Archive for November, 2010

Best Rotation for Raptors to win as many games as possible, given recent injuries to Evans and Stojakovic

Tuesday, November 30th, 2010

Put aside for the moment whether or not the Raptors should actually be trying to win as many games as possible this season, given the unique opportunity they have to obtain one of the Top 3 Selections in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery … which, this specific year, will likely bring with it the chance to add a franchise-changing player like Harrison Barnes, or Kyrie Irving, or Jan Vesely, etc.

Instead, consider what the Raptors’ ”regular rotation” SHOULD BE right now, if the primary goal of the franchise is to win as many games as possible this season, in an effort to qualify for the playoffs for the first time in the last 3 years.

The team’s current roster includes 14 players:

POINT GUARD

#1. Jose Calderon

COMBO GUARD

#2. Jerryd Bayless and #3. Leandro Barbosa

OFF GUARDS

#4. Sonny Weems, and #5. DeMar DeRozan

SMALL FORWARDS

#6. Linas Kleiza, #7. Peja Stojakovic [injured], and #8. Julian Wright

POWER FORWARDS

#9. Reggie Evans [injured], #10. Amir Johnson, #11. Ed Davis [debut - TBD, after pre-season knee surgery], and #12. Joey Dorsey

CENTER

#13. Andrea Bargnani, and #14. Solomon Alabi 

A comparison between: [i] The Raptors Rotation vs Atlanta, and [ii] What the Raptors Rotation SHOULD BE vs Future Opponents would look like this:

RAPTORS ROTATION VS HAWKS

RAPTORS ROTATION VS FUTURE OPPONENTS

AREAS OF SUPERIORITY

POS.

PLAYER

ADV

PLAYER

POS.

STARTERS

OFF

DEF

REB

PG

Calderon

=

Calderon

PG

 

 

 

OG

Weems

à

DeRozan

OG

SF

DeRozan

à

Wright

SF

 

PF

Dorsey

à

Johnson

PF

 

C

Bargnani

=

Bargnani

C

 

 

 

 

0

 

+3

 

 

KEY SUBS

 

PG

Bayless

à

Barbosa

PG

 

 

OG

Barbosa

à

Weems

OG

 

SF/PF

Kleiza

=

Kleiza

SF

 

 

 

 

à

Davis

PF

 

PF/C

Johnson

ß

Alabi

C

 

 

 

 

+1

 

+3

 

 

RESERVES

 

SF

Wright

à

Bayless

PG/OG

 

 

 

à

Dorsey

PF/C

 

 

0

 

+2

 

 

EXTRAS/OUTS

 

PF/C

Davis

N/A

Stojakovic

SF/PF

 

 

 

SF/PF

Stojakovic

N/A

Evans

PF

 

 

 

PF

Evans

N/A

 

 

 

 

 

0

 

0

 

 

COACHING

 

 

Triano

=

Triano

 

 

 

0

 

0

 

 

OVERALL

 

 

+1

à

+5

 

 

Until Stojakovic and Evans are eventually able to return to the line-up, the Raptors would actually give themselves the best chance of winning games by taking advantage of:

- DeRozan’s size and athleticism at the OG position [relative to Weems] 

- Wright’s size and athleticism at the SF position [relative to DeRozan]

- Johnson’s increased agility and scoring ability at the PF position [relative to Dorsey]

- Barbosa’s speed in transition and his overall experience at the Back-up PG position [relative to Bayless]

- Weems’ size and athleticism at the Back-up OG position [relative to Barbosa]

- Davis’ size and athleticism at the Back-up PF position [relative to Kleiza]

- Bayless’ ability to score the ball at the Back-up OG/PG position [relative to Wright]

- Dorsey’s size and athleticism at the Back-up PF/C position [relative to an open roster spot]

and, in the process, diminishing the negative effects of the skill deficiencies of Andrea Bargnani [C] – who is now their best scorer – by focusing on their combined ability to Defend and Rebound at the other positions in a superior way to what they were ever able to do with Jarrett Jack [PG], Marcus Banks [PG] and David Andersen [C] on their roster. 

———————————–

PS. Since the belief of this corner is that it’s best for the Raptors to actually lose as many games as possible this season … in order to obtain the highest draft pick possible, this specific year … hopefully Jay Triano & Co. are never able to figure out for themselves the benefits of using a regular rotation like what’s been recommended here. :-)

Raptors lose Evans to a broken foot, back in hunt for Top 3 Draft Pick

Monday, November 29th, 2010

In Friday’s loss at Boston, the Raptors lost the services of Reggie Evans [PF] … their best rebounder, by far … for an extended period of time.

Then, in yesterday’s loss vs Atlanta, Peja Stojakovic – recently acquired via trade – was also sidelined with “soreness in his knee”, and unable to play.

Together with the fact that 1st-year players Ed Davis [PF] and Soloman Alabi [C] played their 2nd games with the Erie Bayhawks [i.e. the Raptors' D-League affiliate] yesterday, this meant Toronto took the floor against the Hawks with only 10 players in uniform.

