khandor’s sports blog

In spite of what you may have been told to this point by other individuals in the on-line hoops community, the main reason the New York Knicks have played only 8-12 basketball, since trading for Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Balkman and Shelden Williams has nothing to do with:

What Do We Know About Melo and the Knicks after Twenty Games

i. Carmelo Anthony being a less-than star quality

NBA player;

or,

ii. Their need to acquire a new assortment of more productive players than the ones they have already;

or,

iii. Mike D’Antoni doing a bad job and needing to be replaced.

The correct antidote to what presently ails the Knicks is, at-once, more simple AND more complex than any those proposed solutions.

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To wit …

When New York uses the following rotation:

STARTERS
PG, Chauncey Billips
OG, Landry Fields
SF, Carmelo Anthony
PF, Shawne Williams
C, Amare Stoudemire

KEY SUBS
PG, Tony Douglas
OG/SF, Bill Walker
PF/C, Ronny Turiaf

RESERVES
PG/OG, Roger Mason or Anthony Carter
PF, Renaldo Balkman
PF/C, Shelden Williams 

EXTRAS/OUTS
PG/OG, Anthony Carter or Roger Mason
PG/OG, Andy Rautins
PF, Jared Jeffries

they are a formidable squad capable of playing high level basketball …

because each of their individual players has a clear understanding of what his specific role is within the Team Concept.

OTOH …

When New York uses a rotation that looks like the following:

STARTERS
PG, Chauncey Billips
OG, Landry Fields
SF, Carmelo Anthony
PF/C, Ronny Turiaf
C/PF, Amare Stoudemire

KEY SUBS
PG, Tony Douglas
PG/OG, Roger Mason
SF/PF, Shawne Williams
PF, Jared Jeffries

RESERVES
PG/OG, Anthony Carter
OG/SF, Bill Walker
PF/C, Shelden Williams 

EXTRAS/OUTS
PG/OG, Andy Rautins
PF, Renaldo Balkman

they are a mediocre squad much more likely to perform at a low level …

because their 2nd unit is less potent, there is less role clarity and more overlap of individual responsibilities within the Team Concept.

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There is more than enough talent on the current version of the New York Knicks to earn the 6th position in the Eastern Conference and compete effectively in the 1st Round of the playoffs … if their team is healthy and Mike D’Antoni chooses to use his available players in their correct roles.

When assessing accurately the prospects of future success for the Raptors, it is important to keep in mind where the other Eastern Conference franchises are right now and what their chances of future success will be, in comparison with Toronto.

To wit:

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Lose 60 then win 40

As of this day, none of the players on the roster have shown that they can be a future Top 20 player in the league, there’s been glimpses of greatness here and there, but if you watch enough NBA basketball, you know that scrubs everywhere have 20 point games on a nightly basis.

At the same time, a team can’t afford to overhaul every summer, and the reality is that the Raptors will take forward the core of DeRozan, Davis, Johnson and perhaps Bargnani into next year. So what do you with these guys next year? If there is going to be a season, the target for next year has to be 40 wins. That’s a number that signals that a team is good, but lacking a piece or two to take them to the next level. That’s the number where fans can get excited about the future, knowing that they have a stable base. It’s the number that the Raptors have to get to which will signal that they’ve overcome the loss of Chris Bosh and have started anew.

How do you get to 40 wins? Improve defensively. You know the stats, you’ve seen the games, the Raptors are a terrible defensive team (dead last in the NBA for the second straight season) with problems ranging all the way from schemes to personnel to attitude to accountability and the list goes on. There is no hope for this franchise if they don’t become, at the very least, a middle-of-the-pack defensive team by next season.

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If you compare the respective situations for Toronto and Cleveland:

and, then, answer the following poll question:

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it might shed some new light on the correctness of your own perception of exactly where these two franchises actually stand, going forward, in terms of their individual capacity to begin to climb up the league standings next season.

