khandor’s sports blog

When the team’s GM says stuff like this:

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“I just know that from our standpoint we’re looking at a list of 30 or 45 players that are in this draft class and there’s nobody at 28 or 29 which is where the Miami pick was at this moment, that is going to supercede his talent level or remotely come close to it.” – Bryan Colangelo on James Johnson

Read more: http://raptorsrepublic.com/#ixzz1FBIjpcyc

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Definition: Mendacity

… It is simply astounding that not a single member of the main-stream media confronts it, full force, to expose it as the complete “sham” which it happens to be.The RIGHT question[s] to ask isn’t whether James Johnson is a “better” player than what the Raptors could, possibly, find at the low end of the 1st Round in this summer’s NBA Draft but, rather:

Q1. If that low end 2011/1st Round Draft Pick was to be “packaged” properly with a collection of additional assets, as a “deal sweetener”, per se, “Could it have MORE future value than the player James Johnson?”

and,

Q2. Why on earth is a multi-million [billion?] dollar operation like MLSE concerned with the “cost savings” involved with comparing the monetary value of adding a 2nd-yr player like James Johnson, who will be in the final year of his initial rookie-scale contract next season vs the future monetary value of the low end 1st Round Draft [obtained from Miami] which the Raptors just sent to Chicago, that would come with a guaranteed 3-year salary commitment, in the first place?

PS. Instead of concerning itself with perpetually being under the Salary Cap and the LTT, a hugely profitable operation like MLSE should simply be trying to build a championship-winning calibre franchise. Period.

There are different schools of thought concerning how specific NBA teams perform in ”close games”, over the course of an 82-game regular season schedule, regarding the actual effects of such things as:

I. Superior skill level/ability;

II. Superior coaching;

III. Age/experience/maturity;

IV. Luck; and/or,

V. Some combination of the above.

Are close games really decided by luck?

Mythbusting: Experience and close games

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The outcome of last night’s Raptors-Hawks game:

Atlanta Hawks [43-24] 105
TORONTO RAPTORS [33-33] 106
Complete Game Info

is consistent with the perspective that views V., above, as the most appropriate interpretation of the available data …

Given that:

A. After struggling with the accuracy of his jump shot for the first 46 minutes of the contest, the best player on the home team made several key plays in the final 2 minutes to fuel an otherwise improbable come-from-behind victory against a solid opponent [i.e. +.650, Win%] that’s been playing fairly erratic basketball of late;

and,

B. The home team was also the beneficiary of every questionable officiating call during this same segment of the game.

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Heading into last night’s game:

Atlanta Hawks

Minuses
- Lost 2 of 4 last away games [i.e. G2 at New York and G1 at Miami] 
- Played without best player [i.e. Joe Johnson] in the line-up
- Played 2nd game of a back-to-back situation
- Travelled from away game at New Jersey to Toronto

Pluses
- 3 game Winning Streak, overall [i.e. G5 at New Jersey, G4 vs Detroit and G3 at Washington]

TORONTO RAPTORS

Minuses
- 1st game at home after 4-game west coast road trip
- Lost 9 of last 10 games, overall

Pluses
- Returning home from 4-game west coast road trip
- 3 point home favourite
- Antoine Wright/SF-OG out of the line-up

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End of game Play-By-Play

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Although there are any number of factors which can influence the eventual outcome of a close NBA game, the overall quality of the work done by the officiating crew is undoubtably one of them, as evidenced by:

i. #1-4, above;

and,

ii. The video highlights …

Full marks to Chris Bosh & Co. for having the intestinal fortitude required to battle through an overall poor performance and the ability to take advantage of the opportunity presented to them late in last night’s game.

Knicks book club pays off
On the way home from the Knicks’ 0-3 West Coast trip in late November, Al Harrington suggested that he and his teammates read the book “Winning Everyday” by Lou Holtz.

“Everybody looked at me like I was crazy,” Harrington said. “But since they’ve started reading it they’ve said it’s pretty good.”

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In a group activity, the amassed power of a Collective Single-Mindedness should never, ever be under-estimated.

FYI …

I am on the road for the next 2-3 weeks. It will be a down time here at kss. Keep well until that time, one and all.

