khandor’s sports blog

Going forward from this point …

Which player[s] should become the new face[s] of the Raptors franchise?

If the primary long term objective is to win as many NBA championships as possible then the correct answer is quite simple.

PART I

Basketball is a game with 3 distinct phases.

i. Defense - i.e. When your opponent has possession of the ball.

ii. Rebounding - i.e. When neither team has possession of the ball.

iii. Offense - i.e. When your team has possession of the ball.

In the grand history of the NBA, the best teams in the league have consistently been built with multi-dimensional players, as the key foundation pieces.

PART II

Which player[s] on the Raptors’ current roster:

is someone who displays a high degree of proficiency in at least 2 of the 3 main phases of the game, without also being abysmal in the 3rd component?

Answer this exact question properly … and, it will tell you who, if anyone, on the Raptors SHOULD become the new face[s] of the franchise.

[NOTE: 1. R - Rookie. 2. The above classifications are based on accumulated Basketball Acumen. For the benefit of those who need to rely on game stats to make an accurate assesment of these things, feel free to peruse the available information at Hoopdata which pertains to these players. ]

Unfortunately, you might not end up liking what you will find.

As presently constituted …

* There is no Low-Post scoring Big Man on the roster.

* There is no Low-Post scoring Forward or Guard on the roster.

* Without a Low-Post scoring Big Man on the roster, there will be far less room for perimeter-based shooters to find uncontested shots, in half-court offensive situations.

* To a large extent, 4th quarter scoring in the NBA is driven by the main offensive players on a team who are capable of commanding a double-team from the defense. The Raptors have no such player[s] on their roster.

* To a large extent, consistent 4th quarter scoring in the NBA is reliant upon a team’s ability to generate easy points [i.e. high efficiency scoring opportunities] from the Foul Line. The Raptors have no players on their roster with the ability to generate large numbers of Free Throw Attempts in the 4th quarter.

* In half-court offensive situations there are few-to-no players with the ability to “break down” their individual defender off the dribble - without the benefit of a pick - in order to penetrate the perimeter of the defense and create easy scoring opportunities for their teammates.

* There are too many players with negative career Assist-to-Turnover Ratios who will need to play major minutes.

* The Raptors were a poor Points Allowed team last season and have added no experienced players this off season who should be capable of scoring more points themselves than the number of points which they will be responsible for allowing to their opponent, while still being adequate performers at the offensive end of the floor.

* The Raptors were a mediocre-to-poor rebounding team last season and have added no experienced players this off season who should be capable of securing more rebounds themselves than the number of rebounds which they will be responsible for allowing to their opponent, while still being adequate performers at the offensive end of the floor.

* While the Raptors have lost their best player from last year [i.e. Chris Bosh/C-PF], many of their opponents in the Eastern Conference have not and, in fact, have added other quality players to their roster this off season:

MIAMI HEAT, 5th place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Wade/D
Add - James/L, Bosh/C, Miller/M, Ilgauskas/Z and Howard/J
Lose - O’Neal/J, Richardson/Q, Wright/D and Beasley/M

ORLANDO MAGIC, 2nd place
Noteworthy:
Add - Duhon/C and Richardson/Q
Lose - Williams/J and Barnes/M

ATLANTA HAWKS, 3rd place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Johnson/J
Add - Larry Drew and Powell/J [?]
Lose - Mike Woodson

BOSTON CELTICS, 4th place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Pierce/P, Allen/R and Robinson/N
Add - O’Neal/J
Lose - Thom Thibodeau, Wallace/R and Allen/T

MILWAUKEE BUCKS, 6th place
Noteworthy:
Retain: Salmons/J
Add - Maggette/C, Douglas-Roberts/C, Gooden/D and Brockman/J
Lose - Ridnour/L, Bell/C, Gadzuric/D and Jackson/D

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS, 7th place
Noteworthy:
Retain: Thomas/T
Add - Dampier/E, Najera/E and Carroll/M
Lose - Felton/R and Chandler/T

CHICAGO BULLS, 8th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Thom Thibodeau, Boozer/C, Korver/K and Watson/CJ
Lose - Vinny Del Negro, Hinrich/K and Miller/B

INDIANA PACERS, 9th place
Noteworthy:
Add - George/P and Stephenson/L
Lose - None