Given the players on the Raptors’ roster right now:

TORONTO RAPTORS

                   ATLANTA HAWKS

Pos

PERSONNEL

ADV

PERSONNEL

Pos

STARTERS

PG

Calderon

=

Bibby

PG

OG

Weems

à

Johnson

OG

SF

DeRozan

à

Williams

SF

PF

Dorsey

àà

Smith

PF

C

Bargnani

à

Horford

C

 

0

 

 

+5

 

KEY SUBS

PG

Bayless

=

Teague

PG

OG

Barbosa

=

Crawford/Ja

OG

SF

Wright

à

Evans

SF

PF

Kleiza

=

Powell

PF

PF

Johnson

à

Pachulia

C

 

+2

 

 

+2

 

RESERVES/EXTRAS/OUTS

C

Alabi

N/A

Crawford

OG

SF

Stojakovic [inj-?]i

N/A

Sy

PG

PF

Evans [inj-?]

N/A

Thomas

OG

PF

Davis [inj-?]

N/A

Collins

PF

 

 

N/A

 

 

 

0

 

 

0

 

COACHING

HC

Triano

=

Drew

HC

 

0

 

 

0

 

OVERALL

 

+0

 

 

+7

 

the eventual outcome against Atlanta should not have come as a surprise at all.

At this specific juncture of the season, and with the following slate of games on the immediate horizon:

December

Opponent

Expected
Outcome

W-L
Rec

 Wed 01

 vs Washington

W

7-11

 Fri 03

L

7-12

 Sun 05 *

 vs New York

W

8-12

 Mon 06

 @ Indiana  

L

8-13

 Wed 08

 @ New York  

L

8-14

 Fri 10

 vs Denver

L

8-15

 Sat 11

 @ Detroit  

L

8-16

 Tue 14

 @ Charlotte  

L

8-17

 Wed 15

 vs Chicago

L

8-18

 Fri 17

 vs New Jersey

W

9-18

 Sun 19 *

 vs LA Lakers

L

9-19

 Wed 22

 vs Detroit

W

10-19

 Mon 27

 @ Memphis  

L

10-20

 Tue 28

 @ Dallas  

L

10-21

 Fri 31

 @ Houston  

L

10-22

Of far greater significance, perhaps, is the opportunity which is now presented to the Raptors … i.e. to benefit long term from this most “unfortunate” turn of events.

By resisting the urge to:

1. Make a subsequent roster move to replace Reggie Evans’ rebounding;

2. Use the remainder of their TPE [obtained from Miami in the Chris Bosh trade];

3. Fire their head coach, Jay Triano, as a scapegoat for this season’s poor W-L record;

4. Make a push for the No. 8 playoff seed in the Eastern Conference this year;

what the Raptors’ basketball brain-trust should do, instead, is simply:

i. Sit back and swallow the bitter pill which goes with having one of the weakest rosters in the entire NBA;

ii. Use Alabi and Davis as strictly part-time players in their regular rotation for the rest of the season [or, in Davis' case, sit him out for the whole year to fully recover from his torn meniscus injury, suffered in the pre-season];

and,

iii. Lose as many games, as possible, for the rest of this season, in an effort to secure the future rights to a Top 3 Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft;

By following this recipe, what the Raptors could well succeed in doing … if they play their cards properly! … is setting themselves up for an extended run in the upper portion of the Eastern Conference during the latter half of the next decade [i.e. 2015-2020] with a Core Group of Players that should/could look something like this:

[Temporary] Starting PG – Jose Calderon [who will eventually become the back-up]
Starting OG – DeMar DeRozan
Starting SF – Harrison Barnes [or, Jan Vesely]
Starting PF – Ed Davis
Starting C – Andrea Bargnani [or, the asset acquired in a future trade involving him]

Back-up PG – Jerryd Bayless [or, Kyrie Irving]
Back-up OG – Sonny Weems
Back-up SF – Linas Kleiza, or Julian Wright
Back-up PF – Amir Johnson
Back-up C – Solomon Alabi

Head Coach – TBD

in addition to the other assets that can also be obtained from the future acquisitions involving [i] the rest of the TPE, [ii] Reggie Evans, [iii] Leandro Barbosa and [iv] Peja Stojakovic.

As the great Branch Rickey first said, a good many years ago:

Luck [properly understood] is [most definitely] the residue of design.” 

———————————–

PS. OTOH … if your pro team sports organization is geared strictly towards the making of an annual ”bottom line” profit, in a safe and secure way, then, it really does not matter one iota just how many times you choose to look an actual gift horse in the mouth and, in the process, allow opportunity after opportunity … for greatness … to slip through your proverbial fingers. 

Why the Raptors are 10 point underdogs versus the Celtics tonight?

