khandor’s sports blog

Opening night for the 2009-2010 NBA regular season is a little more than 1 month away.

At this point, how might an astute NBA observer expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors? … considering that virtually the entire team was changed this off-season.

[i.e. only Chris Bosh, Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani, Quincy Douby, Patrick O'Bryant and Marcus Banks return from last year's final roster.] 

Game 1 – vs Cleveland [Wed Oct 28]

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 0-1

It’s interesting when others in the blogosphere attempt to rank NBA players, by position, according to a metric which is based, at least, in part, on standardized game statistics, e.g. PPG, RPG, APG, TS% and PER.

Ranking Eastern Conference Power Forwards
As always, these rankings are meant to project how I think they’ll perform next season, not what they’ve done in the past. The numbers next to each player are last season’s points, assists and rebounds per 36 minutes, their True Shooting percentage (TS%) and their Player Efficiency Ratings (PER).

1. Chris Bosh, Toronto — 2008-09 numbers: 21.5 PTS, 2.3 AST, 9.5 REB, .569 TS%, 22.1 PER
CB4 probably belongs on the top of this list even if he just delivers the same numbers he has over the past four seasons, but it’s a contract year and he wants to prove he’s worth a max contract. I don’t know if his scoring numbers will increase, but I think he’s going to jack up his intensity on defence and on the boards.

2. Kevin Garnett, Boston — 2008-09 numbers: 18.3 PTS, 2.9 AST, 9.9 REB, .563 TS%, 21.2 PER
Before KG screwed up his knee, he was easily the best power forward in the East. Since he’s 33 years old, I’m skeptical that he can return with the same athleticism and explosiveness he’s known for. Of course, Boston fans will tell you that he’ll more than make up for that with heart, intensity, and plain ol’ Celtic Pride. (Pausing to vomit profusely in wastebasket.)

3. Rashard Lewis, Orlando — 2008-09 numbers: 17.6 PTS, 2.6 AST, 5.7 REB, .580 TS%, 16.8 PER
Rashard scored in double figures in all 19 playoff games leading up to the NBA Finals — he was particularly devastating in helping to dispatch the favoured Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. He might end up sliding over to small forward while new team-mate Brandon Bass mans the four-spot, but without confirmation I’ll assume that Lewis will remain the starting power forward and an excellent complement to Dwight Howard’s power game.

4. Josh Smith, Atlanta — 2008-09 numbers: 16.0 PTS, 2.5 AST, 7.4 REB, .533 TS%, 17.2 PER
Sure, he’s a knucklehead, but a very talented one. If he stops jacking up ill-advised threes and returns to being one of the most devastating shot-blockers in the league, Smith’s $10.8 million salary next season might actually seem like a relative bargain.

5. Elton Brand, Philadelphia — 2008-09 numbers: 15.6 PTS, 1.4 AST, 9.9 REB, .484 TS%, 14.6 PER
If he was still in his prime, Brand would easily be third on this list. Unfortunately, he was in the bottom half of Eastern power forwards last season because he was labouring with a bum shoulder and he only played in 29 games. There isn’t a strong track record of big men in their 30s returning to their prior glory after a bad run of injuries (see: Jermaine O’Neal) but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he can get his shooting percentage back up to pre-injury form since he claims he’s feeling like his old self again.

6. Antawn Jamison, Washington — 2008-09 numbers: 20.9 PTS, 1.8 AST, 8.4 REB, .549 TS%, 20.6 PER
Jamison has always put up good numbers and as far as I know, he’s always been a terrible defender. That might help explain why the Wizards had the second-worst record in the NBA last season.

7. Troy Murphy, Indiana — 2008-09 numbers: 15.1 PTS, 2.5 AST, 12.5 REB, .614 TS%, 17.8 PER
Is Troy Murphy a better athlete than Andrea Bargnani? And if not, how does Troy grab twice as many rebounds as Andrea per 36 minutes? Murphy is just as deadly from beyond the arc (45% last season) as Bargnani, but our guy gets the edge on defence because Murph is lousy on that end.

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Or, do they reveal a bias of some sort … i.e. in favour or against specific players; or, a specific “type” of player … at this position?

FWIW …

Here are the preferences of this corner when it comes to choosing the best Power Forward from the Eastern Conference, from this list, if the goal is Winning … e.g. a Do-or-Die Playoff Game … this coming season.

Earlier this spring, yours truly was asked to provide an example of the type of player who SHOULD be obtained by the Raptors in a trade which involved Andrea Bargnani, as a possible #4/PF to play beside Chris Bosh [as the Dino's main-frame Center]. The two names that came to mind straight away were Anderson Varejao [unrestricted] and David Lee [restricted], both of whom are designated as Free Agents at the moment.

Two years ago, as a restricted free agent, the Cavaliers took a long time bringing Varejao into the fold, only doing so after a protracted hold-out. This past season he played as a Starting #4/PF for Cleveland, riding shot-gun for LeBron James, to the tune of 66 W’s in the regular season campaign. As a 27 year old player, going into his 6th season in the NBA, Varejao [6-10, 260] is the sort of effective, role-playing, garbage man who could excel beside Bosh, in a number of different ways [e.g. Offensively, Defensively and in terms of Rebounding].

Right now … in the aftermath of trading for the Big Diesel … the Cavs are in the market for a wing player with solid defensive skills, big game experience and a lively pair of legs with the ability to re-energize their offense without needing the ball in his his hands a great deal of the time.

Do the Raptors have a player on their roster, at the moment, who fits the bill, in this regard … that could possibly be used in a sign and trade to secure the services of Mr. Varejao in return?

