khandor’s sports blog

To this wonderful article written by Jim Cavan:

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Solving for W

But there’s a difference between changing what we know about the game, and what — and how — we think about it. Using advanced analytics can show what we know, but it’s in how they’re used — contextually, strategically, often in the heat of a split second — that can make the difference between winning and losing, between trophies and lotteries.

For as much as modern analytics gives us in the form of fascinating raw data, we’re still very much scratching the surface of how that data translates into wins. Which, after all, is what it’s all about, isn’t it? Perhaps one day we really will find ourselves fully immersed in a brave new sports world of medical, mathematical and scientific analytics, where the human body itself functions more as cog than cognition.

In the meantime, what we’re left with is the image of a splitting atom, without much of an idea of how we get that image to power our homes. Through research presented in forums like Sloan, we’re flush with information — lots of it — but information without a real vehicle, much less a GPS-guided road map to wins and championship. And that’s OK. Because it’s in that lag time — the gap between information and actionable results — that the art, the music, the poetry, indeed the chaos of sports is allowed to breath.

Instead of seeing them as the paint which coaches, front offices and franchises will use to compose the future of sports, we should instead see stats as the strengthening canvas — the increasingly sturdy base without which you wind up with nothing but a mess on the floor — where the game is the paint, and the players are, and remain always, the artists.

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this corner says a simple: “Amen, brother.”

It really is quite simple …

… if you understand what makes “winning teams” fundamentally different from “losing teams” …

… and, IT has nothing to do with an “individual player’s performance-based statistics”.

Unfortunately, every once in awhile, someone in the on-line hoops community will attempt to assert that the best basketball player on the planet earth today is someone other than Kobe Bean Bryant, based on some type of logical, or statistical-based, evidence.

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When “counting the rings” goes wrong

At this point in time, there is no clear-cut way to determine if Player X is better than Player Y. Some may rely on PER, others will rely on the eye test, and the vast majority will count the rings.

As with any argument, though, there is a golden rule that should be followed to a tee: if you’re going to use it in debate, at least be consistent.

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Main reason average basketball observers cannot properly evaluate who the best players actually are, at a given point in time, however, is because they are incapable of making an accurate assessment of the array of inter-related basketball skills [i.e. both, "hard" and "soft"] that actually need to be considered when making a judgment about the quality of a specific player in relation to the abilities of his/her peers.

What you see below is a brief sample of the myriad “basketball skills” which SHOULD be used to develop an accurate appraisal of a specific player’s actual ability, relative to his peers:

If you complete this simple evaluation form for any current player in the NBA … using whatever specific measuring tools you prefer for each individual category … according to the position he plays, and then compare his overall score to the same evaluation form you also complete for Mr. Bryant, you should be able to see for yourself that the LA Lakers’ No. 24 is still, actually, “The best basketball player on this planet.”

Baseball’s Hall-Of-Fame induction ceremony took place yesterday and, once again, former Blue Jays’ titan, Pat Gillick/GM, was a virtuoso performer.

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Better late than never, but Blyleven still bitter

On the press-conference stage, Pat Gillick leapt to Blyleven’s defence, but did so clumsily. His fellow Hall of Fame inductee talked about the stats that he thought were important in baseball.

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Congratulations Lawrence Patrick David [Pat] Gillick! You have always been a straight-arrow shooter.

If you’re looking for tangible reasons why Brandon Knight [PG] is going to be much better than many so-called “basketball stats gurus” realize, then, look no further:

When you actually watch this young man closely … with a well-trained eye for the type of details that matter a great deal, when it comes to determining success in the game of basketball … it is readily apparent that:

1. He has a very good chance to become a dominant PG in the NBA;

and,

2. The Raptors made a significant mistake in passing him by.

By-pass at your own peril …

[Courtesy of TrueHoop)

How LeBron James and Dwyane Wade run

Dr. Romanov spent some time examining the photographs you see here, and e-mailed thoughts about the running forms of James and Wade:

On two pictures, of two great basketball players from Miami Heat and NBA, caught at the same moment of moving forward with the ball, we can see two different ways of running. It is possible to say, that it could look coincidental, but, at the same time, it is very likely that these pictures represent the underlying inefficiencies of each respective athlete in the way they move.

It is obvious that LeBron James’ landing and keeping his body weight over the forefoot or ball of the foot presents a very dynamic body position moving forward with acceleration by falling forward from his support foot. From a physics point of view, his body is in a favorable position to harness the ever-present force of gravity most advantageously in order to move forward, or in any other direction.

This body position allows LeBron to use gratuitous forces like gravity, ground reaction force (GFR) and muscle-tendon elasticity to his advantage to engage his body weight into the action of moving. Consequently it allows him to reduce muscular tension and impact on all support tissues.

In contrast, Dwyane Wade is landing on the heel in front of the body with a dorsoflexed foot, which acts like a brake to his forward momentum with every stride.

Even at the first glance, these pictures are sending a quite simple and clear message: the first player is moving more efficiently and freer, and the second player inhibits his forward movement with every stride and game maneuver (moving sideways, changing directions). We can conclude that Dwyane Wade could be a far more efficient athlete if he could change his support more freely from the forefoot, a more favorable position for movement.

The other conclusion arriving from these pictures is that the second player (Dwyane Wade) has a higher chance to sustain an injury to his knee and ankle. Judging by his body position as he runs, we can infer that there is a lot of excess stress being placed on those parts of the body. His knee braces may be a result of his technique inefficiencies. This kind of movement could overload the foot and decrease ankle instability, not to talk of reducing the mobility level of the athlete.

Could it possibly be the case that a new “fundamental” requirement for winning home games, in the NBA … at least, against a high calibre opponent … is to have one of your team’s best players needlessly ejected, sometime in the first half …

Exhibit A

[watch at approximately the 50 sec mark]

because an official simply looses “his cool” and decides to banish someone for no good reason whatsoever?

Hmmm …

Exhibit B

Marc Gasol reacts with emotion, points at the jumbotron, and is then ejected

Given some of the nonsense that transpired, in two separate situations, on Tuesday night:

New York Knicks 110
ORLANDO MAGIC 116
Complete Game Summary

San Antonio Spurs 93
Memphis Grizzlies 109
Complete Game Summary

it sure looks THAT way.

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PS. It might be very interesting, indeed, to see if any of the “stats gurus” in attendance at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference have done any reseach on the topic of, “What percentage of NBA games are actually won by the home team after one of their ‘key starters’ has been ejected in the 1st half, on a terribly blown 2nd technical foul, assigned by a subsequently remorseful official.”

Finally … a stats guru speaks who is at least on the right track.

How stats apply to individual match-ups for elite level NBA coaches
WW: Tracy McGrady is a player who has never helped his team as much as people thought. Allen Iverson — for one or two years he was really good.

The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.

Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.

(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)

There’s a bunch of guys like that.

Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)

Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.

HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t. 

WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.

But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.

It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.

If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.

Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright.  He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible. 

Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.

Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.

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THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.

Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!

PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play?  Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.

PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.

PPPS. Btw … What Wayne Winston had to say in this piece about there being no distinction necessary between the use of players like Brandon Bass [#4/PF] and Dirk Nowitzki [#5/C], on the court together, regardless of their position, and the effect/thinking of Mike D’Antoni, just happens to be wrong.

and …

 Fortes fortuna adiuvat.
- Virgil (Aeneid, Roman epic poet, 70 BC – 19 BC)

Courtesy of the Whole Garden Will Bow

Have you stopped giggling yet?