khandor’s sports blog

The last time these two teams played a game this season …

Davis leads Raptors to upset of Mavs

the Mavericks were embarassed on their home court by the Raptors.

Even though Dallas will be playing in the 2nd half of a back-to-back this evening … after barely escaping with a narrow victory yesterday, at Washington … it would be unsound thinking to expect the Mavericks to take the Raptors lightly this time around.

If the individual match-ups in tonight’s game end up looking like this:

	TORONTO RAPTORS	ADV	DALLAS MAVERICKS
STARTERS
PG	Calderon	=	Kidd	PG
G-F	DeRozan	=	Beaubois	G
F	Johnson-J	=	Stojakovic	SF
PF	Johnson-A	àà	Nowitzki	PF
C	Bargnani	à	Chandler	C
	0 x 0 = 0	Sub-total	3 x 4 = +12
KEY SUBS
G	Bayless	à	Barea	PG
G	Barbosa	=	Terry	OG
G-F	Weems	àà	Marion	F
PF	Davis	=	Haywood	C
C	Ajinca	=	Mahinmi	F-C
	0 x 0 = 0	Sub-total	3 x 3 = +9
RESERVES
F	Wright	N/A	Stevenson	G-F
C	Alabi	N/A	Cardinal	F-C
	0 x 0 = 0	Sub-total	0 x 0 = 0
EXTRAS/OUTS
F	Kleiza [inj.]	N/A	Butler [inj.]	G-F
PF	Evans [inj.]	N/A	Jones	G-F
PF	Dorsey	N/A
	0 x 0 = 0	Sub-total	0 x 0 = 0
COACHING
HC	Triano	àà	Carlisle	HC
	0 x 0 = 0	Sub-total	2 x 1 = +2
	0	TOTAL	+23

========================================

Published Wagering Line

Opening: Dallas Mavericks -8/-110

Current: Dallas Mavericks -8.5/-110 [as of 3:45 PM today]

========================================

KSS Prognostication

Dallas Mavericks -8.5/-110 is the way to go.

Rational

Expect Dallas to perform at a very high level in today’s game, by exploiting the inability of Toronto’s Bigs to effectively defend against a variety of Pick and Roll/Pop Scenarios involving Jason Kidd, JJ Barea, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler; while the Raptors will have a difficult time scoring efficiently inside against the solid defensive Centers of the Mavericks.

============================

Update:

Unfortunately, from a “sports-based financial investment” standpoint …

As of 5:00 PM today, Andrea Bargnani/C [i.e. out with flu-like symptoms] is no longer expected to play in this game.

Thus, “all bets on Dallas to cover the -8.5 are now off”, from the persepctive of this corner, at least … since the Raptors “Defense and Rebounding” c/should actually be substantially improved without their customary Starting Center logging 35+ minutes of PT.

When the team’s GM says stuff like this:

——————————————————-

“I just know that from our standpoint we’re looking at a list of 30 or 45 players that are in this draft class and there’s nobody at 28 or 29 which is where the Miami pick was at this moment, that is going to supercede his talent level or remotely come close to it.” – Bryan Colangelo on James Johnson

Read more: http://raptorsrepublic.com/#ixzz1FBIjpcyc

——————————————————-

Definition: Mendacity

… It is simply astounding that not a single member of the main-stream media confronts it, full force, to expose it as the complete “sham” which it happens to be.The RIGHT question[s] to ask isn’t whether James Johnson is a “better” player than what the Raptors could, possibly, find at the low end of the 1st Round in this summer’s NBA Draft but, rather:

Q1. If that low end 2011/1st Round Draft Pick was to be “packaged” properly with a collection of additional assets, as a “deal sweetener”, per se, “Could it have MORE future value than the player James Johnson?”

and,

Q2. Why on earth is a multi-million [billion?] dollar operation like MLSE concerned with the “cost savings” involved with comparing the monetary value of adding a 2nd-yr player like James Johnson, who will be in the final year of his initial rookie-scale contract next season vs the future monetary value of the low end 1st Round Draft [obtained from Miami] which the Raptors just sent to Chicago, that would come with a guaranteed 3-year salary commitment, in the first place?

PS. Instead of concerning itself with perpetually being under the Salary Cap and the LTT, a hugely profitable operation like MLSE should simply be trying to build a championship-winning calibre franchise. Period.

In the summer of 2009 yours truly made the observation that the 2008-2009 version of the Detroit Pistons had an on-going “internal” problem with their former head coach, Michael Curry, and the team’s core group of players who had been with Detroit during the successful run of the previous decade.

Essentially, this is what was said:

1. The Pistons had been unsuccessful, in large part … not because they had only “average-to-below-average” players on their roster, but … because the “average-to-above-average” players on their team had not been used appropriately by their head coach and such problems with their regular “rotation” would continue to be the primary cause of their failure, if the right head coach was not brought in by Joe Dumars/GM to address the situation moving forward.

