khandor’s sports blog

Since taking over the operation of the Indiana Pacers, from Donnie Walsh [Mar-24-2008, on a full-time basis, Larry Legend has had to endure a great many insults from NBA observers - experts and non-experts alike - who have asserted that ... although he was an all-time great NBA player ... he was somehow in over his head, as a GM, and incapable of constructing a top flight franchise, based on the quality of his work in that capacity to that point in time.

Well ...

Anyone who tries to tell you THAT today, you should simply laugh at.

3 seasons ago the Pacers added Roy Hibbert [C, 1st Rd Draft Pick] to their roster.

2 seasons ago the Pacers added Tyler Hansbrough [PF, 1st Rd Draft Pick], AJ Price [PG, 2nd Rd Draft Pick] and Dahntay Jones [OG/SF, veteran FA] to their roster.

Last season the Pacers added Paul George [SF/OG, 1st Rd Draft Pick], Lance Stephenson [PG/OG, 2nd Rd Draft Pick] and Darren Collison [PG, 1st Rd Draft Pick/2009, from New Orleans] and James Posey [SF/PF, veteran FA] to their roster … and made the playoffs for the first time in 4 years.

This off-season the Pacers have added George Hill [PG/OG] to their roster, affirmed Larry Bird as the head of their overall operation, affirmed last season’s interim head coach, Frank Vogel, as their permanent bench boss, in addition to naming Brian Shaw his lead assistant … and now, it seems, have also hired Kevin Pritchard, as their erstwhile GM-in-waiting.

As has been mentioned in this space on different occasions over the course of the last 24 months, or so …

The Indiana Pacers are in the midst of performing a successful franchise re-build in a first-class way.

When a NBA team makes the decision to place their trust in someone with the track-record of Larry Bird … and, then, has the wherewithal to stick with him, come h*ll or high water … it will eventually be rewarded in a substantive way.

Kudos to, both, Herb Simon [Pacers owner] and Larry Legend!

Prior to January 30, 2011 the Pacers’ W-L Record was 17-27/.386.

After firing Jim O’Brien, however, the Pacers immediately began to play much better basketball.

Conventional wisdom says that this immediate uptick in performance was simply a temporary upsurge which typically occurs for a relatively short time-period, before regressing to the mean, based on the over-riding abilities of the players on their roster, rather than the abilities of their newly appointed head coach [i.e. Frank Vogel].

Then, when the NBA Trade Deadline came and went …

“Indiana Was Not Able to Get It All Together,” Says Grizzlies Owner About Failed OJ Mayo Trade

UPDATE: Larry Bird on Failed Trade: Deal Pulled Off the Table with Two Minutes to Go

with a failed effort to complete a three-team trade with the Memphis Grizzlies and the New Orleans Hornets which reportedly would have:

Cost Them

- Josh McRoberts/PF [starter]
- Brandon Rush/OG [back-up]
- Solomon Jones/PF-C [back-up]

while,

Netting Them

- OJ Mayo/PG-OG ['quasi' starter]

the Pacers subsequently crashed down to earth in their last 8 games:

and are now, supposedly, experiencing a variety of internal problems:

Larry Bird Criticizes His Players: “We’re Just Not Getting the Effort”

that have caused their team to fail to compete on a game-to-game basis.

============================

Looking closely at what has happened with the Pacers this season, and especially since the events of February 24, 2011 …

Is a simple case of regression to the mean really what has caused this team to lose 7 of their last 8 games?

Mike Dunleavy’s Game Log for the 2010-2011 Season

PART I, Games played from October 27, 2010 to January 30, 2011 => 17-27
PART II, Games played from January 31 to February 23, 2011 => 9-3
PART III, Games played since February 24, 2011 => 1-7

Or, is there another equally simple but, possibly, even MORE plausibe explanation for this?

============================

When an otherwise solid NBA team – i.e. based on the relative quality of its player personnel - experiences a sudden and major decline in performance, it is frequently attributable to the absence of one [or more] key player[s] from their line-up, who is [are] primarily responsible for creating and minimizing a slew of individual mis-match advantages for their team when playing against average-to-above-average-to-very-good opponents.

As far as the Pacers are concerned, Mike Dunleavy is, in fact, this type of player and this corner would simply suggest that:

#1. Indiana has a much improved chance to play the type of game it wants to play under the direction of Frank Vogel … and win! … when it has a 6-9, 230 lb, relatively agile, multi-dimensional OG, like Mike Dunleavy, in its starting line-up, beside:

PG, Darren Collison [6-0, 160]
OG,
SF, Danny Granger [6-9, 228]
PF, Josh McRoberts [6-10, 240]
C, Roy Hibbert [7-2, 278]

[with a supporting cast of AJ Price, TJ Ford, Lance Stephenson, Brandon Rush, Dahntay Jones, Paul George, James Posey, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster and Solomon Jones] 

than it does when forced to play without him against the likes of Utah, Phoenix, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Houston and Philadelphia;

and,

#2. When Indiana tips-off against the Raptors later-on this evening, it should come as no surprise at all to see the Pacers get back in the W column, since some combination of Brandon Rush [6-6, 210], Dahntay Jones [6-6, 210], Lance Stephenson [6-5, 210] and Paul George [ 6-8, 210] should be more than capable of competing effectively, at the OG position, against Toronto’s troika of DeMar DeRozan [6-7, 220], Sonny Weems [6-6, 203] and Leandro Barbosa [6-3, 202].