Friday, November 26th, 2010

Hmmm …

1. Toronto has just won 4 games in a row, one of which was a final minute victory over an under-manned Boston team this past Sunday that included several highly questionable ”calls” and “no calls” made by the game officials in favour of the Raptors coming down-the-stretch:

Wed Nov 24 vs Philadelphia, W, 106-90
Sun Nov 21 vs Boston, W, 102-101
Fri Nov 19 vs Houston, W, 106-96
Wed Nov 17 @ PHILADELPHIA, W, 94-86

2. After losing to Toronto, Boston has won its next 2 games:

Mon Nov 23 vs Atlanta, 99-76
Wed Nov 24 vs New Jersey, 89-83

3. While Toronto has played without Ed Davis [PF, No. 13 Selection/2010 NBA Draft] in its line-up, to this point of the season, Boston is once again expected to be without as many as 4 of their regular rotation players for this evening’s contest:

Rajon Rondo, PG [starter/injured]
Jermaine O’Neal, C [back-up/injured]
Delonte West, OG [back-up/injured], and
Kendrick Perkins, C [starter/injured]

4. While Boston [11-4] is 1st in the Atlantic Division and 1st, overall, in the Eastern Conference Standings; Toronto [6-9] is 3rd in the Atlantic Division and 9th, overall, in the conference.

5. Boston’s average Points Scored [PS] and Points Allowed [PA] at home this year are:

BOS: PS – 99.0; PA – 91.4

6. Toronto’s average PS and PA on the road are:

Tor: PS – 100.1; PA – 106.4

7. A projection of the Expected Score for this game, based on the score results thus far for both teams, without accounting for the statistical home-court advantage [SHCA], yields the following numbers:

Tor, 96.0 [Tor PS-Away + BOS PA-Home]  
BOS, 103.25 [BOS PS-Home + Tor PA-Away]

8. A projection of the Expected Points Differential for this game, with the SHCA included, yields the following number:

METHOD A

103.25 – 96.0 + 2.33 [SHCA] = 9.58 [in favour of Boston] 

METHOD B

95.72 – 87.69 +2.33 [SHCA] = 10.36 [in favour of Boston]

9. If the line-ups for these two teams actually look this:

TORONTO RAPTORS

                   BOSTON CELTICS

Pos

PERSONNEL

ADV

PERSONNEL

Pos

STARTERS

PG

Calderon

=

Robinson

PG

OG

Weems

à

Allen

OG

SF

DeRozan

à

Pierce

SF

PF

Evans

à

Garnett

PF

C

Bargnani

=

O’Neal/S

C

 

0

 

 

+3

 

KEY SUBS

PG

Bayless

ß

Bradley

PG

OG

Barbosa

ß

Wafer

OG

SF

Kleiza

=

Daniels

SF

PF

Johnson

à

Davis

PF

PF

Dorsey

à

Erden

C

 

+2

 

 

+2

 

RESERVES/EXTRAS/OUTS

SF

Stojakovic

N/A

Harangody

OG

SF

Wright

N/A

Rondo [inj-?]

PG

PF

Davis [inj-?]

N/A

O’Neal/J [inj-?]

OG

C

Alabi

N/A

West [inj]

PF

 

 

N/A

Perkins [inj]

C

 

0

 

 

0

 

COACHING

HC

Triano

àà

Rivers

HC

 

0

 

 

+2

 

OVERALL

 

+2

 

 

+6

 

for this specific game, the key questions then become:

i. How much of an “overall effect” will the absence of these 4 players have on the Celtics’ performance?

ii. To what extent will the Celtics actually be “motivated” to avenge their recent loss at Toronto?

———————————–

Published Wagering Line

Opened: BOSTON -10/-105

Current: BOSTON -10/+100 [as of 11:30 AM this morning]

———————————–

KSS PROGNOSTICATION

When a published wagering line in the NBA looks too good to be true, in favour of the team you think is actually being under-rated in a specific situation – i.e. in this case, this thinking applies to the Raptors – then, it is almost always a good thing to stay away from that game, completely, or to make your play on the opposite side.

BOSTON -9.5/-110

[PLEASE NOTE: The monitored wagering line for this event has now been changed from BOS -10/+100.] 

Raptors win 4th in a row … pluses and minuses moving forward

Thursday, November 25th, 2010

Last night’s action in the NBA included the Raptors winning their 4th consecutive game.

Philadelphia 76ers 90
TORONTO Raptors 106
Complete Game Summary

PLUSES AND MINUSES, BASED ON GAME 1 & 2 FOR ’NEW EDITION‘ RAPTORS 

Pluses

#1. Jose Calderon [6-3, 210], as the starting PG for 30+ MPG, is going to pay considerable dividends for the Raptors, in terms of allowing each of their other offensively-focused players to flourish while still performing within the structure of their overall team. This will be a big step forward in the continued development of Andrea Bargnani, DeMar DeRozan and Sonny Weems.

#2. As a bigger PG with decent quickness, a good overall feel for the game and excellent command of his teammates, Jose Calderon should now be able to remain healthy for the balance of this season and enjoy a banner year when it comes to specific performance categories like Assists, Assists:Turnovers, 3PT %, FG %, eFG %, FT % and Rebs.  