2. Clear “Role Delineation” is a key component of a successful basketball coach’s job.

3. Fostering “Team Cohesion” is a key component of “Role Delineation” for a successful basketball coach.

4. An elite level basketball team that has several players who work best at the same position with a similar set of strengths and weaknesses needs to have their “individual roles” identified clearly by the head coach, in a way which establishes a clear hierarchy and allows their “best” players to receive the most playing time, on a consistent basis.

5. One way … of many different alternatives … to accomplish this type of “regular rotation” for the 2009-2010 Detroit Pistons, given their collection of Point Guards, Off Guards, Combo Guards, Guard-Forwards, Small Forwards and Combo Forwards would be to implement:

i. An exclusive 3-player rotation at the Point Guard and Off Guard positions;

in concert with,

ii. An exclusive 2-player rotation at the Small Forward position;

that looked something like the following:

STARTERS
PG, Rodney Stuckey
OG, Rip Hamilton
SF, Tayshaun Prince

KEY SUBS
PG-OG, Ben Gordon
SF, Jonas Jerebko [or Austin Daye]  

and, thereby, excluded Will Bynum [PG] – a talented player, in his own right – from the mix on a consistent basis.

This type of regular rotation would have promoted very clear “Role Delineation” amongst the Pistons’ guards and forwards and enhanced “Team Cohesion”. 

Unfortunately, instead of doing this …

Last Season 

John Kuester [i.e. new head coach] juggled his players incessantly in the different Point Guard, Off Guard and Small Forward roles;

and,

This Season

The problem has only become worse with the inclusion of Tracy McGrady [PG-OG-SF].

Exhibit A - Prince and Kuester have words. Again.

Exhibit B – Pistons aren’t playing hard

Exhibit C - Hamilton at center of Pistons turmoil

Exhibit D

Pistons’ turmoil boils over, coach ejected in loss 

———————————–

Despite what you might have read - either, recently or over the last 2 seasons - from other “so-called” basketball analysts who rely primarily on stat-based metrics like “Wins Produced”, etc., to evaluate the abilities and relative worth of NBA players …

The main problem for the Pistons, since Larry Brown’s departure, as their head coach, has not been rooted in the ”below average” abilities of their players but the “poor fit” between their “best” players and the men Joe Dumars/GM has hired as their next 3 head coaches, i.e. Flip Saunders, Michael Curry and John Kuester. 

While these Detroit teams have been short of the sort of overall “talent level” required to compete successfully for a place in the NBA Finals, this is not the main reason they have plummeted down the Eastern Conference standings, since the trade of Chauncey Billups [PG] for Allen Iverson [PG-OG].

In relative terms …

Authentic elite level basketball coaches are a rare commodity.

When a given NBA team fails to hire one of these select individuals to lead their on-court operation, it should really come as no surprise, at all, if the players on their roster are not able to reach their maximum capacity, either, individually or as a collective unit.

Hopefully, Joe D. will be able to solve THIS on-going problem for the Pistons.

While there is considerable angst today amongst Boston Celtics fans …

the view from this corner is that …

The current/future version of the “Men In Green” might well prove to be an even more formidable force than what’s played out, thus far, this season:

ARE THE BOSTON CELTICS’ REALLY WORSE OFF WITHOUT KENDRICK PERKINS?
	FORMER	ADV	CURRENT
STARTERS
PG	Rajon Rondo	=	Rajon Rondo	PG
OG	Ray Allen	=	Ray Allen	OG
SF	Paul Pierce	=	Paul Pierce	SF
PF	Kevin Garnett	=	Kevin Garnett	PF
C	Kendrick Perkins	ß	Shaquille O’Neal	C
	1 x 4 = +4	Sub-Total	0 x 4 = 0
KEY SUBS
PG	Nate Robinson	à	Delonte West	PG
OG	Delonte West	=	Von Wafer	OG
SF	Marquis Daniels	ààà	Jeff Green	SF
PF	Glen Davis	=	Glen Davis	PF
C	Shaquille O’Neal	=	Nenad Krstic	C
	0 x 0 = 0	Sub-Total	4 x 3 = +12
RESERVES
OG	Von Wafer	ß	Avery Bradley	OG
PF	Jermaine O’Neal	àà	Troy Murphy-? [or Leon Powe-?]	PF
	1 x 2 = +2	Sub-Total	2 x 2 = +4
EXTRAS/OUTS
PG	Avery Bradley	?	?	?
PF	Luke Harangody	ß	Chris Johnson-?	PF
C	Semih Erden	à	Jermaine O’Neal	C
	1 x 1 = +1	Sub-Total	1 x 1 = +1
ADDITIONAL ASSETS
		ààà	1st Rd Draft Pick, 2012/LAC	?
		à	2nd Rd Draft Pick, 2013/CLE	?
		à	2nd Rd Draft Pick, 2017/SAC	?
	0 x 0 = 0	Sub-Total	5 x 1 = +5
	+7	TOTAL	+22

When you examine carefully what Danny Ainge/GM did yesterday:

TRADE 1 – Sending Kendrick Perkins/C and Nate Robinson/PG to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green/SF-PF and Nenad Krstic/C;