Yesterday’s action finished with the following results:

W-L: 2-0
Units: +10.00

which is a very productive and significant step in the right direction.

Overall, after Day 25:

W-L: 24-25
Units: +7.93

Hopefully this trend continues today.

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Wed May 13 2009

Game 1 – NUGGETS vs Mavericks

This game could get ugly for Dallas. The Mavs simply do not have the horses to keep pace with Denver for a full 48 minutes.

Dallas +9.5/-102
DENVER -9.5/-106
Call: DENVER [3 units]

 George Karl’s radio interview

“There’s a lot of things that fell in to place this year but the most important thing I can say is the commitment to play defense has slowly grown and got more important on this team, to the point now that it’s the strength of the team… It’s the first thing that we think about when we start preparing for a team like Dallas.”  – George Karl

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The vast majority of unsophisticated NBA observers focus far too much of their attention on only one ‘subset’ of One phase of the game … i.e. Individual Offense … while disregarding the other aspects of that phase and excluding the other Two main phases, i.e. REBOUNDING & DEFENSE.

The teams which advance in the NBA Playoffs do not make THIS mistake.

There are a couple of basic rules to follow in the business of sports wagering which go like this:

Rule 1. Risk in life only that which you are actually prepared to lose.

Rule 2. Life is not about “fairness”.

Rule 3. There is no such thing as a “bad beat”.

Rule 4. Tomorrow is another day … with more games to be played.

Rule 5. Always … Enjoy the ride!

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Yesterday’s action finished with the following results:

W-L: 0-1
Units: -4.46

which is a step in the wrong direction.

Overall, after Day 6:

W-L: 6-8
Units: -5.21

Hopefully the good news will return today.

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Fri Apr 24 2009

Game 1 – 8/PISTONS vs 1/Cavaliers

In order to hang with the Cavs, the Pistons will need to relax their efforts to stop Lebron and focus on keeping Cleveland’s lesser lights in-check. That and giving additional PT to the solid depth players they have on their bench should allow them to stay in this contest for the duration … unless, of course, this morning’s story that Joe Dumars “has had a restraining order issued against Michael Curry” [as reported by the Fan590's Morning Show a few minutes ago], proves to be authentic, in which case all bets are off for this evening’s circus show in the Motor City.

Cleveland -4.5/-105
DETROIT +4.5/-103
Call: DETROIT [2 units]

Game 2 – 6/76ERS vs 3/Magic

Philadelphia matches-up very nicely with Orlando. As long as the line-maker continues to roll with the Magic, this remains a profitable scenario for the 76ers.

Orlando -3.5/-102
PHILADELPHIA +3.5/-106
Call: PHILADELPHIA [2 units]

Game 3 – 4/ROCKETS vs 5/Blazers

If the intensity of Game 1 at home was, in fact, a rude awakening of sorts for the Baby Blazers, what’s in store for them here, in enemy territory, with the Rockets forced to use their smaller more athletic players in place of their fallen elder statesman, will be on another level altogether. Similar to Game 1, this one might get ugly in a hurry.

Portland +5.5/+102
HOUSTON -5.5/-110
Call: HOUSTON [2 units]

Yesterday’s action finished with the following results:

W-L: 0-2
Units: -3.16

which is a long way from par.

Overall, after Day 3:

W-L: 3-6
Units: -6.53

The good news is that with each game that passes, more is learned about the current state of these 16 playoff teams and where exactly the better investment  opportunities can be found, as the Playoffs progress.

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Tue Apr 21 2009

Game 1 – 1/CAVALIERS vs 8/Pistons

Do not like the way the Pistons caved in during the latter half of the 4th quarter in Game 1. LBJ & Co. have their pedal to the metal right now and may open up even earlier this game vs what looks like a dispirited crew of from the Motor City. Can’t help but be leary, however, when asked to lay that many points against a tested outfit like the Pistons. Will sit back & watch, instead, with an eye focused on the upcoming Game 3.