NEW YORK KNICKS, 10th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Stoudemire/A, Randolph/A, Turiaf/R, Fields/L and Jordan/J
Lose - Lee/D, Harrington/A and Duhon/C

DETROIT PISTONS, 11th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Monroe/G
Lose - Brown/K 

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS, 12th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Doug Collins, Nocioni/A, Hawes/S, Battie/T [?] and Turner/E
Lose - Dalembert/S

NEW JERSEY NETS, 15th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Avery Johnson, Outlaw/T, Farmar/J, Morrow/A and Favors/D
Lose - Kiki Vandeweghe, Douglas-Roberts/C, Boone/J and Jianlian/Y

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PLEASE NOTE:

Although the Raptors just finished the Las Vegas Summer League with a 5-0 record, this performance was achieved without Andrea Bargnani [C] playing a single minute beside some combination of DeMar DeRozan, Sonny Weems, Ed Davis and Solomon Alabi … which is a fact the team’s basketball brain-trust WOULD DO WELL TO KEEP IN MIND, as the 2010-2011 season unfolds.

Related:

The Architecture of the Raptors

Can Toronto Overcome the Loss of Chris Bosh

When you read the following article:

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Magic match Bulls’ offer sheet to retain Redick

The decision drives the Magic deeper into the luxury tax and gives them one of the NBA’s highest payrolls at about $93 million next season. The move keeps Orlando’s roster mostly intact as the Magic hope continuity will overcome Miami’s All-Star trio and Boston’s Big Three in the Eastern Conference.

“When it came down to it, when we’re talking about what we’re trying to do here, it came down for me to pedigree, DNA, things that most people don’t think about,” Orlando general manager Otis Smith said. “It was less about the money for me, being the basketball guy, and more about keeping a guy around that we’ve had in our organization for the past four years.”

The decision was ultimately made by ownership.

Because Redick was a restricted free agent, Orlando had seven days to match the contract. Billionaire owner Rich DeVos and team president Bob Vander Weide took all seven days to make the move that nearly doubles Redick’s salary from last season.

Teams have to pay a dollar for every dollar they are over the luxury tax, which the league set at $70.3 million for next season. The tax hit is based on the roster at the end of the season, meaning it’s likely the Magic could make trades before then to lessen the financial burden.

Orlando should find relief in a new downtown arena that opens this year and creates new revenue streams. Smith also believes a roster that remains one of the deepest in the league is attractive for potential moves and doesn’t mortgage the Magic’s future.

“The fact that we have players that other teams want makes you pretty flexible,” Smith said. “Is it possible to give out contracts and move a little bit less money? Sure. My thing is you don’t want to take a step back with talent.”

At the very least, keeping Redick assures that.

The former Duke standout was the 11th overall pick in the 2006 draft. He struggled early in his NBA career but has become a significant contributor for the Magic.

So much so that Smith decided that Redick and recently signed small forward Quentin Richardson(notes) had more value than Matt Barnes(notes), who became a free agent after one season with Orlando. Smith said he never offered Barnes a deal and all but ruled out the small forward returning next season.

“It really came down to out of those three, which of the two do we bring in?” Smith said. “We like what Matt brought to the table, but sometimes you have to make decisions that’s best for your club long-term.”

———————————–

and, are then made aware of the following information:

EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS

2003-2004, 2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009 and 2009-2010

TRANSACTIONS

Orlando vs Toronto

Isolating the performances of the Raptors and the Magic:

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what you should be able to see is that both of these respective franchises have, in FACT, had a legitimate opportunity to build a first-class operation … starting from a lower tier position in the league 7 seasons ago; and, which has included the hiring of a new GM, along the way … focused on being able to compete for a NBA championship in the not-to-distant future.

To this point, however, only one has made significant head-way … and, a key question going forward for the other, then, becomes:

How many of the players expected to be on their roster next season actually fit into the “Just Winners” category, based upon their experience in the game, thus far?

Unfortunately for the Raptors, the correct answer, according to these eyes, is … quite possibly … as few as 3. 

Every summer, since he was appointed to the position of President/GM for the Toronto Raptors, Bryan Colangelo has “wheeled and dealed”, in an effort to create a player roster which he believes is capable of competing effectively in the Eastern Conference AND - according to what he says each off season - making significant headway, long term, in the standings.

