Archive for October, 2011

ROI: Aldridge sees ‘check-mate’ coming around next corner

Monday, October 31st, 2011

Cut off at every turn, union has one choice: Take the deal

But this isn’t about fair. This is about the NBA putting its house back in order — naked, real-world realpolitik. If you understand nothing else about these negotitations, understand this: this isn’t just about money, at least not totally; this is about re-establishing who’s in charge.

For three years, starting in 2008, NBA teams twisted themselves into pretzels to clear cap space for the free-agent class of 2010. No single group of players ever wielded more brute force than that one, headlined by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amar’e Stoudemire. On the mere hope of getting James, the Knicks basically went into receivership for 36 months. The Bulls similarly cleared the decks; having lucked into Derrick Rose via the 2007 Draft, Chicago dumped the likes of John Salmons and Kirk Hinrich for almost nothing while it waited. Miami became a JUCO team for two seasons, while Riles and Andy Elisburg — the smartest cap guy in the league — bided their time and worked their spreadsheets.

And James lorded it over them, making them come to him in Ohio those first two weeks in July last year, then making the whole league watch his Decision on the Four-Letter Network, reality TV writ large, making all these billionaires and multi-millionaires nothing more than pawns, waiting for LeBron Trump to tell them who was fired and who was hired. Dan Gilbert went Comic Sans Crazy as his franchise lost $100 million in worth in the blink of an eye, and it scared the other owners out of their minds. It ticked them off, too.

Carmelo Anthony — also, like James, Wade and Bosh a member of the Draft class of 2003 — would wield his cudgel a year later, holding the Nuggets hostage for more than six months before he got traded to the team he wanted to be traded to all along, the Knicks (who, coincidentally, signed Stoudemire after missing out on Bosh, Wade and James). And the owners in small markets, already mad at the Commish for not having more “robust” (the league’s favorite word on this topic) revenue sharing, already feeling like they were falling further behind, got their backs up. The Jazz didn’t even wait for Deron Williams to humiliate them, sending him on his way to the Nets a year before they had to.

But the Players’ Spring has ended, cracked down with brute force, and now their options are bad or worse, and bad is on the 3:30 train out of town.

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It will certainly be interesting to see if the NBAPA is willing to die on principle … and, what eventually comes about if it, indeed, chooses to go this route.

One final solid decision made by LaRussa … as he rides off, into the sunset

Monday, October 31st, 2011

Cardinals’ LaRussa announces retirement

Tony La Russa retired as manager of the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday, three days after winning a dramatic, seven-game World Series against the Texas Rangers.

“I think this just feels like it’s time to end it,” the 67-year-old La Russa said at a news conference at Busch Stadium.

The World Series win over Texas was the third of La Russa’s 33-year career. The manager guided the Cardinals to the championship despite being 10 1/2 games behind Atlanta on Aug. 25 for the final playoff spot in the National League.

La Russa retires third on the all-time wins list, 35 behind second-place John McGraw. He also won world titles in Oakland in 1989 and St. Louis in 2006 and becomes the first manager to retire immediately after his club won the World Series, according to STATS LLC.

“Other than some of the personal attachments, I feel good,” La Russa said. “I feel good that this is the right decision.”

La Russa said there wasn’t a single factor that led to his decision, but he began having doubts about returning for 2012 midway through the season. In late August he told general manager John Mozeliak and other team officials.

La Russa said the timing of those discussions — about the time the Cardinals appeared to be out of wild card contention before their miraculous run — was pure coincidence. He said he simply felt it was time to go, a feeling that didn’t change even as the Cardinals squeaked into the playoffs on the final day of the season, then upset the Phillies, Brewers and Rangers.

He spoke with little emotion at the news conference with one exception, when he paused to compose himself as he thanked his wife, Elaine, and two daughters for putting up without him over much of the past 33 years. But he did say his meeting with players after Sunday’s parade and celebration was short but emotional.

“Some grown men cried,” La Russa said, then he joked, “I kind of liked that because they made me cry a few times.”

Raptors add Stefanski to create ‘new-look’ management team

Thursday, October 27th, 2011

Ed Stefanski is an established GM in the NBA.

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Raptors adding Stefanski to front office

The Toronto Raptors are finalizing an agreement with former Philadelphia 76ers general manager Ed Stefanski to take over as the franchise’s executive vice president of basketball operations, league sources told Yahoo! Sports.

Stefanski, who was fired as the 76ers’ GM a week ago, will report to Raptors president-GM Bryan Colangelo, who will still have final say on basketball matters. Stefanski will ultimately replace Masai Ujiri, who left Toronto to become the Denver Nuggets GM last year.

