khandor’s sports blog

When you take a look at the following extended video clip, it’s important to understand exactly what the Portland Trail Blazers are trying to accomplish this season …

and just how remarkable it would be, if they can actually pull it off, considering that they are playing WITHOUT their:

1. Starting Center, i.e. Greg Oden;

2. Back-up Center, i.e. Joel Przybila; and,

3. Back-up Power Forward, i.e. Travis Outlaw;

completely, and with several other key players like their:

4. Starting Off Guard, i.e. Brandon Roy;

5. Starting Small Forward, i.e. Nicolas Batum; and,

6. Back-up Small Forward, i.e. Rudy Fernandez;

each having spent a fair number of games on the Inactive List this season, due to an assortment of different major and minor injuries.

Yet, somehow, this team is still:

- well above the .500 mark with a W-L Record of 29-21 [i.e. .580]
- in 3rd place in the Pacific Division
- in a tie for 5th place in the Western Conference

in spite of also having to cope with the fact that their head coach, Nate McMillan, is still in ”recovery mode”, himself, from a torn achilles tendon injury, sustained when he stepped into practice earlier this season because the Blazers did not otherwise have enough “healthy” players on their roster to be able to conduct a full scale session.

If Portland can sustain their current level of performance … especially their present Points Allowed Ranking and Rebounding Differential Ranking … now that some of their walking wounded are finally beginning to return to good health, and make the Western Conference playoffs, then, there should be NO DOUBT, whatsoever, which coach should eventually receive this year’s Coach Of The Year Award, in the NBA.

No … doubt … whatsoever!

Prior to the start of NBA training camps this fall, if someone had told you that the Portland Trail Blazers would suffer the following list of injuries to key personnel:

Nicloas Batum, SF - Out for seaon, shoulder surgery
Travis Outlaw, PF - Out for season, foot surgery
Rudy Fernandez - Out indefinitely, back surgery
Greg Oden, C - Out for season, knee surgery
Nate McMillan, HC - Out indefinitely, achilles surgery
Joel Przybilla, C - Out for season, knee surgery

all before December 24, 2009 … and, yet,

their Won-Loss Record would still be 18-12/.600 [2nd, Northwest Division; 6th [tied], Western Conference],

Would you have believed it possible?

Game 30 Recap: Blazers 85, Mavericks 81, and by the way ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?

Breaking News: Joel Przybilla Ruptures Right Patella Tendon & Dislocates Patella; Out Indefinitely

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If this most recent injury to Brandon Roy [OG-SF-PG] turns out to be significant …

Freeman: Brandon Roy to Undergo MRI Thursday

it will simply be astounding, if the Blazers are able to compete effectively in their match-up this evening with the San Antonio Spurs, and then for the remainder of this season.

Whatever “deal with the devil” Paul Allen [owner] and Kevin Pritchard [GM] may have made, in regard to the ridiculous level of NBA talent which Portland has been able to assemble on its roster over the last few seasons, surely, cannot possibly be worth the degree of adversity their franchise is having to endure this season … could it?

If the Blazers can somehow make it through this season without falling aparat, completely … it says here that the old adage which goes like this:

“That which doesn’t kill you only serves to make you stronger.”
- Anonymous

will never have been more accurate/true for any other franchise in the storied history of the NBA.

There’s a world-class champion incubating in the Pacific Northwest … if it can just manage to successfully navigate these incredibly turbulent waters this season.

Related:

Diamond in the rough finally begins to glisten

In response to a most interesting article by David Berri …

The Impact of Losing Greg Oden
The primary purpose of this post was to highlight how good Oden had played this season (to see how good, please read the post).  Certainly it’s possible that the Blazers could overcome this loss.  But it seems fairly likely that Portland’s season is not going to go quite as well as I thought earlier this year. 

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1. The Blazers were NEVER going to be the best team in the West this season.

2. The Blazers’ overall development arc, as “one of the best teams in the West”, will involve a wider sweep than just 2 or 3 seasons.