In reality, however, his series of moves each summer have turned out … in the end … to be wrong:

2006-2007, 47-35 [achieved by adding a series of 'stop-gap' players]

2007-2008, 41-41

2008-2009, 33-49

2009-2010, 40-42

and, basically:

1. Have improved the future of the franchise very little, if at all;

while,

2. Keeping the team’s fanbase thoroughly ‘engaged’;

and,

3. Consistently making huge sums of money for Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment Ltd.

This is what the Raptors have now done, since the 2009-2010 regular season ended:

[including the proposed trades which have been reported by the Arizona Republic]

- acquired Ed Davis [No. 13 Selection in the 2010 NBA Draft]
- acquired Solomon Alabi [No. 50 Selection in the 2010 NBA Draft]
- re-signed Amir Johnson
- added PJ Carlesimo as an assistant coach
- acquired Linas Kleiza [if Denver declines to match Toronto's offer sheet]
- traded Chris Bosh [to Miami]
- re-acquired one 1st Round Draft Pick [2011, Toronto's own selection]
- acquired one 1st Round Draft Pick [2011, Miami's selection]
- acquired a TPE [from Miami]
- traded Hedo Turkoglu? [to Phoenix]
- acquired Leandro Barbosa and Dwayne Jones? [from Phoenix]
- traded Dwayne Jones? [to Charlotte]
- acquired Boris Diaw with the acquired TPE? [from Charlotte] 

Has your head stopped spinning yet?

To this point, this is the response from the team’s rabid fanbase,

e.g. Hedo Turkoglu traded to Suns for Leandro Barbosa.

Which is to say … more-or-less … the giving of tacit approval.

———————————–

Q1. In that vortex of opinion, however, who should you pay close attention to when it comes to properly evaluating what these latest moves might mean for the Raptors going forward?

A1. The Jul 12, 2010 at 7:15 am comment belongs to yertu damkule:

———————————–

but, as it stands right now, the only question i have is: ‘does Bryan Colangelo understand what ‘rebuild’ actually means? this seems like just another patch job – middling players acquired who will have no long-term connection to the franchise and who will only ‘steal’ PT from those who do figure to be long-term fixtures.

of course, i guess we have to appreciate the fact that he’s ridding the team of turk, who would have been, IMO, locker room poison & a guy you just don’t want the young guys having anything to do with. still…part of me was kinda/sorta hoping that hedo would still be with the team in the fall, would come in with a changed attitude & play himself into a desireable commodity, so he could be moved for something of a little more substance than barbosa. all things considered, though, thumbs up. he (barbosa) ain’t the player he once was, but he was one of the few suns whose game didn’t seem entirely dependant on nash – he’s a capable backup PG/SG…great at neither, decent at both, but his speed & finishing ability is appealing. i don’t think he’s a great defender by any stretch, but he’s got a huge wingspan & more than enough quickness to disrupt passing lanes at the top of the key & to prevent the easy ‘turning of the corner’ by the ball-handler. the biggest concern is that he’s no longer an average shooter from distance, and that’s something that is really gonna hurt TO this year. they don’t really have ‘spread-the-floor’ guys in the backcourt & wing spots…i guess if they hold onto jose, and the kleiza deal goes through they’ll have a couple…and there’s always bargs.

as for diaw – i’ll hold off comment until it gets finalized. if yyma is correct, and it’s both diaw & chandler coming back (not sure how that would work, numbers-wise), it becomes a completely different deal.

as happy as i am about turk leaving, i’m still scratching my head over how these moves help the team find some kind of direction. they’re clearly not rebuilding – these are treadmill moves, designed to placate the mob, keep the raps ‘contending’ (for a playoff spot), etc. of course, they weren’t exactly gonna be rebuilding with turk either, so who cares?

———————————–

In this instance, his voice is the one of reason.

After spending 7 seasons with the Raptors franchise, what Chris Bosh finally realized last week, sadly, is that the Toronto sports franchises owned by MLSE are little more than intricately woven ‘dramas’, conceived and operated for the purpose of ‘profiteering’ in a highly specific way:

———————————–

Macbeth, Act 5 Scene 5

MACBETH
Wherefore was that cry?The queen, my lord, is dead.To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day
To the last syllable of recorded time,
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

SEYTON

MACBETH
She should have died hereafter;
There would have been a time for such a word.

———————————–

Are you truly aware of just how much money the owner of a laundromat is capable of making, at your expense, if you are willing to simply sit in a chair each week and watch as the ‘wash, rinse and dry’ cycle is repeated, ad infinitum? 