Colangelo conducted a lengthy search and ultimately targeted Stefanski in recent weeks for the job. Former New Orleans Hornets GM Jeff Bower was the runner-up. San Antonio Spurs assistant GM Dennis Lindsey had been a strong candidate, too.

By adding Stefanski and possibly another assistant GM and scouts, the Raptors are restructuring their player personnel department. After missing the playoffs for three straight seasons, Colangelo and new coach Dwane Casey are working with two-year contracts.

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In conjunction with the arrival of Dwane Casey [their new head coach] this off season, and Jonas Valanciunas’ [a promising young Center/No. 5 Pick in the 2011 NBA Draft] expected addition next year, if the Raptors can find their way into the upper half of the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery … either: [i] via trade, or [ii] through another season’s worth of inept on-court performance … there is – once again – no valid reason, whatsoever, for this franchise to be a perennial treadmill team.

ROI: High degree of ‘Basketball Acumen’ is what determines ‘winners’ from ‘losers’ in NBA

Wednesday, October 26th, 2011

Tom Haberstroh hits a home run:

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The payroll and competitive balance myth

What it means for competitive balance
Of course, we knew all along that the draft is important, but now we see it as an absolutely critical ingredient to the championship recipe. If payroll predicted championships, then the Knicks would have a dynasty by now. Instead, they largely ignored the draft, sold the lottery picks to other teams and look what it got them: a blood-red cell in the winning percentage column.

In order to be competitive in the NBA, you don’t necessarily need to have a lot of money, but you absolutely need to be smart with your money. And the smart money tends to be in the draft. When Stern says the system is broken because of the disparity in payroll, feel free to listen to the Lakers-Kings comparison but also note that the Thunder has been able to fast track success in a supposedly broken system.

Stern strives for a hard cap (or a punitive luxury tax disguised as one) and claims his pursuit is for the good spirit of competitive balance, but a closer examination shows that payroll and winning are not directly correlated.

What we’ve learned is that spending is cyclical. The smart organizations, like all businesses, try not to spend until they need to. As an example, the Boston Celtics’ payroll the year before they formed their Big Three? It ranked 19th in the NBA. The year before that it was 21st. They lost over 100 games over those two seasons.

The NBA might contend that the Celtics weren’t winning because they weren’t spending. But we must be careful about confusing cause and effect here. It may also be the case that the Celtics weren’t spending because they weren’t winning. Why throw big money at free agents when it won’t really move the needle for title contention? Perhaps it is better to keep costs low until you can swing a big trade or increase your chances to land a superstar in the draft (see: Thunder, Spurs, Bulls).

Teams run into trouble by buying average players in a free agency market that usually comes with a “winner’s curse” premium. If you spend money just to spend it, you find yourself in the in-between world that the Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors currently occupy. As we’ve seen time and time again, if you want to be competitive, follow the lead of most champions: build through the draft and be smarter with your cash.

Of course, it helps to have more cash, which allows teams to be more flexible and spend when they need to spend. But if there’s a disparity of haves and have-nots in the NBA, the real disparity can be found in management, not dollars.

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In fact, yours truly would go even further than Tom has in this article and assert unequivocally that the REAL disparity of haves and have-nots in the NBA is not found, either, [a] “in dollars,” or [b] “in management”, in a general sense, per se … defined as, “basketball-related decision-making, within a broad sphere” … but, rather, in something which is better defined, in a more narrow sense, as [c] “having the ability to appraise basketball-related NBA-level talent – insofar as selecting players in the draft, and the hiring of a GM and a head coach is concerned – with a high degree of accuracy.”

Why you should be willing to pay money to see Manu Ginobili play the game of basketball

Tuesday, October 25th, 2011

Andrew A. McNeill and David Thorpe, on the sublime talents of the San Antonio Spurs’ “Mr. Moneyball”:

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Thorpe writes about Ginobili

When taking apart his game, we see that each individual piece can at least be termed “good enough.” He rarely beats a defender with a powerful or eye-opening physical play, but he has made dozens of plays above the rim. But those types of plays don’t define his game. His talent lies in the “in-between game.” He can shift from gear to gear almost invisibly to the naked eye. On film, scouts point out his subtle skill at adding or subtracting speed just a notch or two to throw his defender off rhythm.

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Simply put …

According to the the facts, Manu Ginobili is one of the very best basketball players on earth, who actually excels in each phase of the game.

