Watch the following sequence of events and then identify correctly what crucial mistake the 76ers made which resulted in their loss to the Celtics [on Thursday]:
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Should they have gone “under” the pick, instead of switching?
Should they have gone “over” the pick, “shown hard” with Garnett’s defender, and then “recovered back” to their original checks?
Should they have ”trapped” the pick?
Or, should they have done something else, altogether different?
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The specific take from this corner …
The main mistake which Doug Collins made in this instance was his deployment of this specific Group of 5 players against the Quintet that Doc Rivers put on the floor:
PG – Holiday vs Rondo
OG – Williams vs Robinson
SF – Meeks vs Allen
PF – Iguodala vs Pierce
C – Young vs Garnett
which amounted to the following “Individual Match-up” categories:
For Philadelphia -> 3 Smalls [i.e. Robinson, Rondo & Allen] + 2 Mediums [Iguodala & Young]
vs
For Boston -> 3 Smalls [Robinson, Rondo & Allen] + 1 Medium [Pierce] + 1 Big [Garnett]
What Doug Collins should have done instead was use THIS specific Group of 5 players on this final possession:
PG – Iguodala [Medium] vs Rondo [Small]
OG – Williams [Small] vs Robinson [Small]
SF – Meeks [Small] vs Allen [Small]
PF – Young [Medium] vs Pierce [Medium]
C – Battie [Big] vs Garnett [Big]
… and the 76ers would have probably won this game outright, by getting a defensive stop on this possession, regardless of what specific play the Celtics decided to use.
Understanding properly how “Individual Match-ups” actually work is the key to understanding the NBA game.
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PS. If you actually watched this game on television, like yours truly did, then, you should have been able to see the look of absolute horror which came over the face of Ed Stefanski [Sixers GM] … believe it, or not, it was very much like this … when he first surveyed the floor, saw the 5 players Coach Collins sent out, from the preceding time-out, to defend against the 5 players deployed by Doc Rivers, and mouthed the following 5 words of fright and dismay: “No! What are you doing!” Right now, the 76ers might well be the best 7-15 team in the NBA, considering they have lost at least 3 games [i.e. L1, in OT; L2, in OT; and L3] in mind-boggling fashion. :-(
If you’ve taken the time to read a good portion of what’s been published on this blog to-date, then, you are already familiar with a few simple “facts” about the game of basketball:
[for example]
- it is comprised of 3 distinct main phases, i.e. Defense, Rebounding and Offense
- the 1 of these 3 phases which is the least well-understood, by “fans” and other so-called “expert observers” is Rebounding … followed by Defense … primarily, due to its “central” role and the way it influences the character of an elite level team
- basketball is, fundamentally, a “team” game … in which major success and failure [i.e. winning and losing the championship] are determined, in large part, by the highly specific strengths and weaknesses of the “individual” players and their ability to work “in concert” against a particular opponent
- while statistics, in general, are a terrific tool to help one understand how the game actually works, in isolation, they are not a wholly accurate reflection of reality and, at all times, need to be evaluated critically in the appropriate context
- an examination of highly specific anecdotal evidence is a gateway to developing an accurate understanding of the way in which a championship-winning team operates that is separate and distinct from its competition
- putting an elite level team together properly is akin to “composing a virtuoso work of art” … moreso, than simplistically “painting by the numbers”
============================
To wit:
[this is the specific comment which was just submitted by yours truly at the Wages of Wins Journal]
If someone could take the time to explain the reason the previous comment which I left in this thread was removed, it would be appreciated.
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In the interim, let’s try again.
It is a mistake in basketball judgment to think that keeping the 12 players with the highest WP48 numbers is necessarily the best way to construct a championship-winning basketball “team”.
Just because Gerald Wallace’s WP48 number … which [in fact] “fails to reflect a picture of reality” [according to a respected commentor [sic] on this site like Tom Mandel] … is substantially higher than Rudy Gay’s does not mean that simply “replacing Gay with Wallace” is the better way to go, in this case, i.e. with this specific group of players, their expected opposition, and the relatively large group of [at least, somewhat redundant] PG’s still on the active roster [i.e. Curry, Billups, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook], when compared with the sheer number of wing players [i.e. combo OG/SF/PF] with good size, strength, relative quickness – at their respective positions – and the ability to: i. defend, ii. rebound, iii. shoot the ball efficiently from distance, and iv. be high volume scorers, e.g. like Iguodala, Gay and Durant].