A pox on the house of MLSE! 

… for continuing to conduct its ‘business’ in this way, i.e re-shuffling the deck, yet again … with no real intention to put themselves in position to be able to contend for a league championship at some point in the not-too-distant future.

Kudos to Chris Bosh for finally getting out of this quagmire.

In all likelihood, given the collection of players and coaches on Toronto’s roster for next season:

[which might look like this in the next few days]

PG: Calderon, Jack and Banks
OG: Weems, Barbosa and Belinelli
SF: DeRozan and Kleiza
PF: Diaw [SF], Johnson, Davis, Evans and Dorsey
C: Bargnani and Alabi

Coaches: Triano, Carlesimo, Iavaroni, English, Nori and Hughes

the Raptors will be ’stuck’ firmly in the middle of the Eastern Conference …

Tier One

Boston, Orlando and Miami

Tier Two

Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Indiana, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New York, Philadelphia, Toronto and Washington

[NOTE: Tier Two will be further sub-divided as the off season moves along.]

‘competing’ for a mid-to-lower tier playoff position …

as a Treadmill Team, going nowhere fast.

Cha-ching!

———-

PS. FWIW, do not think for a minute that the Raptors are now done making personnel moves this summer. If nothing else, Bryan Colangelo has consistently shown himself to be a very ‘hard-working’ GM.

First …

The Raptors selected Ed Davis [PF] with the No. 13 [overall] Selection of the 2010 NBA Draft, when he was not the best player still available on the board.

Second …

The Raptors chose to acquire Solomon Alabi [C], as the No. 50 [overall] Selection of the 2010 NBA Draft, when he was not the best available Center still on the board.

Third …

The Raptors announced the re-signing of Amir Johnson [PF] for $35.0 M over 5 years.

Fourth …

The Raptors have now announced that they have submitted an ‘offer sheet’ to Linas Kleiza [SF/PF] - the Denver Nuggets’ RFA who played in Greece last season - for $18.8 M over 4 years.

Fifth …

The New Jersey Nets announced that they have signed Travis Outlaw [PF/SF] - as an UFA - to a 5-yr contract for $35.0 M.

Now …

The key question becomes:

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[Hint: If your answer is, "Not either of the ones currently involved with the Toronto Raptors," then there's a pretty good chance you will turn to be correct.] 

PART 1

When Chris Bosh spoke with the assembled media, in Toronto …

Chris Bosh’s post-season press conference [April 15, 2010]

… he made his intentions quite clear, with respect to:

1. His decision to declare for unrestricted free agency this summer;

2. His desire for a maximum contract;

3. His willingness to listen to the sales pitches of other teams

4. His willingness to re-sign with the Raptors after July 1, if the team does the right things in the interim to indicate that Toronto would, in fact, be the best place for him to continue his pro career, as an elite level player who is committed to [i] maximizing his ability, and [ii] trying to win the NBA championship

Q1. Has Chris Bosh done anything since that press conference to indicate that he has changed his mind about any of these 4 intentions? 

A1. No, he has not.

Q2. Have the Raptors done anything since that press conference to indicate that they are committed to building a championship calibre team in Toronto?

- retained Jay Triano, as their head coach
- retained Andrea Bargnani [C], as their No. 2 scorer [with Bosh]
- alienated Hedo Turkoglu, as their principal acquisition from last season
- added PJ Carlesimo, as a new assistant coach
- added Ed Davis [PF], as a 2010 1st Round Draft Pick/No. 13
- added Solomon Alabi [C], as a 2010 2nd Round Draft Pick/No. 50
- extended an olive branch to Hedo Turkoglu, as their No. 3 scorer [with Bosh]
- re-signed Amir Johnson [PF], as their own UFA

A2. No, they have not.

=====================

PART 2

i. Was the major weakness on last year’s Raptors team the poor performance of its front-court players?

[e.g. considering the play of Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Reggie Evans, Rasho Nesterovic, Patrick O'Bryant and Joey Dorsey] 

or,

ii. Was the major weakness on last year’s Raptors team the poor performance of its Point Guards?

[e.g. considering the play of Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack and Marcus Banks]

or,

iii. Was the major weakness of last year’s Raptors team the poor performance of its wing players?

