khandor’s sports blog

As the summer continues to unfold, and NBA teams continue to fill in the blank spots on their rosters - i.e. for players and coaches alike - it can be enlightening to compare specific squads to one another, in an effort to assess accurately where they might be heading in the season ahead. 

Of initial interest is a comparison between the situations for Toronto and New Jersey, considering:

i. The inter-twined relationships which exist between several of the players and coaches on each team, including:

* Sam Mitchell is the former head coach of the Toronto Raptors.

* Jay Triano was an assistant coach on Sam Mitchell’s staff in Toronto.

* Avery Johnson [i.e. a former head coach for the Mavericks when they went to the NBA Finals/2006] was working as a NBA TV Analyst last summer, when Jay Triano was re-hired by the Raptors, as their permanent head coach.

* Kris Humphries [PF] played for the Raptors 2 seasons ago … and, was traded away in the failed experiment which was Hedo Turkoglu [SF].

* Andrea Bargnani [C, No. 1, overall, Draft Pick/2006, Tor] and Brook Lopez [C, No. 10, overall, Draft Pick/2008, Njn] have each been identified as a Cornerstone Player.

* DeMar DeRozan [G/F, No. 9, overall, Draft Pick/2009, Tor] was selected two places ahead of Terrence Williams [G/F, No. 11, overall, Draft Pick/2009, Njn], in the NBA Draft.

* Derrick Favors [PF, No. 3, overall, Draft Pick/2010, Njn] was selected ten places ahead of Ed Davis [PF, No. 13, overall, Draft Pick/2010, Tor], in the NBA Draft.

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ii. The recent ESPN Forecast for the 2010-2011 season;

iii. The fact that they have now been scheduled to play the first pair of regular season games beyond the borders of continental North America;

and,

iv. The specific approach each team has taken to the historic “Summer of 2010, Free Agency” which has lead to a ”radical roster revamp” for both squads, including:

- New Jersey’s decision to sign Travis Outlaw [SF/PF] vs Toronto’s decision to sign Linas Kleiza [SF/PF]

- New Jersey’s decision to trade Courtney Lee [OG], in exchange for Troy Murphy [PF] vs Toronto’s decision to trade a future 2nd Round Draft Pick, in exchange for David Andersen [C]

- New Jersey’s decision to trade Yi Jianlian [PF], in exchange for Quinton Ross [SF] vs Toronto’s decision to trade Hedo Turkoglu [SF], in exchange for Leandro Barbosa [OG/PG]

- New Jersey’s decision to sign Jordan Farmar [PG] and Anthony Morrow [OG], as unrestricted free agents vs Toronto’s decision to re-sign Amir Johnson [PF], as its own unrestricted free agent

- New Jersey’s decision to trade for Damion Jones [G/F, No. 24, overall, Draft Pick] vs Toronto’s decision to trade for Solomon Alabi [C, No. 50, overall, Draft Pick/2010] 

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As you can clearly see from examining the following chart:

According to these eyes, there is still a substantial discrepancy in the “talent” level for these two teams, when comparing their individual pieces … which is quite an accomplishment for New Jersey, since they won all of 12 games last year! … with the only authentic “advantages” for the Raptors being [i] Jose Calderon, when he’s used as a back-up PG, and [ii] Leandro Barbosa, when he’s used as a back-up Combo Guard.

That said …

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You’re invited to use the comment section to explain your answer, in detail, according to whichever specific “metric” you might prefer.

Neil Paine has now published an extremely interesting blog entry:

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Most Personnel Turnover Between Seasons

Here are the (non-expansion) clubs since 1965 who gave the smallest % of their minutes to players who had been on the roster the previous season:

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which indicates that, since 1965:

i. There have been 30 teams change at least 64.0% of their player roster from the previous season … based on Total Minutes Played;

ii. The “Average Win Total” for these teams is approximately 30 per season [i.e. .366];

and,

iii. Only 7 of these 30 teams [i.e. 23.3%] have finished with more than 41 wins [i.e. .500+] the following season.

