khandor’s sports blog

Mismatches are not magic

Early in the Sixers loss to the visiting Blazers, Portland had an obvious mismatch. The 6-7 Martell Webster was being guarded by the smallest guy on the court, Allen Iverson, who is listed as 6-0 but was once described by then-teammate Aaron McKie as 5-10, which seems plausible.

Webster can shoot from the outside, and is strong and athletic enough to score in the paint. In theory, he could feast on a small defender.

The Blazers force-fed Webster again and again. The smaller Iverson battled. “Just trying to fight him early,” said Iverson after the game. “Trying to push him out as much as possible, and front him if I had to.” He also used some veteran tricks. Not once, but twice on an early play Iverson yelled and threw his body around, pretending Webster had fouled him.

The referees weren’t buying it.

Webster went to work.

He ran Iverson off screens, Reggie Miller-style. He posted up. He shot long jumpers. He fought into the paint.

And just about none of it worked. Webster missed a layup. He made a mid-range jumper. He missed a 3. He missed a tip-in. He missed a short jumper.

In one telling play, Webster posted Iverson, rushed a move into the helping Samuel Dalembert, and missed a tough shot over the longest arms on the court.

Another time, the Blazers fought to get Webster the ball in the corner and looked to create something off the dribble. But he didn’t have a lot of room to operate, and ended up having to escape to the top of the key. By the time he determined there were no easy shots for him, he swung the ball into a shot-clock violation.

After all that, Portland was down six, and had scored just five points in the game’s first five minutes. Webster missed one more shot, then Portland stopped going to Webster.

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The fact is …

Just because:

Martell Webster is 6 feet 7 inches, and weighs 235 lbs,

while,

Allen Iverson is 6 feet 0 inches, and weighs 165 lbs,

it does not mean Portland’s young buck has a skill-based advantage in an array of different areas within his individual game that supercedes those of Mr. Iverson’s.

According to the Full Play-By-Play and the details provided by Henry Abbott:

BEGIN - 1st Quarter, 12:00
No. 1, Webster missed a 2PT layup. [10:52]
No. 2, He made a 2PT jump shot. [09:09]
No. 3, He missed a 3PT jump shot. [08:42]
Rebound: Offensive [08:26]
No. 4, He missed a 2PT tip-in shot. [08:26]
No. 5, He missed a 2PT jump shot. [07:37]
Turnover: Shot Clock Violation [07:05]
Personal Foul vs Iguodala, shooting [06:52]
No. 6, He missed a 2PT jump shot. [06:35]
END - 1st Quarter, 04:56, Subbed Out

BEGIN - 3rd Quarter, 12:00
No. 7, He missed a 2PT jump shot, blocked shot by Iguodala. [11:37]
No. 8, He missed a 2PT jump shot. [10:09]
Rebound: Defensive [03:48]
No. 9, He missed a 2PT dunk shot, blocked shot by Dalembert. [02:56]
Personal Foul vs Iverson, shooting. [02:50]
END - 3rd Quarter, 02:31, Subbed Out

BEGIN - 4th Quarter, 00:41.1
END - 4th Quarter, 00:00

———————————–

QUESTION
Where, exactly, would you say Martell Webster has an individual match-up advantage over Allen Iverson?

… since, according to Nate McMillan’s own words:

“Martell is not normally on the block for us. We wanted to make Iverson work some, so they didn’t just rest him. We wanted to go into the post with our guards … we tried Martell a few times.

You don’t want to take yourself out of rhythm by going to a guy who’s not normally in that position. We went to it a couple times, but we felt like we were trying to force some things there and we went away from that, and went back to what we normally do.”

ANSWER

Part I

If you look at the NBA Hotspots Chart for Martell Webster, to-date, what you should be able to see is that he is actually shooting/scoring the ball relatively poorly from a host of different spots on the floor … including:

A. From an interior location:

#3. Middle Lane 2PT shots, 1-6/.167
#4. Right Low Block 2PT shots, 0-6/.000

B. From a mid-range location:

#6. Left Elbow 2PT jump shots, 2-8/.250
#7. Free Throw Line 2PT jump shots, 1-5/.200
#9. Right Wing 2PT jump shots, 3-12/.250

and,

C. From a perimeter location:

#13. Right Angled 3PT jump shots, 17-54/.315

with the exceptions being …

A. From an interior location:

#1. Layups/dunks/tip-in shots, 49-93/.527
#2. Left Low Block 2PT shots, 5-9/.556

and, predominantly, well AWAY from the basket area …

B. From a mid-range location:

#5. Left Wing 2PT jump shots, 10-23/.435
#8. Right Elbow 2PT jump shots, 6-13/.462

and,

C. From a perimeter location:

#10. Left Corner 3PT jump shots, 19-52/.365
#11. Left Angled 3PT jump shots, 14-37/.378
#12. Middle Top 3PT jump shots, 9-19/.474
#14. Right Corner 3PT jump shots, 18-42/.429

Part II

A mismatch advantage CAN ONLY OCCUR in a specific aspect of the game where:

* Player X is being checked by Player Y; and, 
* Player X has a skill-based advantage, compared to Player Y …

- because that particular skill is a regular part of what Player X brings to the table each and every time he plays the game against an opponent who is similar to Player Y

- within the specific context of how Player X’s team usually operates.

———————————–

Yes, indeed, the NBA game is about …

Effectively:

i] Creating individual match-up advantages;

ii] Exploiting individual match-up advantages; and,

iii] Minimizing individual mis-match disadvantages;

in order to create high percentage open shots:

A. Within the context of a specific game; and,

B. According to the specific strengths and weaknesses of the involved players …

but - first and foremost - it is absolutely crucial to actually know what exactly qualifies as a legitimate mis-match advantage when Team 1 plays against Team 2 and Player X is assigned to check Player Y.

As such, Martell Webster vs Allen Iverson does not qualify as a favourable mismatch advantage for the Blazers vs the 76ers, UNLESS MR. WEBSTER IS ACTUALLY BEING USED PROPERLY, by Nate McMillan, through a series of:

I. Post-ups in the Left Low Block position; and,

II. Weak side spot up opportunities when the ball is …

* Fed into the Low Post position and then kicked out

or,

* Driven into the interior of the defense and then kicked out

to Webster, specifically, for mid-range/perimeter jump shots over a much smaller defender, after several passes have already been made by his teammates.

For the former Georgetown Hoya … who hopes that he can save the 76ers’ season and re-ignite his own career … D-Day is tonight.

“I know I can still play and I’m gonna prove that.”
- Allen Iverson [Thu Dec 03 2009]

———————————

PS. The wagering propositions available for this evening’s game are as follows:

Team

Individual

A free NBA Selection, compliments of KSS: OVER/+142

Enjoy! 

Related:

76ers’ Iverson likely to start Monday

PART ONE

Of all the still frame shots of Michael Jordan, this one just might be the best of all time:

[courtesy of thehoopdoctors.com]

When an elite level basketball coach speaks of maintaining “Defensive Intensity and Positioning”, relative to the ball-handler, this is exactly what s/he means.

The expression on AI’s face … being checked by Tha Man, back in 1996 … is absolutely priceless.

PART TWO

Just in case there are those who still doubt that “explosive quickness relative to the position played” is, in fact, the most important physical attribute a basketball player can have … all you need to do is view this video montage of The Answer in his NBA infancy.

With the passage of time, it can be all too easy to lose sight of just how good each of these cats actually were at their very best.

Finally … a stats guru speaks who is at least on the right track.

How stats apply to individual match-ups for elite level NBA coaches
WW: Tracy McGrady is a player who has never helped his team as much as people thought. Allen Iverson — for one or two years he was really good.

The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.

Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.

(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)

There’s a bunch of guys like that.

Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)

Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.

HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t. 

WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.

But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.

It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.

If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.

Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright.  He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible. 

Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.

Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.

———————————

THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.

Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!

PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play?  Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.

PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.

PPPS. Btw … What Wayne Winston had to say in this piece about there being no distinction necessary between the use of players like Brandon Bass [#4/PF] and Dirk Nowitzki [#5/C], on the court together, regardless of their position, and the effect/thinking of Mike D’Antoni, just happens to be wrong.

Continuing the series which was started here yesterday on … 

How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year:

Game 2 – at Memphis [Fri Oct 30]

This is a key early game for the Raptors indicating where the team’s talent level actually stands in relation to the mid-lower tier teams in the Western Conference expected to miss the playoffs this season. If the Raptors can win this game on the road against an opponent of this calibre it will be a good sign. If not …  

After opening their schedule at home vs Detroit [Wed Oct 28], Memphis should be highly motivated to play well in this match-up.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 0-2

There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:

Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.

