khandor’s sports blog

As the summer continues to unfold, and NBA teams continue to fill in the blank spots on their rosters - i.e. for players and coaches alike - it can be enlightening to compare specific squads to one another, in an effort to assess accurately where they might be heading in the season ahead. 

Of initial interest is a comparison between the situations for Toronto and New Jersey, considering:

i. The inter-twined relationships which exist between several of the players and coaches on each team, including:

* Sam Mitchell is the former head coach of the Toronto Raptors.

* Jay Triano was an assistant coach on Sam Mitchell’s staff in Toronto.

* Avery Johnson [i.e. a former head coach for the Mavericks when they went to the NBA Finals/2006] was working as a NBA TV Analyst last summer, when Jay Triano was re-hired by the Raptors, as their permanent head coach.

* Kris Humphries [PF] played for the Raptors 2 seasons ago … and, was traded away in the failed experiment which was Hedo Turkoglu [SF].

* Andrea Bargnani [C, No. 1, overall, Draft Pick/2006, Tor] and Brook Lopez [C, No. 10, overall, Draft Pick/2008, Njn] have each been identified as a Cornerstone Player.

* DeMar DeRozan [G/F, No. 9, overall, Draft Pick/2009, Tor] was selected two places ahead of Terrence Williams [G/F, No. 11, overall, Draft Pick/2009, Njn], in the NBA Draft.

* Derrick Favors [PF, No. 3, overall, Draft Pick/2010, Njn] was selected ten places ahead of Ed Davis [PF, No. 13, overall, Draft Pick/2010, Tor], in the NBA Draft.

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ii. The recent ESPN Forecast for the 2010-2011 season;

iii. The fact that they have now been scheduled to play the first pair of regular season games beyond the borders of continental North America;

and,

iv. The specific approach each team has taken to the historic “Summer of 2010, Free Agency” which has lead to a ”radical roster revamp” for both squads, including:

- New Jersey’s decision to sign Travis Outlaw [SF/PF] vs Toronto’s decision to sign Linas Kleiza [SF/PF]

- New Jersey’s decision to trade Courtney Lee [OG], in exchange for Troy Murphy [PF] vs Toronto’s decision to trade a future 2nd Round Draft Pick, in exchange for David Andersen [C]

- New Jersey’s decision to trade Yi Jianlian [PF], in exchange for Quinton Ross [SF] vs Toronto’s decision to trade Hedo Turkoglu [SF], in exchange for Leandro Barbosa [OG/PG]

- New Jersey’s decision to sign Jordan Farmar [PG] and Anthony Morrow [OG], as unrestricted free agents vs Toronto’s decision to re-sign Amir Johnson [PF], as its own unrestricted free agent

- New Jersey’s decision to trade for Damion Jones [G/F, No. 24, overall, Draft Pick] vs Toronto’s decision to trade for Solomon Alabi [C, No. 50, overall, Draft Pick/2010] 

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As you can clearly see from examining the following chart:

According to these eyes, there is still a substantial discrepancy in the “talent” level for these two teams, when comparing their individual pieces … which is quite an accomplishment for New Jersey, since they won all of 12 games last year! … with the only authentic “advantages” for the Raptors being [i] Jose Calderon, when he’s used as a back-up PG, and [ii] Leandro Barbosa, when he’s used as a back-up Combo Guard.

That said …

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You’re invited to use the comment section to explain your answer, in detail, according to whichever specific “metric” you might prefer.

Neil Paine has now published an extremely interesting blog entry:

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Most Personnel Turnover Between Seasons

Here are the (non-expansion) clubs since 1965 who gave the smallest % of their minutes to players who had been on the roster the previous season:

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which indicates that, since 1965:

i. There have been 30 teams change at least 64.0% of their player roster from the previous season … based on Total Minutes Played;

ii. The “Average Win Total” for these teams is approximately 30 per season [i.e. .366];

and,

iii. Only 7 of these 30 teams [i.e. 23.3%] have finished with more than 41 wins [i.e. .500+] the following season.

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As you can tell from the comment [#3] submited by yours truly:

it would be very interesting to see what the results of Neil’s inquiry might yield, in terms of subsequent W-L records, if the parameters for examination were to be altered slightly, i.e. from a minimum change of 64.0% to >50.0%. 

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As far as the current edition of the Toronto Raptors is concerned …

These very simple stats might actually come into to play, if Bryan Colangelo [President/GM] is eventually able to trade Jose Calderon + 1 of either Reggie Evans, or Marcus Banks, this off season:

… which would, then, push next year’s team into the “>50.0% change” category.

