khandor’s sports blog

Approximately 5 years ago a certain individual in the basketball community made known his perception that the  No. 1 Selection of the 2006 NBA Draft [i.e. Andrea Bargnani, C] would eventually fail to develop into a highly effective player for the Toronto Raptors. Unfortunately, when this perception was stated publicly many others in the on-line hoops community rejected it … because it was not supported at the time by some sort of so-called “legitimate proof”.

Well …

Just Desserts: Overpaid & Underpaid Remix

this no longer seems to be the case.

The fact is …

There is little skill involved with making summary judgments about a specific player’s ability, based on an “after-the-fact analysis of his individual performance statistics”, according to an already established metric.

That is what is commonly referred to as simplistic “paint-by-the-numbers” arithmetic, and involves no creation of “added value.”

In sharp contrast, being able to project correctly when something [or someone] is unlikely to develop at the rate others expect it to, or to the level others expect it to, or is likely to develop to a level beyond what most others expect it to, is a skill which generates a substantial amount of “added value.”

Those GMs in the NBA who need to wait to see what the “statistical analysis” says about a player’s actual ability level, in comparison with his peers, will almost always be operating at a competitive disadvantage … in effect, making personnel decisions once the proverbial cow has already left the barn with every GM in the league having access to the same information about a specific player, good, bad or indifferent.

When a team finds itself in this situation, it usually fits into “the loser” category, relative to its competition, as far as personnel decisions are concerned [e.g. drafting, making trades, and signing free agents].

See the bolded “Blog Name” and italicized “Response” in the chart below for new additions from the TrueHoop Network team blogs that were unable to respond initially:

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Last week, in this space, the following question was asked:

“What is Andrea Bargnani [C] really worth, on the open market?”

Well …

One week later, according to the TrueHoop Network:

[and, unfortunately, for Raptors fans]

SUMMARY:

The TrueHoop Network does not perceive Mr. Bargnani to be a very valuable asset.

As the summer of 2011 continues to unfold, it will be very interesting, indeed, to see if this same opinion is shared by the other 29 GMs in the NBA … or, if, at least, 1 of them will think that acquiring Bargnani could help their team going forward.

Last week, in this space, the following question was asked:

“What is Andrea Bargnani [C] really worth, on the open market?”

Well …

One week later, according to the TrueHoop Network:

[and, unfortunately, for Raptors fans]

SUMMARY:

The TrueHoop Network does not perceive Mr. Bargnani to be a very valuable asset.

As the summer of 2011 continues to unfold, it will be very interesting, indeed, to see if this same opinion is shared by the other 29 GMs in the NBA … or, if, at least, 1 of them will think that acquiring Bargnani could help their team going forward.

Okay.

The intent of this blog entry is simple:

To solicit from others what it is THEY believe is THE VERY BEST package of assets which the Raptors could, possibly, acquire in return for Andrea Bargnani, if Toronto was to actually openly “shop him” across the league, in advance of the 2011 NBA Draft?

Here’s what you need to do, in order to participate:

PART I

Identify the team you believe would be willing to make a trade withh Toronto;

e.g. Minnesota Timberwolves

PART II

Identify the specific asset[s] which you believe this other team would be willing to part with, in return for receiving only Andrea Bargnani from the Raptors. 

e.g. Martell Webster + 2011/No. 2 [overall] Selection

PART III

Identify the rationale which you believe this other team would put forth for being willing to make this trade, in the first place.

e.g. Minnesota needs a 2nd option scoring Big Man to play beside Kevin Love who can more than compensate for Bargnani’s deficiency as a rebounder; while the T-Wolves have an excess of Off Guards.

Please feel free to provide your suggestion in the comments section.

For those who like to cite the work of stats gurus:

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What if your team Lost its Leading Scorer?

In reading the table, negative numbers in the last column indicate the team will be worse without their leading scorer.  For 19 teams, this is the outcome indicated by Wins Produced.  And for four teams – Memphis (Zach Randolph is the leading scorer), Miami, Orlando, and Minnesota – the decline if the leading scorer was replaced by an average player is more than ten games.