When you dissect how a championship-winning team is actually put together, what you will find is that rarely – if ever – is it simply a conglomeration of the 12 players with the highest available WP48 numbers [e.g. Was Charles Barkley a member of the 1984 team? or, Was Isiah Thomas a member of the original Dream Team?] And, the exact reasons for this are rarely – if ever – rooted in the way these specific players performed in lead-up public scrimmage situations.
Unfortunately, numeric-based analysis of basketball which reads like this is what can create a poor image overall for “stats” gurus, in the eyes of elite level coaches the world over.
[Hopefully this comment meets with your approval.]
Philadelphia 76ers 79 [2-0]
TORONTO RAPTORS 84 [0-2] Game Scoreboard
What exactly do you need to know about this specific game?
… as Part II to the back-2-back affairs which these teams played Tuesday [in London ON] and Wednesday [in Toronto ON]
1. Bosh, Turkoglu and Wright were out, once again, for the Raptors; while Rodney Carney was absent again for the 76ers.
2. The back-up players for each of these two teams are just THAT … i.e. ”Back-up quality” players, in the NBA, as opposed to being “Starter quality” players who “just happen to be coming off the bench”.
3. At the 10:23 mark of the 4th quarter, the score was tied 64-64, with the following line-ups on the court:
Philadelphia
PG/Sean Singletary, OG/Royal Ivey, SF/Brandon Bowman, PF/Jason Smith and C/Marreese Speights
Toronto
PG/Jarrett Jack, OG/Quincy Douby, SF/Sonny Weems, PF/Amir Johnson and C/Patrick O’Bryant
from which point, each team made the following substitutions during the final stages of the game:
Philadelphia
PG/Jrue Holiday [for Sean Singletary]
SF/Thaddeus Young [for Brandon Bowman]
PF/Brandon Bowman [for Jason Smith]
as the 76ers proceeded to outscore the Raptors 20-15 the rest of the way … while playing on the road.
4. Philadelphia and Toronto are each going to have their hands full this season qualifying for the playoffs in the EC with [at least] the likes of Boston, Orlando, Cleveland, Atlanta, Washington, Miami, Chicago, Charlotte and Detroit all appearing to superior personnel, from top-to-bottom, on their roster.
Jay Triano – Implementing increased ball movement. Instructing new players on defensive and offensive requirements. Little demonstration of physical and/or emotional engagement.
The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.
Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.
Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.
(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)
There’s a bunch of guys like that.
Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)
Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.
HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t.
WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.
But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.
It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.
If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.
Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright. He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible.
Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.
Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.
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THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.
Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!
PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play? Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.
PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.
PPPS. Btw … What Wayne Winston had to say in this piece about there being no distinction necessary between the use of players like Brandon Bass [#4/PF] and Dirk Nowitzki [#5/C], on the court together, regardless of their position, and the effect/thinking of Mike D’Antoni, just happens to be wrong.
… there is now, at least, a good possibility that Philadelphia might actually choose to field a line-up with a different configuration, when the regular season starts, which looks like this:
TEAM
COACH
PG
OG
SF
PF
C
PHI
41 W
Jordan
Williams
Iguodala
Young
Brand X
Dalembert
Holiday
Ivey
Green
Kapono
Rush ?
Carney
Smith X
Marshall ?
Speights
Brezec
Key Differences
Shifting Andre Iguodala to the Starting OG position.
Shifting Thaddeus Young to the Starting SF postion.
Shifting Elton Brand into the Starting PF position.
Shifting Willie Green into the Back-up OG position.
Shifting Jason Kapono into an Extra OG position.
Inserting Rodney Carney into the Back-up SF position.
… in which case, the 76ers would warrant proper re-classification into the slightly higher category of Tier 2A – Possible Playoff Contenders, i.e. along with Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, Detroit, Charlotte, Toronto and Washington.