Main reason Kobe Bryant should still be considered, “The best basketball player on earth today.”

Tuesday, October 25th, 2011

Unfortunately, every once in awhile, someone in the on-line hoops community will attempt to assert that the best basketball player on the planet earth today is someone other than Kobe Bean Bryant, based on some type of logical, or statistical-based, evidence.

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When “counting the rings” goes wrong

At this point in time, there is no clear-cut way to determine if Player X is better than Player Y. Some may rely on PER, others will rely on the eye test, and the vast majority will count the rings.

As with any argument, though, there is a golden rule that should be followed to a tee: if you’re going to use it in debate, at least be consistent.

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Main reason average basketball observers cannot properly evaluate who the best players actually are, at a given point in time, however, is because they are incapable of making an accurate assessment of the array of inter-related basketball skills [i.e. both, "hard" and "soft"] that actually need to be considered when making a judgment about the quality of a specific player in relation to the abilities of his/her peers.

What you see below is a brief sample of the myriad “basketball skills” which SHOULD be used to develop an accurate appraisal of a specific player’s actual ability, relative to his peers:

BASKETBALL PLAYER, PHASE SPECIFIC SKILL-SET EVALUATION, BY POSITION
No. OFFENSIVE 1-5 DEFENSIVE 1-5 REBOUNDING 1-5
01 Fills transition lane quickly   Gets back in transition   Boxes out check  
02 Transition drives, R   Denies check ball   Goes to get ball  
03 Transition drives, L   Defends vs cutter   Reads ball coming off rim  
04 Half-court drives, R   Defends vs ball w/out a pick   Energy & will to retrieve misses  
05 Half-court drives, L   Hedges vs Pick   Consistent awareness and effort  
06 Perimeter catch & shoots   Switches vs Pick   SUB-TOTAL  
07 Perimeter shot fake & drives, R   Traps vs Pick      
08 Perimeter shot fake & drives L   Vs post-ups      
09 Mid-range catch & shoots   Rotates to help      
10 Mid-range shot fake & drives, R   Rotates to help-the-helper      
11 Mid-range shot fake & drives, L   Rotates to block a shot      
12 Pull-up jump-shot, right   Rotates to draw a charge      
13 Pull-up jump-shot, left   Blocks shots from off ball      
14 Consistent finish at the rim   Blocks shot, on ball      
15 Draws fouls   Vs ball in switch mismatches      
16 Free throw scorer   Deflections      
17 Post-up scorer   Steals      
18 Perimeter passer   Recovers loose balls      
19 Interior passer   Checks 1.5 positions off ball      
20 Lay-off passer   Physically tough      
21 Drive and kick passer   Mentally tough      
22 Passer out of post   Emotionally tough      
23 Creates shot for teammate   SUB-TOTAL      
24 Drives off pick, right          
25 Drives off pick, left          
26 Screener          
27 Picker          
28 Cutter          
29 Uses screen[s] to get open          
30 Gets open without screen[s]          
SUB-TOTAL          
SUMMARY
OFFENSIVE SUB-TOTAL   Out of 150   X .33  
DEFENSIVE SUB-TOTAL   Out of 110   X .33  
REBOUNDING SUB-TOTAL   Out of 25   X .33  
TOTAL  

If you complete this simple evaluation form for any current player in the NBA … using whatever specific measuring tools you prefer for each individual category … according to the position he plays, and then compare his overall score to the same evaluation form you also complete for Mr. Bryant, you should be able to see for yourself that the LA Lakers’ No. 24 is still, actually, “The best basketball player on this planet.”

NBA owners and players each dig in for a protracted lockout

Saturday, October 22nd, 2011

As was first mentioned in this space last Saturday

NBA lockout puts entire season in jeopardy

Commissioner David Stern has long warned that once games are missed, both sides might stiffen their proposals in hopes of recovering what’s been lost, which is why he said last week he feared games could be lost through Christmas without a deal this week.

After three days and 30 hours of meetings with a federal mediator, negotiations fell apart when union officials said they were told they must commit to a 50-50 split of revenues before owners would agree to discuss the salary cap system.

“Right now, they’re saying it’s got to be a precondition. If we’re going to meet, you’ve got to agree to accept 50-50. So as long as that edict is out there, then when are we going to meet?” Hunter said. “We’re saying we’re unwilling to meet unless we can talk about the system independent of the number.”

There is no indication owners will be prepared to go beyond a 50-50 split, and with players currently at 52.5 or 53, the sides are about $100 million apart on an annual basis.

