khandor’s sports blog

What a certain so-called ‘basketball expert’ has said recently about the plight of the New York Knicks and the future possibility of Phil Jackson becoming their head coach for next season:

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Chris Palmer on twitter

Carmelo & Amar’e – 2011: 51.6 ppg; 2012: 39 ppg

27 minutes ago

Phil Jackson and the 2012 Knicks would be perfect for each other.

No team with as much talent as the Knicks should have a losing record. Ever.
about 1 hour ago

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… could not, possibly, be further from the truth.

Simple facts regarding the New York Knicks and Phil Jackson:

#1. James Dolan, historically, has been a meddlesome owner.

#2. At this stage in his life, Phil Jackson – at 67 years of age – has zero need to work for a meddlesome owner.

#3. New York presently has only 2 players who would fit readily with a Phil Jackson coached team: i. Landry Fields; and, ii. Iman Shumpert; as solid, multidimensional, players.

#4. Specifically, Amare Stoudemire [i.e. as a Pick & Roll and Isolation Big, exclusively], Carmelo Anthony [i.e. as an Isolation Forward, exclusively], Tyson Chandler [i.e. Defensively-focused Center, exclusively], Jeremy Lin [i.e. as a defensively weak starting PG], JR Smith [i.e. as a Perimeter 'jacker', exclusively], and Baron Davis [i.e. as a defensively weak back-up PG] are the anti-thesis of what could be accurately described as “a good fit player for the Triangle Offense“, based on their individual skill sets.

#5. Although Mike D’Antoni has, indeed, done a poor job of dealing with the myriad egos on the Knicks, since Carmelo Anthony has returned to their active line-up … in no way should Phil Jackson – and the Triangle Offense – be seen as an elixir to their present [and future] ailments.

If New York Knicks actually want to hire a highly experienced NBA championship winning coach with a different mind-set than Mike D’Antoni, who has a history of working well with established veterans and would be a decent fit with their current roster they should think seriously about one of their own former coaches, i.e. Mr. Larry Brown.

Q. How good can the New York Knicks become, if they get 100% healthy?

A. With the addition of a solid, good-sized, PG like Jeremy Lin, and a full line-up that looks like this:

OWNER – James Dolan

GENERAL MANAGER – Glen Grunwald

HEAD COACH – Mike D’Antoni

STARTERS

PG, Jeremy Lin [acquired December 27, 2012]
OG, Landry Fields
SF, Carmelo Anthony
PF, Amare Stoudemire
C, Tyson Chandler

KEY SUBS

PG, Baron Davis
OG, Iman Shumpert
SF, Bill Walker
PF, Jared Jeffries
C, Steve Novak

RESERVES/EXTRAS/OUTS

PG, Toney Douglas
PG, Mike Bibby
PF, Renaldo Balkman
PF/C, Josh Harrellson
C, Jerome Jordan

New York should be good enough to qualify for the playoffs and, perhaps, advance to the EC semi-finals.

The Toronto Raptors might not find themselves in a better “road win”, or “close road loss,” situation for the rest of this season than what should exist for their contest this evening against the New York Knicks:

given that:

i. Amare Stoudemire [PF/C] missed New York’s most recent game against Sacramento Kings with a sprained ankle;

ii. Baron Davis [PG] has not yet joined the Knicks’ rotation;

iii. The Knicks will be playing their first game at home after just returning from a mini West Coast road trip; and,

iii. The wagering line for this game, as of 1:00 PM ET, was New York Knicks -8.5/-102.

If Dwane Casey is, in fact, as good a coach as this corner thinks he is, then, this game should eventually play out as a “near perfect” scenario for the long term health of the Raptors franchise, i.e. with the visitors playing a highly competitive brand of physical basketball [Win], before losing by less than 8 points [Lose] and, simultaneously, improving their chances of securing a high end selection in the NBA’s 2012 Draft Lottery [Win].

The long term goal of any professional sports franchise should be to win its League Championship … and, the best way for the Raptors to acquire the type of marquee talent necessary to become a legitimate contender in the NBA, one day in the not-too-distant future, is by losing games like this and, thereby, finishing in 30th, 29th or 28th place in the final standings this season.

After playing their first 11 games this year, the New York Knicks’ W-L Record was 3-8/.273.

Over the course of their next 14 games, however, the Knicks’ W-L Record has looked like this:

Q1. What precipitated the Knicks turn around this season?

A1. In sharp contrast to what different “stats gurus” have said about the Knicks so far this year …

Decoding the Knicks Secret Rebuilding Plan

The Least Productive Player in the NBA Today is One of the Most Expensive

Using Math to Predict the 2010-2011 Season and the NBA’s Math Doesn’t Add Up

The chief reason reason New York has improved so dramatically over the course of their first 25 games is because, in Game 11, Mike D’Antoni finally made the right decision and re-structured the rotation of his team, by:

i. Shifting Amare Stoudemire [6-10, 240] to his best position, i.e. Center;

ii. Shifting Danilo Gallinari [6-10, 225] to the Power Forward position;

and, 

iii. Re-defining the role of Timofey Mozgov [7-0, 1st-yr], who had functioned as their starting Center to that point in the season.