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PLEASE NOTE: According to Neil’s research … of the 4 teams in the “>50.0% change” category from the 2009-2010 season - i.e. Toronto, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Detroit - only 1 finished the year with more than 41 wins [i.e. 1/4 = 25.0%]; while, the “Average Win Total” for these teams was a rather paltry 32 games [i.e. 128/328 = 39.0%].
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Last summer, the Toronto Raptors re-worked almost their entire roster, in an effort to qualify for the playoffs - and, to advance to, at least, the 2nd Round - by making the following personnel moves:

Although the team improved its win total from the previous season [i.e. 40 vs 33], it still failed to make the playoffs … due, primarily, to: [i] The 2nd half of the season injuries to their marquee player, Chris Bosh; and, [ii] The fact that the rest of their players - and coaches - were simply not good enough to win the required number of ’late season’ games, without their Captain in the line-up … after spending the middle portion of the schedule solidly in the playoff picture.

This summer, in addition to losing Chris Bosh, via unrestricted free agency, the Raptors have decided to re-vamp their roster, again, by making another series of sweeping personnel changes:

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Raptors acquire F Wright from Hornets

The 6-foot-8, 225-pound Wright averaged 8.1 points and 4.6 rebounds in 68 games with New Orleans last season.his move should help balance the roster and alleviate some of the redundancy we have with our guards,” Raptors president and general manager Bryan Colangelo said in a release Wednesday. “Julian is another young athletic player that will add depth at the small forward position.”

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As a result of these consecutive drastic ’summer make-overs’, the Raptors line-up now projects like this for next season:

… which means that the only remnants of the 2006-2007 team that went 47-35, to capture the Atlanta Division and earn a #3 seed in the EC playoffs, as well as the 2007-2008 version that finished in 6th place, are Jose Calderon [i.e. a high efficiency PG] and Andrea Bargnani [i.e. a low efficiency C]. 

There’s an old saying in life which goes something like this:

“Never make the error in judgment of mistaking activity for accomplishment.” - Anonymous

To these eyes, the Raptors are almost right back where they were, in 1997-1998, prior to the arrival of Vincent Lamar Carter.   

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PS. Don’t think for a minute that the Raptors have actually concluded their annual “summer make-over” … with the expiring contracts of Marcus Banks and Reggie Evans still in their pocket, plus a high efficiency PG - who they have already tried to trade on two occasions this off season - and, a 7-deep depth chart at the PG and OG positions which includes Calderon, Jack, Barbosa, Banks, DeRozan, Weems and Barbosa. Nosiree … instead of simply flying under the radar next season, in an effort to land a high quality player like Harrison Barnes, expect the Raptors to continue to try to upgrade their existing roster, in another futile push for a lower-tier spot in the playoffs.

So far this off season, no team in the NBA … except, of course, the Miami Heat … has improved the its organizational outlook for the 2010-2011 season, and beyond, more than the Philadelphia 76ers.

Personnel Moves made, thus far, this summer:

i. Hired Doug Collins, as their new head coach;

ii. Drafted Evan Turner, as the No. 2 [overall] Selection in the 2010 NBA Draft

iii. Traded a mostly discontented Samuel Dalembert/C for Andres Nocioni/SF and Spencer Hawes/C, two highly serviceable players … with good-fit skill-sets;

and, now,

iv. Hired savvy veteran NBA executive Rod Thorn, as their new President … which re-unites him with Ed Stefanski [as the team's GM], in a similar set-up to what existed in New Jersey during the early part of the decade, when the Nets made back-to-back trips to the NBA Finals.

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Sixers hire Thorn as President

Thorn will move into the organization over general manager Ed Stefanski, a close friend who worked with Thorn for six seasons with the New Jersey Nets. The embattled Stefanski will stay on under Thorn, keeping with a similar arrangement they had with the Nets.

After a decade as Nets president, Thorn left the organization last month after deciding against staying on to work for the new Russian ownership group. Nevertheless, he still expressed a desire to work again in the league and now takes over the 76ers.

Thorn took over the Nets when they were considered perhaps the NBA’s worst franchise, and elevated them to the NBA Finals in his second season (2002) on the job. His trade for Jason Kidd transformed the Nets into Eastern Conference contenders and pushed them to consecutive NBA Finals appearances. New Jersey reached the playoffs six straight seasons until previous ownership forced them to dump salaries.