3. The problems with this year’s Blazers [at least, so far] this season were not rooted in the play of Greg Oden but in the following list of developments from the last 6 months:

i. Unnecessarily soliciting the services of Hedo Turkoglu [SF/Orlando who eventually signed with Toronto as an UFA], which upset/disrupted the flow they had been developing with Travis Outlaw [PF-SF] and Rudy Fernandez [SF-OG-PG];

ii. Unnecessarily signing a superfluous, ball-dominating PG, like Andre Miller [as an UFA/Philadelphia];

iii. The protracted contract extension negotiations with Brandon Roy [OG-PG-SF] and LaMarcus Aldridge [PF-C]; and,

iv. Re-integrating Martell Webster [OG-SF], a top 8 player, returning from an injury-lost season, into their everyday rotation.

v. The injury sufferred by Nicolas Batum [SF-OG], a long and athletic player who can Defend and Rebound at his specific positions;

vi. The injury sufferred by Travis Outlaw [PF-SF], an under-sized but very versatile and effective player who can: A. take/make big [jump] shots [catch & shoots, plus pull-ups] in the 4th quarter; B. Defend, at the #3/SF or #4/PF with good length and athleticism; and, C. Rebound, at the #/SF or #4/PF position with good length and athleticism.

vii. The long term effects of the “health scare” which their owner, Paul Allen, had last season, that artificially “pushed forward” the team’s perceived “development arc” this past summer in a way which their team was unprepared to cope with at this time … i.e. trying to “win now [!]” instead of gradually continuing their “incremental build-up” over an extended number of years [5-7?].

If Kevin Pritchard truly understands what’s been happening with his squad this season, from a team-building standpoint, then, what he’ll do now is:

I. Not try to “replace” Oden from outside his current group of players;

II. Continue to repair their internal relationships with Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Fernandez;

III. Move Andre Miller for another better-fitting asset, asap;

IV. Allow his group of Core Players to continue to grow together organically … while integrating this off-season’s main additions from the 2009 NBA Draft, i.e. Dante Cunningham [PF-SF], Patrick Mills [PG] and Jeff Pendergraph [PF].

If Kevin Pritchard does things things and then simply waits on the eventual return of Greg Oden … what he’ll have on his hands, 2 seasons from now, is a fully grown team that is ready, willing and able to challenge the Lakers, as the No. 1 outfit in the West, just as Kobe Bryant’s “development arc” is finally beginning to flow downwards its end-point.

On the other hand …

If Kevin Pritchard does not understand these things about the state of his own team, then, what he’ll do instead is “continue to try and rush” the Blazers through this key stage of their “upward arc” … which involves “learning how to lose before learning how to win”, just like Jordan’ Bulls and Zeke’s Pistons and Hakeem’s Rockets and Robinson’s [and Duncan’s] Spurs and Shaq/Kobe’s Lakers each went through before emerging as multiple-time league champions … then what he’ll do is make the WRONG MOVE at the WRONG TIME and end up blowing this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity which has come his way in Portland, i.e. to construct one of the NBA’s all-time great franchises with the likes of [youngsters] Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless, Dante Cunningham, Patrick Mills, Jeff Prendergraph and [a healthy] GREG ODEN, plus [oldsters] Joel Przybilla [C], Steve Blake [PG] and Juwan Howard [PF].

The ball is in Kevin Pritchard’s court.

For the Blazers’ sake, it’s important that he doesn’t drop it.

PS. FWIW … Please know that ”curses” do not exist in pro sports. Poor decision-making skills - e.g. bringing injured players back too soon, acquiring ill-fitting players, trying to speed up the development process, etc. - on the other hand, can be found in abundance.

Related:

Latest injury will derail Oden for good

Where to now for Portland?

Blazers confirm Oden’s season is over

Blazers take another small step forward

“A journey of 1000 miles begins with a single step.”
- Lao Tzu

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Portland 122, Chicago 98: Everything falls into place for Blazers
For a night, at least, order was restored within the Trail Blazers. Brandon Roy was back at shooting guard and controlling the pace and precision of the offense. Andre Miller, steadfastly saying he is accepting the reins of the second unit, played perhaps as hard and determined as he has all season. And the inside combination of Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge was dominant like never before.  

The Blazers didn’t just beat Chicago on Monday, they overpowered them — dunking over, cutting through and stepping all over the Bulls during a 122-98 victory in front of 20,383 at the Rose Garden, its 79th consecutive sellout.