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Unfortunately, for each side in this dispute the “lockout” was never ever about, “Doing what is best for the game of basketball.”

There is a good chance that there will be no NBA games played this season

Saturday, October 15th, 2011

What today’s TrueHoop article REALLY means …

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The moment the talks fell apart

“System changes”

There’s another thing that could be happening, too.

Remember The Decision? That night in July 2010, something happened that angered basketball fans like nothing else. It can be framed as LeBron James being egotistical, or cowardly, or whatever else. But it can also be framed as a young black man just being sick of doing what old white guys tell him to do.

There was a playbook for free agency, a procedure, some decorum. And James tossed it. No, after earning Dan Gilbert the sun, the moon and the stars, he does not also owe him a phone call. No, he doesn’t have to let some other, whiter, older entity control the production of his announcement. No, he doesn’t have to stick to the storyline of local hero, or even player. He really does have the power to play GM, to assemble a super team, and that’s what he would do.

The message to a lot of fans was that James just got it all wrong. But the message to a lot of players was that James did what 1,000 players have been dreaming of doing for years — he acted fully empowered — and it’s hard to say he failed at it. He made his millions, and the Finals. His team is intact. His business life is sound. He’ll be contending for championships for years.

It’s a business revolution with young black men, basketball players, in the corner offices. A new way of doing things, long overdue, and happening now.

And maybe that’s what Stern encountered in that hotel room in New York: a new generation of fully empowered players who no longer believe they have to conform to much of anything.

Just three days earlier, with James in attendance, James’ teammate Dwyane Wade had yelled at David Stern. “You’re not pointing your finger at me,” Wade said, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Ric Bucher. “I’m not your child.”

On Friday, a role player for a middling team got a surprise phone call, from just about the biggest name in the sport — somebody who had never called him before. The message: Hold firm at 53. We’re not caving. Hang in there. It wasn’t the only call of its kind, and when you talk to players now there is religious fervor, around the number 53, and around not giving owners any freebies on the other issues.

Owners are indignant that they have endured dreadful losses that must be righted. Players, meanwhile, are indignant that compared to the old CBA every concession to date has come from them. The issues are sounding more religious than ever, and it’s doubtful that, at the moment, anyway, either Hunter or Stern is capable of rallying his followers to build a bridge to the other side.

And if it’s driven by players’ blossoming and deep-rooted self-determination, then they can’t be expected to budge. I just hope, for the NBA’s sake, that they chose the correct line to draw in the sand.

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is that there will probably be no 2011-2012 NBA season with each side involved in the current lockout unprepared to meet the other at the halfway point between 47.0% [i.e. the NBA owners' best offer] and 53.0% [i.e. the NBAPA's minimum requirement], in terms of Basketball Related Income [BRI].

End of an era for the NFL

Saturday, October 8th, 2011

NFL icon Al Davis has died.

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Team: Raiders owner Al Davis dead at 82

The Oakland Raiders say longtime owner and Hall of Famer Al Davis has died. He was 82.

Davis, one of the most important figures in NFL history, is best known as a rebel, a man who established a team whose silver-and-black colors and pirate logo symbolized his attitude toward authority, both on the field and off.

It was Davis’ rebellious spirit, that willingness to buck the establishment, that helped turn the NFL into the establishment in sports—the most successful sports league in American history.

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A sad day for anyone who has ever been a fan of the Oakland Raiders.

We wear the Silver, we wear the Black,
We never retreat, we always attack.

R.I.P, Al … YOU – and, by extension, your TEAM – were truly one of a kind.

Related:

‘Mean’ Joe Greene remembers legend Al Davis

Al Davis, one the NFL’s greatest innovators, dies at 82

ROI: Mike Bianchi cuts to the chase …

Friday, October 7th, 2011

Unemployed workers could not care less if NBA cancels Season

Go ahead, NBA, and cancel the first few weeks of the regular season.

Better yet, go ahead and cancel the whole damn thing.

Knock yourselves out.

Lock yourselves out.

Do us a favor.

Do yourselves a favor.

Take the year off so you will comprehend what everyone on God’s green earth should comprehend at one time or another: That in the grand scheme of things, we just aren’t that important.

David Stern and LeBron James and the rest of the smug, arrogant, rich, pampered, greedy, spoiled, self-indulgent NBA needs to learn its lesson. And the lesson is this: America has had it with sports leagues and their so-called fiscal problems.

In this economic climate, the NBA labor dispute is a disgusting affront to those who have real jobs or, worse, have lost real jobs.