By chance … Yes, they do.

His name happens to be Shawn Dwayne Marion … and he’s a perfect fit for Cleveland to complete their roster, hunting for their 1st NBA Title next spring. He is an under-sized, highly energetic #4/PF, who would thrive playing beside [and between] King James and Shaq Daddy. 

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A second good option for the Raptors is David Lee.

Raps setting their sights on Knicks’ big man Lee
The Raptors are widening their NBA free-agent search that now includes one of the more intriguing players on the market.

Capping a whirlwind 24 hours to open the negotiating period, league sources say Toronto is trying to obtain David Lee, an energetic rebounder who is a New York Knicks restricted free agent.

The sources couldn’t say whether the move on Lee would be a straight offer or whether it would be a sign-and-trade transaction with any of Toronto’s current free agents …

Lee, 26, had a breakout year with the Knicks last season, averaging 16 points and 11.7 rebounds a game. He had a salary of just about $1.8 million (all figures U.S.) and is seen as one of the top young free agents out there; he’s a restricted free agent so if Toronto were to simply make an offer and not try to engineer some sign-and-trade transactions, the Knicks could match it.

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Instead of chasing after a good but older player with their available money this summer … e.g. Hedo Turkoglu [age 30] … the Raptors would be much further ahead if they pursued either Anderson Varejao or David Lee AND then used him as their Starting Power Forward beside Chris Bosh [C] this season.

If the Raptors would have just drafted Derrick Brown last Thursday night …

1 Jose Calderon
2 Anthony Parker
3 DeMar DeRozan
4 Carlos Delfino
5 Derrick Brown
6 Reggie Evans
7 Anderson Varejao or David Lee
8 Chris Bosh [Center]
9 Andrea Bargnani

that’s the sort of 9-Man CORE GROUP which could:

* Win their fair share of regular season games this coming season
* Convince CB4 to re-sign with the Raptors next summer 
* Be the foundation of a solid contending team in the EC for the next decade.

By initiating legitimate discussions with Danny Ferry and Donnie Walsh there are all sorts of possibilities which exist for Bryan Colangelo to improve the Raptors this off season … including possible trades involving other talented young players - e.g. Andrea Bargnani, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, JJ Hickson and Danny Green - on each of their respective rosters.

There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:

Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.

In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.

So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.

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By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]

OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]

SMALL FORWARDS
* None

POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]

CENTERS
* Johan Petro {#4]

The QUESTION is … for, let’s say, approximately $6.4 M … 

What two NBA franchises would Allen Iverson, possibly, be the best fit with at this stage of his career?

[i.e. based strictly on their respective player rosters and regardless of any Salary Cap/Luxury Tax restraints on a 1 year contract]

SCENARIO ONE

If the Cavaliers are truly serious about trying to win the 2009-2010 NBA Championship, then Cleveland needs to ratchet up its Offense with a line-up that looks like this:

STARTERS
PG - Allen Iverson [UFA, high cost]
OG - Anthony Parker [UFA, medium cost]
SF - Lebron James
PF - Anderson Varejao
C - Shaquille O’Neal

KEY SUBS
PG/OG - Mo Williams or Daniel Gibson
OG/SF - Keith Bogans [UFA, low cost]
SF/PF - JJ Hickson
C - Zydrunas Ilgauskas 

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SCENARIO TWO

If the Heat are truly serious about trying to reach the 2009-2010 NBA Finals, then Miami needs to ratchet up its Offense with a line-up like this is:

STARTERS
PG - Allen Iverson [UFA, high cost]
OG - Dwyane Wade
SF - Jamario Moon [UFA, low cost]
PF - Udonis Haslem
C - Jermaine O’Neal  

KEY SUBS
PG - Mario Chalmers
OG - Daequan Cook
SF - Michael Beasley
PF - Joel Anthony
C -  Chris Mihm [UFA, low cost]

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For a single season … a move like that would still leave Miami and/or Cleveland in the free agent sweepstakes expected to take place next summer [i.e. 2010] … while giving their respective teams a definite boost this year, in an effort to reach their specific goal.

Are either of these two situations likely to occur next month?

Hmmmm …

[Probably not ... although either one would certainly be very interesting to see materialize this summer.]

Current Odds To Win this Series
Orlando Magic +565
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -615

Although Cleveland has played very well to this point in the Playoffs, they do not enjoy a host of different match-up advantages vs Orlando, like they did vs Atlanta and Detroit.

In particular, the specific spots where the Cavaliers have possessed major advantages … i.e. at the PF/C positions, plus in terms of Quality Depth, overall … will not be the case in this series:

Power Forward/Center

* Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Joe Smith, Ben Wallace & JJ Hickson is a versatile and highly effective set of Bigs. So, too, however, is the combination of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Tony Battie, Marcin Gortat & Adonal Foyle.  

Quality Depth

* The Cavs’ remaining group of Guards & Forwards: Lebron James, Mo Williams, Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, Wally Szerczbiak, Sasha Pavlovic & Tarence Kinsey is stout and highly serviceable. However, they are not a superior force, in comparison with the Magic’s corresponding group at those same positions: Hedo Turkoglu, Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, Anthony Johnson, JJ Redick, Mikael Pietrus & Tyron Lue.

With a Series Price like THAT … Orlando [+565] is a VERY GOOD proposition.

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Please Note:
At the moment, the Cavaliers are +116 to NOT Win the 2008-2009 NBA Title. For those so inclined, this is a VERY GOOD proposition.