khandor’s sports blog

Sebastian Pruiti does a good job breaking down specific NBA action with his blog, NBAPlaybook.com.

Although it’s taken a while to get to this specific piece of analysis …

Here’s the contribution from yours truly, regarding how the Raptors lost their game earlier this week against the LA Lakers, on yet another clutch jump shot by Black Mamba:

How the Lakers free up Kobe 

[comment #18, in this thread]

These are the 2 most recent articles penned by Dave Feschuk, Toronto Star Sports Columnist, concerning the current plight of the Raptors:

Kings embarrass slumping Raptors 113-90 [Thu Mar 11 2010]

… the Raptors lost their seventh game in eight, 113-90, with a woefully heartless performance against a team they should have defeated.

Outscored by an astounding 43-23 in a listless third quarter that saw Toronto’s five-point halftime lead turn into a deep hole, the Raptors never recovered.

“We got very selfish,” said Jay Triano, the Toronto coach. “We had guys come down, take a shot, and I guess other guys are not happy because they don’t touch the ball. We miss the shot, it gets rebounded, and it’s fast-break points. And it’s a 10-0 run before you know it. And we cave after that.

[#1]“It’s part of the resolve we need to have. When a team goes on a run, we need to be able to come back and snuff it out by scoring points.”

A night after the Toronto locker room spoke of being encouraged by its feat of holding the defending champion Lakers to 45% field-goal shooting, albeit in a 109-107 loss, the Toronto defence laid down to allow the home team to shoot a remarkable 75% in the third frame, and 51% for the game. In those 12 minutes after halftime, a game was turned on its head. [#2] While Toronto had owned the trenches in the first half, outscoring Sacramento 32-22 down low at halftime, the Kings drove the lane and ran the floor without resistance in the third quarter, scoring 24 points in the paint to Toronto’s 4 while out-rebounding Toronto 13-4.

“Our body language at the start of the second half wasn’t very good. They came out and they went on a run … We never were able to get back into a groove after that,” said Antoine Wright, the reserve swingman. [#3] “That’s when the selfish play came in. Guys started holding onto the ball a little bit longer. I’m guilty of it as well as everybody else.”

Indeed, with two of Toronto’s top three point producers, Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu, continuing to struggle in the wake of respective ankle injuries, Toronto’s offence — a stagnant, selfish concoction that managed just 15 assists on Wednesday — couldn’t compensate for the deficiencies. [#4] Bosh was limited to 14 points on 6-for-20 shooting. Turkoglu was even worse, making just 2 of his 8 shots for 6 points.

“I would love to come in and play the ball I was playing before I turned my ankle. But it’s not like that,” said Bosh. “I’m trying to get back into the same mode I was in. It’s hard right now. I’m going to get there soon. We’re just at a tough stretch right now.

“It’s just getting a feel for the game. [#5] I missed a lot of easy shots today, shots I feel I should make, especially 15 feet and in. I can’t say much about that. They just went out. I don’t get too down about it. I know those shots are going to be there. There’s still plenty of basketball left to play. I just have to step up and make sure I play some decent defence and get some rebounds, and I can help this team out a lot more.”

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Lapses leave Raptors coach to make tough choices [Fri Mar 12 2010]

… there is clearly much more to Toronto’s poor play than a rusty return by Bosh and the comatose Hedo Turkoglu. And certainly, at the very least, there is this: [#6] Triano is employing a flabby rotation that continues to tolerate repeated lapses from unfocused players who would be, under a less sympathetic coach, riding the pine.

“You’ve got to take away some of the freedom around here, what guys have,” said Wright, offering the coaching staff some unsolicited advice. “(The players’) leash is not going to be as loose as it’s been. If you’re not doing what (the team) needs you to do, you’re going to have to come out of the game. That’s the only way to address (the situation) right now at this point in the season.”