#3. Jerryd Bayless [6-3, 200] has the ability to become a solid all-around PG, in the NBA, either as a future “starter” for a playoff team, or a ”key sub” coming off the bench.

#4. Andrea Bargnani is becoming increasingly more comfortable in his role with this specific edition of the team, as the primary scorer, in spite of his short-comings defensively and as a rebounder.

#5. Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson are doing yeomen’s work, as the principal rebounders, in conjunction with the more athletic wing players on the squad.

#6. Peja Stojakovic [6-9, 229] has the ability to provide high calibre 3PT-shooting for this specific edition of the team, if he is going to be used as a “stretch-4″ … which is how he was used last night against Philadelphia.

#7. When Ed Davis [6-10, 215] is eventually inserted into the regular rotation … in all likelihood, at the Center position, in arrears of Bargnani … he is also going to make a positive contribution, overall … despite his lack of NBA inexperience … with his shot-blocking, rebounding and interior/mid-range scoring ability which usually translate well when high end players make the shift from college to pro basketball.

Minuses

#1. If you look at today’s NBA Standings

What you should be able to see is that there are 5 solid teams at the top end of the Eastern Conference, all of which will most likely remain in those same positions for the balance of this season … i.e. Boston, Orlando, Miami, Atlanta and Chicago … give or take a few minor shifts amongst their own ranks.

Below this 1st Tier …

There are 2 more teams that are fairly well positioned to also make the playoffs this season … i.e. Indiana and New York … with a number of highly talented individual players on each squad who are capable of playing at a very high level over the next few seasons … e.g. Granger, Dunleavy, Hibbert, Collison, Hansbrough, Jones/S and George for the Pacers; and, Stoudemire, Gallinari, Chandler, Fields, Turiaf and Randolph for the Knicks.

Below this 2nd Tier …

There is a gaggle of other teams that will probably spend the entire season jockeying back-and-forth with one another, in an effort to:

i. Earn the No. 8 seed in the playoffs … and the opportunity to get eliminated in the 1st Round;

or,

ii. Fill out non-playoff position Nos. 9-10-11-12 and 13,

including: Cleveland, Toronto, Milwaukee, New Jersey and Detroit.

Below this 3rd Tier …

There are two additional teams that – in all likelihood - are destined to, either:

i. Fill out non-playoff position No.s 14 and 15, at the bottom of the conference … with the likely reward of obtaining a Top 3 Selection in the NBA’s 2011 Draft Lottery;

or,

ii. Improve slightly over the course of the season and, in the process, move up to the 3rd Tier … thereby, also losing out on the reward of obtaining a Top 3 Selection in the NBA’s 2011 Draft Lottery. 

Unfortunately …

If you look at the list of teams that have actually won the NBA Championship through the years …. what you should also be able to see is that very few, if any, of those same teams ever spent a series of years toiling in the middle sections of their respective conferences, neither “bad enough” to assemble a collection of truly high end players, via the Draft – with at least 1, 2 or 3 authentic All-Stars included in the mix - nor “good enough” to be able to attract a similar collection of high end players via unrestricted free agency and trades.

——————————————–

Those who think that this new edition of the Raptors is somehow less talented than the previous version, which played the first 14 games of the season, are simply mis-guided and, in general, over-reliant on a compilation of “game stat averages” … which are relatively meaningless, in the grand scheme of things … when it comes to [A] properly evaluating teams, players, coaches and executives [etc.] in the NBA environment and [B] interpreting accurately how the game actually works at the highest level of competition.

If this edition of the Raptors actually finishes in the No. 14 or No. 15 position in the East this year, it will only be because Bryan Colangelo does something purposefully designed to make it so, between now and the end of the season, or because Jay Triano is simply a poor NBA head coach. 

Toronto Raptors, Game 15

Wednesday, November 24th, 2010

An unfortunate aspect of this evening’s game between the Raptors and the 76ers is the likelihood of Toronto not actually using their two newly acquired players [i.e. Jerryd Bayless/PG-OG and Peja Stojakovic/SF] in the proper way to maximize their effectiveness.

Despite the belief of this corner that this new edition of the Raptors will eventually demonstrate a slightly elevated level of NBA talent, in comparison with the version which existed prior to the arrivals of Bayless and Stojakovic, this does not mean that this will be on display this evening, based on how Jay Triano & Co. will decide to use each of the players on the Raptors’ roster at the moment.

If the respective line-ups for these two teams do actually end up looking like this:

TORONTO RAPTORS

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

Pos

PERSONNEL

ADV

PERSONNEL

Pos

STARTERS

PG

Calderon

ß

Holiday

PG

OG

Weems

=

Turner

OG

SF

DeRozan

à

Iguodala

SF

PF

Evans

à

Brand

PF

C

Bargnani

ß

Hawes

C

 

+2

 

 

+2

 

KEY SUBS

PG

Bayless

=

Williams

PG

OG

Barbosa

=

Nocioni

SF

SF

Kleiza

à

Young

SF

PF

Johnson

=

Songaila

PF

PF

Dorsey

à

Speights

C

 

0

 

 

+2

 

RESERVES/EXTRAS/OUTS

SF

Stojakovic

N/A

Meeks

OG

SF

Wright

N/A

Kapono

SF

PF

Davis [inj-?]