The moves which Ed Stefanski has made, thus far, this summer, in an effort to continue the gradual development of the 76ers have all been solid:
1. Hiring a sound, experienced NBA head coach [i.e. Eddie Jordan].
2. Trading Reggie Evans [an excess Back-up PF/Rebounder] for Jason Kapono [a Back-up SF-OG/Spot-up Shooter].
3. Drafting a young athletic PG-of-the-future with good size.
4. Allowing Andre Miller [veteran PG] to leave, via UFA.
5. Re-signing Royal Ivey [still youngish veteran 3rd-string PG] to a cost-effective contract, via UFA.
6. Re-signing Rodney Carney [still youngish veteran Back-up SF-OG/Defender-Rebounder-3PT-Shooter] to a cost-effective contract, via UFA.
This is now [I] a VERY athletic group of players, with [II] good size [especially, at the PG, OG, SF and C positions], [III] an elevated FG shooting percentage [on the whole], [IV] a solid core of returnees, and [V] a significant number of highly serviceable new additions that were not part of last year’s squad, including:
#1/Elton Brand/returning from an injury
#2/Jason Smith/returning from an injury
#3/Jrue Holiday/2009 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 17]
#4/Jason Kapono/via trade
#5/Primoz Brezec/via UFA; and,
#6/Rodney Carney/via UFA.
The group of players and coaches now on Philly’s roster should be able to compete night-in and night-out for a 3rd consecutive berth in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.
it can be very interesting to see which specific teams are perceived by different NBA observers to be head and shoulders above their immediate competition.
#
Pos
PHILADELPHIA
TORONTO
STARTERS
1
PG
Lou Williams, 23
Jose Calderon, 27
2
OG
Andre Iguodala, 25
DeMar DeRozan, 20
3
SF
Thaddeus Young, 21
Hedo Turkoglu, 30
4
PF
Elton Brand, 30
Chris Bosh, 25
5
C
Marreese Speights, 22
Andrea Bargnani, 23
BENCH
6
PG
Royal Ivey, 27
Jarrett Jack, 25
7
OG
Willie Green, 28
Marco Belinelli, 23
8
SF
Jason Kapono, 28
Antoine Wright, 25
9
PF
Jason Smith, 23
Reggie Evans, 29
10
C
Samuel Dalembert, 28
Rasho Nesterovic, 33
EXTRAS
11
G
Jrue Hoilday, 19
Quincy Douby, 25
12
F-C
Primoz Brezec, 29
Amir Johnson, 22
RESERVES
13
PG
TBD
Marcus Banks, 28
14
S-F
TBD
Sonny Weems, 23
15
C
TBD
Patrick O’Bryant, 23
OTHERS
Head Coach
Eddie Jordan
Jay Triano
GM
Ed Stefanksi
Bryan Colangelo
Rec Last Year
41-41/.500, 2nd
33-49/.402, 4th
Playoff Streak
2
0
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Despite what some observers may perceive to be a heightened level of NBA ”talent” on the Raptors’ roster this season, at this point, at least, this corner would suggest treading softly, instead, if your plan involves jumping on the Dino’s mounting bandwagon, as a former lower-echelon team with a legit chance to make major W-L gains in the standings.
Last year the Raptors started their season 8-9, fired their head coach [Sam Mitchell], and proceeded to lose 40 of their remaining 65 games [.385], to miss the playoffs completely; while, the 76ers began their campaign 9-14, fired their coach [Maurice Cheeks], and then went on to win 32 of their remaining 59 games [.542], to make the playoffs as the 6th seed.
Mason Won’t Return to Thunder Mason’s agent, Roger Montgomery, confirmed to The Associated Press on Wednesday that talks between the nine-year NBA veteran and the Thunder had broken down and the two sides wouldn’t be agreeing on a new contract.
Mason had expressed his desire to return to Oklahoma City after a knee injury forced him to miss the second half of last season. Montgomery says the two sides weren’t able to agree on a role for Mason, who still wants to make significant contributions instead of simply being a mentor for younger players.
If he’s 100% healthy, adding a veteran Wing, with the athleticism, skill-set and coachability of Desmond Mason, who can still contribute in a significant way, as a competent role player … like he did last year for the Thunder, prior to sustaining his season-ending injury … might be a solid fit for the 76ers, working under Eddie Jordan’s system, if they intend to legitimately compete hard for an EC playoff spot.
