Archive for the ‘Wagering’ Category
On occasion, in this life …
“There comes a time when you have to plant your feet, stand firm, and make a point about who you are.” – Leon Riley [Pat Riley's father]
because the simple fact is …
and the real joy comes from doing what you believe is right, both, for you …
in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds, and the opinions of countless other so-called experts.
Khandor’s Sports Service, Super Bowl XLVI Selection
For this little corner of the ethernet, today just happens to be one of those occasions.
As of today, the odds to win this year’s NBA Championship look like this.
If there is one player who is currently on the open market that Pat Riley SHOULD try to add to his existing squad, in order to ensure that his team has the best opportunity possible to win this year’s NBA Championship, it is none other than …
The Heat have offered contracts to both Joel Przybilla and Kenyon Martin, their agents told ESPN.com. Przybilla is expected to make a choice between the Chicago Bulls and Heat, according to agent Bill Duffy. Martin is interested in several teams, with the Heat in the mix, according to agent Andy Miller.
The Sporting News reported Wednesday that Przybilla is planning to make a choice by the end of the week.
Heat president Pat Riley has been recruiting both players as the Heat look to add depth to their frontcourt. According to multiple league executives, the belief is that the 7-foot-1 Przybilla is healthy and believes he can contribute to a contender in a limited role off the bench.
Przybilla played in 36 games for the Portland Trail Blazers and Charlotte Bobcats last season, averaging 1.8 points and 4.0 rebounds.
Joel Przybilla [C, 7-1, 259].
It says here and now that … if Mr. Przybilla is indeed 100% healthy, once again, and in position to play regular minutes, as a highly effective role player, either, as a “starter” or a “key sub” coming off the bench, then … the Miami Heat will win the NBA Championship this season, and the mere possibility of still getting them at odds of 5-2 is, in fact, a huge value investment.
If there is going to be 1 home game on their regular season schedule this year that the Raptors will most definitely come away with a W it will be this evening’s contest against the Nets:
|3 x 4 = 12||0 x 5 = 0|
|3 x 3 = 9||1 x 3 = 3|
|0 x 2 = 0||0 x 2 = 0|
|12 + 9 + 0 = 21||0 + 3 + 0 = 3|
The published wagering line for tonight’s game [as of 1:00 PM this afternoon] is:
TORONTO RAPTORS -270
Even though this price certainly qualifies as a “Big Ticket”, with Deron Williams [PG], Kris Humphries [PF] and MarShon Brooks [OG] all absent from New Jersey’s line-up this evening, and Toronto playing the 1st of 7 games in a span of only 9 days, with a back-to-back on the road tomorrow night, in Philadelphia …
The Toronto Raptors might not find themselves in a better “road win”, or “close road loss,” situation for the rest of this season than what should exist for their contest this evening against the New York Knicks:
|Pos.||Toronto Raptors||ADV||NEW YORK KNICKS||Pos.|
|2 x 4 = 8||2 x 4 = 8|
|2 x 3 = 6||0 x 3 = 0|
|0 x 2 = 0||0 x 2 = 0|
|8 + 8 + 6 = 22||8 + 0 + 0 = 8|
i. Amare Stoudemire [PF/C] missed New York’s most recent game against Sacramento Kings with a sprained ankle;
ii. Baron Davis [PG] has not yet joined the Knicks’ rotation;
iii. The Knicks will be playing their first game at home after just returning from a mini West Coast road trip; and,
iii. The wagering line for this game, as of 1:00 PM ET, was New York Knicks -8.5/-102.
If Dwane Casey is, in fact, as good a coach as this corner thinks he is, then, this game should eventually play out as a “near perfect” scenario for the long term health of the Raptors franchise, i.e. with the visitors playing a highly competitive brand of physical basketball [Win], before losing by less than 8 points [Lose] and, simultaneously, improving their chances of securing a high end selection in the NBA’s 2012 Draft Lottery [Win].
The long term goal of any professional sports franchise should be to win its League Championship … and, the best way for the Raptors to acquire the type of marquee talent necessary to become a legitimate contender in the NBA, one day in the not-too-distant future, is by losing games like this and, thereby, finishing in 30th, 29th or 28th place in the final standings this season.
For the benefit of those with an interest in identifying profitable NBA Playoff games, in advance, with a high degree of accuracy …
This is what Khandor’s Sports Service – GOTD Selections have been to this point:
Day 1, Sat-Apr-16
Indiana Pacers +12 [Winner, 1-0]
Day 2, Sun-Apr-17
Denver Nuggets +6 [Winner, 2-0]
Good hunting to all!
PS. FWIW … Day 3 is today.
The NBA Playoffs are set to tip-off in approximately 40 minutes.
This year, there are a number of teams with legitimate aspirations to win the league championship, including:
Chicago Bulls [EC1]
Miami Heat [EC2]
Boston Celtics [EC3]
San Antonio Spurs [WC1]
LA Lakers [WC2]
#1. The overall ability level of their rotational players;
#2. The specific ability levels of their bonafide “star” players;
#3. The ability level of their coach [and his staff];
#4. The prior experience of their rotational players; and,
#5. The prior experience of their coach [and his staff].