The exact opposite story is told for the Toronto Raptors.  If Andrea Bargnani was replaced by an average player, the Raptors would be expected to improve by more than ten wins.

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Until the Raptors’ management team [i.e. Bryan Colangelo, Maurizio Gherardini and Marc Eversley, etc.] truly understands the negative ramifications of having a player like Andrea Bargnani [C], as their franchise-best, everything else – e.g. Where Toronto will select in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery? Or, Who should be Toronto’s head coach? Or, Who should be Toronto’s starting PG? etc. – is virtually meaningless.

At the end of the 2008-2009 regular season, the main pieces for the Raptors and the Bulls, respectively, looked like this:

Toronto at Chicago [April 15, 2009]

When you then look at the main pieces for these same two teams when they played each other at the end of the 2009-2010 regular season, what you see is the following:

Chicago at Toronto [April 11, 2010]

When you then look at the main pieces for these same two teams when they played each other at the end of the just completed regular season, what you see is the following:

Toronto at Chicago [April 2, 2011]

Key differences and similarities?

1. Lead Executives, at the time:

2008-2009
CHICAGO, John Paxson
TORONTO, Bryan Colangelo and Maurizio Gherardini

2009-2010
CHICAGO, John Paxson and Gar Forman
TORONTO, Bryan Colangelo and Maurizio Gherardini

2010-2011
CHICAGO, John Paxson and Gar Forman
TORONTO, Bryan Colangelo and Maurizio Gherardini

2. Head Coaches, at the time:

2008-2009
CHICAGO, Vinnie Del Negro
TORONTO, Jay Triano

2009-2010
CHICAGO, Vinnie Del Negro
TORONTO, Jay Triano

2010-2011
CHICAGO, Tom Thibodeau
TORONTO, Jay Triano

3. Key Players, at the time:

2008-2009
CHICAGO
Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng [DNP-injury], Ben Gordon, John Salmons, Tyrus Thomas, Kirk Hinrich, Brad Miller and Tim Thomas

TORONTO
Chris Bosh, Shawn Marion, Jose Calderon, Anthony Parker and Andrea Bargnani [DNP-injury]

2009-2010
CHICAGO
Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Kirk Hinrich and Brad Miller

TORONTO
Chris Bosh [DNP-injury], Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu, Amir Johnson, Sonny Weems, DeMar DeRozan and Reggie Evans

2010-2011
CHICAGO
Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Carlos Boozer, CJ Watson, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, Kurt Thomas, Omir Asik and Rasual Butler

TORONTO
Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani, DeMar DeRozan, Amir Johnson, Ed Davis, Jerryd Bayless, James Johnson, Leandro Barbosa, Sonny Weems, Linas Kleiza and Reggie Evans

4. Won-Loss Records, at the time

2008-2009
CHICAGO, 41-41
TORONTO, 33-49

2009-2010
CHICAGO, 39-41 [similar]
TORONTO, 38-42 [slightly better]

2010-2011
CHICAGO, 56-20 [significantly better]
TORONTO, 20-55 [significantly worse]

Since their introduction to the NBA, 16 years ago, what the Toronto Raptors have displayed is: [1] A remarkable inability to hold onto their “best” players from previous seasons who have solid upside and were actually selected by the team in the annual Draft; and, [2] A disturbing penchant for selecting the “wrong” players in the annual Draft who have limited upside and then remain fixtures with the team for far too many years without becoming very productive overall … unlike the Chicago Bulls.

Until the Raptors properly address the deficiencies which exist for their franchise at the Executive level, the Head Coach level, and the Marquee Player level, what position they select in any given NBA Draft Lottery is quite immaterial … if the long term goal is eventually being able to win a League Championship.

Kudos to the Raptors’ head coach for the dignified way he handled himself during today’s proceedings at the ACC.