TRADE 2 – Sending Semih Erden/C and Luke Harangody/PF to Cleveland for a 2nd Round Draft Pick/2013;

and,

TRADE 3 – Sending Marquis Daniels/SF to Sacramento for a 2nd Round Draft Pick/2017;

which cost the Celtics:

* 1 Starting Center … with a history of injury problems

* 1 Back-up PG … with a history of erratic performances

* 1 Back-up SF … with a recent spinal cord injury

* 1 Back-up PF … with no prior history of post-season success

* 1 Back-up C … with no prior history of post-season success

while bringing on-board:

* 1 Starting SF-PF … who will now be used only as a Key Back-up

* 1 Starting C … who will now be used only as a Key Back-up

* 1 Starting PF … who will be used only as Key Back-up

* 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick/2012 … which will probably be a “Lottery” selection

* 1 Future 2nd Round Draft Pick/2013 … which will probably be a No. 30-40 selection

* 1 Future 2nd Round Draft Pick/2017 … which will probably not be used by Boston

… if they can now add an experienced player like Troy Murphy/PF [and/or Leon Powe/PF] to their mix, as a recently “bought out player”, by way of Golden State [or Cleveland] …

then, the chances are actually pretty good that Boston will be able to:

A. Maintain their current status in the East, as the “No. 1 contender” this season;

AND,

B. Re-stock their “talent” cupboard, in the not-too-distant future, as their “Big 3″ continue to age.

Time will tell if kudos are due once more to Ole Danny Boy … who has already stared down his critics before while using the diverse talents of Jeff Green to bring an NBA Championship to the Celtics.

After acquiring James Johnson from Chicago, on Tuesday, the Raptors turned around and beat the Bulls, on Wednesday, at home, by out-scoring them 7-2 during the final 1:05 of the 4th quarter.

Chicago Bulls 113
TORONTO RAPTORS [16-42] 118
Complete Game Info

Chicago: Pts/Possession, 0.974; PPP-Diff, -0.161
TORONTO: Pts/Possession, 1.135; PPP-Diff, +0.161

Last night, however, the Bulls were able to beat the Miami Heat, in the 2nd half of a back-to-back, by out-scoring the visitors 4-0 during the final 36.8 of the 4th quarter.

Miami Heat [42-16] 89
CHICAGO BULLS [39-17] 93
Complete Game Info

Miami: Pts/Possession, 0.864; PPP-Diff, -0.005 
CHICAGO: Pts/Possession, 0.869; PPP-Diff, +0.005

Although Toronto played a very solid game against Chicago:

From a Bulls’ perspective …

It would be highly accurate to observe that Chicago, in all likelihood, was looking past the lowly Raptors with their eyes firmly fixed on beating the Miami Heat for the 2nd time this season - the following day - and, thereby, winning the head-to-head match-up against an opponent they might be facing in the playoffs this spring;

while,

From a Raptors’ perspective …

It would also be highly accurate to observe that Toronto is:

A much bigger team, physically, and a good deal more athletic, in general, with James Johnson in their “Starting 5-Man Unit”:

PG, Jose Calderon
OG, DeMar DeRozan
SF, James Johnson
PF, Amir Johnson
C, Andrea Bargnani

playing at the Small Forward position, in conjunction with the following groups of:

Key Subs

PG-OG, Jerryd Bayless 
PG-OG, Leandro Barbosa
OG-SF, Sonny Weems
PF, Ed Davis
C, Alexis Ajinca

Reserves 

SF-PF, Julian Wright
C, Solomon Alabi

and,

Extras/Outs

SF-PF, Linas Kleiza [Injured-Inactive]
PF, Reggie Evans [Injured-Inactive]
PF, Joey Dorsey [DNP-Inactive]

In fact …

if the Raptors decide to use James Johnson in this capacity for the balance of the regular season

… there is now a very good chance that Toronto will be able to play something close to .500 basketball the rest of the way:

TORONTO RAPTORS SCHEDULE, GAMES 59-82
Game	Date	Opponent	Result	W/L	Overall
59	Feb 25	V Phoenix	L	0-1	16-43
60	Feb 27	V Dallas	L	0-2	16-44
61	Mar 1	V New Orleans	W	1-2	17-44
62	Mar 4	* New Jersey	W	2-2	18-44
63	Mar 5	* New Jersey	W	3-2	19-44
64	Mar 9	V Utah	W	4-2	20-44
65	Mar 11	V Indiana	L	4-3	20-45
66	Mar 13	V Charlotte	W	5-3	21-45
67	Mar 16	@ Detroit	W	6-3	22-45
68	Mar 18	V Washington	W	7-3	23-45
69	Mar 20	@ Oklahoma City	L	7-4	23-46
70	Mar 21	@ Denver	L	7-5	23-47
71	Mar 23	@ Phoenix	L	7-6	23-48
72	Mar 25	@ Golden State	L	7-7	23-49
73	Mar 26	@ LA Clippers	L	7-8	23-50
74	Mar 30	V Milwaukee	W	8-8	24-50
75	Apr 2	@ Chicago	L	8-9	24-51
76	Apr 3	V Orlando	W	9-9	25-51
77	Apr 5	@ New York	L	9-10	25-52
78	Apr 6	V Cleveland	W	10-10	26-52
79	Apr 8	@ Philadelphia	L	10-11	26-53
80	Apr 10	V New Jersey	W	11-11	27-53
81	Apr 11	@ Milwaukee	L	11-12	27-54
82	Apr 13	V Miami	L	11-13	27-55

and, thereby, win enough games to MOVE OUT of a high Draft Lottery Selection [i.e. No. 1-5]:

CURRENT NBA STANDINGS AND PLAYOFF SEEDS
No.	EAST/Seed	WEST/Seed	W	L	WIN%
High Draft Lottery
30	CLE		10	47	.175
29		MIN	13	45	.225
28		SAC	14	41	.255
27	WAS		15	41	.268
26	TOR		16	42	.276
Mid-Low Draft Lottery
25	NJN		17	40	.298
24	DET		21	38	.356
23		LAC	21	37	.362
22	MIL		22	35	.386
21	CHA		25	32	.439
20		GSW	26	30	.464
18		HOU	28	31	.475
16		PHO	28	27	.509
14		UTH	31	27	.534
Tier 2
19	IND/#8		26	30	.464
17	PHI/#7		28	29	.491
15	NYK/#6		29	26	.527
13		MEM/#8	32	47	.542
12		POR/#7	32	25	.561
11		DEN/#6	32	25	.576
10		NOR/#5	34	25	.576
9	ATL/#5		34	23	.596
Tier 1
8	ORL/#4		36	22	.621
7		OKC/#4	36	20	.643
6		LAL/#3	40	19	.678
5	CHI/#3		39	17	.692
4		DAL/#2	41	16	.719
3	MIA/#2		42	16	.724
2	BOS/#1		41	15	.732
1		SAS/#1	47	10	.825

which, traditionally, is where the vast majority of authentic ELITE LEVEL players have been found by the best teams in the league.

2 summers ago, James Johnson was one of several players who were eligible for the 2009 NBA Draft that yours truly suggested SHOULD be targets for the Raptors in the mid-late stages of the 1st Round, in the unlikely event that he was still available and Toronto did the right thing by TRADING OUT OF THE No. 9 POSITION … which is where they selected DeMar DeRozan … to secure additional assets for their franchise moving forward, either, with or without Chris Bosh. To see the Raptors make a belated play for him now, at the expense of:

A. The late 1st Round Draft Pick/2011 they just traded to Chicago;

and,

B. The likely opportunity to EARN a Top 5 Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery;

is disappointing and a sign of just how badly this organization is lacking the type of forward-thinking “basketball acumen” required to ever be able to build a league championship-winning team in Toronto.

Unfortunately, when it comes to eventually developing into an authentic upper echelon team in the Eastern Conference, everything which the Raptors choose to do … when they choose to do it … is a step late and/or a dollar short.

If there is a single day this entire season which perfectly encapsulates the currently woeful state of the Raptors franchise it is Tuesday, February 22, 2011.

ITEM #1

Toronto Raptors [15-42] 101
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS [25-32] 114
Complete Game Info

———————————–

Toronto Raptors (15-42)
	pos	min	fgm-a	3pm-a	ftm-a	+/-	off	def	tot	ast	pf	st	to	bs	ba	pts	KPER
Weems	F	37:38	9-13	1-1	0-0	-6	1	3	4	1	4	1	4	0	0	19	+13
Johnson	F	22:20	1-2	0-0	4-6	-6	4	2	6	1	3	0	0	1	0	6	+8
Bargnani	C	32:29	7-15	0-3	4-5	-15	0	8	8	1	5	1	2	0	1	18	+12
DeRozan	G	35:11	7-15	0-0	0-0	-12	1	3	4	1	4	0	2	0	1	14	+5
Calderon	G	28:49	3-7	0-0	0-0	-13	1	3	4	11	3	1	2	0	1	6	+13
Davis		26:38	4-8	0-0	0-0	-4	1	6	7	0	3	0	0	2	1	8	+10
Bayless		21:28	0-4	0-1	11-12	+1	0	5	5	10	4	1	4	0	1	11	+14
Barbosa		17:57	2-6	0-2	0-0	-10	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	4	-1
Ajinca		13:44	4-6	1-2	1-2	-2	0	2	2	0	4	0	1	0	0	10	+4
Wright		02:57	2-2	0-0	1-1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	+5
Dorsey		00:49	0-0	0-0	0-0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alabi		00:00	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total		240	39-78	2-9	21-26		8	33	41	25	32	4	15	3	5	101	+82
			50.0%	22.2%	80.8%		team rebs: 6			total to: 15
Est. Possessions: 104
Pts/Poss: 0.971
Pts/Poss Diff: -0.085

 