N/A

Brackins

PF

C

Alabi

N/A

Battie

C

 

 

N/A

 

 

 

0

 

 

0

 

COACHING

HC

Triano

à

Collins

HC

 

0

 

 

+1

 

OVERALL

 

+2

 

 

+3

 

for this evening’s tilt, then, you should know that Toronto is actually going to be at a slight disadvantage when it comes to accounting for the individual match-ups.

———————————–

Published Wagering Line

Opening: TORONTO -5.5/-103

[pending the uncertain status of the Raptors newly acquired players]

Current: TORONTO -5.5/-109

———————————–

Given that the 76ers are also playing the 2nd bill of a back-to-back … after dropping an almost sure W in the closing seconds of last night’s nightmare finish vs Washington [in OT], i.e.

… it will be a good idea to just set back and enjoy what should prove to be yet another close game at the ACC.

KSS Prognostication

Too close to call with any degree of certitude. 

Raptors’ prime objective behind acquisitions of Stojakovic and Bayless

Wednesday, November 24th, 2010

Comment contributor Mike D has posited an interesting question, in response to yesterday’s blog entry about whether or not the Raptors have actually upgraded the NBA talent level on their current roster:

What was Bryan Colangelo’s primary objective when he traded Jarrett Jack [PG/OG], David Andersen [C] and Marcus Banks [PG] to New Orleans, in exchange for Peja Stojakovic [SF/OG] and Jerryd Bayless [PG/OG]?

Either:

PROPOSITION A – To create increased financial flexibility for the team, while moving forward, in order to allow the younger players on the roster to develop further and improve with an eye fixed firmly on the future prospects for major on-court success, even if it means fielding a lesser talented team this season which will likely finish lower in the Eastern Conference standings than it would have otherwise. Such a “lesser-talented” team would, therefore, be more likely to secure the future rights to a high [i.e. Top 3 Selection] draft pick in the NBA’s 2011 Lottery.

or,

PROPOSITION B – To create a better team for this season with an upgraded level of NBA talent that is actually more competitive with the other middle echelon teams in the Eastern Conference and, quite possibly, more capable of qualifying for one of the bottom 3 seeds in the playoffs [i.e. No. 6, 7 or 8] – if this new edition performs up to its maximum capacity - while still providing a high degree of future financial flexibility for MLSE, should this squad actually fail to accomplish this modest on-court task. Such a “more-talented” team would, therefore, be less likely to secure the future rights to a high [i.e. Top 3 Selection] draft pick in the NBA’s 2011 Lottery.

As was indicated in yesterday’s blog entry, the belief of this corner is that PROPOSITION B was most likely at the root of Bryan Colangelo’s motivation to complete these recent trades for the Raptors.

What tangible evidence [or proof] might possibly exist in support of this specific notion?

If the Raptors, subsequently, decide to:

1. Add a veteran Center to their roster later on this season … e.g. someone like Erick Dampier, who had been available, as an unrestricted free agent until yesterday, before signing with the Miami Heat … either, via trade or free agency;

2. Use Leandro Barbosa as their primary back-up PG, behind Jose Calderon … and, ahead of Jerryd Bayless;

3. Use Peja Stojakovic as their primary perimeter shooter coming off the bench at the wing position … in conjunction with their other younger wing players, i.e. Sonny Weems, DeMar DeRozan, Linas Kleiza, Julian Wright and, now, Jerryd Bayless, rather than exclusively in arrears of them;

and,

4. Use Ed Davis [PF/C] for major minutes off the bench;

then, it will be a solid indication that PROPOSITION B may well have been the prime motivation for Bryan Colangelo, since this new edition of the Raptors would then be more likely to win a higher percentage of their remaining games this season, than they would have been if:

i. These two trades were never made, in the first place;

and/or,

ii. A. Jerryd Bayless is used as their primary back-up PG, instead of Leandro Barbosa;

ii. B. Peja Stojakovic is used only as a last resort, coming deep off their bench behind all of their younger wing players;

ii. C. Ed Davis [PF, 1st-yr] is held out of the team’s line-up for the balance of the 2010-2011 season, in order to completely rehabilitate his torn meniscus injury suffered during the pre-season;

and,

ii. D. No veteran Center is added to the roster.

In addition to what’s been written here the last two days … concerning these two trades by the Raptors … these are two specific comments which were left by yours truly last night at two other Raptors-related blogs:

===========================

[at Tim W's "The Picket Fence"]

Using Jose Calderon as the starting PG [30+ MPG] for the Raptors, instantaneously makes them a better team than they were with Jarrett Jack in that same role with Calderon coming off the bench for only 20+ MPG.

As does using Barbosa as the primary back-up PG, in arrears of Calderon.

