khandor's sports blog

Toronto Raptors [32-32] 112
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS [18-47] 124
Complete Game Info

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QUESTION

How exactly did Toronto manage to lose this game to Golden State?

ANSWER

When you look at the boxscore for this game:

——————————

Toronto Raptors
Starters		Min	FG	3Pt	FT	+/-	Off	Reb	Ast	TO	Stl	BS	BA	PF	Pts
D. DeRozan	G	26:04	8-11	0-0	2-3	-6	0	2	0	2	1	0	1	4	18
J. Jack	G	17:12	3-7	1-1	0-0	-19	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	2	7
A. Bargnani	C	39:20	3-6	0-1	5-6	-7	1	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	11
C. Bosh	F	36:03	8-13	0-0	8-10	-15	1	11	5	6	0	1	0	2	24
H. Turkoglu	F	29:21	2-6	0-1	0-0	-2	1	6	8	1	0	2	0	2	4
Bench		Min	FG	3Pt	FT	+/-	Off	Reb	Ast	TO	Stl	BS	BA	PF	Pts
J. Calderon		32:00	8-12	7-8	1-1	+7	0	1	12	1	0	0	0	1	24
S. Weems		21:52	5-10	0-1	0-0	-5	2	4	1	2	0	0	0	3	10
A. Johnson		20:37	6-7	0-0	2-3	-2	1	6	0	1	2	3	0	5	14
A. Wright		11:00	0-2	0-2	0-0	-10	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
M. Belinelli		6:31	0-2	0-2	0-0	-1	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0
M. Banks		DNP – Coach’s Decision
R. Evans		DNP – Coach’s Decision
R. Nesterovic		DNP – Coach’s Decision
P. O’Bryant		DNP – Coach’s Decision
Totals			43-76	8-16	18-23		7	39	31	17	5	6	1	23	112
Percentages:			.566	.500	.783		Team Rebounds: 6

 

 

Golden State Warriors
Starters		Min	FG	3Pt	FT	+/-	Off	Reb	Ast	TO	Stl	BS	BA	PF	Pts
M. Ellis	G	44:58	12-22	5-7	2-3	+14	0	4	2	3	2	0	0	3	31
S. Curry	G	42:21	13-21	5-8	4-4	+6	2	6	10	2	4	1	0	1	35
A. Tolliver	C	41:16	2-12	0-2	0-0	+21	5	11	2	1	3	0	0	5	4
C. Maggette	F	36:54	8-15	0-1	4-4	+8	1	1	3	1	0	0	2	4	20
A. Morrow	F	24:13	4-10	3-6	0-2	+5	2	4	1	1	0	0	2	0	11
Bench		Min	FG	3Pt	FT	+/-	Off	Reb	Ast	TO	Stl	BS	BA	PF	Pts
R. Williams		21:19	3-6	2-2	4-4	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	12
C. Hunter		15:14	2-5	0-0	0-0	+5	6	8	2	1	1	0	2	2	4
C.J. Watson		13:45	1-4	1-1	4-5	+1	1	6	1	1	1	0	0	1	7
K. Azubuike		DNP – Coach’s Decision
R. Bell		DNP – Coach’s Decision
A. Biedrins		DNP – Coach’s Decision
D. George		DNP – Coach’s Decision
V. Radmanovic		DNP – Coach’s Decision
A. Randolph		DNP – Coach’s Decision
R. Turiaf		DNP – Coach’s Decision
B. Wright		DNP – Coach’s Decision
Totals			45-95	16-27	18-22		18	42	22	11	11	1	6	16	124
Percentages:			.474	.593	.818		Team Rebounds: 5

——————————

and the Plus/Minus [+/-] per Minute Played [MP]

PLAYER	+/-	MP	+/- per MP
STARTERS
Jarrett Jack	-19	17	-1.12
DeMar DeRozan	-6	26	-0.23
Hedo Turkoglu	-2	29	-0.07
Chris Bosh	-13	36	-0.36
Andrea Bargnani	-7	39	-0.18
KEY SUBS
Jose Calderon	+7	32	+0.22
Sonny Weems	-5	22	-0.23
Amir Johnson	-4	21	-0.19
RESERVES
Marco Belinelli	-1	07	-0.14
Antoine Wright	-10	11	-0.91

——————————

you should be able to see that only 1 Raptor player performed in a satisfactory way [i.e. Green Shade above], while 2 others put in horrific performances [i.e. Red Shade above].