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Constructing a successful franchise in pro sports is not an easy proposition, and requires top notch, top down, Leadership … from the the owner, right-on-through the President, GM, Head Coach, and the Cornerstone Players … which effects the day-to-day operation of the organization.

After finishing last the 2009-2010 campaign in a very disappointing fashion, Philadelphia is now poised to be one of the main ‘rebound’ teams next season.

Kudos to Ed Snider for taking the 76ers in this new - but already highly proven - direction!

When discussing the current plight of this team, all talk … eventually … comes back to the same specific topic - i.e. Andrea Bargnani [C, 7-0, 250], the No. 1 [overall] Selection from the 2006 NBA Draft - related to the arc of their annual W-L record, since the 2006-2007 season. 

The most harsh critics of the Raptors have suggested that the team’s fortunes have stagnated, since using the No. 1 [overall] Selection on a player who is not capable of excelling in at least 2 of the 3 distinct phases of the game - i.e. 1. Defense, 2. Rebounding, and 3. Offense; with performance in the first two being the most important for a Center in the NBA - and, ultimately, resulted in the departure of Chris Bosh … the team’s best player, by a wide margin … this summer.  

OTOH …

Those who extol the virtues of Raptors’ President/GM, Bryan Colangelo, point to the fact that there have been very few, if any, truly stalwart players come from the 2006 NBA Draft and that it was simply ‘poor luck’ for Toronto to have a player like Bargnani - who is an offensively talented Big Man - as the consensus No. 1 [overall] Selection that year.

Putting aside for the moment which of these two perspective is actually more accurate …

The upcoming season now presents the Raptors with an extremely situation, since a panel of so-called “NBA experts” has recently forecast that Toronto will … in all likelihood … should be expected to finish in last place in the Eastern Conference.

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Q1. What would a finish of this type actually mean for the Raptors franchise?

A1. It would mean … a legitimate shot at obtaining the No. 1 [overall] Draft Pick and the opportunity to select the type of authentic multi-dimensional cornerstone player every franchise needs to eventually propel itself into the upper echelon of the NBA.

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If/when you are able to put a dynamic wing player like …

with:

what you will end up with is a Core Group of players with enough first-class NBA talent to eventually become a legitimate contender for a Top 4 spot in the EC playoffs each year for the next decade …

provided that you are also willing to:

1. Wait until next summer to use the Traded Player Exception [TPE] gained from this summer’s trade with the Miami Heat [in exchange for Chris Bosh];

2. Are prepared to exceed the Salary Cap, down-the-road, to re-sign your own unrestricted free agents;

3. Are prepared to higher a head coach who is considered to be amongst the very best in the NBA and an authentic Transformational Leader;

and,

4. Actually prioritize The Winning of a League Championship for your pro sports organization.

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PS. In addition … the Raptors should also be prepared to trade Andrea Bargnani … let’s say, to the Minnesota Timberwolves, in exchange for their 2011, 1st Round Draft Pick … at any time a deal becomes available, to ensure that they go into next summer with 2 high Lottery Selections in their pocket.

PPS. The NBA has officially announced the individual team schedules for next season. As is, it looks as though breaking the 30-win barrier might be a real challenge for the Raptors, in an overall improved Eastern Conference.

Here’s something which is sure to set off palpitations at a plethora of sites with an interest in the Detroit Pistons … including, perhaps, here, here and here:

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Sources: Pistons mulling Tracy McGrady

DraftExpress.com’s Jonathan Givony reported earlier Saturday that the Pistons have already committed to sign McGrady to a one-year deal at the league’s $1.35 million veteran minimum, but one source close to the situation told ESPN.com that Pistons officials were “taking the weekend” to discuss the move.

Another source said Saturday night that no deal has been signed but that the parties are “in discussions.”

Nearly two weeks after a high-profile audition with the Bulls at their practice facility, McGrady appeared to have lost all hope of landing with the team he badly wanted to join when Chicago struck an agreement Friday with veteran swingman Keith Bogans.

But the Pistons have unexpectedly emerged as a suitor for McGrady after a quiet summer for Detroit that has been attributed in some league circles to owner Karen Davidson’s reluctance to spend given her well-chronicled desire to sell the team.

Bringing in McGrady at such a low cost would thus represent a low-risk, high-reward gamble for the Pistons. The 31-year-old is trying to resurrect his career after playing in just 30 games last season with Houston Rockets and New York Knicks thanks to a slow recovery from microfracture knee surgery.