[#7] Wright’s agenda has been no secret from the beginning of training camp, when he began lobbying for the spot in the starting lineup still occupied by rookie DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan has long been underperforming on defence, where he is known for a wandering attention to detail. (Go figure that he was the only Raptor to play all 12 minutes of Wednesday’s disastrous third quarter, wherein the Kings shot an astounding 75 per cent from the field and outscored Toronto by a season-high spread 43-23.) [#8] So as shameless as his campaigning has been, inserting Wright into the first five is perhaps the simplest way to jostle the Raptors out of their current slumber.

But long-time NBA observers might also humbly suggest that Triano might think about making some additional hard choices, and soon, specifically by [#9a] paring down the rotation as the regular season’s 19-game home stretch continues Saturday and Sunday at Golden State and Portland. Amir Johnson and Reggie Evans, for instance, have been largely splitting minutes as the off-the-bench energy guy. [#9b] Neither has been particularly effective and Evans has been downright sullen occupying half a role.

[#9c] There’s a glut of reserve twos and threes in Wright, Marco Belinelli, Sonny Weems and, occasionally, Jose Calderon, most of whom can never be sure when and how long he’ll play on any given night.

[#9d] Conventional NBA wisdom says a lack of role definition is bad for morale. And even if that concern is sometimes overblown – these guys should be adaptable – there’s evidence it’s not helping here.

Triano spoke of seeing players pouting Wednesday and he linked the discontent to poor shot selection and a lack of ball movement. Jarrett Jack, the starting point guard, took issue with Triano’s view of the situation – pointing out that what is being construed as selfish play is simply the execution of Triano’s long-stated philosophy that every player should, as his first option, look to score.

“I don’t think guys were selfish. Obviously we encourage people to take shots when they think they have ‘em,” Jack said. “Maybe coach can elaborate on it if that’s what he saw. I didn’t see it that way.”

[#10a] So the hung heads and poor body language, if you read between the lines of the locker-room murmuring, aren’t simply a product of Bosh and Turkoglu forcing the offence. They’re also related to uneven, unpredictable playing time – not to mention the lack of repercussions for the slew of missed defensive assignments racked up by players like DeRozan and Andrea Bargnani on most nights.

Suddenly the conscientious few among the Raptors, calculating that conscientiousness isn’t being rewarded, are taking possessions off. With Toronto one game clear of ninth place, Triano doesn’t have much time to sooth their burn.

[10b] Said Wright: “That’s what our coaching staff is paid for.”

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Here’s the take from this corner.

#1. When an opponent goes on a run the proper way to snuff it out isn’t by just “scoring points,” in return.

The proper way is by:

I. Getting stops on defense.
II. Getting the Defensive Rebound or creating a Turnover.
III. Scoring with an interior basket [either, in transition or the half-court] or from a free throw.  

Until the Raptors organization clearly/fully understands this distinction they are going nowhere fast.

#2. This reality clearly illustrates the importance of:

I. Trench warfare, as a general concept.
II. Getting/stopping easy baskets [i.e. layups] scored in transition situations.
III. Getting/stopping interior baskets [i.e. scores in the paint] and free throws. 
IV. Generating a high percentage of low percentage scoring opportunities for the opponent.
V. Getting a high percentage of available Defensive Rebounds.

Fail to do these things well and your team will lose.

#3. Selfish play, at any level of basketball, is a TEAM killer.

#4. Their 2 best players were a combined 8 for 28 [28.6%] from the field.

When your 2 best players under-perform, on offense, you are going to lose.

#5. When your 2 best players under-perform, on offense, it is often the case that they have not been placed in the proper individual match-up situations, positionally, in order to allow them to operate at their maximum level of efficiency, in terms of offense, defense and rebounding.

This is when seemingly “easy” scoring opportunities are inexplicably “missed” and seemingly “over-matched” individual checks exceed their customary levels of production.

For prime examples in this game, see [A] Chris Bosh vs Carl Landry [i.e. under-sized and too quick for CB4 to dominate], and [B] Hedo Turkoglu vs Donta Greene or Omri Casspi [i.e. too quick and athletic for Turk to handle].