[e.g. DeMar DeRozan/1st-yr, Hedo Turkoglu, Antoine Wright/UFA, Sonny Weems/2nd-yr, and Marco Belinelli/3rd-yr]

==================

Unfortunately …

and despite the message which the team’s fans are being given by the Basketball Operations department of MLSE,

Raptors introduce Davis and Alabi at the Air Canada Centre

… it does not seem as though Bryan Colangelo has a solid grasp of where the team’s REAL problems are actually rooted [i.e. #1. The overall attitude and under-whelming performance of Andrea Bargnani, C; and, #2. Their current slate of less-than stellar wing players].

==================

PART 3

If Chris Bosh does not eventually re-sign with the Raptors, he will have made a sound basketball decision, based upon what the Raptors’ management team has shown him over the course of his 7 seasons in the NBA, including the personnel moves which they’ve made [and not made], thus far, this summer … if his primary goal is to compete for a league championship.

If Chris Bosh does eventually re-sign with the Raptors, he will have made a sound financial decision, based upon the fact that he can earn an additional $30.0 M more of guaranteed money from the Toronto Raptors, over the course of his 6-yr maximum contract.  

The next week, or so, is going to be very interesting, and should solidify what exactly Chris Bosh’s priorities actually are, both, as a person and an elite basketball player.

Unfortunately, the Toronto Raptors priorities have been established for quite some time already, as a profit-centered business operation.

Those calling for Bryan Colangelo to be dismissed, as the GM for the Raptors, are delusional.

What the Raptors - and Bryan Colangelo - NEED to do, however, at this point in time, is implement a fundamental PARADIGM SHIFT … in the way that their basketball operation conducts its business, by prioritizing the objective of TRYING TO WIN MULTIPLE NBA CHAMPIONSHIPS through the gradual construction of a top notch player roster that is filled with solid “NBA level talent” [i.e. in terms of specific skill sets and athleticism] and a proven coaching staff.

As wrong as each of Bryan Colangelo’s major personnel moves have been, thus fas, in his tenure as the Raptors’ GM, the fact is …

1. He finally did the RIGHT THING … by failing to making any trades this season at the Trade Deadline;

and,

2. He is finally now saying the RIGHT THING … as far as [i] properly managing the expectations for the team heading into next season AND [ii] assessing accurately just how far away this current collection of players is from actually being able to compete successfully for a Top 4 playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, in the not-too-distant future …

provided that he is NOW willing to:

A. Keep Chris Bosh/C;

B. Exceed the Luxury Tax Threshold;

and,

C. Trade Andrea Bargnani/C, in exchange for a solid, veteran wing player with good size, NBA athleticism, and a commitment to sound defensive play and rebounding.

To wit:

Andrea Bargnani Trade Proposal

What this specific trade would accomplish …

OPTION 1

From a Raptors’ perspective:

Keeping Bosh would be Step 1.

Trading Bargnani for Battier + Taylor would be Step 2.

- it would rid the team of a defensive albatross
- it would add a 3rd string PG to play behind Calderon and Banks
- it would add a solid wing defender/rebounder with good size to go with the younger tandem of DeRozan and Weems

Step 3 would then involve trading Hedo Turkoglu.

Step 4 would then involve trading Jarrett Jack.

Step 5 would then involve keeping Amir Johnson.

Step 6 would then involve selecting another future rotation player with the 2010 1st Round Draft Pick.

The Raptors would then be moving forward with the following group of players:

1 Chris Bosh, C
2 Amir Johnson, PF
3 Shane Battier, SF
4 DeMar DeRozan, OG
5 Jose Calderon, PG

6 New Player #1 [obtained via trade for Turkoglu]
7 New Player #2 [obtained via trade for Jack]
8 Sonny Weems, OG-SF
9 Marco Belinelli, OG-PG
10 Jermaine Taylor, PG
11 Marcus Banks, PG
12 2010 1st Round Pick
13 New Player #3 [FA signed to replace Antoine Wright]
14 Reggie Evans, PF [or New Player #4, obtained via trade for Reggie Evans]
15 Rasho Nesterovic, C [re-signed for the veteran's minimum]

Patrick O’Bryant would not be re-signed.
Joey Dorsey would not be re-signed [or, he would replace Reggie Evans].

==============================

From the Rockets’ perspective:

1. Bargnani could play Center for them, if Yao Ming isn’t ready to go at the start of next season.

2. Bargnani could be used as Yao Ming’s offensively oriented back-up off the bench, if the big fella is ready to start the season.