The Pistons would appear to have little need at shooting guard or small forward — with Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Ben Gordon, Rodney Stuckey and the recently re-signed Will Bynum on the roster — but Detroit personnel chief Joe Dumars has never shied away from reclamation projects and knows his team suffered from a lack of scoring punch last season.

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The only question is …

Will those palpitations reflect a genuine uptick in the level excitement for the team’s buoyed prospects next season, or be the precursor to a lethal heart attack.

Oh, my.

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Update:

Source: McGrady joining Pistons

What’s does it really take to win big, in the NBA?

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Reinsdorf: ‘It took Scottie to put us over the top’

For many Bulls fans, it’s impossible to think about Michael Jordan without also thinking of Scottie Pippen. Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf shares that sentiment and he takes the thought one step further.

“Six championships that wouldn’t have been won without Scottie,” Reinsdorf said when asked what comes to mind when he recalls Pippen’s career. “Michael couldn’t have done it by himself. The rest of the players and Michael would not have been enough. It took Scottie to put us over the top those six times.”

It’s often been said that Pippen never won a title without Jordan, but Jordan never won it all without Pippen, either. At the end of the day, the two players were the perfect complement to each other. That’s why when Pippen enters basketball’s Hall of Fame on Aug. 13, it’s only fitting that he’ll join Jordan among the game’s greats in Springfield, Mass. just one year after his enshrinement.

“A lot of people liked to talk about Scottie as being Batman’s Robin or the Lone Ranger’s Tonto,” said Reinsdorf during a recent interview at the Berto Center. “I never thought that was the case and I liked to think of them as 1 and 1A. They were very, very close.”

The paring of the duo which brought Chicago six world championships in eight years was born on June 22, 1987 in New York City, the night of the 1987 NBA Draft. The Bulls owed two first round selections, eighth and tenth overall.

Then General Manager Jerry Krause had set his sights on Pippen, who had not long before been an unknown prospect out of Central Arkansas, a NAIA school at the time. Given that the Bulls were one of the very few teams who had ventured down to Conaway, Ark. to watch Pippen play collegiately, Reinsdorf recalled being confident they would be able to get him with the eighth pick. But the rest of the basketball world was about to learn of Pippen’s talents and abilities.

“We were sure we were going to be able to get Scottie where we were in the draft,” said Reinsdorf. “Then Scottie went to the pre-draft camps, lit it up and got everybody’s attention. We went into panic mode because we realized he wouldn’t be there when we were going to draft. We somehow had to move up and we were able to pull it off. But it was touch and go for awhile.”

Is it fair to say that only in the ‘good ole USA’ would Anthony Tolliver feel the need to explain what “Part Deux” actually means.

Hilarity, thy name frequently is ‘youtube’ … or, perhaps, David - no relation! - KAHHHHN, as the T-wolves continue to corner the market on PGs and PFs.

According to an old saying, “There are many [different] ways to skin a cat.”

However truthful this may be … doubtless … each distinct method actually starts with thinking of that cat in the proper way, in the first place, i.e. “skin-less”.

Four plus years into the tenure of current President/GM, Bryan Colangelo, and there is still a significant segment of the team’s fanbase which is thinking about the continued development of the franchise in a way which is not going to result in major on-court success.

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The key to Raptor’s success still lies overseas

How can we ever win?

Star US players leaving in a hurry. Big name free agents looking elsewhere. It’s a never-ending cycle of American players disliking something different. Like different is a bad thing.

Four years ago, when Bryan Colangelo came to town, he went European. Today as we collectively lament over the loss of Chris Bosh, I understand why.

Going European may in fact be this team’s only chance to win.

Take the Blue Jays. Throughout the late 80s they cornered the Dominican and Puerto Rican markets. Built a roster full of international talent and then filled holes with key American players.

On the streets of the Dominican you wouldn’t see a Yankees hat or a Boston Red Sox hat. You’d see a Blue Jays hat. Or Tony Fernandez uniform.

Maybe the same can be done for the Raptors.

If the Raptors can continue to build relationships internationally it could reap rewards. Scout heavily overseas. Hold basketball camps in Europe. Promote Bargnani in Italy. Bring in a coach like Ettore Messina.

Bring in non-American players who are more akin to different cultures. Players who don’t care what anthem is played before every game. Who don’t scoff at seeing kilometers written on speed signs. Who are more cultured than your average American athlete.

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This is the specific comment which was left by yours truly, just a few minutes ago, at this otherwise first-rate Raptors blog:

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When I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put childish ways behind me.
1 Corinthians 13:11