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As you can tell from the comment [#3] submited by yours truly:

it would be very interesting to see what the results of Neil’s inquiry might yield, in terms of subsequent W-L records, if the parameters for examination were to be altered slightly, i.e. from a minimum change of 64.0% to >50.0%. 

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As far as the current edition of the Toronto Raptors is concerned …

These very simple stats might actually come into to play, if Bryan Colangelo [President/GM] is eventually able to trade Jose Calderon + 1 of either Reggie Evans, or Marcus Banks, this off season:

… which would, then, push next year’s team into the “>50.0% change” category.

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PLEASE NOTE: According to Neil’s research … of the 4 teams in the “>50.0% change” category from the 2009-2010 season - i.e. Toronto, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Detroit - only 1 finished the year with more than 41 wins [i.e. 1/4 = 25.0%]; while, the “Average Win Total” for these teams was a rather paltry 32 games [i.e. 128/328 = 39.0%].
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When discussing the current plight of this team, all talk … eventually … comes back to the same specific topic - i.e. Andrea Bargnani [C, 7-0, 250], the No. 1 [overall] Selection from the 2006 NBA Draft - related to the arc of their annual W-L record, since the 2006-2007 season. 

The most harsh critics of the Raptors have suggested that the team’s fortunes have stagnated, since using the No. 1 [overall] Selection on a player who is not capable of excelling in at least 2 of the 3 distinct phases of the game - i.e. 1. Defense, 2. Rebounding, and 3. Offense; with performance in the first two being the most important for a Center in the NBA - and, ultimately, resulted in the departure of Chris Bosh … the team’s best player, by a wide margin … this summer.  

OTOH …

Those who extol the virtues of Raptors’ President/GM, Bryan Colangelo, point to the fact that there have been very few, if any, truly stalwart players come from the 2006 NBA Draft and that it was simply ‘poor luck’ for Toronto to have a player like Bargnani - who is an offensively talented Big Man - as the consensus No. 1 [overall] Selection that year.

Putting aside for the moment which of these two perspective is actually more accurate …

The upcoming season now presents the Raptors with an extremely situation, since a panel of so-called “NBA experts” has recently forecast that Toronto will … in all likelihood … should be expected to finish in last place in the Eastern Conference.

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Q1. What would a finish of this type actually mean for the Raptors franchise?

A1. It would mean … a legitimate shot at obtaining the No. 1 [overall] Draft Pick and the opportunity to select the type of authentic multi-dimensional cornerstone player every franchise needs to eventually propel itself into the upper echelon of the NBA.

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If/when you are able to put a dynamic wing player like …

with:

what you will end up with is a Core Group of players with enough first-class NBA talent to eventually become a legitimate contender for a Top 4 spot in the EC playoffs each year for the next decade …

provided that you are also willing to:

1. Wait until next summer to use the Traded Player Exception [TPE] gained from this summer’s trade with the Miami Heat [in exchange for Chris Bosh];

2. Are prepared to exceed the Salary Cap, down-the-road, to re-sign your own unrestricted free agents;

3. Are prepared to higher a head coach who is considered to be amongst the very best in the NBA and an authentic Transformational Leader;

and,

4. Actually prioritize The Winning of a League Championship for your pro sports organization.

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PS. In addition … the Raptors should also be prepared to trade Andrea Bargnani … let’s say, to the Minnesota Timberwolves, in exchange for their 2011, 1st Round Draft Pick … at any time a deal becomes available, to ensure that they go into next summer with 2 high Lottery Selections in their pocket.

PPS. The NBA has officially announced the individual team schedules for next season. As is, it looks as though breaking the 30-win barrier might be a real challenge for the Raptors, in an overall improved Eastern Conference.

What’s does it really take to win big, in the NBA?

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Reinsdorf: ‘It took Scottie to put us over the top’

For many Bulls fans, it’s impossible to think about Michael Jordan without also thinking of Scottie Pippen. Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf shares that sentiment and he takes the thought one step further.