3. Bargnani could be used at the PF position, beside Yao Ming, if the big fella is ready to start the seaon, and the Rockets want to go with a twin towers line-up.

——————————————–
NOTE: In every situation, Morey would need to play Bargnani with solid positional defenders in order to compensate for Il Mago’s deficiency in this area. Morey is smart enough to pull that off.
——————————————–

OPTION 2

The same as Option 1, above, except … the Raptors would simply elect to keep Hedo Turkoglu.

——————————————–

What would the 2010-2011 roster then look like for the Raptors?

The more time an astute NBA observer actually spends looking at the depth chart involved with OPTION 2, the more this observer should then begin to see a variety of different possibilities which would be quite a positive development for the Raptors … moving forward … as a team that finished in the No. 9 position this season [especially if Bryan Colangelo can also get a future protected 1st Round Draft Pick included in the trade with Houston].

——————————————–

Despite what some might think, yours truly is firmly in the Raptors’ corner and of the belief that the pro hoops franchise in Toronto has ALWAYS been just a few RIGHT moves away from being able to develop into one of the premier organizations in the entire NBA.

There’s an old adage in the world of sport that goes something like this:

“You should never, ever, take solace in the mis-fortune of your opponent.”

… because:

i. It’s simple not the right way to live your own life;

ii. The “Sporting Gods” do NOT shine their favour on those who fall prey to this affliction;

iii. The “Sporting” Gods do shine their favour, however, on those who focus on what they CAN DO themselves to give their own team the best chance of winning. Period.

In general, this is a tried and true philosophy which makes a great deal of sense … when it comes to NOT taking any solace in the mis-fortune that can sometimes befall AN OPPONENT.

As far as the Raptors are concerned, however …

This adage HAPPENS NOT TO APPLY … when the misfortune, in question, actually be-falls a player on YOUR OWN TEAM!

To wit:

Yes, the Raptors are about to take the court this evening against the Bulls, as a battered and bruised team.

EXhibit A

Chris Bosh/PF is out of the Raptors’ line-up indefinitely while recovering from facial fractures he sustained this past week, against Cleveland. This fact hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

Exhibit B

Hedo Turkoglu/SF is in the line-up for this evening’s game, but with a protective mask on his face his face to guard against incurring further damage to his own broken nose, sustained this past week, against Boston. Since Turkoglu simply hates wearing a protective mask on his face, this fact also hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

Exhibit C

Amir Johnson/PF … who replaced Chris Bosh in the Raptors’ Starting Line-up against Atlanta … is playing in this evening’s game, but with a slightly sprained ankle which he incurred during the 2nd half. This fact hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

Exhibit D

Jarrett Jack/PG … their solid Back-up to Jose Calderon … is playing in this evening’s game, but with a slightly sprained ankle/foot which he also incurred during the 4th quarter against Atlanta. This fact hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

But, all hope is far from lost for the Raptors, as …

Exhibit E

Antoine Wright/SF-OG … their defensive specialist at the wing positions and the primary back-up to Turkoglu and Sonny Weems … is out of the line-up indefinitely with a severely sprained right ankle which he incurred during the 4th quarter against Atlanta. This fact HELPS the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight … in a major way.

Huh? … What’s that you say?

It’s impossible to have a 5th injured player from a team’s regular rotation out of the line-up completely for a do-or-die, quasi-elimination game … and, somehow, believe that HIS ABSENCE will actually help his team get a W in that game.

Well, you know what?

NOT IN THIS INSTANCE!

If the Raptors are forced to use a tight 8-Man rotation which looks like this:

it says here that Toronto WILL WIN TONIGHT’S GAME AGAINST THE CHICAGO BULLS …

because using Antoine Wright, as a defensive specialist … when he isn’t very good on defense, to begin with, AND is absolutely horrid on offense, MOST of the time … is actually a huge detriment to the Raptors ever being able to win any game against a decent-to-good opponent when their team could instead be giving his PT to:

a. Sonny Weems, or
b. Hedo Turkoglu, or
c. DeMar DeRozan, or
d. Marco Belinelli,

at the same time as it is also giving increased PT to Amir Johnson [i.e. an athletic rebounder/defender] and Rasho Nesterovic [i.e. a non athletic rebounder/defender].