“A number of things are just starting to come together,” said Roy, who had 18 points and seven assists despite sitting the final eight minutes. “I think guys are back in their natural positions and we sensed that we have to get this going, too.”

Oden tied his career high with 24 points to go along with 12 rebounds, and Aldridge recorded his fifth double double of the season, finishing with 24 points and 13 rebounds. While the Blazers’ big men helped create a 50-32 advantage in points in the paint, the perimeter duo of Roy and Miller (16 points, five assists) not only flourished in separate units, they also thrived when they played together.

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Building a championship calibre organization in the NBA is about making small steps forward each and every day … not swinging for the fences.

In Portland … it’s only a matter of time.

Related:

Diamond in the rough finally begins to glisten

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando - High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland - High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston - High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington - Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte - Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee - Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York - Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey - Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:

Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.

In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.

So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.

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By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]

OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]

SMALL FORWARDS
* None

POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]

CENTERS
* Johan Petro {#4]

… given the specifics of this trade

and,

* Knowing who the Raptors’ FOUNDATION player is [Jun 04, 2009]

* Five off-season moves for the Raptors which would have helped to address their Treadmill status [May 29, 2009]

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1. Now is not the time to rejoice, in Raptorville; as,

2. Reggie Evans might not prove to be the “best fit” for their team; and, 

3. According to Bryan Colangelo [GM], “We’re not done yet.”

The 76ers are one of three teams in the Atlantic Division that finished with a better Won-Lost Record than the Raptors [33-49/.402] this past season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415

and, for all intents and purposes, give up nothing of value in this deal … given the list of Bigs which they have on their current roster; while adding a spot-up 3PT-shooter who they can use in limited minutes to stretch the defense and augment their more athletic slashing players.

On the other hand, the Raptors now have a glut of players at their Big spots … including Bosh & Bargnani, their two most talented players … and remain relatively “unathletic” at the Wing position without a dynamic scorer who can consistently create his own shot:

Depending on the OTHER moves which the Raptors decide to make this off-season, including who they select in the upcoming NBA Draft, time will tell if this trade is the first phase of an actual resurgence for their team, relative to the other squads in the Atlantic Division [and the Eastern Conference, in general], or not.

At this point, however, at least it’s a start down a better path.

In preparation for this evening’s match-up between the Raptors and the 76ers:

this is a snapshot of a single possession, from an early season game between these same two teams.

What do you see, from a Raptors’ perspective?

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If you look closely at this photo what you should be able to see is that:

* Roko Ukic has his man checked on the original Weak Side of the floor [i.e. Miller]

* Chris Bosh has his man checked on the original Ball Side of the floor [i.e. Mystery Sixer A]

* Jamario Moon was probably beaten off the bounce by Thaddeus Young, who drove into the lane from the Right Corner [i.e. looking at the picture]

Leaving the questions:

1. How come there was NO “Help” provided by Jason Kapono, who was checking Mystery Sixer B [standing Weak Side above the 3PT-line]?

2. How come Andrea Bargnani was “Pinned” in a Fronting Position vs Mystery Sixer C [either Brand or Dalembert; it's hard to tell in the pic], in a poor position to respond to, and effectively deter, Young’s drive into the lane?

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There is no secret to playing good, solid defense in the NBA … but, a team’s best efforts in this area are severely mitigated by the presence on the floor of more than one individual player who is an Inferior Team Defender.

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Related material:
Deciphering the correct code for the Raptors [Dec 3 2008]
Wait a second … what’s really going on here [Dec 4 2009]
What is really going on here: Part II [Dec 5, 2009]
Respect for tellers of truths [Dec 8, 2009]

When yours truly sees this type of observation being made repeatedly in on-line articles and commentary by traditional media sources, bloggers, and members of the Raptors’ fanbase …

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Reasons for concern in Raptorville
The defenceless point guard

In his first year as starting point guard, Jose Calderon has kept up his efficient offensive ways, with a league-leading 4.18 assists for every turnover.

But on the other end of the floor, opposing point guards routinely light up Calderon. Tony Parker had 24 points and 10 assists against him. Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook had 19 points and eight assists. Devin Harris has torched Calderon in two decisive fourth quarters.