The 76ers are one of three teams in the Atlantic Division that finished with a better Won-Lost Record than the Raptors [33-49/.402] this past season:
1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415
and, for all intents and purposes, give up nothing of value in this deal … given the list of Bigs which they have on their current roster; while adding a spot-up 3PT-shooter who they can use in limited minutes to stretch the defense and augment their more athletic slashing players.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
CURRENT PLAYER ROSTER OPTIONS
Guards
Wings
Bigs
Miller
Williams
Ivey
Iguodala
Green
Rush
Kapono
Young
Brand
Smith
Marshall
Dalembert
Ratliff
Speights
On the other hand, the Raptors now have a glut of players at their Big spots … including Bosh & Bargnani, their two most talented players … and remain relatively “unathletic” at the Wing position without a dynamic scorer who can consistently create his own shot:
TORONTO RAPTORS
CURRENT PLAYER ROSTER OPTIONS
Guards
Wings
Bigs
Calderon
Ukic
Banks
Parker Marion
Delfino [?]
Graham
Douby
Bosh
Evans
Humphries
Mensah-Bonsu
Jawai
Bargnani
Voskuhl
O’Bryant
Nesterovic [?]
Depending on the OTHER moves which the Raptors decide to make this off-season, including who they select in the upcoming NBA Draft, time will tell if this trade is the first phase of an actual resurgence for their team, relative to the other squads in the Atlantic Division [and the Eastern Conference, in general], or not.
At this point, however, at least it’s a start down a better path.
Araujo pick set off chain reaction I‘ve always considered the drafting of Rafael Araujo the Raptors’ original sin. It set off a chain reaction the team has never really recovered from.
Araujo, as every Raptors fan knows, was picked No.8 overall by Rob Babcock, who promised on draft night that the big Brazilian was “Not a stiff.”
Well, he was a stiff. One with small hands and short arms and – quite literally – no upside.
Missing at No.8 isn’t ordinarily the end of the world. It happens. And it says A LOT about the NBA that having the chance to pick the eighth – or in this year’s draft – the ninth best player in the world in a given year carries with it no certainty of success.
Tough league.
But the 2004 draft had its share of good players. One of them – Andre Iguodala – was taken ninth by the Philadelphia 76ers, as every Raptors fan knows.
Which is the problem: It’s not so much that Araujo was a bust, it’s that Iguodala represents exactly and – short of Kobe/LeBron/Wade – I mean exactly what the franchise needs.
He slashes. He defends other wings. He’s a one-man fastbreak. He’s a passable spot-up shooter. He’s very good playmaker and passer. He’s relatively affordable, at $12-million a year, which is pretty good value for a Tier 1A wing player in the NBA.
But you know all this.
Still, I’ve been thinking about Iguodala as I’ve [been] watching Mickael Pietrus with the Orlando Magic.
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In contrast, what this corner sees is that the specific time-line … i.e. Chain Reaction … for the de-evolution of the Raptors looks like this:
* Fired Glen Grunwald, Apr 1, 2004
* Hired Rob Babcock, Jun 7, 2004
* Drafted Rafael Araujo [No. 8], Jun 24 2004
* Hired Sam Mitchell, Jun 29, 2004
* Traded Vince Carter, Dec 17, 2004 [for exactly what, in return?]
* Fired Babcock, Jan 26, 2006
* Hired Bryan Colangelo, Feb 28, 2006
* Drafted Andrea Bargnani [No. 1], Jun 28, 2006
* Traded Charlie Villanueva for TJ Ford, Jul 1, 2006
* Traded for Carlos Delfino, Jun 15, 2007
* Signed Jason Kapono, Jul 11, 2007
* Traded TJ Ford & Rasho Nesterovic & No. 17 Draft Pick for Jermaine O’Neal & No. 41 Draft Pick, Jun 26, 2008
* Signed Hassan Adams, Jul 8, 2008
* Signed Roko Ukic, Jul 16, 2008
* Signed Will Solomon, Jul 28, 2008
* Bought out Jorge Garbajosa, Aug 10, 2008
* Fired Mitchell, Dec 3, 2008
33-49/.402, 14th place in the Eastern Conference
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April 1, 2004 [and, then, Dec 17] will live-on, in infamy … as a sort of very real, cruel JOKE … in the history of this franchise, purpetrated by Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment [MLSE, i.e. Richard Peddie & Larry Tanenbaum].
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