Charlotte Bobcats (25-32)
	pos	min	fgm-a	3pm-a	ftm-a	+/-	off	def	tot	ast	pf	st	to	bs	ba	pts	KPER
Wallace	F	34:30	3-6	0-1	14-15	+16	0	6	6	2	2	1	1	1	0	20	+23
Diaw	F	37:32	6-10	1-3	3-3	+24	0	3	3	9	3	4	2	1	0	16	+22
Brown/K	C	21:09	3-6	0-0	2-3	-2	2	2	4	0	2	0	1	1	1	8	+7
Jackson	G	26:14	5-11	1-3	2-2	+19	0	2	2	5	1	2	2	1	0	13	+16
Augustin	G	35:41	8-15	2-7	5-5	+12	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	1	23	+25
Mohammed		23:57	4-9	0-0	0-2	+19	4	10	14	0	2	0	0	0	0	8	+15
Henderson		27:15	5-11	0-0	5-8	+4	2	4	6	0	2	0	3	0	1	15	+7
Livingston		12:19	2-7	0-0	2-2	+1	0	2	2	0	1	1	0	1	0	6	+4
Najera		07:34	0-1	0-0	1-2	-7	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	1	-1
Brown/D		06:59	0-1	0-0	0-0	-11	2	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	-1
Carroll		03:56	0-2	0-0	0-0	-6	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	-2
McGuire		02:54	2-2	0-0	0-0	-4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	+3
Total		240	38-81	4-14	34-42		11	30	41	25	19	9	9	5	3	114	+118
			46.9%	28.6%	81.0%		team rebs: 7			total to: 9
Est. Possessions: 108
Pts/Poss: 1.056
Pts/Poss Diff: +0.085

[Note: For an explanation of "kPER", "Est. Possessions", "Pts/Poss" and "Pts/Poss Diff", please see the blog entry below this one and the one from February 18.]

———————————–

ITEM #2

Oak gets assist in Charlotte as Bobcats down Raptors 114-101

PART I

“It was men against boys.” – Jay Triano 

PART II

“Does management (in Toronto) want to win? They’ve got some good athletes. What’s the problem? Who’s the coach? If they’re not playing D, I blame the coach.” – Charles Oakley

Item #3

Bulls trade James Johnson to Raptors

PART I

Chicago was willing to trade the No. 16 [overall] Selection from the 2009 NBA Draft to Toronto, in exchange for a low 1st Round Draft Pick [i.e. Miami's] this summer.

This alone should tell you everything you need to know about the ability of James Johnson to have a ”positive” effect on the Raptors’ fortunes moving forward.

PART II

While the Bulls have done a nice job adding a collection of solid pieces to their puzzle, after drafting Derrick Rose with the No. 1 [overall] Selection in the 2009 NBA Draft …

e.g. including the likes of Thom Thibodeau [HC], Carlos Boozer [PF], Taj Gibson [PF], Kyle Korver [OG-SF], CJ Watson [PG], Keith Bogans [OG-SF], Ronnie Brewer [SF], Omer Asik [C], Kurt Thomas [PF-C] and Brian Scalabrine [PF-C] …

The Raptors now have almost as many Power Forwards on their roster:

1 Amir Johnson
2 Ed Davis
3 Linas Kleiza [SF]
4 James Johnson [SF]
5 Joey Dorsey
6 Reggie Evans

as the Minnesota Timberwolves [i.e. another of the league's laughingstock franchises], 

a group of mostly mediocre Small Forwards:

7 DeMar DeRoza
   Linas Kleiza [PF]
8 Sonny Weems
   James Johnson [PF]
9 Julian Wright

none of whom projects out as a future “star” player in the NBA,

a trio of solid but equally unspectacular Point Guards:

10 Jose Calderon
11 Leandro Barbosa
12 Jerryd Bayless

to go with their muffed No. 1 [overall] Selection from the 2006 NBA Draft, leading the way at the Center position:

13 Andrea Bargnani
14 Alexis Ajinca
15 Solomon Alabi.

When you put the puzzle pieces together for the Raptors, what you then get is two-fold:

#1. A recipe for long term on-court mediocrity;

and,

#2. A recipe for long term off-court financial flexibility and profit.

PART III

If you take a close look at the players chosen with the Top 5 Selections for the NBA Draft, since 1992:

TOP 5 DRAFT PICKS, SINCE 1992, STILL PLAYING IN THE NBA TODAY
QR	QIR	EAST	WEST	No. 1	No. 2	No. 3	No. 4	No. 5
7	1	CHI		Rose-D/2008			Thomas-Ty/2007
12	2	MIA		James-L/2003			Bosh-C/2003	Wade-D/2003 Howard-J/1994
13	3	ORL		Howard-D/2004				Richardson-J/2001
19	4		LAL	Smith-Joe/1995		Gasol-P/2001	Odom-L/1999
22	5		NOR		Okafor-E/2004		Paul-C/2005
23	6		SAS	Duncan-T/1997	McDyess-A/1995
24	7	BOS		O’Neal-S/1992				Allen-T/1996 Garnett-K/1995
33	8		DAL		Chandler-T/2001 Kidd-J/1994
37	9		POR	Oden-G/2007	Aldridge-L/2006 Camby-M/1996
38	10		OKC		Durant-K/2007	Harden-J/2009	Westbrook-R/2008	Green-J/2007
38	10	ATL			Williams-M/2005 Bibby-M/1998	Horford-A/2007		Williams-S/2006
38	10	MIL		Bogut-A/2005			Gooden-D/2002
40	13	PHI		Brand-E/1999	Turner-E/2010			Battie-T/1997
41	14	CHA		Brown-K/2001		Morrison-A/2007	Livingston-S/2004
43	15		MEM		Thabeet-H/2009	Mayo-OJ/2008	Conley-M/2007
46	16		LAC	Griffin-B/2009		Davis-B/1999
47	17	IND				Dunleavy-M/2002
54	18		DEN	Martin-K/2000				Felton-R/2005
55	19		SAC				Evans-T/2009	Cousins-D/2010
56	20	NJN				Favors-D/2010		Harris-D/2004
58	21		UTH			Williams-D/2005
61	22		HOU	Ming-Y/2002
63	23		MIN		Beasley-M/2008 Milicic-D/2003		Johnson-W/2010 Curry-E/2001	Love-K/2008 Rubio-R/2009
65	24	DET			Gordon-B/2004
70	25	NYK				Anthony-C/2003 Billups-C/1997
72	26	TOR		Bargnani-A/2006
73	27		PHO			Hill-G/1994		Carter-V/1998
75	28		GSW
76	29	WAS		Wall-J/2010
88	30	CLE					Jamison-A/1998
Currently Out of the NBA				Olowokandi/1998 Iverson-A/1996 Robinson-G/1994 Webber-C/1993	Williams-J/2002 Swift-S/2000 Francis-S/1999 Van Horn-K/1997 Bradley-S/1993 Mourning-A/1992	Miles-D/2000 LaFrentz-R/1998 Abdur-Rahim/1996 Stackhouse-J/1995 Hardaway-A/1993 Laettner-C/1992	Fizer-M/2000 Daniles-A/1997 Marbury-S/1996 Wallace-R/1995 Marshall-D/1994 Jackson-J/1992	Tskitishvili-J/2002 Miller-M/2000 Bender-J/1999 Ellis-L/1992

[Note: For an explanation of "QR" and "QIR", please see the following.]

it really isn’t very difficult to identify the reasons why the Raptors have never made it past the 2nd Round of the Playoffs, and are once again headed toward the bottom of the league standings.

Name	Team	KPER	TWLC	IPR	Rank
LeBron James	MIA	25.5	4.16	29.66	1
Pau Gasol	LAL	23.6	2.96	26.57	2
Dwight Howard	ORL	23.9	2.30	26.20	3
Dwyane Wade	MIA	21.8	4.03	25.83	4
Derrick Rose	CHI	21.8	3.50	25.30	5
Kevin Durant	OKC	23.8	1.32	25.12	6
Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	20.9	3.43	24.34	7
Al Horford	ATL	21.5	1.91	23.42	8
Joakim Noah	CHI	19.6	3.39	22.99	9
Rajon Rondo	BOS	18.7	4.11	22.81	10
Zach Randolph	MEM	21.9	0.78	22.68	11
Amar’e Stoudemire	NY	22.2	0.31	22.51	12
Tim Duncan	SA	18.1	4.32	22.42	13
Kevin Love	MIN	26.9	-4.59	22.31	14
Kobe Bryant	LAL	19.6	2.70	22.30	15
Steve Nash	PHO	22.0	0.14	22.14	16
Chris Paul	NO	20.9	0.19	22.10	17
Kevin Garnett	BOS	18.6	3.41	22.01	18
Tony Parker	SA	17.1	4.90	22.00	19
LaMarcus Aldridge	POR	20.6	1.32	21.92	20
Russell Westbrook	OKC	20.7	1.19	21.90	21
Chris Bosh	MIA	17.8	3.90	21.70	22
Carlos Boozer	CHI	18.6	2.97	21.57	23
Deron Williams	UTA	20.7	0.79	21.49	24
Manu Ginobili	SA	16.2	4.68	20.88	25
Lamar Odom	LAL	18.2	2.66	20.83	26
Carmelo Anthony	DEN	19.6	1.04	20.64	27
Blake Griffin	LAC	22.6	-2.21	20.39	28
Paul Pierce	BOS	16.4	3.77	20.17	29
Josh Smith	ATL	18.2	1.90	20.10	30
David West	NO	17.7	1.18	18.88	31
Ray Allen	BOS	14.9	3.93	18.83	32
Al Jefferson	UTA	17.6	0.74	18.34	33
Luol Deng	CHI	14.7	3.59	18.29	34
Rudy Gay	MEM	17.3	0.83	18.13	35
Joe Johnson	ATL	16.1	1.96	18.07	36
Jason Kidd	DAL	14.3	3.38	17.69	37
Paul Millsap	UTA	16.9	0.72	17.62	38
Raymond Felton	NY	17.3	0.32	17.62	38
Monta Ellis	GS	18.1	-0.52	17.58	40
Tyson Chandler	DAL	14.7	2.83	17.54	41
Nene Hilario	DEN	16.6	0.90	17.50	42
Andre Iguodala	PHI	17.1	-0.31	16.79	43
David Lee	GS	17.2	-0.45	16.75	44
Luis Scola	HOU	17.3	-0.70	16.60	45
Elton Brand	PHI	16.8	-0.29	16.51	46
Andre Miller	POR	15.1	1.10	16.20	47
Stephen Curry	GS	16.3	-0.42	15.88	48
Chauncey Billups	DEN	14.9	0.95	15.85	49
Marcus Camby	POR	14.7	0.96	15.66	50