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it indicates that there is still a significant level of basketball sophistication that has yet to be reached by many of the followers of this team.

The average Raptors fan has seen Jose Calderon play each and every game of his NBA career to-date; but this does NOT mean that said fan has a sound/accurate understanding of the game, in general, and how it should be played properly, concerning a player like the Raptors’ starting PG.

In reality … while Jose Calderon will never be confused for a top notch defensive player … he is far from being an atrocious defender at the PG position in the NBA.

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Specific Defensive Responsibilities of a PG for a team in the NBA

Situation #1. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. Pressure/contain the opposition’s PG, 1-on-1.

Situation #2. In a half-court situation when there is a Pick being set on him. Direct the opposition’s PG toward the Picker - in conjunction with the Picker’s defender - and then recover [by going either under or over, depending on the specific defensive tactic being used] to defend the PG on the dribble.

Situation #3. In a transition situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To contain the opposition’s PG on the dribble, 1-on-1.

Situation #4. In a transition situation when there is a Pick being set on him. To contain the opposition’s PG on the dribble, in conjunction with the Picker’s defender.

Situation #5. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To switch defensive responsibilities with a teammate who has the task of defending against an opposition player who plays a different position and is, therefore, usually a bigger player. 

Situation #6. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To initiate defensive double-teams and traps against opponent players who are very skilful at scoring either in the Low Post or on drives from the perimeter into the lane.

Situation #7. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him.  To rotate appropriately in order to provide the necessary help for a teammate who has been beaten on a dribble penetration move by an opponent.

Situation #8. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To rotate appropriately in order to provide the necessary help for a teammate who has had to rotate to assist a teammate that has been beaten on a dribble penetration move by an opponent, i.e. Help-the-helper.

Situation #9. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To close-out appropriately versus an opponent shooter, contesting the shot and containing that player on the dribble.

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When Jose Calderon is injury-free, the vast majority of his individual defensive breakdowns occur in Situation #2, as a result of a Big-on-Little Pick, where the main culprit isn’t actually Calderon at all but the Raptors’ Big involved in defending this specific action.

If Andrea Bargnani [who is the worst offender], Jermaine O’Neal [who is the 2nd worst offender], Chris Bosh [who is fairly good at this] and Kris Humphries [who is the most proficient at this], as a group, do a poor job defensively when:

i. Switching
ii. Showing & Recovering, or
iii. Trapping

in a 5/4-on-1 Pick scenario … and the opponent’s PG is able to dribble penetrate into the heart of the Raptor’s defense on a consistent basis, primarily, this is not the fault of the Dino’s PG.

When assessing Jose Calderon’s individual defense … encompassing those Nine Situational Categories … versus that provided by the other starting PGs across the League, this is what you should be able to see:

which would place him in the middle-of-the-pack, approximately, not towards the bottom. 

Really like what’s been coming out of the 76ers’ training camp, so far.

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Sixers’ Brand, Dalembert learning to work together
Elton Brand isn’t accustomed to playing with a shot-blocking center who has a penchant for catching lobs at the other end of the floor. Samuel Dalembert isn’t accustomed to playing with a power forward who sets up regularly in the low post and commands a double-team.

Time to go to work.

With three preseason games remaining, starting tomorrow night in Cleveland, 76ers coach Maurice Cheeks has plans “to try and get those guys on the same page.”

“Defensively, in terms of rebounding, there’s no space that’s not taken up by both,” Cheeks said before practice yesterday at Philadelphia College of Osteopathic Medicine. “The challenge is at the offensive end, because more often than not, Elton’s going to have the ball. Sam will either be underneath, or stepping out on top, or screening a guard. Sam’s spot will be defined by where Elton has the ball.

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Q1. Will they be good enough to be considered one of the upper echelon teams in the NBA this season?

A1. No, not yet. However, this team is most definitely heading in the right direction … ↑↑↑.

[Note 1: The most impressive Sixer these eyes saw last week, during their exhibition W vs the Raptors, was their young Big, Mauresse Speights. If Elton Brand can stay healthy, over the next few years, this team is going to get a whole lot better, with the continued maturation of Andre Iguodala, Louis Williams, Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith, etc., under the steady hands of Andre Miller (PG), Maurice Cheeks & Ed Stefanski.]