When Bryan Colangelo was hired as the President/GM for the Toronto Raptors [February, 2006], the team’s recent record of achievement looked like this:

2004-2005, 33-49/.402, failed to qualify for the playoffs
2003-2004, 33-49/.402, failed to qualify for the playoffs
2002-2003, 24-58/.293, failed to qualify for the playoffs

In his first partial season with the team, the Raptors had a W-L Record for the last two months which looked like this:

2005-2006, March, 6-10/.375
2005-2006, April, 1-8/.111

At the end of the 2006 season, Bryan Colangelo had the following list of organizational assets at his disposal to build a sound NBA franchise in Toronto over the course of the next 5 seasons [i.e. the length of his original contract]:

1. Chris Bosh [C/PF], No. 4 [overall] Selection in the 2003 NBA Draft Lottery;
2. Significant Salary Cap Space;
3. Rafael Araujo [PF], No. 8 [overall] Selection, 2004 NBA Draft Lottery;
4. Joey Graham [SF], No. 16 [overall] Selection, 2005 NBA Draft;
5. Charlie Villanueva [PF/SF], No. 7 [overall] Selection, 2005 NBA Draft Lottery;
6. Jose Calderon [PG], UFA, Spain, 2005;
7. Morris Peterson [SF/OG], No. 21 [overall] Selection, 2000 NBA Draft;
8. Mike James [PG], UFA, Duquesne University, 2001;
9. Sam Mitchell [HC]; and,
10. 1st Round Selection [No. TBD?], 2006 NBA Draft Lottery.

During the summer of 2006, Bryan Colangelo made the following significant personnel decisions:

i. Acquired Andrea Bargnani [C] with the No. 1 [overall] Selection in the 2006 NBA Draft Lottery;
ii. Acquired PJ Tucker [G/F] with the No. 35 [overall] Selection in the 2006 NBA Draft;
iii. Acquired TJ Ford [PG], in a trade for Charlie Villanueva [PF/SF];
iv. Signed Anthony Parker, as an UFA [from the Euroleague];
v. Acquired Rasho Nesterovic [C], in a trade for Matt Boner [PF];
vi. Aquired Kris Humphries [PF], in a trade for Rafael Aruajo [PF];
vii. Signed Jorge Garbajosa [PF-SF], as an UFA [from the Euroleague];
viii. Signed Fred Jones [SF], as an UFA [from the Indiana Pacers];
ix. Retained Sam Mitchell [HC];
x. Hired Maurizio Gherardini [Assistant GM] and Marc Eversley [Director of Player Development];

which radically re-structured the roster in a single off-season.

During the 2006-2007 season, the Raptors, then:

- won 47 games [i.e. 573]
- finished 1st in the Atlantic Division [for the first/only time]
- lost in the 1st Round of the playoffs
- finished 13th in attendance [748,603]

Since this high water mark, however, the Raptors have generated the following list of results:

2007-2008
- won 41 games [i.e. 500]
- finished 2nd in the Atlantic Division
- lost in the 1st Round of the playoffs
- finished 9th in attendance [796,835]

2008-2009
- won 33 games [i.e. 402]
- finished 4th in the Atlantic Division
- failed to qualify for the playoffs
- finished 10th in attendance [769,707]

2009-2010
- won 40 games [i.e. .488]
- finished 2nd in the Atlantic Division
- failed to qualify for the playoffs
- finished 14th in attendance [733,784]
- lost the services of Chris Bosh

2010-2011
- will win 20-something? games [i.e. .280-ish?]
- will finish 5th in the Atlantic Division
- will fail to qualify for the playoffs
- will finish lower than 14th in attendance [TBD?]

with the following List of Annual Transactions.