If the Raptors decide to use Bayless as their primary back-up PG, in arrears of Calderon … rather than Barbosa … then, the current Raptors team will actually be worse off than they were when Jack was “the starter” and Calderon his primary “back-up”.

How Bayless actually gets used by the Raptors for the rest of this season will tell a great deal about the intent of Bryan Colangelo when these two trades were made.

===========================

[at Devin Dignam's "Nbeh?"]

The Raptors W-L Record/Win% prior to completing these two trades was 4-9/.308.

It will now be very interesting to see how these numbers will compare to their W-L Record/Win% for the remainder of the season.

In contrast to what it says here, IMO, these two trades will actually increase the likelihood of the Raptors failing to finish in one of the bottom two positions in the Eastern Conference standings this season … which, in turn, will mean that they will not be picking in one of the top three positions in the 2011 NBA Draft, when franchise-changing players like Harrison Barnes [SF] and, possibly, Kyrie Irving [PG] are scheduled to be available.

When it comes to projecting forward … as opposed to looking backwards … it’s amazing just how mis-guided some so-called ‘stats-based’ basketball analyses can actually turn out to be.

===========================

In summary …

If PROPOSITION A is actually correct, what you should expect to see from the Raptors the rest of this season is:

- Jerryd Bayless being used as their primary back-up PG, not Leandro Barbosa
- Peja Stojakovic not being used very much, if at all
- Ed Davis not being used a significant number of minutes
- No veteran back-up Center being added to the roster AND
- The team winning LESS-THAN .308 of its remaining games this year … since Jerryd Bayless and Peja Stojakovic are inferior players compared to Jarrett Jack, David Andersen and Marcus Banks. 

However, if PROPOSITION B is actually correct, what you should expect to see from the Raptors is:

- Leandro Barbosa being used as their primary back-up PG, not Jerryd Bayless
- Peja Stojakovic being used quite a bit, as their best 3PT-shooter
- Ed Davis being used a significant number of minutes, as their best interior shot-blocker and post scorer 
- A veteran back-up Center being added to the roster AND
- The team winning MORE-THAN .308 of its remaining games this year … since:

I. Jose Calderon is a more effective Starting PG - who makes each of his teammates into more effective players at the offensive end of the floor - compared to Jarrett Jack;

II. Leandro Barbosa is a more effective back-up PG – who makes each of his teammates into more effective players at the offensive end of the floor – compared to Jerryd Bayless [who has now been traded 3 times, since entering the NBA in the 2008 NBA Draft, by 3 different organizations - i.e. Indiana, Portland and New Orleans - each of which was looking to fill a void at the PG position, when it first acquired him, and is now in a better position to succeed than Toronto];

III. Peja Stojakovic is a more effective 3PT-shooter than Jarrett Jack, David Andersen and Marcus Banks;

and,

IV. Ed Davis is a more effective interior shot-blocker, and post scorer, than David Andersen.

———————-

It is also interesting to note that one consistent aspect of Bryan Colangelo’s tenure with the Raptors has been his reluctance to make a full commitment to the building-up this franchise from “square one”, gradually over a number of years. Instead, what he has shown is his interest in always “hedging his bets”, in the name of creating/maintaining “increased financial flexibility” for MLSE going forward. 

Defining properly ‘What it means’ to become ‘a Champion’

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

From the words of Kobe Bean Bryant, at a point of maturation in his early 30′s:

———————————–

Kobe still tough, with assists from the greats

Ask him what he embraces in his early 30s that he never understood in his 20s, and there’s no hesitation: It’s what everyone insisted he had been a failure with, a perception that he has transformed with two post-Shaquille O’Neal championships.

“How to truly make players better, what that really means,” he said. “It’s not just passing to your guys and getting them shots. It’s not getting this or that many players into double figures. That’s bull[expletive]. That’s not how you win championships. You’ve got to change the culture of your team – that’s how you truly make guys better. In a way, you have to help them to get the same DNA that you have, the same focus you have, maybe even close to the same drive. That’s how you make guys better.

“I’ve never understood this stuff, where a star player sits out and a team goes into the tank. Well, they need him because he makes them better. Well, if he’s making them better, they should be able to survive without him. That’s how you lead your guys. You’ve got to be able to make guys suffice on their own, without you. If you’re there all the time and they take you away, they shouldn’t need a respirator.

“Once I understood all that, I looked at things completely different. I took my hands off. I didn’t try to control them. I let them make decisions, make their own [expletive]-ups and I was there to try and help them through it.”

As much as anyone, Russell led Bryant to those epiphanies.

———————————–

come the THE most important words you will read today.

Enjoy! 

How recent Raptors’ acquisitions have upgraded talent level on this year’s team

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

In the comments section of yesterday’s blog entry, concerning the state of the Raptors, more than one contributor indicated their belief that the Raptors’ recent transactions may have actually “weakened” their roster for the current season, and asked if the specific take of this corner could be explained in further detail.