“Six championships that wouldn’t have been won without Scottie,” Reinsdorf said when asked what comes to mind when he recalls Pippen’s career. “Michael couldn’t have done it by himself. The rest of the players and Michael would not have been enough. It took Scottie to put us over the top those six times.”

It’s often been said that Pippen never won a title without Jordan, but Jordan never won it all without Pippen, either. At the end of the day, the two players were the perfect complement to each other. That’s why when Pippen enters basketball’s Hall of Fame on Aug. 13, it’s only fitting that he’ll join Jordan among the game’s greats in Springfield, Mass. just one year after his enshrinement.

“A lot of people liked to talk about Scottie as being Batman’s Robin or the Lone Ranger’s Tonto,” said Reinsdorf during a recent interview at the Berto Center. “I never thought that was the case and I liked to think of them as 1 and 1A. They were very, very close.”

The paring of the duo which brought Chicago six world championships in eight years was born on June 22, 1987 in New York City, the night of the 1987 NBA Draft. The Bulls owed two first round selections, eighth and tenth overall.

Then General Manager Jerry Krause had set his sights on Pippen, who had not long before been an unknown prospect out of Central Arkansas, a NAIA school at the time. Given that the Bulls were one of the very few teams who had ventured down to Conaway, Ark. to watch Pippen play collegiately, Reinsdorf recalled being confident they would be able to get him with the eighth pick. But the rest of the basketball world was about to learn of Pippen’s talents and abilities.

“We were sure we were going to be able to get Scottie where we were in the draft,” said Reinsdorf. “Then Scottie went to the pre-draft camps, lit it up and got everybody’s attention. We went into panic mode because we realized he wouldn’t be there when we were going to draft. We somehow had to move up and we were able to pull it off. But it was touch and go for awhile.”

With the recent departure of Chris Bosh, the Toronto Raptors will now be led by Andrea Bargnani [C, 7-0, 250], the former No. 1 [overall] Selection from the 2006 NBA Draft.

Although different voices on-line have discussed Bargnani’s ability, as a No. 1 Option [i.e. offensively, defensively and in rebounding] for the team, ad nauseum … and, to a large extent, still see him as a gifted scoring, uniquely talented Big Man, in the mold of a young Dirk Nowitzki:

Exhibit A, B, C and D 

the view from this corner, remains essentially unchanged:

1. As Bargnani’s Points Scored [Pts] and Minutes Played [MP] have steadily increased over the last 4 years, this is what the Raptors’ W-L records have been:

2006-2007, 1629/MP, 751/Pts, 47/W
2007-2008, 1861/MP, 792/Pts, 41/W
2008-2009, 2453/MP, 1202/Pts, 33/W
2009-2010, 2799/MP, 1376/Pts, 40/W
2010-2011,?/MP, ?/Pts, ?/W

Toronto Raptors Franchise Index

Conversely, this is what those same stats look like for the first 5 years of Nowitzki’s career in Dallas:

1998-1999, 958/MP, 385/Pts, 19/W
1999-2000, 2938/MP, 1435/Pts, 40/W
2001-2002, 3125/MP, 1784/Pts, 53/W
2002-2003, 2891/MP, 1779/Pts, 57/W
2003-2004, 3117/MP, 2011/Pts, 60/W

Dallas Mavericks Franchise Index

2. If Bargnani averages 20 pts next season … What does it really matter, in the grand scheme of things?

3. During his 5th season in the NBA, Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavericks won 60 games, finished 1st in the Mid-West Division, and Lost in the Western Conference Finals … with the following roster.

Those who think the 2010-2011 version of the Raptors might actually approach 60 wins are hopelessly delusional.

3. The name Bargnani name does not warrant inclusion in any basketball-related article which also deals with the abilities of Dirk Nowitzki.

4. Bargnani is only a polarizing player for those fans who don’t truly value being able to compete for a league championship.