At the end of the 2010-2011 season, Bryan Colangelo will now have the following list of organizational assets under contract for the Raptors next season, if he is rewarded with a contract extension, himself, as the President/GM of the team, in the off-season:

1. Andrea Bargnani [C], No. 1 [overall] Selection in the 2006 NBA Draft Lottery;
2. Ed Davis [PF], No. 13 [overall] Selection, 2010 NBA Draft Lottery
3. DeMar DeRozan [OG/SF], No. 9 [overall] Selection, 2009 NBA Draft Lottery
4. James Johnson [SF/PF], No. 16 [overall] Selection, 2009 NBA Draft Lottery
5. Jose Calderon, UFA, Spain, 2005
6. Linas Kleiza, No. 27 [overall] Selection, 2005 NBA Draft
7. Amir Johnson, No. 56 [overall] Selection, 2005 NBA Draft
8. Jerryd Bayless, No. 11 [overall] Selection, 2008 NBA Draft Lottery
9. Solomon Alabi, No. 50 [overall] Selection, 2008 NBA Draft
10. The remainder of the TPE obtained in the trade with Miami for Chris Bosh
11. Significant Salary Cap Space, if their own potential UFA are not re-signed
12. 1st Round Selection [No. TBD?], 2011 NBA Draft Lottery

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Your constructive explanation of your vote is welcome in the comments section.

There are approximately 10 games remaining in the regular season schedule for each team in the NBA. The current standings look like this.

When looking at the legitimate contenders to win the league championship this season, however, what you see is a significantly shorter list of teams:

Given “What It Takes To Win The NBA Championship,” and the fact that every title-winning team for the last 10 years has had a QR <= 34, there are only 9 teams with legitimate aspirations to go all the way, at this point:  

East Contenders

1. Chicago Bulls, QR = 4; QIR = #1
2. Miami Heat, QR = 13; QIR = #2
3. Orlando Magic, QR = 13; QIR = #2
4. Boston Celtics, QR = 26; QIR = #5

West Contenders

1. Los Angeles Lakers, QR = 14; QIR = #4
2. New Orleans Hornets, QR = 26; QIR = #5 *
3. Dallas Mavericks, QR = 29; QIR = #7
4. San Antonio Spurs, QR = 31; QIR = #8
5. Oklahoma City Thunder, QR = 34; QIR = #9

* – Mitigated due to the recent loss of David West.

Before sending Mike Bibby [PG], Maurice Evans [G/F] and Jordan Crawford [G] to the Washington Wizards, prior to the NBA’s deadline, in exchange for Kirk Hinrich [G] and Hilton Armstrong [PF/C], the Atlanta Hawks [40-32/.556] were firmly ensconced in the top half of the Eastern Conference with a Won-Loss Record of 34-23/.596.

Since that deal was made, however, the Hawks have been in a fairly rapid decent [i.e. W-L Rec/6-9/.400], and are now in danger of relinquishing the No. 5 position in the East to the hard-charging Philadelphia 76ers [37-34/.521].

Unlike assorted others in the on-line hoops community, who believe that the Hawks are in total disarray right now …

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The Atlanta Hawks are falling apart

The team is in a freefall mostly because it isn’t shooting as well as it used to. Joe Johnson still has his moments but he isn’t the sort of offensive force to build around, and while newly-added Kirk Hinrich is actually making nearly half of his three-pointers as a Hawk, everyone else seems to be falling short.

Worse? Everyone else seems to be falling into a bit of a funk. On record.

Joe Johnson?

The Hawks have no “sense of pride, a sense of urgency. … We should play for one another, but yet still we don’t.” And that “countless” players-only meetings meant to stir the echoes have “meant nothing.”

Al Horford?

“We just have to be mentally stronger.”

Coach Larry Drew?

His team is “a little fragile right now,” and the Hawks “have got to heal, more so mentally than physically.”

Josh Smith?

“When you don’t help each other, it gets contagious. We just didn’t show any kind of resistance.”

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this corner of the blogosphere can see a clear way out for the Hawks, if they will just remain calm and search for the right answer to their current set of problems, from within the cozy confines of their own roster of players.