NOTES:
1. IPR = Individual Player Rating [i.e. kPER + TWLC].
2. kPER = khandor’s Player Efficiency Rating [i.e. (Pts - (FGM-FGA) - (FTA-FTM) + Reb + Ast - TO + St + BS - PF)/GP].
3. TWLC = Team Wins and Losses Contribution [i.e. MPG/240 * (Team Wins - Team Losses)].
4. MPG = Minutes Per Game.
5. Rank = IPR Ranking [i.e. Nos. 1-50].
6. Individual statistics for “All” NBA players.

Related:

Production level of every NBA player, prior to the 2011 All-Star Game

If the New York Knicks were indeed forced to include each of the following assets in their just-completed trade for Carmelo Anthony:

1. Raymond Felton/PG;
2. Danilo Gallinari/SF-PF;
3. Wilson Chandler/OG-SF;
4. Timofey Mozgov/C;
5. Anthony Randolph/SF-PF [sent to Minnesota];
6. Eddy Curry/C [sent to Minnesota];
7. 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick [2014]; and,
8. 2 Future 2nd Round Draft Picks [obtained from Golden State in exchange for David Lee last summer]; 

then, it was certainly a hefty price to pay for the “opportunity” to field the following line-up the remainder of this season:

STARTERS
1 Chauncey Billups, PG
2 Landry Fields, OG
3 Carmelo Anthony, SF
4 Ronny Turiaf, PF
5 Amare Stoudemire, C

BACK-UPS
6 Tony Douglas, PG
7 Andy Rautins, PG-OG
8 Roger Mason, PG-OG
9 Kelenna Azubuike, OG-SF
10 Bill Walker, OG-SF
11 Shawne Williams, SF-PF
12 Renaldo Blackman, PF
13 Shelden Williams, PF

and “the possibility” of adding a player like Chris Paul, as well, somewhere down-the-road.

If Denver and Minnesota do actually decide to keep each of the players obtained by their respective teams in this reported transaction:

KNICKS, NUGGETS AND TIMBERWOLVES ROSTERS, AFTER COMPLETING BLOCKBUSTER TRADE INVOLVING CARMELO ANTHONY
No.	Pos	NEW YORK	Pos	DENVER	Pos	MINNESOTA
STARTERS
1	PG	Billups	PG	Felton	PG	Flynn
2	OG	Fields	OG	Afflalo	OG	Johnson
3	SF	Anthony	SF	Gallinari	SF	Beasley
4	PF	Turiaf	PF	Martin	PF	Love
5	C	Stoudemire	C	Nene	C	Milicic
KEY SUBS
6	PG	Douglas	PG	Lawson	PG	Ridnour
7	OG	Walker	OG	Smith	OG	Ellington
8	SF	Williams/Sha	SF	Chandler	SF	Webster
9	PF	Balkman	PF	Harrington	PF	Randolph
10	PF	Williams/She	C	Andersen	C	Pekovic
RESERVES
11	PG	Mason	SF	Brewer	PG	Telfair
12	PG	Rautins	C	Mozgov	C	Koufos
EXTRAS/OUTS
13	OG	Azubuike	PG	Carter	SF	Hayward
14			SF	Forbes	PF	Tolliver
15			C	Ely	C	Curry
OTHERS
16			2014	1ST Rd Draft Pick	PG	Rubio-?
17			?	2nd Rd Draft Pick
18			?	2nd Rd Draft Pick

then, it may well be the case that:

1. New York has obtained the best player involved in these trades, but may still have failed to appreciably advance their franchise, in pursuit of winning a League Championship;

2. Denver may have obtained as close to “fair value”, as possible, in exchange for their disgruntled former “star” player who did not wish to sign a contract extension with their team;

and,

3. Minnesota may have made out like bandits, by acquiring 2 solid assets for their franchise, in exchange for only 1 ”spare part” on their current roster.

Time will tell if this transaction actually marks the end of Donnie Walsh’s tenure with the Knicks or, if it ushers in an era of renewed long term prosperity for the once-proud franchise, under the continued direction of its aging native son. 

For those who might not be familiar yet with the good work being done by Jeff Fogle at hoopdata.com, these are the two specific comments which were left there, by yours truly, earlier this afternoon, in response to the following article:

——————————————————–

Did Rose expose a Spurs’ weakness?