Detroit +11/+104
CLEVELAND -11/-112
Call: Pass

Game 2 – 4/BLAZERS vs 5/Rockets

As much as Portland seemed like an attractive move on the weekend, there was much to like about the vim & vigar which Houston brought to the table on the road in Game 1. Aaron Brooks is going to be a tough cover for the Blazers all series long … unless Nate McMillan is brave enough to see the solid match-up possibility he has on his bench with the under-utilized Jerryd Bayless, who is thought to be a poorous defender overall but who is also quick enough, in this instance, to at least cause some worry for the diminutive floor general of the Rockets. As was mentioned in this space earlier this season … a major weakness for the Blazers heading into this post-season is the defensive deficiency of Steve Blake [PG]. A second viable which McMillan has at his disposal is to finally go with the Blazers best option at the PG-spot, i.e. Brandon Roy, right from the start, instead of waiting to “close” with him. Closing is not an option when you’re down by 30 in the 3rd Q. This would accomplish several things for Portland, not the least of which is get their best offensive player away from the “Deadly Duo” of Ron Artest and Shane Battier at the Wing positions for the Rockets. Who would Portland then go with on the Wings, in place of Roy? It would be terrific if they had a healthy Martel Webster ot insert right about now. In lieu of that, however, Rudy Fernandez would begin the game at the Off Guard position as the running mate to Nicolas Batum, with Travis Outlaw then sliding down to the SF position, where he is a much more physical presence for the Blazers … necessary to combat the size and strength of Ron Ron & Shane … and opening up a big man slot for Channing Frye [who can stretch Houston's D with his J] to get additional minutes as the 4th player in their front-court rotation, i.e. Przybilla & Oden at Center; Aldridge & Frye at Powr Forward. Moves like these are what separate the Top Notch coaches in the NBA from the also rans. For their part, the Rockets need to realize the opportunity which they now have in this series … against a rattled, inexperienced outfit like the Blazers, who were really shook in Game 1. Play with similar intensity and unselfishness again this evening … centered around the stellar work of Yao Ming, Aaron Brooks, Luis Scola [who just really knows HOW TO PLAY THIS GAME, like his Argentian brethren, Manu & Fabricio], Battier, and Artest – but also very ably supported by the likes of strong, physical role players like Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry and Von Wafer, at their respective positions - and the Rockets will be sitting in the catbird’s heading home to the Toyota Center.

Houston +6/-103
PORTLAND -6/-105
Call: Houston [2 units]

Game 3 – 1/Lakers vs 8/Jazz

The Lakers are going to win this game; take that to the bank. What is far less certain, however, is whether their relative lack of depth [in comparison with the Jazz's lengthy list of capable subs] and all out focus on the prize at the end of the rainbow will in fact allow them to pull away and THEN sustain their energy to get the cover. With 10 seconds left on the clock in the 4th quarter of Game 1, Utah was down by 13 points, intercepted a Lakers’ pass and had a wide open 3 from the TOTK to make the final margin 10 points, when the closing numbers were LA -11.5/-110. There’ll be far better games ahead on the schedule for the Lakers during this post-season. Trying to stay healthy and get to Utah with a 2-0 series lead might just be all the Lakeshow cares about this evening, and the cover be d*mned.

Utah +11.5/-105
LOS ANGELES -11.5/-105
Call: Pass

Yesterday’s action finished with the following results:

W-L: 1-2/.333
Units: -2.29

Hopefully it’s better news today.  

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Sun Apr 19 2009

Game 1 – 1/LAKERS vs 8/Jazz

Anything you can do, I can do better. I can do anything better than you.

The Cavaliers showed their might Saturday afternoon. Expect the Lakers to match them here, tit-for-tat, at the expense of the Jazz. If Utah is going to win a game this series it will be on their home court, not in LA. Depth is an issue for the Lakers, right now [after trading Radmanovic] so it won’t be easy covering this big number. As the afternoon proceeds, however, expect them to gradually pull away from the Jazz who are running on fumes. 

Utah +11.5/+102
LOS ANGELES -11.5/-110
Call: LOS ANGELES [1 unit]

Game 2 – 3/MAGIC vs 6/76ers

Rafer Alston is not Jameer Nelson. The Sixers are only of the best rebounding teams in the league and, with players like Miller [vs Alston], Iguodala [vs Turkoglu], Young [vs Lewis] and Dalembert [vs Howard] actually match-up with the Magic in a solid way. Until it’s known for sure how Orlando’s recently injured players health actually is, the 76ers are correct the side here getting 9.5 points.