5. To this point in his NBA career, Andrea Bargnani has been an overt symptom of what has actually ailed the Raptors franchise - i.e. the first in a series of baffling personnel decisions which have not focused on creating a well-balanced team, overall, with a raft of multi-dimensional players who are capable of poducing first-class Team Defense [e.g. Points Allowed], Team Rebounding [e.g. Reb Differential] and Team Offense [e.g. Points Scored Differential] - rather than a constructive part of the solution.

6. At this point of the off season, all indications are that the Raptors … led on-court by Andrea Bargnani … will probably find themselves right back in the NBA’s Draft Lottery next summer … which might not be a bad thing, at all,

if the long term objective for this franchise is to be able to compete for a League Championship sometime in the not-too-distant future.

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“From the ashes of defeat can the makings of victory arise … if it’s handled properly.” - khandor

There has been considerable discussion the last several days, in different places on-line, about what has really hurt the Raptors franchise over the course of the last 4.5 seasons.

Exhibit A - NBA: Free-Agency Breakdown

Exhibit B - Turkoglu is still hurting the Raptors

If you look at yesterday’s blog entry, you will see the list of Major Personnel Moves which the Raptors have made during this specific time period.

These are the team’s records of achievement: 

Since 2006, Winter
2005-2006, 27-55, failed to make the playoffs
2006-2007, 47-35, made the playoffs/#3 Seed, Lost 1st Rd
2007-2008, 41-41, made the playoffs/#6 Seed, Lost 1st Rd
2008-2009, 33-49, failed to make the playoffs
2009-2010, 40-42, failed to make the playoffs
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Projecting Forward
2010-2011, sub .500?, fail to make the playoffs?
2011-2012, sub .500?, fail to make the playoffs?
etc.

When you look at these items closely, what you should begin to see is the illogical reasoning involved with asserting that top flight NBA players have been disinterested in playing for the Raptors … if/when Toronto has legitimately focused on putting together a championship-winning calibre team, which is not something that has actually been done since Steve Stavro [i.e. one-time principal owner] sold his controlling interest in Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment Ltd.

While a specific team’s fanbase might not fully understand what ‘the game’ is really all about - at least, at the highest levels of competition - elite level NBA players do not fit into this same category.

The fact is … elite level NBA players understand very well that:

* Bottom-line profitability is not what operating a successful franchise in this league is all about;

* Simply fielding a “competitive” [i.e. "winning"] team most seasons is not what operating a successful franchise in this league is all about;

* Trying one’s very best to gradually build a legitimate contending organization which is actually capable of competing for and eventually winning multiple NBA championships is precisely what operating a successful franchise in this league is all about;

and,

* Repeatedly changing the same basic furniture in one’s original ’starter home’ does not equate properly with making an authentic attempt at …

When a team in the NBA makes a series of highly questionable basketball-related personnel decisions … which, on the whole, fail to prioritize the development of a championship-winning organization … over a lengthy period of time, then, the best basketball players in the world, and their respective agents, take note … even if the fans of this specific team do not, because they are focused on the wrong things, e.g. if the best player in the history of their franchise may have “checked out, mentally,” in the 2nd half of last season, since this is what has been identified by [A] the team’s President/GM and [B] certain other no-expert basketball observers, as the chief reason for the current state of the franchise.

If you’ve taken the time to read a good portion of what’s been published on this blog to-date, then, you are already familiar with a few simple “facts” about the game of basketball:

[for example]

- it is comprised of 3 distinct main phases, i.e. Defense, Rebounding and Offense

- the 1 of these 3 phases which is the least well-understood, by “fans” and other so-called “expert observers” is Rebounding … followed by Defense … primarily, due to its “central” role and the way it influences the character of an elite level team

- basketball is, fundamentally, a “team” game … in which major success and failure [i.e. winning and losing the championship] are determined, in large part, by the highly specific strengths and weaknesses of the “individual” players and their ability to work “in concert” against a particular opponent

- while statistics, in general, are a terrific tool to help one understand how the game actually works, in isolation, they are not a wholly accurate reflection of reality and, at all times, need to be evaluated critically in the appropriate context

- an examination of highly specific anecdotal evidence is a gateway to developing an accurate understanding of the way in which a championship-winning team operates that is separate and distinct from its competition 

- putting an elite level team together properly is akin to “composing a virtuoso work of art” … moreso, than simplistically “painting by the numbers”

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To wit:

[this is the specific comment which was just submitted by yours truly at the Wages of Wins Journal]

Another Look at Team USA in 2010

Hmmm …

If someone could take the time to explain the reason the previous comment which I left in this thread was removed, it would be appreciated.