Jay Triano’s End of Season Press Conference:

Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV
Part V

It is going to be very interesting indeed to hear what Bryan Colangelo will have to say … concerning such topics as:

i. His own contract status beyond June 30, 2011;

ii. Andrea Bargnani’s future role with the Raptors;

iii. The Raptors’ current ranking as the worst defensive team in the NBA;

iv. Jay Triano’s contract status beyond June 30, 2011;

and,

v. The opportunity to use the rest of the TPE – obtained in the Chris Bosh trade with Miami - which is set to expire later this summer 

… during his own end-of-season press conference on Monday, April 18, considering the team’s W-L results for the last 5+ seasons:

Orlando Magic 98
TORONTO RAPTORS 102
Complete Game Summary

From a Raptors’ perspective …

What you should be able to take away from yesterday’s home-court victory:

- Toronto was more efficient than usual

On Defense
Orlando
Pts/98; Poss/95 [i.e. FGA/78, TO/8, and FFTA/12]; Pts/Poss = 1.032

On Offense
TORONTO
Pts/102; Poss/98 [i.e. FGA/79, TO/10 and FFTA/9]; Pts/Poss = 1.041  

Toronto’s PSPP-Diff [i.e. Points Scored Per Possession Differential]

To-date: -0.063 [i.e. Off. = 0.923; Def. = 0.986]
Yesterday: +0.009 [i.e. Off. = 1.041 (+0.118); Def. = 1.032 (-0.046)] 

In Rebounding
Orl: O-Reb/7, D-Reb/23 and T-Reb/30
TOR: O-Reb/15, D-Reb/33 and T-Reb/48

- Toronto played without Andrea Bargnani [C, Starter] … whose production was MORE THAN compensated for, collectively, by the work of Ed Davis [i.e. as the Starter], Reggie Evans [i.e. as the primary Back-up] and Joey Dorsey [i.e. as the secondary Back-up]

- Toronto played without Jose Calderon [PG, Starter] … whose production was equalized by Jerryd Bayless, as a capable temporary replacement in this role

- Toronto played without Jerry Bayless [PG, Back-up] … whose production was MORE THAN compensated for, individually, by the work of Leandro Barbosa who is a “best fit”, in the NBA, as a primary ‘change-of-pace’ Back-up PG, not a Back-up Combo Guard off the bench

- Orlando played without JJ Redick [OG], Gilbert Arenas [PG] and Chris Duhon [PG] … which meant they had NO legitimate Back-up PG in their line-up last night and were forced to use a combination of Richardson/Q  [+6] and Richardson/J [-19] in this crucial role, since they only used 8 players [i.e. including Allen/M and Anderson/R, as their 2 Bigs off the bench]

- Toronto is a favourite destination for visiting NBA players

- Toronto competed more aggressively throughout the game, and with an elevated level of Collective Determination because they did NOT have to “carry” a relatively weak Team Defender/Rebounder, who usually logs 35+ minutes at the crucial Center position

- Toronto marginally decreased its likelihood of earning as high a selection as possible in the 2011 NBA Drafft Lottery, by winning rather than losing this game … which is a sacrifice that should be MORE THAN compensated for, if the Raptors can learn the difficult lessons they NEED to learn from playing without the former No. 1 [overall] Selection in the 2006 NBA Draft Lottery and develop a Team Culture which is based on Hard Work, Defense, Rebounding and Shared Team Offense

If/when Bryan Colangelo [President/GM] realizes that the following regular rotation:

STARTERS
PG, Jose Calderon [who is more efficient, on Offense, than Jerryd Bayless]
OG, DeMar DeRozan
SF, James Johnson
PF, Amir Johnson
PF, Ed Davis

KEY SUBS
PG, Leandro Barbosa [who is a very good back-up at this position]
OG, Sonny Weems [who is a solid back-up]
SF, Linas Kleiza [who is a solid back-up]
PF, Reggie Evans [who is a solid back-up]
C, Whomever is obtained in a trade for Andrea Bargnani [or Alexis Ajinca]

RESERVES/EXTRAS/OUTS
PG, Veteran UFA [i.e. signed to a minimum contract this summer]
SF, Julian Wright [who is an easy cut to make this summer, if necessary]
PF/C, Joey Dorsey [who is an easy cut to make this summer, if necessary]
C, Solomon Alabi [who is an easy cut to make this summer, if necessary]
C, Alexis Ajinca [or whomever is obtained in a trade for Andrea Bargnani]

ADDITIONAL ASSETS
- Whomever is obtained in a trade for Jerryd Bayless [PG/OG, who is highly marketable this summer]
- 2011 NBA Draft Lottery Selection

is the best possible scenario for the Raptors, going forward from this point, then this franchise will at long last be heading in a right direction.