If you examine the Game Logs for Mr. Mozgov, you should be able to see that he started each of New York’s first 7 games this year; then, was used off the bench for Game 8 and Game 9, and returned to the starting line-up for Game 10 and 11.

In Game 11, however … according to the Play-By-Play … he was only used for 11:00+, and was not re-inserted into game after being substituted for by Ronny Turiaf [PF-C] at the 7:31 mark of the 3rd quarter:

1st Quarter, 12:00, Nyk 0, DEN 0
1st Quarter, 07:28, Nyk 9, DEN 13 [-4/4:32]
—————————————————–
2nd Quarter, 03:49, Nyk 43, DEN 50
2nd Quarter, 01:05, Nyk 51, DEN 59 [-1/2:44]
—————————————————–
3rd Quarter, 12:00, Nyk 54, DEN 61
3rd Quarter, 07:31, Nyk 64, DEN 72 [-1/4:29]

Even though the Knicks went on to lose this game to the Nuggets, it marked The  Turning Point in New York’s season. 

The next day, at Sacramento, the Knicks implemented their “new” rotation for the first time:

Since re-working their rotation, in the midst of Game 11, the Knicks have won 13 games and lost only 1 game.

While it has also been the case that the Knicks have benefitted from playing a relatively easy schedule during this same section of their schedule …

i.e. of these past 14 games only 3 have been against teams with winning W-L Records; Game 12, L @ DEN, Game 18, L vs Atl, and Game 25, W vs Den

… it will be very interesting to see if New York can maintain a positive W-L Record while moving into the next phase of their schedule, where they will encounter a higher class of opponent on a consistent basis:

including:

* 9 opponents with a .500+ W-L Record [in red]

* 3 opponents with a W-L Record that is only 1 game below .500 [in yellow]

* 1 opponent with a W-L Record that is well below .500 [in green]

Yes, the Knicks management team – i.e. Donnie Walsh & Mike D’Antoni – made a series of solid personnel decisions this past off season, including:

- the selection of Landry Fields, in the 2nd Round of the 2010 NBA Draft

- the signing of Amare Stoudemire, as a solid 2nd Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

- the signing of Raymond Felton, as a solid 3rd Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

- the acquisition of Anthony Randolph [SF-PF], Ronny Turiaf [PF-C] and Kelenna Azubuike [OG-SF], in a 3-for-1 trade with the Golden State Warriors [in return for David Lee, PF-C]

- the signing of Timofey Mozgov [C], as a relatively unknown player from the Euro-league

- the signing of Roger Mason, Jr. [PG-OG], as a 4th Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

- the signing of Shawne Williams [PF-SF], as a 5th Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

But the harsh, cold, objective reality of what’s entailed with everyday life in the NBA is that none of those individual – and collective - moves would have mattered one iota, unless their embattled head coach, Mike D’Antoni, also had the good Basketball Sense to re-structure their entire rotation AROUND the skill-set of Amare Stoudemire, while playing him at the Center position; and, not the PF position where so many other non-expert NBA observers mistakenly think ’Stat’ belongs, given his perceived ‘lack of size’, compared to the biggest players in the league who happen to work at this same position.

This type of highly specific, decisive, unconventional and accurate thinking is part of what is commonly referenced here as the work of a Top Notch practicioner in the field of Basketball Coaching.

Kudos to Mike D’Antoni … for replicating the basic systemic footprint he first established with the Phoenix Suns 6 years ago. 

Authentic genius does not involve going out on a proverbial limb.

Authentic genius involves simply identifying accurately:

[i] What actually works, in a given situation

vs

[ii] What actually does not work, in that same [or, at least, a very similar] situation

before others are able to reach a similar conclusion.

[e.g. Please note the reply comment to "Raptorsss", July 28th, 2010, at 10:55 PM, re: the projected Starting Centers in the EC this season, and the proper roles for Amare Stoudemire and Timofey Mozgoz with Mike D'Antoni's Knicks. ] 

Related:

Why Is Amare Stoudemire So Hard To Defend?

After last night’s game against the Knicks [in New York], the Raptors’ W-L record is 8-14/.364 … which puts Toronto in 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, and in 10th place, overall, in the Eastern Conference.

NBA Standings [as of Wed Dec 9 2010]

What is particularly noteworthy about last night’s game is the following “stat line” for the Raptors’ Starting Center:

and the fact that he established a new “career high” for Points Scored, while being “efficient”, collecting 7 Rebounds and amassing an Assist-to-Turnover Ratio of 6:1.