That paints a pretty fair picture of the two teams I think. San Antonio has smarts, experience, and varied weaponry that thrive on both sides of the court. Chicago has energy that it channels into intense defense and offensive rebounding. But, to this point, their superstar point guard has only led them to league average in offensive efficiency. There’s time for Chicago to improve even more than they already have. There’s time for one of the older Spurs to run into the kind of injury they’ve been fortunate to avoid to this point in the season. Second halves aren’t guaranteed to follow seemingly ordained paths.

The Spurs must be glad they won’t have to worry about Derrick Rose any more (unless they actually do meet in the Finals). This was their final regular season meeting with the Bulls. Tonight’s performance does suggest possible playoff danger if they run into Oklahoma City and Russell Westbrook.

=============================================

Comment #1

Jeff,

 

With all due respect … IMO, Points Scored Per 100 Possessions is not the correct way to evaluate a team’s level of efficiency – either, offensively or defensively – in the game of basketball. The correct way to do this is by using Points Scored Per Possession, with:

 

Total Team Possessions = FGAs + TOs + FTAs*.44 [i.e. what most statisticians use to represent "Plays"]

 

as the proper definition of constitutes “An Accurate Estimate of Total Team Possessions Per Game.”

 

Although this makes for a less uniform set of game data, it is also a more accurate representation of what takes place in a specific basketball game compared to a less accurate stat like Points Scored Per 100 Possessions.

 

————————————-

 

Accordingly …

 

The Chicago Bulls are currently:

 

0.929, 17th in Points Scored Per Possession [PSPP]

0.879, 2nd in Opp Points Scored Per Possession [OPSPP]

+0.050, 6th in Points Scored Per Possession Differential [PSPP-Diff]

 

The San Antonio Spurs are currently:

 

0.982, 3rd in PSPP

0.906, 5th in OPSPP

+0.076, 3rd in PSPP-Diff

 

————————————-

 

In the game from Thursday night:

 

Chicago had 99 Possessions, and generated 109 points.

San Antonio had 96 Possessions, and generated 99 points.

 

Chicago’s PSPP was 1.103.

San Antonio’s PSPP was 1.029.

 

Chicago’s PSPP-Diff was +0.074 … which is +0.024 above their average.

San Antonio’s PSPP-Diff was -0.074 … which is -0.150 below their average.

 

————————————-

 

Given how Chicago and San Antonio have performed to this point this season, what should have been expected from them on Thursday night actually looks like this:

 

Chicago

106 Offensive Possessions [Average Per Game thru 54 games]

0.929 PSPP

105 Defensive Possessions [Average Per Game thru 54 games]

0.879 OPSPP

 

San Antonio

105 Offensive Possessions [Average Per Game thru 56 games]

0.982 PSPP

106 Defensive Possesions [Average Per Game thru 56 games]

0.906 OPSPP

 

Chicago, 97.3 points

San Antonio, 97.7 points

 

————————————-

 

What specific factors produced the final score of Thursday’s game?

 

San Antonio 99

Chicago 109

 

The key differences from the norm were:

 

i. Chicago’s ability to generate 3 more offensive possessions than San Antonio [i.e. Actual/99 to 96], instead of only 1 more offensive possession [i.e. Average/106 to 105];

 

ii. Chicago’s ability to limit San Antonio to only 96 offensive possessions, compared to the Spurs’ usual output of 105 possessions;

 

and,

 

iii. Chicago’s ability to increase their PSPP by +0.174 [i.e. from 0.929 to 1.103], while allowing their OPSPP to increase by only +0.150 [i.e. from 0.879 to 1.029];

 

… which was largely attributable to the “expanded role” that Derrick Rose took on, as a legitimate “scorer”, in this specific game for the Bulls:

 

Stat, Rose/Team [Rose % of Team] vs Rose Ave/Team Ave [Rose Ave % of Team Ave], Shift

 

PTS, 42/109 [38.5] vs 24.9/98.4 [25.3], Increase *

FGA, 28/80 [35.0] vs 20.2/80.9 [25.0], Increase *

FTA, 6/20 [30.0] vs 6.2/24.3 [24.3], Increase *

Reb, 5/41 [12.3] vs 4.4/44.0 [10.0], Increase *

Ast, 8/24 [33.3] vs 8.2/21.9 [37.4], Decrease

TO, 1/10 [10.0] vs 3.5/13.7 [25.5], Decrease  

 

Cheers

=============================================

Comment #2

FWIW … re: Did the Bulls expose a specific weakness of the Spurs?

There are very few Derrick Rose-type players in the NBA today and, although he is an exceptional talent, in his own right, Russell Westbrook is not one of them.

=============================================

Hopefully these two comments are still on display, if/when you are able to drop by for a visit at this site to check it out for yourself.

For those NBA observers with a keen interest in the statistical evaluation of all 30 teams, at the unofficial half-way point of the regular season schedule:

POINTS SCORED PER POSSESSION DIFFERENTIAL AND WIN PERCENTAGE, PRIOR TO THE ALL-STAR BREAK

Team

PS

Poss

PSPP

Rk

Opp PS

Opp Poss

OPSPP

Rk

PSPP-Diff

Rk

Win%

Rk

ATL

5322

5610.84

0.949

12