#6. Play more than 8 [or 9, at the most] players in your regular rotation and your team will lose.

#7. Have individual players in your regular rotation with an “agenda” of their own and your team will lose.

#8. The easiest way to solve the Raptors’ deficiencies in attention to detail, re: consistent defensive/rebounding execution, is to remove Andrea Bargnani from their Starting Unit.

As a general principle …

1st unit players should be primarily defensive oriented, with the possible exception of the Point Guard or Off Guard positions.

2nd unit players, on the other hand, can be primarily offensive oriented.

At this point:

- Bargnani is an offensive oriented player, who fits best with the 2nd unit
- Johnson is a defensive oriented player, who fits best with the 1st unit
- DeRozan is neither an offensive nor a defensive oriented player, who should either [i] be used as a Starter or [ii] be removed from the regular rotation altogether.

#9a. An 8-player regular rotation is what’s needed, at this point.

STARTERS: PG + OG + SF + PF + C
KEY SUBS: PG + OG/SF + PF/C

This would provide the team with the highest possible level of GROUP COHESION.

#9b. Reggie Evans needs to be removed from the regular rotation.

There is no place for a “sullen” personality at this level of competition.

#9c. Sonny Weems needs to be used as the OG-SF off the bench.

He is the best combination wing player, who can provide offense, defense and rebounding, when coming off the bench. 

#10a. Mistakes in the composition of the regular rotation are the primary source of the team’s current list of problems. It is the responsiblity of the coaching staff to manage these matters better than they have to this point.

#10b. A muzzle needs to be put on Antoine Wright, and he needs to be completely removed from the regular rotation … or, at least, until he gets this message loudly and clearly.

Heading towards their 61st game of the regular season … this evening against the Los Angeles Lakers, at the Staples Center … the most productive players for the Toronto Raptors have been:

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LEGEND:

KPER = khandor’s Player Effeciency Rating [PTS - (FGA-FGM) - (FTA-FTM) + TReb + Ast + St + BS - TO - PF]

KPER/MP - khandor’s Player Efficiency Rating Per Minute Played 
———————————–

If the Raptors were to use their players in an 8-Man rotation which looks like this:

they would qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs without a great deal of difficulty.

The chief reason the Raptors have not used their players in the proper way … at least, thus far … this season is connected with the flawed Basketball Philosophy of their GM, Bryan Colangelo, who has consistently prioritized “offensively” skilled players, when constructing his teams in Phoenix and Toronto, rather than players with an abundance of “defensive and rebounding” skills.

Last night’s game between the Houston Rockets and the Toronto Raptors served as an interesting benchmark for the on-going development of these two teams.

Toronto Raptors 92
HOUSTON ROCKETS 116

Complete Game Summary 

At the moment:

Toronto is 31-28/.525, 2nd in the Atlantic Division, and 5th in the Eastern Conference; while, Houston is 30-29/.508, 3rd in the Southwest Division, and 9th in the Western Conference.

Both teams played last night’s game without several key players in their respective line-ups, due to a variety of physical ailments/injuries:

Toronto
1. Chris Bosh/PF-C, leg injury [day-to-day] 
2. Jose Calderon/PG, arm injury [day-to-day]
3. Hedo Turkoglu/SF, leg injury [incurred last night]

Houston
1. Yao Ming/C, foot injury [expected to return next season]
2. Kyle Lowry/PG, leg injury [day-to-day]
3. Trevor Ariza/SF, hip injury [day-to-day]

Examining the complete rosters for each team:

is an interesting exercise when considering:

i. Chris Bosh/PF-C becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer;

ii. Chris Bosh is originally from Dallas, Texas;

iii. The relative “NBA talent” base on these two rosters;

iv. The “playoff prospects” for these two teams:

A. This season, and
B. Beyond the current season. 

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These are the highlights for last night’s RAPTORS vs 76ers game …

the Recap, Boxscore and Full Play-By-Play.