According to the individual player stats available at ESPN.com, these are the Top Centers, in the NBA this season, sorted by:

Points Scored Per Game

Question
How bad does Andrea Bargnani really have to be, in terms of:

1. Rebounds;
2. Blocked shots;
3. Steals;
4. Personal Fouls; and,
5. Turnovers;

in order to NOT qualify as one of the best Centers in the game today, given that he is actually the 2nd leading scorer in the entire league at this position?

Answer
Exceptionally bad.

Rebounds, No. 20
Blocked Shots, No. 23
Steals, No. 13
Personal Fouls, No. 28
Turnovers, No. 29

From a long term perspective for the Raptors … after almost 5 full seasons in the NBA … it is truly unfortunate that the No. 1 [overall] Selection from the 2006 NBA Draft Lottery is still nowhere close to being a Top Center in the league:

1. Dwight Howard
2. Tim Duncan
3. Pau Gasol
4. Chris Bosh [should be listed as a Center, not a PF]
5. Nene
6. Joakim Noah [non-qualifier/games missed due injury]
7. Al Horford
8. Amare Stoudemire [should be listed as a Center, not a PF]
9. Andrew Bynum [non-qualifier/games missed due to injury]
10. Emeka Okafor
11. Brook Lopez
12. Marc Gasol
13. Marcin Gortat
14. Tyson Chandler
15. DeAndre Jordan
16. Al Jefferson
17. Roy Hibbert
18. Jason Thompson

when considering the most important aspects of the game and not just scoring.

When Raptors need it most, Bargnani, DeRozan don’t step up

As the franchise moved forward in the wake of Chris Bosh’s departure, it was felt more players would get more touches in late-game sequences, a time when opponents couldn’t just lock in on one player when a variety of options would be considered.

But as Toronto’s lost season draws to its merciful end, conclusions can be drawn and it doesn’t exactly paint a pretty picture.

What must be understood is that both Bargnani and DeRozan are merely pieces, best suited as second and third options.

And unless the Raptors can somehow acquire a bona fide go-to guy this off-season, there will be more crushing nights and more reflection on missed opportunities.

In the NBA, at the end of the day it’s a game of stars.

At the end of games, stars are asked to make plays.

What the Raptors don’t have is a star.

At times, players have stepped up and games have been more winnable, but all one requires is a glance at the standings and there in black and white for all to see is Toronto’s 20-51 record and third straight season without a playoff appearance, a fate that became official when Indiana beat Charlotte well before the Suns subdued the Raptors 114-106.

“This league has been about your main guys making plays down the stretch,” said head coach Jay Triano, who has somehow managed to keep his sanity. “I think that’s what has to happen.

“Yes, you have to execute. And yes, you have to be sound defensively, but it takes star players to step up and make good plays.”

In Phoenix, Bargnani would lead all scorers with 27, but when it mattered most he was able to get off five shots in the fourth quarter, making just one.

Bargnani played eight fourthquar ter minutes, but didn’t take a shot until four minutes remained.

He wasn’t even a factor on the glass, getting outrebounded by Steve Nash, who produced only one board.

When Phoenix went into a two-three zone, DeRozan tried to attack it by going strong to the rim, only to have his attempt rejected by Marcin Gortat.

When the Raptors needed their two best players to step up, neither could as Bargnani and DeRozan went a combined 3-of-10 from the field in the final period.

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Kudos to Frank! … for hitting this one flush on the head.