To wit:

—————————————

The two trades which the Raptors completed over the weekend have improved their functional NBA talent level in the following ways:

OPTION I

RAPTORS COMPARATIVE ROSTER EVALUATION

#

POS

FORMER

ADV

CURRENT

POS

RATIONALE

STARTERS

1

PG

Jack

à

Calderon

PG

Jose is a superior facilitator who makes his teammates better as efficient offensive players.

2

OG

Weems

à

Weems

OG

Sonny becomes a better player with increased jump-shot opportunities.

3

SF

DeRozan

à

DeRozan

SF

DeMar becomes a better player with an increased role as a focal point of the offense.

4

PF

Evans

à

Evans

PF

Improves his rebounding when he knows exactly when shots will be taken and by which specific players.

5

C

Bargnani

à

Bargnani

C

Becomes THE focal point of the offense.

 

 

0

 

+5

 

 

KEY SUBS

6

PG

Calderon

à

Barbosa

PG

Changes the tempo dramatically when inserted as the back-up PG off the bench with the 2nd unit.

7

OG

Barbosa

à

Stojakovic

OG

Adds a far superior 3PT-shooter compared to anyone on the roster before.

8

SF

Kleiza

à

Kleiza

SF

Increased opportunities to score when playing with Barbosa as the PG.

9

PF

Johnson

à

Johnson

PF

Increased opportunities to rebound when playing beside Barbosa as the PG.

10

C

Andersen

à

Dorsey

PF

A far superior rebounder in comparison with Andersen. Increased level of physicality.

 

 

0

 

+5

 

 

RESERVES

11

SF

Wright

à

Bayless

PG

A far superior offensive weapon coming off the bench in specific situations.

12

PF

Dorsey

=

Wright

SF

Not an upgrade.

 

 

0

 

+1

 

 

EXTRAS/OUTS

13

PG

Banks

àà

Davis

PF

A far superior level of first-class NBA talent.

14

PF

Davis

ß

Alabi

C

A substantial talent downgrade.

15

C

Alabi

à

Open

?

A vacant roster spot to be used to fill a current void in the line-up, preferably, at the back-up C position.

 

 

+1

 

+3

 

 

COACHING

16

HC

Jay Triano

à

Jay Triano

HC

Can improve significantly with the above changes in player personnel.

 

 

0

 

+1

 

 

OVERALL

Tot

 

+1

 

+15

 

Although none of the individual changes above are MAJOR, in and of themselves; collectively, they combine to substantially improve the functional NBA talent level of the current team.

OPTION II

RAPTORS COMPARATIVE ROSTER EVALUATION

#

POS

FORMER

ADV

CURRENT

WITH DAMPIER ADDED

POS

RATIONALE

STARTERS

1

PG

Jack

à

Calderon

PG

Jose is a superior facilitator who makes his teammates better as efficient offensive players.

2

OG

Weems

à

Weems

OG

Sonny becomes a better player with increased jump-shot opportunities.

3

SF

DeRozan

à

DeRozan

SF

DeMar becomes a better player with an increased role as a focal point of the offense.

4

PF

Evans

à

Evans

PF

Improves his rebounding when he knows exactly when shots will be taken and by which specific players.

5

C

Bargnani

à

Bargnani

C

Becomes THE focal point of the offense.

 

 

0

 

+5

 

 

KEY SUBS

6

PG

Calderon

à

Barbosa

PG

Changes the tempo dramatically when inserted as the back-up PG off the bench with the 2nd unit.

7

OG

Barbosa

à

Stojakovic

OG

Adds a far superior 3PT-shooter compared to anyone on the roster before.

8

SF

Kleiza

à

Kleiza

SF

Increased opportunities to score when playing with Barbosa as the PG.

9

PF

Johnson

à

Johnson

PF

Increased opportunities to rebound when playing beside Barbosa as the PG.

10

C

Andersen

àà

Dampier

C

A far superior rebounder in comparison with Andersen. Increased level of physicality.

 

 

0

 

+6

 

 

RESERVES

11

SF

Wright

à

Bayless

PG

A far superior offensive weapon coming off the bench in specific situations.

12

PF

Dorsey

=

Wright

SF

Not an upgrade.

 

 

0

 

+1

 

 

EXTRAS/OUTS

13

PG

Banks

àà

Davis

PF

A far superior level of first-class NBA talent.

14

PF

Davis

ß

Alabi

C

A substantial talent downgrade.

15

C

Alabi

à

Dorsey

PF

A superior player at this stage of his pro career.

 

 

+1

 

+3

 

 

COACHING

16

HC

Jay Triano

à

Jay Triano

HC

Can improve significantly with the above changes in player personnel.

 

 

0

 

+1

 

 

OVERALL

Tot

 

+1

 

+16

 

Although none of the individual changes above are MAJOR, in and of themselves; collectively, they combine to substantially improve the functional NBA talent level of the current team.

These improvements are NOT enough to allow the team to move up into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference.

