Archive for April, 2011

TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown: NBA Playoffs, 2nd Round Series Winners

Saturday, April 30th, 2011

FYI …

This continues the “unofficial entry” for yours truly in the annual contest run by Henry Abbott: 

Eastern Conference, Semi-finals

[1] Chicago [QIR/#1] vs [4] Atlanta [QIR/#15]
SELECTION: Bulls in 5.

[2] Miami [QIR/#2] vs [3] Boston [QIR/#5]
SELECTION: Boston in 6.

==================================

Western Conference, Semi-finals

[4] Oklahoma City [QIR/#9] vs [8] Memphis [QIR/#9]
SELECTION: Thunder in 7.

[2] Los Angeles [QIR/#4] vs [3] Dallas [QIR/#7]
SELECTION: Lakers in 6.

Recap: NBA Playoffs, Day 1 and 2, KSS GOTD Selections

Monday, April 18th, 2011

For the benefit of those with an interest in identifying profitable NBA Playoff games, in advance, with a high degree of accuracy …

This is what Khandor’s Sports ServiceGOTD Selections have been to this point:

Day 1, Sat-Apr-16
Indiana Pacers +12 [Winner, 1-0]

Day 2, Sun-Apr-17
Denver Nuggets +6 [Winner, 2-0]

Good hunting to all! :-)

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PS. FWIW … Day 3 is today.

NBA Playoffs are set for tip-off!

Saturday, April 16th, 2011

The NBA Playoffs are set to tip-off in approximately 40 minutes.

This year, there are a number of teams with legitimate aspirations to win the league championship, including:

Chicago Bulls [EC1]
Miami Heat [EC2]
Boston Celtics [EC3]
San Antonio Spurs [WC1]
LA Lakers [WC2]

based on:

#1. The overall ability level of their rotational players;

#2. The specific ability levels of their bonafide “star” players;

#3. The ability level of their coach [and his staff];

#4. The prior experience of their rotational players; and,

#5. The prior experience of their coach [and his staff]. 

Below this elite group, there is a larger 2nd tier, that is very strong, as well, but with individial teams that fall just short of the 1st tier, in one or more of the above criteria, including:

Dallas [i.e. deficient in #2]
Orlando [i.e. deficient in #2]
Oklahoma City [i.e. deficient in #3 and #4]
Denver [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4] 
New York [i.e. deficient in #1 and #3]
Philadelphia [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4]
Atlanta [i.e. deficient in #2, #3 and #5]
Portland [i.e. deficient in #1, #2 and #4]

Below this 2nd group, there is a 3rd tier, which contains individual teams that are not quite where the others are … as of yet … in terms of “readiness” to advance beyond the 2nd Round of the Playoffs, based on the criteria above AND specific personnel absences, including:

New Orleans [i.e. missing a key player in David West]
Memphis [i.e. Playoffs newbies]
Indiana [Playoffs newbies]

Given how close the top 5 teams are to one another this year, and to what degree the eventual outcome can/will be determined by a single crucial injury, at an inopportune moment …

Kudos to Marc Spears [Yahoo! Sports, NBA Analyst] for going out on a limb, early on, with his prediction for this year’s championship-winning team.

Related:
Odds To Win The NBA Championship

TrueHoop’s Stat Geek Smackdown: NBA Playoffs, 1st Round Series Winners

Friday, April 15th, 2011

FYI …

This is the “unofficial entry” for yours truly in the annual contest run by Henry Abbott: 

Eastern Conference, Quarter-finals

[1] Chicago [QIR/#1] vs [8] Indiana [QIR/#19]
SELECTION: Bulls in 5.

[4] Orlando [QIR/#3] vs [5] Atlanta [QIR/#15]
SELECTION: Magic in 7.

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[2] Miami [QIR/#2] vs [7] Philadelphia [QIR/#13]
SELECTION: Heat in 5.

[3] Boston [QIR/#5] vs [6] New York [QIR/#25]
SELECTION: Celtics in 6.

===================================

Western Conference, Quarter-finals

[1] San Antonio [QIR/#7] vs [8] Memphis [QIR/#9]
SELECTION: Spurs in 5.

[4] Oklahoma City [QIR/#9] vs [5] Denver [QIR/#12]
SELECTION: Nuggets in 6.

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[2] Los Angeles [QIR/#4] vs [7] New Orleans [QIR/#6]
SELECTION: Lakers in 5.

[3] Dallas [QIR/#7] vs [6] Portland [QIR/#11]
SELECTION: Trail Blazers in 6.

