Young, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

or

The upper 2nd Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, if a lower 1st Round Pick was not available, with which they could have acquired an in-coming player like DeJaun Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

and the decisons were made by Bryan Colangelo:

1 To not re-sign Shawn Marion for the dollar amount required to retain his services;

2 To not re-sign their own unrestricted free agents [i.e. Anthony Parker and Joey Graham];

3 To sign Jay Triano [then, interim head coach] to a 3-yr contract extension;

4 To complete the series of trades which then ensued with Orlando, Dallas, Golden State and Milwaukee, in effect, exchanging the following players on the team’s 2008-2009 roster with their corresponding counterparts [i.e. coded by colour] on the current version:

… that actually did little overall to substantially improve the Quality Depth on their team, despite what the fanbase was originally led to believe by the Raptors’ Management Team and assorted NBA “observers” who extolled the influx of supposed “talent” associated with these new additions to the roster …

this year’s Raptors team is no better than a number of other middle-of-the- pack outfits in the Eastern Conference and, in fact, should be expected to struggle to make the playoffs this season.

Those who thought/think that this edition of the Toronto Raptors has UNDER-ACHIEVED, to this point, this season …

were/are fundamentally INCORRECT.

This is precisely WHO and WHAT the Raptors are, and approximately WHERE the 2009-2010 version of their team SHOULD BE expected to finish this season, based on the personnel [i.e. players and coaches] on its roster.

Following last night’s deflating home loss to the Atlanta Hawks, the conference standings in the East look like this:

Prior to the 2009 NBA Draft, however, these were some of the players who were recommended in this space for the Toronto Raptors:

Terrence Williams [OG-SF, New Jersey, 1st Rd]
Earl Clark [SF-PF, Phoenix, 1st Rd]
Derrick Brown [SF-PF, Charlotte, 2nd Rd]
Taj Gibson [PF, Chicago, 1st Rd]
Dante Cunningham [PF, Portland, 2nd Rd]
Marcus Thornton [OG, New Orleans, via Miami, 2nd Rd]
Nando De Colo [OG-SF, San Antonio, 2nd Rd]

Prior to the 4-team trade that involved the Raptors, Magic, Mavericks and Grizzlies, it was also suggested here that Toronto should:

If the Raptors would have followed those recommendations, instead of:

culminating with a roster that looks like the middle column in the following chart:

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Yours truly thinks they would.

It’s by developing and then implementing a sound Basketball Philosophy … which emphasizes the importance of [I] Team Defense, [II] Rebounding, and [III] Shared Team Offense, in this order … maintaining general roster stability, from one season to the next, while acquiring Quality Depth, and obtaining the services of an experienced and successful NBA head coach, that the Raptors would be able to fundamentally alter the direction of their franchise and construct the type of championship-calibre organization which UFA’s like Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James, etc., would willingly CHOOSE to play for, if they have their druthers, either, this coming off season or further down-the-road.

Last season the Raptors finished 4th in the Atlantic Division and 13th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 33-49/402].

Offensively, they scored 99.0 Points Per Game [16th in the NBA].
Defensively, they allowed 101.9 Points Per Game [20th in the NBA].
In terms of Points Scored Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -2.9 [23rd in the NBA].  
In terms of Rebounding Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -1.5 [22nd in the NBA].

Thus far, this season, Toronto is:

* 2nd in the Atlantic Division and 10th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 7-11/.389];

* 4th in Points Scored Per Game [104.9]

* 29th in Points Allowed Per Game [109.4]

* 23rd in Points Scored Differential Per Game [-4.4]

* 20th in Rebounding Differential Per Game [-0.4] 

How much is the roster really improved for the 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors, compared with the 2008-2009 version?

The main problem the Raptors have right now is rooted in the Basketball Philosophy of its Management Team which continues to place far too much emphasis on the Individual Offensive ability of specific players and not nearly enough emphasis on those same players’ Individual Defensive ability.

Until the Raptors add more multi-dimensional players to their roster with the ability to defend their position[s] effectively AND reward those players with additional playing time during important parts of games, Toronto will continue to be little more than a high scoring [entertaining?] Treadmill Team.

There are many different ways to track the performance of an individual player, or specific combinations of players, in a NBA game.

When you do this work, what you find, somteimes, can be most revealing.

This is what the “Substitution Chart” looks like for Wednesday’s game between Toronto and Cleveland.

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It contains a fair amount of useful information, if you take the time to examine it in detail.