This is what was written about it earlier this morning by Kelly Dwyer, in his summary of last night’s action across the Association:

Behind the Box Score, where the Clippers don’t care

The Raptors allowed Philly’s D to turn this into a somewhat competitive affair late, but Chris Bosh’s 23 and 12 led Toronto to the win.

only proving, yet again, that …

“To err [really] is human; and, to forgive [really] is divine.”
- Alexander Pope

Please take a closer look at the following exerpts from the actual play-by-play:

PART ONE – Where the 76ers began the 4^th down by only 13 points, after once trailing by 23

PART TWO – Where the 76ers had cut the deficit to just 7 points with 6 minutes left to play

PART THREE – Where the 76ers tied the game on consecutive driving layups with 2 min remaining

PART FOUR – Where Jose Calderon made an exceptionally rare 4 POINT PLAY and Bargnani
then made a 3, to put TOR ahead by 3 possessions with only 41.9 ticks left; and, then, PHI miss-fired

on their 3 next possessions to seal their fate

PART FIVE – Where Bargnani converted 2 FTA’s to seal the deal for TOR

and, then, try to suggest … at least, with a straight face … that last night’s game SHOULD actually have been described as being just “a somewhat competitive affair late.”

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A quick review of the facts would seem to indicate otherwise, as …

* For the most part, this was a game of runs, which saw:

- the 1st quarter played almost evenly … until a late surge by the Raptors opened up a 6 point working margin [fuelled by the insertion of Jose Calderon/PG and Amir Johnson/PF, at the 2:27 mark; which produced 5 consecutive possessions where El Matador registered 4 straight assists plus 1 version of his now prototypical "stretch layup"], i.e. TOR 30, Phi 24 

- the 2nd quarter played almost evenly, i.e. TOR 20, Phi 17

- the first 9 minutes of the 3rd quarter dominated by the Raptors, i.e. TOR 26, Phi 12

- the last 3 minutes of the 3rd quarter dominated by the 76ers, i.e. TOR 2, Phi 10

- the first 10 minutes of the 4th quarter dominated by the 76ers, i.e. TOR 15, Phi 30

and, finally,

- the final 2 minutes of the 4th quarter dominated by the Raptors, again, i.e. TOR 11, Phi 0.

———————————————

In general, a NBA game tied with only 2 minutes left to play is not what yours truly would describe as being just a “somewhat competitive affair late.”

Sincere kudos to both …

I. The 76ers [in this game]:

* For battling back from a 23 point deficit, in the 3rd quarter, in a valiant effort to sustain their relatively modest 5-game winning streak, achieved while playing without Allen Iverson … rather than simply giving up, which is, unfortunately, exactly what happens far too frequently - usually on the road - in the NBA [i.e. Exhibit A, see the Clippers];

and,

II. The Raptors [in this game]:

* For opening up a 23 point lead during the 3rd quarter, in the first place, despite playing without the services of Hedo Turkoglu/SF;

* Weathering the subsequent Philly storm-back … i.e. in the latter stages of the 3rd quarter, when the 76ers finally righted their badly listing ship, and through the first 3/4’s of the final frame when they firmly “took it” to Toronto; and,

* Closing the deal, at crunch time.

Toronto is currently in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division, and in 5th place [overall] in the Eastern Conference standings, with a 26-23/.531 W-L record.

After starting out 7-13/.350, with a difficult road-heavy schedule, the Raptors have since played 19-10/.655 basketball, with an easier predominently home-based schedule, that has effectively balanced out their season to-date.

If the Raptors can now manage to play .531 basketball for the remainder of the campaign they will finish with an overall mark of 43-39, or 44-38, which should then be good enough to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs and earn a mid-level seed [i.e. #5 or #6].