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In the interim, let’s try again.

It is a mistake in basketball judgment to think that keeping the 12 players with the highest WP48 numbers is necessarily the best way to construct a championship-winning basketball “team”.

Just because Gerald Wallace’s WP48 number … which [in fact] “fails to reflect a picture of reality” [according to a respected commentor [sic] on this site like Tom Mandel] … is substantially higher than Rudy Gay’s does not mean that simply “replacing Gay with Wallace” is the better way to go, in this case, i.e. with this specific group of players, their expected opposition, and the relatively large group of [at least, somewhat redundant] PG’s still on the active roster [i.e. Curry, Billups, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook], when compared with the sheer number of wing players [i.e. combo OG/SF/PF] with good size, strength, relative quickness - at their respective positions - and the ability to: i. defend, ii. rebound, iii. shoot the ball efficiently from distance, and iv. be high volume scorers, e.g. like Iguodala, Gay and Durant].

When you dissect how a championship-winning team is actually put together, what you will find is that rarely - if ever - is it simply a conglomeration of the 12 players with the highest available WP48 numbers [e.g. Was Charles Barkley a member of the 1984 team? or, Was Isiah Thomas a member of the original Dream Team?] And, the exact reasons for this are rarely - if ever - rooted in the way these specific players performed in lead-up public scrimmage situations.

Unfortunately, numeric-based analysis of basketball which reads like this is what can create a poor image overall for “stats” gurus, in the eyes of elite level coaches the world over.

[Hopefully this comment meets with your approval.]

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Enjoy!

Going forward from this point …

Which player[s] should become the new face[s] of the Raptors franchise?

If the primary long term objective is to win as many NBA championships as possible then the correct answer is quite simple.

PART I

Basketball is a game with 3 distinct phases.

i. Defense - i.e. When your opponent has possession of the ball.

ii. Rebounding - i.e. When neither team has possession of the ball.

iii. Offense - i.e. When your team has possession of the ball.

In the grand history of the NBA, the best teams in the league have consistently been built with multi-dimensional players, as the key foundation pieces.

PART II

Which player[s] on the Raptors’ current roster:

is someone who displays a high degree of proficiency in at least 2 of the 3 main phases of the game, without also being abysmal in the 3rd component?

Answer this exact question properly … and, it will tell you who, if anyone, on the Raptors SHOULD become the new face[s] of the franchise.

[NOTE: 1. R - Rookie. 2. The above classifications are based on accumulated Basketball Acumen. For the benefit of those who need to rely on game stats to make an accurate assesment of these things, feel free to peruse the available information at Hoopdata which pertains to these players. ]

Unfortunately, you might not end up liking what you will find.

Approximately 13 months ago, the following question was asked in this space, in a poll:

Where will Andrea Bargnani rank in the Eastern Conference next season, as a Center? … You Make The Call

pertaining to the 2009-2010 season.

As the Raptors complete their seemingly annual summer make-over, under the watch of Bryan Colangelo/GM, in preparation for the 2010-2011 campaign, it is interesting to see how the landscape is shaping up in the Eastern Conference, when evaluating the individual players who might be expected to start at the Center position for their respective teams:

PART 1 - Based On Basketball Acumen

PART 2 - Painting By the Numbers [from hoopdata for the 2009-2010]

From Toronto’s perspective …

The more some things change, the more other things simply stay the same.

As presently constituted …

* There is no Low-Post scoring Big Man on the roster.

* There is no Low-Post scoring Forward or Guard on the roster.

* Without a Low-Post scoring Big Man on the roster, there will be far less room for perimeter-based shooters to find uncontested shots, in half-court offensive situations.