Below this elite group, there is a larger 2nd tier, that is very strong, as well, but with individial teams that fall just short of the 1st tier, in one or more of the above criteria, including:
Dallas [i.e. deficient in #2]
Orlando [i.e. deficient in #2]
Oklahoma City [i.e. deficient in #3 and #4]
Denver [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4]
New York [i.e. deficient in #1 and #3]
Philadelphia [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4]
Atlanta [i.e. deficient in #2, #3 and #5]
Portland [i.e. deficient in #1, #2 and #4]
Below this 2nd group, there is a 3rd tier, which contains individual teams that are not quite where the others are … as of yet … in terms of “readiness” to advance beyond the 2nd Round of the Playoffs, based on the criteria above AND specific personnel absences, including:
New Orleans [i.e. missing a key player in David West]
Memphis [i.e. Playoffs newbies]
Indiana [Playoffs newbies]
Given how close the top 5 teams are to one another this year, and to what degree the eventual outcome can/will be determined by a single crucial injury, at an inopportune moment …
Kudos to Marc Spears [Yahoo! Sports, NBA Analyst] for going out on a limb, early on, with his prediction for this year’s championship-winning team.
Odds To Win The NBA Championship
Despite losing the front end of a back-to-back last night [in Chicago], Toronto is actually in relatively good shape today to play a solid game, at home, against the Orlando Magic.
* The published wagering line for this event is:
OPENING: Orlando Magic -9
CURRENT: Orlando Magic -10 [as of 5:30 PM today]
* Orlando might be without 2 regular rotation players, i.e. given the recent injuries to Gilbert Arenas and JJ Redick, and may not even have a 2nd PG available, at all, given the possible absence of Chris Duhon.
* If the Individual Match-ups end up looking like this:
|TORONTO RAPTORS||ORLANDO MAGIC|
|0 x 0 = 0||3 x 4 = +12|
|3 x 3 = +9||1 x 3 = +3|
|PG||Calderon [inj.]||N/A||Duhon [inj.]|
|SF/PF||Kleiza [inj.]||N/A||Arenas [inj.]|
|C||Bargnani [inj.]||N/A||Reddick [inj.]|
|0 x 0 = 0||1 x 2 = +2|
Orlando will have only a few ’positional advantages’ throughout their line-up.
* Despite a poor overall W-L Record [20-55/.267], Toronto has played much better at home [i.e. 14-23/.378] this season.
* Despite a good overall W-L Record [48-28/.632], Orlando has played much poorer on the road [i.e. 21-17/.553] this season.
* Toronto might have the benefit of playing this game without Andrea Bargnani [C] … which, despite having less offensive fire-power, overall, should also enable them to play better Team Defense, Team Offense, and Rebound the ball more effectively, as a collective unit.
* In general, teams that arrive in Toronto 1 day prior to playing a Sunday evening game have the opportunity to spend a ‘lively‘ – and sometimes rather late – Saturday night in a truly world-class city, with the knowledge that they will not have to wake up early the next day, for an early afternoon tilt and, in the process, lose much of the advantage traditionally associated with not having played a game themselves the night before.
* Although the Consensus of All Selectors [i.e. 58.9%] favours Orlando to cover the published wagering line for this game, the vast majority of Team Experts [i.e. 75.0%] actually think that Toronto is more likely to get the cover.
Published Wagering Line
Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5/-107
Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5/-106 [as of 1:00 PM]
* This is the first of 5 road games which the Raptors will be playing over the course of the next 7 days.
* This is the first game of a difficult back-to-back for the Raptors [i.e. Toronto is at Denver tomorrow].
* If the Raptors are going to play a particularly ”energetic” game on this extended west coast road trip it is most likely going to be today.
* Despite the many difficulties which Andrea Bargnani [C] has on the defensive end of the floor, he should be in an advantageous individual match-up this evening, at the offensive end of the floor, against any of the Bigs for Oklahoma City [i.e. Ibaka, Perkins, Collison, Mohammed and Aldrich], none of whom are particularly well-equipped to deal with him effectively, as a perimeter-shooting Center.
* From a physical standpoint:
- James Johnson [SF] is an effective individual match-up against Kevin Durant [SF], at the defensive end of the floor;
- Sonny Weems [OG-SF] is an effective individual match-up against James Harden [OG-SF], at the defensive end of the floor;
- Reggie Evans [PF] is an effective individual match-up against Serge Ibaka [PF], at the defensive end of the floor;
- Although Jose Calderon is over-matched against Russell Westbrook, if he can generate as many points scored from his own array of fg’s, ft’s and assists, then, he should be able to minimize the damage done by his counterpart for Oklahoma City.
* Although Jay Triano is not an elite level head coach in the NBA, neither is Scott Brooks.
* The majority of NBA observers actually expect the Raptors to get thumped by the Thunder this evening.
* As the published wagering line for this game continues to climb throughout the day, it should not come as a surprise, at all, to see the Thunder close as a -14.0 favourite.
* OKC has 2 days off before playing their next home game, and is 1-1 in this situation, so far, this season [i.e. Nov 11, Loss, ATS/-1.5 vs Bos; Dec 12, Win, ATS/-12.5 vs Cle/b2b].