If the Hawks go with the following rotation in their next game [Sat Mar 26, vs New Jersey]:

STARTERS
PG, Jeff Teague [i.e. their best play-making PG]
OG, Joe Johnson
SF, Marvin Williams
PF, Josh Smith
C, Al Horford

KEY SUBS
G, Jamal Crawford [i.e. their best "scorer" off the bench]
G, Kirk Hinrich [i.e. their best "defensive Guard" off the bench]
SF, Damien Wilkins
PF, Josh Powell [i.e. their best "mid-range shooting Big" off the bench]
C, Zaza Pachulia [i.e. their best "rebounding/defensive Big" off the bench]

RESERVES
PF/C, Etan Thomas
C, Jason Collins

EXTRAS/OUTS
SF, Pape Sy
PF/C, Hilton Armstrong

and, therefore, use MORE of their avalibale players … as opposed to scaling back the number of players they use in their regular rotation, which is precisely the major mistake that Larry Drew [Head Coach] has made, since the trade for Kirk Hinrich was completed … it should come as no surprise, at all, to see this team register a very badly needed W.

Once the Hawks can right their ship, by getting this W, and establishing a clear rotation, as outlined above, Atlanta should then be able to string together a modest 3-game winning streak:

Sat Mar 26 vs New Jersey, W?
Sun Mar 27 @ Cleveland, W?
Wed Mar 30 vs Orlando, W?

before taking on the Boston Celtics, at home, on April Fool’s Day.

Although the Hawks have only played at a .400 clip since the trade deadline, it should be noted that:

3-0, vs. sub-.500 [at the time of the game]

Fri Feb 25, @ GSW, W
Tue Mar 15, vs MIL, W
Sun Mar 20, vs DET, W

3-9, vs. plus-.500 [at the time of the game]

Sun Feb 27, @ POR, W
Mon Feb 28, @ DEN, L
Wed Mar 02, vs CHI, W
Fri Mar 04, vs OKC, L
Sun Mar 06, vs NYK, L
Tue Feb 08, vs LAL, L
Fri Mar 11, @ CHI, L
Sat Mar 12, vs POR, W
Wed Mar 16, vs DEN, L
Fri Mar 18, vs MIA, L
Tue Mar 22, vs CHI, L
Wed Mar 23, @ PHI, L

i. They have played an extremely difficult schedule of games;

and,

ii. Each one of their losses has been to a team in the top half of the league standings … with a great deal at stake, at the time of the game;

while,

iii. Atlanta has basically been in cruise-control since the end of January:

Hawks W-L Record, Month-By-Month

October, 3-0
November, 8-7
December, 10-7
January, 9-4
February [before the trade deadline], 4-5

secure in the knowledge that their team is probably not good enough to move into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference AND not bad enough to fall completely out of playoff contention.

As long as Larry Drew can keep his wits about him for the rest of the regular season schedule … and settle on the rotation suggested here … the Hawks should be able to regain their footing and re-establish themselves as the 5th best team in the East this season.

According to the individual player stats available at ESPN.com, these are the Top Centers, in the NBA this season, sorted by:

Points Scored Per Game

Question
How bad does Andrea Bargnani really have to be, in terms of:

1. Rebounds;
2. Blocked shots;
3. Steals;
4. Personal Fouls; and,
5. Turnovers;

in order to NOT qualify as one of the best Centers in the game today, given that he is actually the 2nd leading scorer in the entire league at this position?

Answer
Exceptionally bad.