In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.

So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.

———-

By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]

OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]

SMALL FORWARDS
* None

POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]

CENTERS
* Johan Petro [#4]

The QUESTION is … for, let’s say, approximately $6.4 M … 

What two NBA franchises would Allen Iverson, possibly, be the best fit with at this stage of his career?

[i.e. based strictly on their respective player rosters and regardless of any Salary Cap/Luxury Tax restraints on a 1 year contract]

SCENARIO ONE

If the Cavaliers are truly serious about trying to win the 2009-2010 NBA Championship, then Cleveland needs to ratchet up its Offense with a line-up that looks like this:

STARTERS
PG - Allen Iverson [UFA, high cost]
OG - Anthony Parker [UFA, medium cost]
SF - Lebron James
PF - Anderson Varejao
C - Shaquille O’Neal

KEY SUBS
PG/OG - Mo Williams or Daniel Gibson
OG/SF - Keith Bogans [UFA, low cost]
SF/PF - JJ Hickson
C - Zydrunas Ilgauskas 

———-

SCENARIO TWO

If the Heat are truly serious about trying to reach the 2009-2010 NBA Finals, then Miami needs to ratchet up its Offense with a line-up like this is:

STARTERS
PG - Allen Iverson [UFA, high cost]
OG - Dwyane Wade
SF - Jamario Moon [UFA, low cost]
PF - Udonis Haslem
C - Jermaine O’Neal  

KEY SUBS
PG - Mario Chalmers
OG - Daequan Cook
SF - Michael Beasley
PF - Joel Anthony
C -  Chris Mihm [UFA, low cost]

———-

For a single season … a move like that would still leave Miami and/or Cleveland in the free agent sweepstakes expected to take place next summer [i.e. 2010] … while giving their respective teams a definite boost this year, in an effort to reach their specific goal.

Are either of these two situations likely to occur next month?

Hmmmm …

[Probably not ... although either one would certainly be very interesting to see materialize this summer.]

In advance of this evening’s RAPTORS/Pistons match-up …

Here’s a little Food For Thought tidbit, courtesy of a thread at the RaptorsRepublic.com, which is now the best “Dino’s fan site” available on-line, and linked with the TrueHoop Network: An ESPN Affiliate.

Enjoy!

================================================

Rasheed to Drink Bosh’s Milkshake 
The Line

VegasInsider.com has the game as a “Pick to Pistons -1″.

Prediction

Pistons, might be close, but a loss is a loss. Not even thinking of calling a Raptor win after what we saw against Philly…must have been high to make that pick…

Comment #3, by khandor [that's yours truly ]

—————————————
re: Comment #1.

PISTONS -1………… CALL YOUR LOCAL BOOKIE….

THAT’S FREE MONEY….. - by Lock of the Week
—————————————

Not that the Pistons aren’t the Right Way to go in this match-up, at that number, but those who might be so inclined to wager a share of their own hard-earned $$$ on the outcome of a professional sports event with a set margin margin of victory involved should always remember that …

When something looks too good to be true [in life], all too frequently, it is …

with the actual/eventual outcome being “opposite” to what most would have expected, in advance.

————————
Prime Example #1. “This is our best Raptors’ team put together yet, on paper.” - Bryan Colangelo

During the pre-season, The Prospective Total Season Wins for the Raptors this year was:

OVER 47.5/+100
UNDER 47.5/-116

Given the “look” of things back then … and “the noise” coming out of Raptorville,

“Where would YOUR $$$ have gone, at the time?”

[i.e. on the Over or the Under] 

————————

Invest your $$$ sensibly, in a balanced way … and, when tough times hit, you should be able to ride them out, relatively pain-free, in comparison with those who are wreckless, and inappropriately over-emphasized in any one phase of the game, or the other, in a short term way, to their own detriment, on a long term basis.

There are three distinct phases to the game of basketball, i.e. Offense, Defense & Rebounding, and a High [Yield-?] End Team is capable of working all three in a productive way, when need be.

There are other attractive investment opportunities on the NBA dockett this evening, as well. Do not fixate on just this one, because it might “look too good to be true”.