What they ARE, however, are the type of improvements which will:

i. Make this year’s team much more competitive this season with the other teams in the East that are in the fight for the final 3 playoff positions [i.e. No. 6-8], which include Milwaukee, Indiana, New York, Charlotte, Detroit, Cleveland and New Jersey;

ii. Increase the likelihood of the Raptors using the remainder of their TPE to upgrade their current roster EVEN FURTHER, as the season unfolds, in an effort to make the playoffs THIS YEAR;

iii. See the Raptors insert Ed Davis/PF in their line-up THIS SEASON, in the aftermath of suffering a torn meniscus injury in the pre-season, instead of having him sit out the ENTIRE 2010-2011 campaign, in a similar way to what Blake Griffin/PF did last year with the LA Clippers … which, then, allowed the Clippers to add a 2nd standout player to their team this past summer, in the form of Al-Farouq Aminu [SF], from the 2010 NBA Draft Lottery.

and,

iv. Prevent the Raptors from finishing in one of the bottom two positions in the Eastern Conference this season and, thus, eliminate their opportunity to obtain a franchise-changing player like Harrison Barnes/SF [or, perhaps, Kyrie Irving/PG].

———————————–

PS. Raptors fans should not believe the hogwash prolifigated today by a number of so-called “stats-based basketball analysts” who espouse a mis-directed philosophy which views a “basketball player” as a “simple basketball player”, regardless of who his/her teammates are and which coach s/he actually has the opportunity to play, and learn, under.

Raptors say, ‘Good-bye,’ to legit shot at Harrison Barnes

Monday, November 22nd, 2010

When Toronto’s basketball brain-trust made the decision to complete the two trades which they made this past weekend that obtained the following 2 players:

Jerryd Bayless [PG/OG] and Peja Stojakovic [SF]

in exchange for the following 3 players:

Jarrett Jack [PG/OG], David Andersen [C] and Marcus Banks [PG]

it accomplished several inter-related things:

1. Opened up a roster spot that will probably be used to sign Erick Dampier [C];

2. Solidified Jose Calderon’s role with this year’s squad, as the Starting PG;

3. Opened up increased playing time for the No. 9 [overall] Selection from the 2010 NBA Draft – i.e. Ed Davis [PF-C] - who is due to re-join their active roster shortly after completing his rehabilitation assignment to the D-League;

4. Improved their chances of competing for a lower tier playoff spot in the Eastern Conference [i.e. No. 6, No. 7 and No. 8] this season;

5. Reduced their chances of finishing in the basement of the Eastern Conference this season;

and,

6. Effectively eliminated their opportunity to obtain Harrison Barnes [G/F, 6-8, 210], as a franchise-changing player who will be available this summer … as a likely Top 3 Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery.

———————————–

This is what the NBA Standings look like today, in the aftermath of yesterday’s thrilling victory by the Raptors [5-9/.357, T-12th] over the visiting Celtics [9-4/.692, 2nd];

and, this – i.e. please click on the link - is a comparative evaluation of the rosters for the different teams in the East that should now be able to effectively compete for the last 3 playoff spots this year, as the regular season continues to unfold.

Where the Raptors once had a legitimate chance to obtain a dominant player in next summer’s NBA Draft Lottery, today, this is no longer the case.

Unfortunately …

Personnel moves like these are yet more instances of this franchise opting for a “short term” boost in on-court performance with increased financial flexibility, rather than following a detailed, costly and highly integrated “long term” plan which is designed to gradually improve the organization over a period of years, while also increasing their opportunity to achieve major success, as one of the authentic dominant teams in the NBA.

———————————–

Update:

Please see this specific blog entry - from Tuesday, November 24, 2010 - for a more expansive version of why these two trades from this past weekend have improved the NBA talent level on the Raptors’ current – and future – roster this season. 

Of KD, White Chocolate, Pip and Master T

Friday, November 19th, 2010

For the benefit of regular readers …

———————————————-

These two separate video clips, courtesy of Kelly Dwyer’s BDL for today.

For KD, at least, they are not tied together in any way, shape or form.

This is not the case for yours truly, however. :-)

One clip demonstrates clearly that anyone in this world who really, really, really wants to do so … more than anything else in life … can, in fact, turn themself into a gifted offensively-focused basketball player, on the back of hours upon hours of hard work and ceaseless dedication to developing the most overt skills associated with the individual aspects of the game, i.e. shooting, dribbling and passing.

The other clip, however, demonstrates something quite different … in both of its two parts.

i.e. In order to be considered an All-Time Great at any one thing in this world, it takes a good deal more than simple hard work and dedication to develop the complete package required to become a virtuoso performer, one who is talented and versatile enough to become outstandingly proficient in every different aspect of that single life-pursuit.

You can decide for yourself which type of “artistry” is the favourite of yours truly.

vs

Much R.E.S.P.E.C.T. to all of those who are able to make their personal dreams come true in this life, regardless into which specific category they might hapen to fit.

——————————-

PS. Btw … It’s been a good many years since these ears have been fortunate enough to hear the anti-melodious name of Grandmaster “Monk” raised adroitly within the context of Hoop. Kudos, galore, to KD for turning this delightful trick, on a beautiful friday afternoon in the fall!