Rebounds, No. 20
Blocked Shots, No. 23
Steals, No. 13
Personal Fouls, No. 28
Turnovers, No. 29

From a long term perspective for the Raptors … after almost 5 full seasons in the NBA … it is truly unfortunate that the No. 1 [overall] Selection from the 2006 NBA Draft Lottery is still nowhere close to being a Top Center in the league:

1. Dwight Howard
2. Tim Duncan
3. Pau Gasol
4. Chris Bosh [should be listed as a Center, not a PF]
5. Nene
6. Joakim Noah [non-qualifier/games missed due injury]
7. Al Horford
8. Amare Stoudemire [should be listed as a Center, not a PF]
9. Andrew Bynum [non-qualifier/games missed due to injury]
10. Emeka Okafor
11. Brook Lopez
12. Marc Gasol
13. Marcin Gortat
14. Tyson Chandler
15. DeAndre Jordan
16. Al Jefferson
17. Roy Hibbert
18. Jason Thompson

when considering the most important aspects of the game and not just scoring.

When Raptors need it most, Bargnani, DeRozan don’t step up

As the franchise moved forward in the wake of Chris Bosh’s departure, it was felt more players would get more touches in late-game sequences, a time when opponents couldn’t just lock in on one player when a variety of options would be considered.

But as Toronto’s lost season draws to its merciful end, conclusions can be drawn and it doesn’t exactly paint a pretty picture.

What must be understood is that both Bargnani and DeRozan are merely pieces, best suited as second and third options.

And unless the Raptors can somehow acquire a bona fide go-to guy this off-season, there will be more crushing nights and more reflection on missed opportunities.

In the NBA, at the end of the day it’s a game of stars.

At the end of games, stars are asked to make plays.

What the Raptors don’t have is a star.

At times, players have stepped up and games have been more winnable, but all one requires is a glance at the standings and there in black and white for all to see is Toronto’s 20-51 record and third straight season without a playoff appearance, a fate that became official when Indiana beat Charlotte well before the Suns subdued the Raptors 114-106.

“This league has been about your main guys making plays down the stretch,” said head coach Jay Triano, who has somehow managed to keep his sanity. “I think that’s what has to happen.

“Yes, you have to execute. And yes, you have to be sound defensively, but it takes star players to step up and make good plays.”

In Phoenix, Bargnani would lead all scorers with 27, but when it mattered most he was able to get off five shots in the fourth quarter, making just one.

Bargnani played eight fourthquar ter minutes, but didn’t take a shot until four minutes remained.

He wasn’t even a factor on the glass, getting outrebounded by Steve Nash, who produced only one board.

When Phoenix went into a two-three zone, DeRozan tried to attack it by going strong to the rim, only to have his attempt rejected by Marcin Gortat.

When the Raptors needed their two best players to step up, neither could as Bargnani and DeRozan went a combined 3-of-10 from the field in the final period.

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Kudos to Frank! … for hitting this one flush on the head.

David West is simply a terrific under-sized Power Forward …

who plays the game the right way, and is a joy to watch.

It really does leave a sick feeling in the pit of one’s stomuch when a single, awkward play …

can fundamentally change the remainder of a player’s pro career and the fate of his team’s entire season.

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Up-date:

Hornets F West out for season with torn ACL

What you should have noticed, thus far, this season is the gradual evolution of the Miami Heat around Chris Bosh, at the Center position:

5-Man Units for the Heat which include Chris Bosh

since this is actually the position he plays best, in the NBA, given his specific set of individual strengths and weaknesses [i.e. Exhibit A & B].

As Erik Spoelstra gradually begins to learn this about Chris Bosh, relative to the other players on Miami’s current roster, it will be very interesting to see if the Heat will increase the minutes Bosh plays at this position coming down-the-closing-stretch of the regular season, and into the playoffs … especially, if they can ever get 100% healthy and go to a regular rotation that looks like this:

STARTERS
PG, Mario Chalmers [i.e. best defensive PG, who should be starting]
OG, Dwyane Wade
SF, LeBron James
PF, Udonis Haslem [currently injured]
C, Chris Bosh

KEY SUBS
PG, Mike Bibby [i.e. best offensive PG, who should be coming off the bench]
OG/SF, James Jones
OG/SF, Mike Miller
PF/C, Joel Anthony