The fact is … not having Antoine Wright in the line-up tonight is a HUGE CASE of “Addition by Subtraction”, in favour of the Raptors.

Chris Black … for whom this corner has a considerable degree of respect …  suggested yesterday that the Raptors would be doing the “right thing”, if they were to insert Reggie Evans/PF into their Starting Unit, given the recent injury sustained by Chris Bosh/PF:

Ball v.1.33

[excerpt #1]

… I think most people would suggest you should just move Johnson into the starting lineup and go from there, however, the more Evans plays, the more the numbers are starting to say something fairly startling. That’s why I think he should start alongside Bargnani. And it’s why I think he should start alongside Bosh when/if the time comes.

Let me build my case:

First off, and in simplest terms: With Evans on the floor, the Raptors outscore their opponents by 2.15 points per 100 possessions (best mark on the team).

Why is that possible? Why does it happen?

[excerpt #2]

… here are Toronto’s big men, listed by their Opponent’s PER:

STAT OF THE DAY CHARGES PER 40 MINUTES - NBA LEADERS

Evans 11.1
Bosh 18.1
Bargnani 19.1
Johnson 19.8
Nesterovic 21.6

Reggie gets after it defensively. And that’s why I think he should start for the remainder of this season and the playoffs.

One more reason Reggie is quickly becoming a favourite of mine, and it’s my Stat of the Day

Nick Collison 1.45
Reggie Evans 1.36
Jose Juan Barea 1.26
Kyle Lowry 1.25
Jared Jeffries 1.20

==========

Q1. Could it, possibly, be that Chris is right about this?

A1. No, unfortunately, in this instance, he is not correct.

Here’s the take from yours truly:

———-

[from the comment section at T.Jose Caldeford]

Chris,

If you check the actual play-by-play data for Reggie Evans’ minutes played so far this season, you should be able to see that he has seen quite a bit of floor time playing Power Forward with Chris Bosh at the Center position.

To expect Reggie Evans’ +/- numbers to remain constant when he’s used in combination with [Andrea] Bargnani or [Amir] Johnson, instead of Chris Bosh, is to fail to understand how the NBA game actually works, based on individual match-ups, mismatches and who exactly is on the floor, both, with and against you.

As difficult [counter-intuitive?] as it might seem …

The Raptors best chance for success in Chris Bosh’s absence would be to:

PG - Play Calderon more minutes over Jack
OG + SF - Use a 3-player rotation of Weems, Turkoglu and DeRozan
PF + C - Use a 3-player rotation of Nesterovic, Bargnani and Johnson

in a tight 8-man rotation

… with support from Antoine Wright/OG-SF, Marco Belinelli/OG-PG and Reggie Evans/PF.

Starting and giving copious amounts of PT to Reggie Evans is NOT the correct answer to the Raptors’ current dilema, when Chris Bosh is the one who is missing from their everyday line-up.

———-

Reggie Evans is a low end PF who:

1. Has a great deal of difficulty finishing around the rim;

2. Is a poor mid-range shooter;

3. Is a non-shot blocker [i.e. similar to other very limited back-up players like Collison-N/PF, Barea/PG, Lowry/PG, Jeffries/PF];

4. Fouls excessively;

5. Is slow-footed in both defensive and offensive transition;

6. Is a poor individual defender, when facing Top Tier opposition;

7. Is a poor individual defender in Pick & Roll/Pop + Hedge situations;

8. Is a poor team defender in Help situations;

9. Is a good “hustle/energy” player that can use his body, physically, to rebound;

and,

10. Gives his “best effort” at all times [i.e. which is highly valued by a hockey-crazed fanbase]. 

Nothing more, and nothing less, than THAT.

———–

It can sometimes be amazing to see just how many NBA observers actually watch the games that take place each night without paying closer attention to who exactly is on the floor, matched-up against what individual check, and with what specific set of teammates beside him, working at what specific positions … despite the increased level of statistical sophistication which exists in today’s on-line hoops community.

Despite what you might have been told by countless others …

including, for example, Dean Oliver, Kevin Pelton, David Berri, Wayne Winston, Dan Rosenbaum, John Hollinger, Justin Kubatko, Neil Paine, and even Daryl Morey, etc.

… when it comes to being able to win the league championship,

Basketball is simply not a game of “macro data analysis”, pertaining to “average” performance levels in a host of existing game-stat categories, by a set of “generic” players, represented through their rotisserie league “production numbers”.