In a 1st Round playoff series of this type the Raptors would then be most likely to face one of:

1. The Atlanta Hawks/#4, who were eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers [i.e. 2006-2007 NBA Finalists] last season [in the 2nd Round] and the Boston Celtics 2 seasons ago [in Game 7 of the 1st Round];

2. The Boston Celtics/#3, who were 2007-2008 NBA Champions; or,

3. The Orlando Magic/#2, who were 2008-2009 NBA Finalists;

each of which is a team with more experience than Toronto, having qualified for the post-season elimination tournament for the last two seasons.

If the Raptors are indeed able to compete successfully in this type of series … by winning at least 2 [or, possibly, 3] games … the challenge they would then face, in the off season, is trying to re-sign their best player, Chris Bosh, who is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent this summer [July 1, 2010].

The NBA’s in-season trade deadline is now two weeks away [Feb 19], and the most important question on the minds of Raptors fans is:

QUESTION

Should Toronto make a trade, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to further improve their team right now, in hopes of being able to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring and, in the process, demonstrate to Chris Bosh that he will have a legitimate chance to compete for a league championship, in the immediate future, if he decides to renew his contract with the Raptors this off season, as a maximum salaried player? 

ANSWER

No, the Raptors should not make a trade of this sort, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring.

RATIONALE

Young teams like the Raptors need to be able to grow together, gradually, over an extended period of years, which involves taking 5 DISTINCT STEPS:

STEP 1. Learning how to make the playoffs, and then losing a 1st Round series;

STEP 2. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, advancing to the 2nd Round;

STEP 3. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making a key player acquisition, advancing to the Conference Finals;

STEP 4. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making another key player acquisition, advancing to the NBA Finals; and,

STEP 5. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, winning the NBA Championship. 

The Raptors’ current roster looks like this:

and is ”good enough”, as is, to compete successfully in a 1st Round playoff series this spring, if their GM and head coach can [i] create the proper atmosphere around their team, and [ii] use their resources effectively.

Stability is what the Raptors need most right now … and, to be able to find out exactly what they’ve got from their current group of players, when it comes to being battle-tested in a 1st Round playoff series against a veteran team like the Hawks, or the Celtics, or the Magic. 

What the Raptors do not need right now is increased Instability … in hopes of blithely skipping over Step 1 with this specific collection of players.

If Chris Bosh is actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.

If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to resign with Toronto, the Raptors will then be in a “good” position to attempt to take Step 2 next year, after making minor player acquisitions during this coming off season. 

3. If Chris Bosh is not actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is not the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.

If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to sign with another team, then, the Raptors will still be in an “okay” position … i.e. with his vacant salary slot … to once again try to accomplish Step 1, in the gradual process of building a legitimate contending team in this league, over a number of years.

The major problem with this specific scenario is that this is precisely where the team has been before, on more than one occasion, during the Raptors’ first 15 years of existence:

A. With Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady;

B. With Vince Carter and Chris Bosh;

C. With Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani;

and, subsequently,

D. With Andrea Bargnani and DeMar DeRozan; etc., etc., etc.

Each time the Raptors have gotten to this same point before …

they have somehow managed to !@#$%^&* it up, royally, by trying to ”Swing for the fences”, prematurely, and in hopes of skipping Steps along the way.

Hopefully they [i.e. MLSE, Bryan Colangelo, and Jay Triano] have finally learned their lesson and, this time, are finally able to exercise the type of sound basketball judgment it takes to eventually build a legitimate NBA championship contending team in Toronto.

——————————

For the Raptors …

It is time to batten down the hatches.

Let the current season play out.

Allow Chris Bosh to make his own call.

And, sail the ship forward, regardless, on a straight [and well-charted] course. 

In this world, it takes time, to build something truly worthwhile.

For the benefit of both Raptors and Heat fans:

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a highly entertaining game.

PS. Is there any doubt, however, that the Heat have the “coolest” [baby, baby, baby] roster web page in the NBA today?

For the benefit of both Raptors and Bucks fans:

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a very entertaining and close game.