Philadelphia +9.5/-108
ORLANDO -9.5/+100
Call: Philadelphia [1 units]

Game 3 – 4/HAWKS vs 5/Heat

The Hawks are much better than many casual NBA observers think with solid reinforcements like Murray, either Williams or Evans, Pachulia and Jones coming off their bench. However, if all hands are healthy for the Heat, there’s enough amunition in the cofers for Miami to make a serious game of it, each and every time out in this 4/5 match-up. If Udonis Haslem and Jamario Moon are both in the Heat’s rotation today, it will not be a surprise at all to see Miami join Chicago, Dallas and Houston, as road underdogs to win game 1.

Miami +5/-108
ATLANTA -5/+100
Call: Miami [1 unit]

Game 4 – 2/NUGGETS vs 7/Hornets

It’s been a rocky road this season for New Orleans, finding out the difference between being The Hunter and The Hunted. Denver, with Chauncey Billups at the helm, is one of the feel-good stories this season, in the NBA, and now have enough scoring and stable leadership to match the best efforts of every team in the league, this side of the Lakers when operating at full-throttle. What they don’t have, however, is a “little engine that could” … like Chris Paul. If CP3 is actually as good as advertised, the Nuggets are going to have their hands full with an under-sized team like the Hornets which is plenty deep this season … as long as they have Tyson Chandler available … that will not get fatigued in the rarified air of the Mile High City, or relent under the guidance of Byron Scott. New Orleans might not win outright today but expect them to at least keep it close until the game’s final possession.

Hornets +6/+101
NUGGETS -6/-109
Call: New Orleans [2 units]

After splitting W’s away from home this past weekend it’s easy to see how and why the Raptors and the Knicks currently occupy the 13th and 14th spots in the Eastern Conference standings. 

Game 1, Sat Apr 04 2009
FINAL SCORE: Raptors 102, KNICKS 95
Complete Game Info

Although the Raptors played poorly overall, shooting just 40.0 [FG%], they were still able to make enough 3PT shots [9-24/37.5%] to outscore the Knicks who were simply pathetic … i.e. 4-18/3PT% [22.2], -5 Turnovers [15/10], -3 Rebounds [44/47].

Quentin Richardson played 23:14, off the bench at the #2/OG position, and finished -14 [+/-], despite doing some good things individually [+14/kPER]. 

The 07:36 stretch which New York played with the PG/OG/SF combination of

Nate Robinson + Quentin Richardson + Jared Jeffries [-6, +/-] 
Nate Robinson + Quentin Richardson + Wilson Chandler [-7, +/-]

to end the 3rd quarter [03:56] and begin the 4th [08:20] was particularly poor, turning a 2 point lead into a hefty 11 point deficit, from which the Knicks never recovered.

What changed in the 2nd game of the weekend set to tip the balance in favour of the Knicks?

Game 2, Sun Apr 05 2009
FINAL SCORE: RAPTORS 103, Knicks 112
Complete Game Info

#1. Several Knicks played at a much higher level offensively, including David Lee, Wilson Chandler, Jared Jeffries, Chris Wilcox, Nate Robinson and Larry Hughes.

#2. Several Raptors had their individual game’s drop noticably, including Andrea Bargnani, Shawn Marion, Jose Calderon and Joey Graham.

#3. The Knicks outscored the Raptors by 27 points from the 3PT-line [i.e. New York 13-25/.52.0%; TORONTO 4-13/.30.8%], shot a higher FG% overall [New York/50.6%; TORONTO/44.3%] and improved their Turnover Differential [New York 12; TORONTO 12 = 0].

Did the Raptors play worse? Or, did the Knicks play better?

The Knicks played better, improving their TOTAL productivity by +28 [kPER]; while the Raptors improved theirs by only +4 [kPER].

The sad reality for both of these teams is that neither one is very good this season, in comparison with the other solid playoff squads in the Eastern Conference, i.e. Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphi and Detroit, and each will need to make important changes this off season … specifically, to some of the players in the #3-15 slots on their respective depth charts, who are simply not consistent enough to get the job done on a consistent basis … in order to separate itself from the other, as well as the rest of the mediocre teams in this half of the NBA, i.e. Chicago, Charlotte, Milwaukee, New Jersey and Washington, who are very similar in overall ability.