RESERVES
PG/OG, Eddie House
PF/C, Juwon Howard
C, Erick Dampier [or Jamaal Magloire] 
C, Zydrunas Ilgauskas [currently injured]

EXTRAS/OUTS
C, Jamaal Magloire [or Erick Dampier]
C, Dexter Pittman

If/when the time comes that Miami is able to firmly establish the following “pecking order” on their team:

#1. Dwyane Wade [i.e. their Co-Captain and most important player]
#2. Udonis Haslem [i.e. their Co-Captain and best defensive player]
#3. Chris Bosh [i.e. their Starting "Center"]
#4. LeBron James [i.e. their "Global icon" ... and 4th most important player]
#5. Mario Chalmers [i.e. their most important "role" player]
#6. Mike Miller [i.e. their most versatile "wing" player off the bench]
#7. Mike Bibby [i.e. their best "spot-up perimeter shooter" off the bench]
#8. Joel Anthony [i.e. their best shot-blocker/rebounder/defensive-Big]
#9. James Jones [i.e. their 2nd best "spot-up perimeter shooter" off the bench]
#10. Eddie House [i.e. their 3rd best PG, who is unafraid to take "big" shots]
#11. Zydrunas Ilgauskas [i.e. their best "perimeter shooting Big"]
#12. Juwon Howard [i.e. their 2nd best defensive/rebounding Big off the bench]
#13. Jamaal Magloire [i.e. their most physical "enforcer" off the bench]
#14. Erick Dampier [i.e. their least effective Big off the bench]
#15. Dexter Pittman [i.e. their future Big who is rehabbing and getting in "Heat-shape" this season] 

then, they will most likely become the “wagering favourite” to go all the way and win the NBA Championship that specific season.

The only question remaining is …

Will it happen this season, or sometime down-the-road?

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PS. Hat-tip to Tom Liston [re: basketballvalue.com].

Approximately 3 years ago, this corner of the blogosphere first identified Kris Humphries – then, a back-up Power Forward for the Toronto Raptors – as someone with the attributes to excel in the NBA, if he would ever be fortunate enough to find himself in the right situation, i.e. with the right head coach and accompanying personnel that are “good fits” with his individual game. 

Kris Humphries, 2011 Game Logs

If memory serves correctly, this was the line-up suggested by yours truly:

STARTERS
PG, Jose Calderon
OG, Anthony Parker
SF, Jamario Moon
PF, Kris Humphries
C, Chris Bosh

KEY SUBS
PG, Roko Ukic
G/F, Joey Graham
PF/C, Pops Mensah-Bonsu

as a solid core group for the future development of the Toronto Raptors.

As the 2010-2011 regular season draws to a close  …

2006 NBA Draft – Rudy Gay, No. 8 Selection, 1st Round [instead of Bargnani-A]

2007 NBA Draft – No Selection

2008 NBA Draft – Roy Hibbert, No. 17 Selection, 1st Round [instead of O'Neal-J]

2009 NBA Draft – Derrick Brown and Marcus Thornton, 2nd Round [instead of DeRozan-D]

2010 NBA Draft – Ed Davis, No. 13 Selection, 1st Round

2011 NBA Draft – ?

it is interesting to think of what “might have been” for the Raptors, since that time, if Bryan Colangelo had the character and the basketball acumen required to build a championship calibre team, in Toronto, one brick at a time …

STARTERS
PG, Jose Calderon
OG, Marcus Thornton
SF, Rudy Gay
PF, Kris Humphries
C, Chris Bosh

KEY SUBS
PG, Roko Ukic
OG, Anthony Parker
SF, Derrick Brown
PF, Ed Davis
C, Roy Hibbert

RESERVES
SF, Jamario Moon
PF/C, Rasho Nesterovic

instead of going for a “roster re-vamp” or a ”home run” each off season.