Sometimes, and despite the best of intentions, what a person thinks s/he is seeing happen in a specific basketball game isn’t actually what is really [truly] happening at all.

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Raptor duo saying all the right things: Calderon and Jack content with their roles in point guard rotation, have faith in Triano

It has been common practice that Calderon and Jack have been, and will continue to be, on the floor down the stretch in tight games.

And Triano said Tuesday they will be joined by Hedo Turkoglu in some kind of three-headed point guard monster the coach likes to unleash.

“I like having three ball-handlers and they can all shoot the ball as well,” Triano said of his finishing group that also includes Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani.

“I don’t mind that. I don’t think it’s something we want to do on a steady basis throughout most of a game, but to finish games I want guys on the floor who can make free throws when we have a lead and who can make plays for each other and who can make shots.”

—————————

As long as the Raptors’ head coach insists on using the following Five-Man Unit:

Jose Calderon, PG
Jarrett Jack, PG 
Hedo Turkoglu, SF
Chris Bosh, PF
Andrea Bargnani, C

for important stretches … either, at the end of games, or at key points earlier in the match-up… the Raptors are going to continue to perform below their current Capacity For Excellence.

In spite of what Jay Triano may believe, winning closely-contested NBA games involves doing many more things than just:

1. Making Free Throws, on offense;
2. Making “plays” for one another, on offense; and,
3. Making shots [i.e. Field Goals], on offense.

and, includes, for example:

iv. Preventing “dribble penetration”;
v. Preventing “pass penetration”;
vii. “Contesting” each Field Goal Attempt;
viii. Committing Personal Fouls in a strategic way;
ix. Making steals;
x. Making deflections;
xi. Blocking shots;
xii. Recovering loose balls;
xiii. Executing a range of different Strategies and Tactics, on defense;
xiv. Eliminating Opponent Offensive Rebounds/Rebounding each missed Oppenent FGA/FTA; and,
xv. Retreiving missed FGAs/FTAs by creating an offensive rebound;

Five-Man Unit stats from 82games.com for the Raptors

Top Five-Man Floor Units

Top Five-Man Floor Units, Details

none of which are enhanced by using a two Point Guard line-up, when these two specific players are:

Jose Calderon, 6-3, 197
Jarrett Jack, 6-3, 205

each of whom is a non-elite level defender/rebounder and lacking in outstanding explosive quickness,

in conjunction with:

Hedo Turkoglu/SF … who is a non-elite level defender/rebounder and lacking in explosive quickness;

Chris Bosh/PF … who is a solid defender/rebounder;

Andrea Bargnani/C … who is a non-elite level defender/rebounder and lacking in explosive quickness.

There are Three Main Phases to a basketball game:

Offense, Defense and Rebounding,

and, until the Raptors do a much better job of incorporating ALL THREE phases into their game-planning, at all times, they will remain a middle-of-the-pack team in the NBA landscape.

———————————

PS. What makes this a particularly egregious faux pas, in the Raptors’ current situation, are the number of other Five-Man Unit options which they have available that would do a better job of balancing The Three Main Phases Of The Game for Toronto:

OFFENSIVE & REBOUNDING EMPHASIS
Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Calderon + Weems + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Calderon + DeRozan + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Weems + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + DeRozan + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Belinelli + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Belinelli + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani

DEFENSIVE & REBOUNDING EMPHASIS
Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Calderon + Weems + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Calderon + DeRozan + Weems + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Weems + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + DeRozan + Weems + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Belinelli + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Belinelli + Weems + Johnson + Bosh

more than one of which have yet to be tried at all by the Raptors this season.

Toronto Raptors 101
INDIANA PACERS 105
Complete Game Info - Mon Jan 11 2010

When you take a closer look at the way this specific game was played by these two teams, in terms of their respective rotations:

A.i. LINE-UPS
Raptors and Pacers each use a conventional 5-man unit.
Raptors use Hedo Turkoglu at SF.