Caveat Emptor!

————————

PS. If you’d been fortunate enough to listen to a certain blogger … who is also a Raptors fan, amongst other things … back in October, you would have known, at least, the following two things:

#1. The UNDER was the Right Way to go on the Raptors this season, at 47.5/-116;

while,

#2. The LA Lakers, OVER 54.5/-126, was IN FACT the best bet on the board, in the NBA Futures, that day.

Enjoy this evening’s game against Detroit, one and all.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. - Anonymous

[There ain't nothing, in Life, more True than THAT!]

There’s a good reason yours truly constructed these two separate player lists … A [Dec 19, 2007] & B [Jan 30, 2008] … during the 2007-2008 NBA season.

———————————

Billups leaving bigger impression: Pistons, fans now feeling guard’s loss

Here, he was Mr. Big Shot, the calming leader, but as the Pistons failed to reprise their championship, Billups’ postseason performance came under scrutiny. To be frank, the Pistons didn’t appear capable of winning it all as assembled, and some people even think Dumars waited too long to break them up, which is ridiculous.

At 32, with six terrific seasons here, Billups thinks they were broken up too soon, which is debatable.

“Yep, I do,” he said. “People said I’d gotten old, but I truly believe, if I hadn’t gotten hurt (hamstring), we’d have beaten Boston and won another championship.”

———————————

13 months later … and, all things being equal … this corner is in complete agreement with Chauncey Billups’ interpretation of what actually transpired during the 2008 Eastern Conference Playoffs and still considers him to be one of the very best Point Guards in the NBA today.

Back on Dec 8 2009 … THIS is what was suggested in this corner as the most effective solution to Pistons’ problem[s] this season, since their acquisition of Allen Iverson and the departure of Chauncey Billups.

One of the key tenets of this corner is the notion that …

There is seldom, if ever, just ONE effective solution to a Problem in Life, and never ever should one consider oneself to be stuck permanently in a LOSE-Lose [i.e. NO WIN] situation.

On the contrary, this corner believes whole-heartedly that, in fact, there are at least TWO WAYS to accomplish an objective in this world, in most cases, and there is always An Effective WAY OUT of a situation which might otherwise appear to be a lost cause … if one puts one’s thinking cap on, has some fun, works smart, works together with others, and thinks in a manner which others might consider to be unconventional [i.e. outside-the-box].

To wit:

Please see, 1.The Life Truth of The Kobayashi Maru; 2. What it means to Not Believe in the No-Win Scenario, in the first place; and, 3. What to do when caught with your britches down.

=========================

Since the Pistons have refused to implement Option 1, thus far, it is now incumbent upon their basketball brain-trust to search for, and then implement, an Option 2.

——————————–

Whether Michael Curry, Joe Dumars, or Rodney Stuckey, likes it or not … the Pistons can still become the 2nd best team in the Eastern Conference, again this season, if they eventually come to the following realization about their team’s mix of players:

#1. PG - Allen Iverson
#2. OG - Rip Hamilton [at least 30 MP and finishing their games]
#3. SF - Tayshaun Prince 
#4. PF - Antonio McDyess
#5. C - Rasheed Wallace
=========
#6. Back-up PG/OG - Rodney Stuckey [ala The Micro-wave]
#7. SF - Arron Afflalo
#8. PF - Amir Johnson/Jason Maxiell
#9. C - Maxiell/Kwame Brown
=========
#10. SF - Walter Herrmann
#11. PF/C - Johnson/Maxiel/Brown
=========
#12. PG - Will Bynum [4th string]

Although their best Group-Of-5 does no longer includes Mr. Iverson at all, given his defensive & rebounding limitations, at this stage of his illustrious career, if he’s used as the Starting PG, exclusively … with The Real Deal in relief of him, in addition to getting extra time at the OG-spot, as a Back-up to Rip … AI would [i] still be able to receive major minutes on this team, and [ii] would not be holding back the long term development of Rodney Stuckey, as the future leader of the Pistons,

who would then still have what it takes to regain their perch beside the Boston Celtics.

——————————

Despite the fact that first-year Head Coach, Michael Curry has not handled his initial crisis with the Pistons in an effective way, how he handles this situation, moving forward from here, is now the second significant test of his leadership with their team.

——————————–

Hopefully he Chooses [more] Wisely this time around.