* To a large extent, 4th quarter scoring in the NBA is driven by the main offensive players on a team who are capable of commanding a double-team from the defense. The Raptors have no such player[s] on their roster.

* To a large extent, consistent 4th quarter scoring in the NBA is reliant upon a team’s ability to generate easy points [i.e. high efficiency scoring opportunities] from the Foul Line. The Raptors have no players on their roster with the ability to generate large numbers of Free Throw Attempts in the 4th quarter.

* In half-court offensive situations there are few-to-no players with the ability to “break down” their individual defender off the dribble - without the benefit of a pick - in order to penetrate the perimeter of the defense and create easy scoring opportunities for their teammates.

* There are too many players with negative career Assist-to-Turnover Ratios who will need to play major minutes.

* The Raptors were a poor Points Allowed team last season and have added no experienced players this off season who should be capable of scoring more points themselves than the number of points which they will be responsible for allowing to their opponent, while still being adequate performers at the offensive end of the floor.

* The Raptors were a mediocre-to-poor rebounding team last season and have added no experienced players this off season who should be capable of securing more rebounds themselves than the number of rebounds which they will be responsible for allowing to their opponent, while still being adequate performers at the offensive end of the floor.

* While the Raptors have lost their best player from last year [i.e. Chris Bosh/C-PF], many of their opponents in the Eastern Conference have not and, in fact, have added other quality players to their roster this off season:

MIAMI HEAT, 5th place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Wade/D
Add - James/L, Bosh/C, Miller/M, Ilgauskas/Z and Howard/J
Lose - O’Neal/J, Richardson/Q, Wright/D and Beasley/M

ORLANDO MAGIC, 2nd place
Noteworthy:
Add - Duhon/C and Richardson/Q
Lose - Williams/J and Barnes/M

ATLANTA HAWKS, 3rd place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Johnson/J
Add - Larry Drew and Powell/J [?]
Lose - Mike Woodson

BOSTON CELTICS, 4th place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Pierce/P, Allen/R and Robinson/N
Add - O’Neal/J
Lose - Thom Thibodeau, Wallace/R and Allen/T

MILWAUKEE BUCKS, 6th place
Noteworthy:
Retain: Salmons/J
Add - Maggette/C, Douglas-Roberts/C, Gooden/D and Brockman/J
Lose - Ridnour/L, Bell/C, Gadzuric/D and Jackson/D

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS, 7th place
Noteworthy:
Retain: Thomas/T
Add - Dampier/E, Najera/E and Carroll/M
Lose - Felton/R and Chandler/T

CHICAGO BULLS, 8th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Thom Thibodeau, Boozer/C, Korver/K and Watson/CJ
Lose - Vinny Del Negro, Hinrich/K and Miller/B

INDIANA PACERS, 9th place
Noteworthy:
Add - George/P and Stephenson/L
Lose - None

NEW YORK KNICKS, 10th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Stoudemire/A, Randolph/A, Turiaf/R, Fields/L and Jordan/J
Lose - Lee/D, Harrington/A and Duhon/C

DETROIT PISTONS, 11th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Monroe/G
Lose - Brown/K 

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS, 12th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Doug Collins, Nocioni/A, Hawes/S, Battie/T [?] and Turner/E
Lose - Dalembert/S

NEW JERSEY NETS, 15th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Avery Johnson, Outlaw/T, Farmar/J, Morrow/A and Favors/D
Lose - Kiki Vandeweghe, Douglas-Roberts/C, Boone/J and Jianlian/Y

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PLEASE NOTE:

Although the Raptors just finished the Las Vegas Summer League with a 5-0 record, this performance was achieved without Andrea Bargnani [C] playing a single minute beside some combination of DeMar DeRozan, Sonny Weems, Ed Davis and Solomon Alabi … which is a fact the team’s basketball brain-trust WOULD DO WELL TO KEEP IN MIND, as the 2010-2011 season unfolds.

Related:

The Architecture of the Raptors

Can Toronto Overcome the Loss of Chris Bosh