Basketball is a game which is based on a seemingly endless series of individual and inter-connected match-ups and mismatches … that can best be understood through a combination of highly specific “micro data analysis”, relevant “macro data analysis,” and highly developed “basketball acumen”, derived from countless hours of practiced learning, playing, and actually teaching/coaching others how the game is really played [properly?] by the very best players in the world, both, in isolation AND when working in conjunction with teammates, coaches and opponents. 

———-

Hopefully, Jay Triano & Co. will heed the specific suggestions provided here and, in the process, be able to secure enough wins from their 4 remaining regular season games to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Toronto was listed as a 10 point home favourite in their match-up against the LA Clippers last night.

Despite the size of this “number”, the Raptors were also the “best selection” on the NBA board, according to yours truly.

LA Clippers [27-48] 92
TORONTO RAPTORS [37-37] 114
Complete Game Info

QUESTION
For what specific reasons?

ANSWER

From the Clippers’ Perspective

1. The Clippers were playing without their Starting Point Guard, i.e. Baron Davis, which left the combination of Steve Blake and Bobby Brown to match-up with Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack.

MAJOR ADVANTAGE for TORONTO

2. The Clippers were playing in the 2nd half of an away-away back-2-back, i.e. @ Milwaukee [Tue, Loss, 89-107] and @ Toronto [Wed], while the Raptors were playing after having an off day on Tuesday [following their win, at Charlotte, on Monday].  

MAJOR ADVANTAGE for TORONTO

3. Since firing Mike Dunleavy, first, as their head coach, and second, as their GM, the Clippers have been operating with an unproven leadership team [i.e. Kim Hughes and Neil Olshey, respectively], at the helm of their franchise. 

MINOR ADVANTAGE for TORONTO

From the Raptors’ Perspective

If you take a close look at the Substitution Chart for the 2nd half of last night’s game:

and, the Plus-Minus Charts for Specific Pairs of Raptors Players:

… what you should be able to see is that:

4. Since adjusting their Principal Rotation, by shifting:

PART I - Jarrett Jack/PG;
PART II - DeMar DeRozan/OG [but still giving the rookie plenty of valuable playing time, especially, with all-star Chris Bosh]; and,
PART III - Hedo Turkoglu/SF;

to their 2nd Unit, and inserting:

PART I - Jose Calderon/PG;
PART II - Sonny Weems/OG; and,
PART III - Antoine Wright/SF;

in their place, with the 1st Unit, the Raptors have re-worked the blend of Defense, Rebounding and Offense with their team, in a way that creates better balance, overall, and places increased emphasis on the specific contributions of certain players who are less focused on scoring.

MAJOR ADVANTAGE for TORONTO

5. Specifically, this shift in personnel has allowed the Raptors to:

i. Use Sonny Weems/OG and DeMar DeRozan/SF together, along with either Jose Calderon/PG [i.e. not a line-up they have used frequently this season, despite the repeated urgings of yours truly ] or Jarrett jack/PG;

ii. Use Demar DeRozan for an increased number of minutes in the 2nd half [Amen!];

iii. Use Sonny Weems [athletic] + DeMar DeRozan [athletic] + Jarrett Jack [athletic] + Reggie Evans/Amir Johnson [good rebounders], in conjunction with Andrea Bargnani [non-athletic, non-defending, non-rebounder], if/when Chris Bosh is off the floor [Hallelujah!];

and,

iv. Improve their overall ability to match-up effectively with individual opponents, at each of the 5 positions, in a specific game, without simply adhering to the rigid confines of a carved-in-stone line-up that has:

A. Hedo Turkoglu/SF,
B. Andrea Bargnani/C, and
C. Jose Calderon/PG

… each of whom is a liability on the defensive end of the floor …

together in the same “1st Unit” which is used to:

* Begin each game
* Begin each 2nd Half, and
* Finish every game.

MAJOR ADVANTAGE for TORONTO

6. Chris Bosh [i.e. 34 Pts; 11 Rebs; +13] is a much better basketball player than, either, Chris Kaman [22 Pts; 13 Rebs; -18] or DeAndre Jordan [i.e. 3 Pts; 3 Rebs; -27].

MAJOR ADVANTAGE for TORONTO

—————————–

The simple fact is …

Despite their many struggles of the past few weeks, right now, the Raptors are a much better team than the sad-sack LA Clippers.