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PS. You might also benefit from knowing that no other “NBA Analyst” has forecast more playoff series accurately, in advance, over the course of the last 4 years, than yours truly. ;-)

Legitimate contenders to win the 2010-2011 NBA championship, Playoff Preview Edition

Friday, April 15th, 2011
TEAMWESTEASTPDPDRPAPARRDRDRQRQIR
Bulls#1+7.3291.32+5.8151
Heat#2+7.5194.66+3.03102
Magic#3+5.5593.74+3.52113
Lakers#1+6.1395.48+2.55164
Celtics#4+5.4691.11-0.818255
Hornets#2+0.91494.05+0.99286
Spurs#3+5.7498.014+0.711297
Mavericks#4+4.2896.010+0.711297
Thunder#5+3.89101.018+2.26339
Grizzlies#5+2.31097.613+0.810339
Blazers#7+1.51294.87-0.4173611
Nuggets#8+4.87102.721+0.7113912
76ers#5+1.51297.512-0.8184213
Hawks#6-0.81695.89-1.3224715
Pacers#7-1.119100.917+0.3155119
Knicks#8+0.815105.727-3.5287025
LEGEND: PD - Points Differential; PDR - Points Differential Ranking; PA - Points Allowed; PAR - Points Allowed Ranking; RD - Rebounding Differential; Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR - Quality Rating [i.e. QR = PDR + PAR + RDR]; QIR - Quality Index Ranking [i.e. No. 1-30].

PLEASE NOTE: Each NBA Champion for the last 10 years has had a QR ≤ 34.

Related:

What It Takes To Win The NBA Championship

‘Infant’ Raptors regress to square one

Thursday, April 14th, 2011

Kudos to the Raptors’ head coach for the dignified way he handled himself during today’s proceedings at the ACC.

Jay Triano’s End of Season Press Conference:

Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV

Part V

It is going to be very interesting indeed to hear what Bryan Colangelo will have to say … concerning such topics as:

i. His own contract status beyond June 30, 2011;

ii. Andrea Bargnani’s future role with the Raptors;

iii. The Raptors’ current ranking as the worst defensive team in the NBA;

iv. Jay Triano’s contract status beyond June 30, 2011;

and,

v. The opportunity to use the rest of the TPE – obtained in the Chris Bosh trade with Miami - which is set to expire later this summer 

… during his own end-of-season press conference on Monday, April 18, considering the team’s W-L results for the last 5+ seasons:

SeasonW-LWin%AtlanticEastPlayoffs
2005-20067-19.2694th12thMissed
2006-200747-35.5731st3rdLost 1st Round
2007-200841-41.5002nd6thLost 1st Round
2008-200933-49.4024th13thMissed
2009-201040-42.4882nd9thMissed
2010-201122-60.2685th14thMissed

What ‘development’ has been shown by the Raptors’ young players in this 22 win season?

Thursday, April 14th, 2011

In the aftermath of losing their 59th game of the season, Jay Triano appraised the Raptors’ performance in the following way:

It’s bitter. I mean, I don’t think anybody’s happy with our record. But at the same time there was some positives this year. The development of our players is probably the plus.

Question

What exact “development” is the Raptors head coach speaking about when he makes a statement like this?

Answer

Is he speaking about their individual improvement at the Defensive end of the floor? [... where the team has traditionally been amongst the worst in the NBA]

Is he speaking about their individual improvement in terms of Rebounding? [... where the team has traditionally been amonst the worst in the NBA]

Or …

Is he speaking about their individual improvement, primarily, at the offensive end of the floor? [... where the team has traditionally been amonst the best in the NBA]

OFFENSEDEFENSEREBOUNDINGIMPROVEMENT
STARTERS
PGCalderon/JSameImprovedSameDefense
OGDeRozan/DImprovedSameSameOffense
SFJohnson/JSameSameSameNone
PFEvans/RSameSameSameNone
CBargnani/AImprovedSameSameOffense
KEY SUBS
PGBayless/JImprovedSameSameOffense
OGBarbosa/LSameSameSameNone
SFKleiza/LSameSameSameNone
PFJohnson/AImprovedImprovedSameOffense & Defense
CDavis/EImprovedSameSameOffense
RESERVES
G/FWeems/SDeclinedSameSameNone
CAlabi/SSameSameSameNone
EXTRAS/OUTS
PFWright/JSameSameSameNone
PFDorsey/JSameSameSameNone
CAjinca/ASameSameSameNone

If you look at the chart above, you should be able to see clearly that one of the MAIN problems which the Raptors organization has had for quite some time is its inability to properly understand where the emphasis SHOULD be placed, if a franchise in the NBA has legitimate aspirations to move into the upper echelon, on a long term basis.