What should also be observed, however, are the following facts:

1. As the game progressed, Amare Stoudemire [C] gradually turned into a one man wrecking crew for New York. 

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1st Quarter - 2 Points Scored, 1-1/FGM-FGA, 1 Ast, 2 PF

He was charged with his 2nd personal foul at the 5:20 mark and sat out the balance of the frame. 

2nd Quarter – 6 Points Scored, 2-9/FGM-FGA, 2-2/FTM-FTA, 4 Reb, 1 Ast, 2 TO, 0 PF

He played tentatively for all 12 minutes, in order to avoid picking up a 3rd foul.

3rd Quarter - 8 Points Scored, 3-4/FGM-FGA, 2-2/FTM-FTA, 5 Reb, 1 TO, 1 PF

He began to assert himself more at the offensive end of the floor.

4th Quarter - 18 Points Scored, 9-13/FGM-FGA, 5 Reb, 2 PF

He dominated the game, as the Knicks’ most effective offensive weapon, for whom the Raptors had no answer.

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2. Bargnani finished with a “Score Differential” of -8.

3. Stoudemire finished with a “Score Differential” of +6.

4. In terms of “Score Differential”, there was a swing of 14 points in New York’s favour at the Center position. 

5. Bargnani’s ”Score Differential” [-8] was the worst on the Raptors.

6. Stoudemire’s “Score Differential” [+6] was the 3rd best on the Knicks [i.e. trailing Landry Fields/+9 and Danilo Gallinari/+14.

7. The Raptors lost this game.

8. Bargnani is 25 years old.

9, Stoudemire is 28 years old.

If one of the basic tenets of a sound financial investment strategy truly is adhering to the following principle:

"Buy Low and Sell High."

Then, the two questions which NEED to be asked today, from the perspective of the Raptors' management team, are the following:

I. "What is the best trade package any team in the NBA would make available to Toronto, if the Raptors were to actually put Andrea Bargnani on the auction block, prior to their home game tomorrow night against the Denver Nuggets?"

and,

II. In the aftermath of making THAT specific transaction ...

What would the Raptors' future upside actually be, if they then decided to:

i. Use the remainder of their TPE [obtained from Miami] just prior to the February Trade Deadline;

and,

ii. Build their future team around the following Core Group of players:

i. Ed Davis [future Starting PF]
ii. DeMar DeRozan [future Starting OG]
iii. Asset #1, obtained in the trade for Bargnani
iv. Asset #2, obtained in the trade for Bargnani
v. Amir Johnson [future Back-up PF]
vi. Jose Calderon [temporary Starting PG; future Back-up PG]
vii. Jerryd Bayless [temporary Back-up PG; future Starting PG]
viii. Asset # 3 [i.e. 1st Round Selection, TBD, 2011 NBA Draft, obtained from Miami]

in conjunction with the following list of moveable assets:

ix. Linas Kleiza, or Julian Wright [future Back-up SF]
x. Sonny Weems [future Back-up OG]
xi. Asset #4, obtained in the future trade involving Leandro Barbosa [UFA, 2011]
xii. Asset #5, obtained in the future trade involving Reggie Evans [UFA, 2011]
xiii. Asset #6, obtained in the future trade involving Peja Stojakovic
xiv. Solomon Alabi [2nd Round Selection, 2010 NBA Draft]
xv. Joey Dorsey [2nd Round Selection, 2009 NBA Draft] 

… in comparison with holding onto Bargnani for the remainder of his current contract?

——————————

Please submit your specific trade proposal[s] in the comments section.

[... and, if anyone does submit an intriguing trade package for Bargnani, rest assured that it will form the basis of a subsequent future post on ksb. ] 

From the perspective of this corner …

If the Raptors really do wish to compete for a League Championship in the not-too-distant future

… now would actually be a fantastic time to “take a real swing for the fences” – in hopes of substantially upgrading their Team Defense and Rebounding at the OG, SF and C positions – by trading away their most marketable asset, in exchange for a legitimate chance to build a Top 4 Team in the Eastern Conference within the next 3-5 seasons. 

Approximately 13 months ago, the following question was asked in this space, in a poll:

Where will Andrea Bargnani rank in the Eastern Conference next season, as a Center? … You Make The Call

pertaining to the 2009-2010 season.

As the Raptors complete their seemingly annual summer make-over, under the watch of Bryan Colangelo/GM, in preparation for the 2010-2011 campaign, it is interesting to see how the landscape is shaping up in the Eastern Conference, when evaluating the individual players who might be expected to start at the Center position for their respective teams:

PART 1 – Based On Basketball Acumen

PART 2 - Painting By the Numbers [from hoopdata for the 2009-2010]

From Toronto’s perspective …

The more some things change, the more other things simply stay the same.