Toronto Raptors 101
INDIANA PACERS 105
Complete Game Info – Mon Jan 11 2010

When you take a closer look at the way this specific game was played by these two teams, in terms of their respective rotations:

A.i. LINE-UPS
Raptors and Pacers each use a conventional 5-man unit.
Raptors use Hedo Turkoglu at SF.

A.ii. LINE-UPS
Raptors and Pacers each use a conventional 5-man unit.
Raptors use Sonny Weems at SF.

B. LINE-UPS
Pacers use an unconventional/”small” 5-man unit with Danny Granger at PF.
Raptors use a conventional 5-man unit with Hedo Turkoglu and then Antoine Wright at SF.

C. LINE-UPS
Pacers use an unconventional/”small” 5-man unit with Danny Granger at PF.
Raptors use an unconventional 5-man unit with Hedo Turkoglu at PF and Sonny Weems at SF.

what you should be able to see is that each squad had considerable success with specific types of 5-man units and struggled mightily with others.  

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

#1. When the Pacers first went “small”, at the 08:09 mark of the 2nd quarter, down by 22 points, what the Raptors needed to do in response was:

- Keep Amir Johnson/PF in the game, matched-up vs Danny Granger

- Replace Marco Belinelli/OG with Hedo Turkoglu/SF; shift Sonny Weems to the OG position; and, replace Rasho Nesterovic/C with Chris Bosh

If Toronto would have made these specific moves it would have created the following individual match-ups:

Pos, Raptor [Off|Def|Reb] vs Opp

PG, Calderon [+|-|0] vs Price
OG, Weems [0|+|+] vs Rush
SF, Turkoglu [0|-|0] vs Dunleavy
PF, Johnson [-|+|0] vs Granger
C, Bosh [0|+|0] vs Murphy

and put the Raptors in a good position to maintain their 20+ point lead heading toward half-time.

#2. When the Pacers went “small” to begin the 4th quarter, what the Raptors needed to do was:

- Replace Marco Belinelli/OG with Sonny Weems, at the 11:22 mark

- Keep Amir Johnson/PF on the floor, matched-up vs Danny Granger

If Toronto would have made these specific moves it would have created the following individual match-ups:

PG, Calderon [+|-|0] vs Price
OG, Weems [-|+|+] vs Rush
SF, Turkoglu [0|-|0] vs Dunleavy
PF, Johnson [-|+|0] vs Granger
C, Bargnani [0|0|-] vs Murphy

and put the Raptors in a good position to maintain their 8 point lead heading toward crunch time … i.e. the final 10 minutes … in the 4th quarter.

#3. According to the 5-man unit stats at 82games.com, the Raptors have yet to try the combination of:

Calderon/PG + Weems/OG + Turkolgu/SF + Bosh/PF + Bargnani/C

this season for any significant stretch of playing time.  

Although Sonny Weems has yet to convert a 3PT-shot in his NBA career, at 6-6, 203 he is an athletic defender/rebounder, at the OG position, who:

i. Shoots 45% on his 2FGAs
ii. Slashes well to the basket, in both half and full court situations
iii. Has the ability to draw fouls, and
iv. Plays with a high degree of energy. 

An effective compliment to the specific skill-sets of Jose Calderon [i.e. a good ball-handler and perimeter shooter], Hedo Turkoglu [i.e. a solid ball-handler and perimeter shooter], Andrea Bargnani [i.e. a good perimeter shooter] and Chris Bosh [i.e. a good mid-range/low-post scorer] … Sonny Weems is the player who the Raptors need to play at the OG position when the opposition elects to go “small” vs Toronto, like the Pacers did, during key stretches of Monday’s game.

Dunleavy in Pacers’ opener? Maybe
… Mike Dunleavy might be back sooner than expected, his coach said today.

“Our medical people are very pleased with his progression,” Pacers head coach Jim O’Brien said. “I’ve changed my view point to a pessimistic one from a standpoint of him being ready in the middle of the season to one that I’m hoping he’ll be ready to go for game one.”

———————————

If Indiana was to actualy have a 100% healthy Mike Dunleavy, Jr. back in it’s rotation from the start of the 2009-2010 regular season schedule … in addition to a 100% healthy Danny Granger … then, yours truly would definitely consider the Pacers as yet one more Tier 2A team in the belly of an ever-strengthening Eastern Conference.

Finally having rid themselves of the debilitating Jamaal Tinsley [PG] situation, while adding [i] a low-cost veteran PG [low cost free agent], [ii] a hard-nosed defensive-minded, rebounding, non-shooting role player on the Wing [low cost free agent], [iii] a high motor, physical front-court player [Mid 1st Round Draft Pick], and [iv] an under-rated shot-blocking, non-scoring role playing back-up Center [low cost free agent]:

STARTERS
1 TJ Ford [PG]
2 Dahntay Jones [OG]
3 SF/Danny Granger [SF]
4 Troy Murphy [PF]
5 Roy Hibbert [C]

KEY SUBS
6 Watson [PG]
7 Brandon Rush [OG/SF]
8 Mike Dunleavy, Jr. [OG/SF]
9 Tyler Hansbrough [PF]
10 Solomon Jones [C]

RESERVES
11 Travis Diener [PG]
12 Jeff Foster [PF/C]

EXTRAS
13 AJ Price [PG]
14 ?
15 ?

this would be the type of diversified line-up necessary to compete for a #6-8 playoff spot in the EC from beginning to end.