Pretty is, as pretty does … in this league.

Until MLSE, Bryan Colangelo, Jay Triano & Co., actually figure this out … everything else is, to a great extent, fundamentally immaterial.

MLSE at cross-roads with Raptors

Wednesday, April 13th, 2011

As the minutes tick down towards the end of the NBA’s regular season schedule this evening, it is looking more and more like someone very very high up within the power structure of MLSE has already decided not to extend the employment contracts of Bryan Colangelo, Jay Triano, and a bevy of the team’s additional support staff:

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Feschuk: Contract status clouds picture in Raptors’ front office

The future of the basketball leadership is far from the only unknown, of course. Peddie has announced his plans to retire at 2011’s end. And Teachers’ announced last month that it had retained a firm to round up potential buyers for its 66 per cent stake in Canada’s biggest sporting empire, which counts among its riches the Raptors, the Maple Leafs and the Air Canada Centre. While one understands the urge not to saddle a theoretical new ownership group with a newly re-signed hoops honcho, the sale is in its early throes and unlikely to be resolved imminently.

There are solid arguments for and against keeping Colangelo, and there’s something to be said for the fact that, with the NBA playoff tournament set to begin without a Canadian entrant for the third straight spring, the GM’s extension hasn’t been promptly rubber-stamped by an ownership group with a reputation for not paying enough attention to its sporting products. Still, if the pension plan was seriously considering cutting loose the GM, it should have begun seeking his replacement long ago. Sources say there is no such search in progress. And considering a critical draft looms in little more than two months, there’s a common-sense escape to the current morass.

Offering Colangelo a short-term extension — say, a two-year deal that’s only partially guaranteed — would be a logical course. In some ways it would be a humbling dose of reality for Colangelo to digest; it would be a prove-it-to-us contract for an NBA GM with two decades of experience who has twice been named the league’s executive of the year. But given the swirling circumstance, it’s hard to imagine Colangelo not agreeing to something of its sort. It wouldn’t hurt that Colangelo’s acceptance of such an agreement would surely come with a knowing handshake from Tanenbaum; a better deal could be in Colangelo’s near-term future, in other words, should the chairman, who holds first right of refusal on the Teachers’ shares, emerge from the pending sale tossing around more weight than his current 20.5 per cent stake allows.

————————————————————————-

Unlike Mr. Feschuk, however, yours truly does not believe that giving Bryan Colangelo a 2-year [limited?] contract extension, well after the conclusion of the regular season and before his current deal is set to expire [i.e. June-30-2011] is the best way for the Raptors to go about the building of an upper echelon franchise in the NBA.

Instead, what a compromise move like THAT would actually signify is that confusion reigns supreme within the administrative chamber of this professional sports franchise.

In this instance, the ‘right thing’ for the Raptors to do on Thursday, April 14, 2011  is, either:

i. Announce that each person will be signed to a new 3-year contract extension;

or,

ii. Announce that each person will, in fact, not be re-hired in their present capacity.

Decisive action is what’s needed from the ownership of this franchise, with a clear vision of how exactly to go about building its brand properly in today’s global marketplace.

The time may, finally, have come for Glen Silvestri and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan to stand their ground.

Projected finish for 2011-2012 Eastern Conference Standings, based on present ‘Individual Rankings’ for players and coaches

Wednesday, April 13th, 2011

As a tangible follow-up to yesterday’s blog entry concerned with,

Where exactly SHOULD the Raptors, as is, be expected to finish in the East next season,”

based on the strengths/weaknesses of their current personnel, relative to the other teams in their conference:

Projected finish for 2011-2012 Eastern Conference Standings, based on present “Individual Rankings’ for players and coaches

[Please Note: If you are viewing this entry in Google Reader, then, you will need to click on the link above, which has now been bolded.]

If the Raptors are, indeed, going to move up from 14th place in the East next season, to the No. 9-12 tier, then, they will need an upgrade at several positions, via [i] the 2011 NBA Draft, [ii] trades, and [iii] free agent acquisitions.

“I don’t have to be an insurance salesman,” says an emotional Tom Brady

Wednesday, April 13th, 2011

In the big-bucks world of professional sports, it is all too easy to fall prey to thinking that Sunday’s Heroes are something other than regular, everyday folk, with long-held and heart-felt hopes and dreams for personal success, in the face of daunting odds and untold anxieties.

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Best not to forget, however, that … when all is said and done … they, too, are but mere mortals, who laugh, and cry, and sweat, and bleed, just like every other man.