After sliding down into the NBA’s Draft Lottery last year …

What exactly has happened with the Phoenix Suns this season to propel their team back toward the top end of the Western Conference?

1 Robert Sarver … once vilified as a “spendthrift” owner, to the worst degree … is now perceived as a “champion of the people.”

2 Steve Nash is still a terrific offensive Point Guard and a first-class leader.

3 Grant Hill is still a consumate professional.

4 Amare Stoudemire is still a dynamic force at the Center position.

5 Leandro Barbosa is still a whirling dervish capable of providing instant offense.

6 Robin Lopez – drafted [No. 15] by S-Kerr summer 2008
7 Goran Dragic – acquired via Draft Day trade [No. 45] by S-Kerr summer 2008 
8 Louis Amundson - added by S-Kerr summer 2008
9 Jason Richardson – acquired via trade by S-Kerr 2008-2009 season
10 Jared Dudley – acquired via trade by S-Kerr 2008-2009 season
11 Earl Clark – drafted [No. 14] by S-Kerr summer 2009
12 Alvin Gentry – appointed head coach by S-Kerr 2008-2009 season
13 Taylor Griffin – drafted [No. 48] by S-Kerr summer 2009
14 Channing Frye – added by S-Kerr summer 2009
15 Jarron Collins – Added by S-Kerr fall 2009
16 Dwayne Jones – added by S-Kerr 2009-2010 season

* Bold – individuals who are sound defensively and in terms of rebounding.

October 24 2008, this is what was written in this space about Steve Kerr, the current GM of the Phoenix Suns:

Making the correct decisions in the Valley of the Sun

April 28 2009, this is what was written in this space about the immediate future of the Phoenix Suns, under the direction of Steve Kerr:

Where the Suns go from here, under Steve Kerr

12 months later …

After sweeping their 2nd Round Playoff series againgst arch-nemesis, San Antonio, today, Phoenix is basking in the glow of a return trip to the Western Conference Finals … courtesy of the fine work done by STEVE KERR. 

If you do not happen to know exactly who Steve Kerr is … and what his personal history happens to entail … then you should take a minute to read THIS and, then, understand fully that – in the opinion of yours truly – he has the make-up [i.e. the basketball pedigree, the list of basketball-related accomplishments and the personal attributes] of someone who is going to be an outstanding General Manager in the NBA for an extended number of years with his commitment to a Balanced Approach to the game.

Related:

Phoenix Suns News

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 18 – vs Phoenix [Sun Nov 29]

Originally, this was a game which yours truly thought the Raptors could/should/would win during this initial stretch of 20 games to start the season … that is … until the individual match-ups were examined in closer detail, especially, in the light of last night’s exhibition games vs Boston [aka, Hedo Turkoglu's debut with the Raptors] and Portland [for Phoenix].

The pre-season injury to Robin Lopez is going to impair the Suns’ ability to match-up physically in the post with a number of teams in the league this year. However, at the same time, Suns’ opponents are going to have their hands full coping with the different/unusual 5-man combinations which Phoenix will now be able to put on the floor together, playing at a very high tempo [e.g. last night Phoenix closed their game with Nash + Barbosa + Dudley + Frye + Stoudemire]. 

When healthy, this group of Suns is going to be too much for the Raptors to handle, given that:

1 The only match-up advantage in Toronto’s favour is Chris Bosh; 

2 The Raptors’ defense and rebounding will continue to struggle this season with the addition of Turkoglu; and,

3 The Suns are now capable of shooting the lights out with the 3-ball.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 6-12

Finally … a stats guru speaks who is at least on the right track.

How stats apply to individual match-ups for elite level NBA coaches
WW: Tracy McGrady is a player who has never helped his team as much as people thought. Allen Iverson — for one or two years he was really good.

The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.

Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.

(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)

There’s a bunch of guys like that.

Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)

Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.

HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t. 

WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.

But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.

It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.

If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.

Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright.  He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible. 

Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.

Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.

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THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.

Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!

PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play?  Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.

PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.

PPPS. Btw … What Wayne Winston had to say in this piece about there being no distinction necessary between the use of players like Brandon Bass [#4/PF] and Dirk Nowitzki [#5/C], on the court together, regardless of their position, and the effect/thinking of Mike D’Antoni, just happens to be wrong.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 10– @ Phoenix [Sun Nov 15]

The Suns are a much more stable team this season, provided they have a healthy Stoudemire at the Center position, with 8 of their first 10 players as returnees from last year’s squad. If Earl Clark turns out to be as good as this corner thinks he is going to be … i.e. a starting calibre #3/SF, who can score the ball, defend and rebound his position effectively … Phoenix will have a very solid rotation that’s 10-men deep and capable of playing well at a high tempo for the entire season. In this specific spot on their schedule, the Raptors will most likely be over-matched in a high scoring shootout.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 4-6