For example:

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There were, at least, 2 items from Wednesday’s victory that should be of some concern to the Raptors, heading towards this evening’s Game 2, vs Memphis:

1. The way that Bosh/Bargnani performed against the Cavs’ combinations of PF/C’s not named O’Neal/Ilgauskas or Varejao/O’Neal;

and,

2. The 39:44 played by Chris Bosh … in a game where the Raptors had a 21 point lead just prior to half-time … with a brace on his right knee for precautionary reasons.

Something to keep your eyes on as Toronto makes its way through the first 20 games of its regular season schedule.

Cleveland 91
TORONTO 101
Game Scoreboard

Keys to Victory for the Raptors

1st QUARTER

* Got off to a quick start on the strength of the individual match-up advantage held by Andrea Bargnani [13 pts, superior quickness] over Shaquille O’Neal [6 pts]; TOR 27, Cle 22

2nd QUARTER

* Built a 21 point lead [00:32.9, 57-36], shooting 10-17 [58.8/FG%] while limiting their opponent to 6-22 [27.2/FG%]; TOR 57, Cle 39

3rd QUARTER

* After Cleveland completely erased the deficit by the 2:22 mark [69-69], closed the period with a 7-0 run of their own, keyed by an offensive rebound putback from Chris Bosh [2:04, 71-69]; TOR 78, Cle 71]

4th QUARTER

* Took advantage of a questionable coaching decision by Mike Brown, who inexplicably elected to open the frame by going “Big” [i.e. O'Neal and Ilgauskas vs Bargnani and Bosh], which resulted in a 9-3 run by the Raptors to start the the quarter [10:15, 87-74] 

* Hung on gamely down the stretch, despite Cleveland cutting the margin to just 6 points [1:37]

OVERALL

Effectively used multiple pairings of Bigs:

PF AND C, +/-
Bosh and Bargnani, +12
Bosh and Nesterovic, +3
Johnson and Bargnani, +3
Turkoglu and Johnson, +2
Bargnani and Nesterovic, +2
Johnson and Bosh, + 1
Turkoglu and Nesterovic, 0
Wright and Nesterovic, 0 
Turkoglu and Bosh, -3
Wright and Bargnani, -3
Turkoglu and Bosh, -7

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The Cavaliers will need to find a way to neutralize the Raptors superior quickness at the PF and Center positions. If not, Toronto will present a match-up problem for Cleveland each time they meet this season. Going “Big” is not an option for the Cavs this season, with their present roster, unless Mike Brown wants to find himself in the unemployment line lickady-split.

Despite the uneven nature of their play, Toronto has to be ecstatic with this W. The first 20 games on their schedule is filled with quality opponents. To be able to withstand a 3rd quarter push from a team like Cleveland is a positive sign that the Raptors just might be able to navigate this stretch of games in a way that will allow them to remain in contention for a playoff spot throughout the season.

When the bell finally tolls …

Statistics do a number on Raptors
An illustration: when Parker, Bosh and Jose Calderon were on the court together without Bargnani last year, they played nine points above average. With Bargnani thrown into the mix, they dropped to four points below average.

“I can’t explain why that is, but it is a dramatic swing,” Winston says. “This is concrete evidence that he isn’t helping the team. It’s important that they know that if he plays a lot of minutes and does not improve, they’ll win fewer games.”

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As regular readers of this space can attest, this is an observation which was made, repeatedly, by yours truly throughout the 2008-2009 season … and going even further back than that … based on Basketball Acumen, specific situational stats and Possession Outcome Charts, to the consternation of some Raptors fans obsessed with an individual player’s seasonal ”game stat averages” [i.e. basic and advanced] and/or drunk on the Kool-Aid distributed by the organization.

At the end of the day …

1. Those being truly ‘objective’ in their analysis and criticism of the Raptors and Andrea Bargnani have correctly identified his individual ’strengths and weaknesses’ and his ‘negative effect’ on the performance of the team, on the whole.

2. This year’s final EC standings are going to be very tight between the No. 6 and No. 12 positions and, although the Raptors should be in the mix the entire way, there is little indication to this point that they will be a better team than Atlanta, Washington, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, Charlotte, New York and Indiana … following the Big 3 of Boston, Cleveland and Orlando.

3. “The proof of the pudding is in the eating.”  - Anonymous

Finally … a stats guru speaks who is at least on the right track.

How stats apply to individual match-ups for elite level NBA coaches
WW: Tracy McGrady is a player who has never helped his team as much as people thought. Allen Iverson — for one or two years he was really good.

The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.

Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.

(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)

There’s a bunch of guys like that.

Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)

Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.

HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t. 

WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.

But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.

It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.

If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.

Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright.  He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible. 

Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.

Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.

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THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.

Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!

PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play?  Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.

PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.