When you then look at the Substitution Chart [see below]:

TIME	TEAM	PG	OG	SF	PF	C	START	END		DIFF	DUR
1st Q	Tor	Jack	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	00	18		+1	7:00
12:00	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Morrow	Maggette	Tolliver	00	17		-1
05:00		Time-out:	Regular	GSW	Tor 17	GSW 17
	Tor	Jack	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Johnson	Bargnani	18		23	-1	2:24
05:00	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Morrow	Maggette	Tolliver	17		23	+1
02:36		Time-out:	Regular	Tor	Tor 22	GSW 23
	Tor	Calderon	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Johnson	Bargnani	23		35	+10	2:32
02:36	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Morrow	Williams	Maggette	23		25	-10
	Tor	Calderon	DeRozan	Wright	Johnson	Bargnani	35		35	0	0:04
0:04.7	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Morrow	Williams	Maggette	25		25	0
2nd Q	Tor	Calderon	Weems	Wright	Johnson	Bosh	35		41	-1	2:15
12:00	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Williams	Maggette	Tolliver	25		32	+1
10:21		Time-out:	Short	GSW	Tor 39	GSW 27	**		CM	Inj.
	Tor	Calderon	Weems	Wright	Johnson	Bosh	41		42	-1	1:04
09:45	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Williams	Tolliver	Hunter	32		34	+1
08:41		Time-out:	Official		Tor 42	GSW 34
	Tor	Calderon	Weems	Wright	Johnson	Bosh	42		42	-3	0:41
08:41	GSW	Watson	Ellis	Williams	Tolliver	Hunter	34		37	+3
	Tor	Calderon	Weems	Wright	Bosh	Bargnani	42		42	0	0:17
08:00	GSW	Watson	Ellis	Williams	Tolliver	Hunter	37		37	0
	Tor	Calderon	Belinelli	Wright	Bosh	Bargnani	42		42	-5	1:09
07:43	GSW	Watson	Ellis	Williams	Tolliver	Hunter	37		42	+5
06:34		Time-out:	Regular	Tor	Tor 42	GSW 42
	Tor	Calderon	Belinelli	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	42		50	+1	3:32
06:34	GSW	Watson	Ellis	Williams	Tolliver	Hunter	42		49	-1
	Tor	Calderon	Belinelli	Turkoglu	Johnson	Bargnani	50		51	-1	0:17
03:02	GSW	Watson	Curry	Williams	Tolliver	Hunter	49		51	+1
02:45		Time-out:	Regular	GSW	Tor 50	GSW 49
	Tor	Calderon	Belinelli	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	51		56	+3	1:33
02:45	GSW	Watson	Curry	Williams	Tolliver	Hunter	51		53	-3
	Tor	Calderon	Jack	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	56		60	+1	1:12
01:12	GSW	Watson	Curry	Williams	Tolliver	Hunter	53		56	-1
3rd Q	Tor	Jack	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	60		68	-9	5:01
12:00	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Morrow	Maggette	Tolliver	56		73	+9
09:26		Time-out:	Regular	Tor	Tor 62	GSW 68
	Tor	Jack	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Johnson	Bargnani	68		68	-7	1:24
06:59	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Morrow	Maggette	Tolliver	73		80	+7
	Tor	Jack	Weems	Turkoglu	Johnson	Bargnani	68		68	-3	0:11
05:35	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Morrow	Maggette	Tolliver	80		83	+3
05:24		Time-out:	Regular	Tor	Tor 68	GSW 83
	Tor	Calderon	Weems	Turkoglu	Johnson	Bargnani	68		78	+3	4:16
05:24	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Morrow	Maggette	Tolliver	83		90	-3
	Tor	Calderon	Weems	Wright	Bosh	Bargnani	78		85	0	1:08
01:08	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Morrow	Tolliver	Hunter	90		97	0
4th Q	Tor	Calderon	Weems	Wright	Johnson	Bosh	85		86	+1
12:00	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Morrow	Tolliver	Hunter	97		97	-1	0:13
	Tor	Calderon	Weems	Wright	Johnson	Bosh	86		90	-1
11:47	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Watson	Maggette	Hunter	97		102	+1	3:19
08:28		Time-out:	Official		Tor 90	GSW 101
	Tor	Calderon	Weems	Wright	Johnson	Bargnani	90		92	0
08:28	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Watson	Maggette	Hunter	102		104	0	0:49
	Tor	Calderon	Weems	DeRozan	Bosh	Bargnani	92		96	+4
07:39	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Watson	Maggette	Tolliver	104		104	-4	0:56
	Tor	Calderon	Weems	DeRozan	Bosh	Bargnani	96		112	-4
06:43	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Williams	Maggette	Tolliver	104		124	+4	6:43
05:52		Time-out:	Regular	GSW	Tor 96	GSW 108
02:33		Time-out:	Regular	Tor	Tor 106	GSW 117

you should be able to see that:

* Toronto used 3 distinct pairs of Power Forwards and Centers …

Bosh/PF and Bargnani/C

Johnson/PF and Bargnani/C

Johnson/PF and Bosh/C

PG

OG

SF

+/-

Dur

PG

OG

SF

+/-

Dur

PG

OG

SF

+/-

Dur

Jack

DeRozan

Turkoglu

+1

7:00

Jack

DeRozan

Turkoglu

-1

2:24

Calderon

Weems

Wright

-1

2:15

Calderon

Weems

Wright

0

0:17

Calderon

DeRozan

Turkoglu

+10

2:32

Calderon

Weems

Wright

-1

1:04

Calderon

Belinelli

Wright

-5

1:09

Calderon

DeRozan

Wright

0

0:04

Calderon

Weems

Wright

-3

0:41

Calderon

Belinelli

Turkoglu

+1

3:32

Calderon

Belinelli

Turkoglu

-1

0:17

Calderon

Weems

Wright

+1

0:13

Calderon

Belinelli

Turkoglu

+3

1:33

Jack

DeRozan

Turkoglu

-7

1:24

Calderon

Weems

Wright

-1

3:19

Calderon

Jack

Turkoglu

+1

1:12

Jack

Weems

Turkoglu

-3

0:11

TOTAL

-5

7:32

Jack

DeRozan

Turkoglu

-9

5:01

Calderon

Weems

Turkoglu

+3

4:16

Calderon

Weems

Wright

0

1:08

Calderon

Weems

Wright

0

0:49

Calderon

Weems

DeRozan

+4

0:56

TOTAL

+1

11:57

Calderon

Weems

DeRozan

-4

6:43

TOTAL

-8

28:31

and that the only 5-Man Unit which the Raptors used in this game which was able to dominate the Warriors did so primarily because … for a brief stretch of the 1st Quarter … Don Nelson [i.e. the Warriors' Head Coach] made the mistake of going with an ULTRA-SMALL line-up … comprised of 3 guards and 2 small forwards,

1st Q	Tor	Calderon	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Johnson	Bargnani	23	35	+10	2:32
02:36	GSW	Curry	Ellis	Morrow	Williams	Maggette	23	25	-10

i.e. Curry [6-3, 185] + Ellis [6-3, 180] + Morrow [6-5, 210] + Williams [6-6, 210] + Maggette [6-6, 225],

for the only segment of this game.

As such, it should be noted that:

1. This specific group of Raptors did not dominate the Warriors because of any particular strength which they brought to bare on this game but because they were simply the fivesome that happened to be on the court when Coach Nelson made this specific personnel error;

and, that,

2. If you remove this specific segment from the game, entirely, Golden State was actually a whopping 22 points better than Toronto, whenever they used, either, a semi-conventional or a conventional 5-Man Unit which featured a combination of Corey Maggette [6-6, 225], Anthony Tolliver [6-9, 240] and Chris Hunter [6-11, 240] at the Power Forward and Center positions [i.e. as opposed to the unconventional combination of Reggie Williams, 6-6, 210 and Corey Maggette, as two under-sized Power Forwards].

Instead of using any of the following 5-Man Units:

PG	OG	SF	PF	C
Calderon	Belinelli	Weems	Johnson	Bosh
Calderon	Belinelli	Weems	Turkoglu	Bosh
Calderon	Belinelli	Weems	DeRozan	Bosh
Calderon	Belinelli	Weems	Wright	Bosh
Calderon	Belinelli	DeRozan	Johnson	Bosh
Calderon	Belinelli	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh
Calderon	Belinelli	DeRozan	Wright	Bosh
Calderon	Weems	DeRozan	Johnson	Bosh
Calderon	Weems	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh
Calderon	Weems	DeRozan	Wright	Bosh

to effectively combat the “quickness advantage” to which the Warriors geared their offensive attack, at each of the 5 positions, while smothering the Raptors best efforts to post-up on the block with a myriad of defensive double-teams and rotations, all Toronto did strategically was stick with their customary line-ups and toggle back-and-forth between Man-2-Man and Match-up Zone Defense. 

By using Chris Bosh at Center and Jose Calderon at Point Guard with a combination of Marco Belinelli/OG, Sonny Weems/OG, DeMar DeRozan/OG-SF-PF, Hedo Turkoglu/SF-PF and Amir Johnson/PF, at the other 3 positions, the Raptors would have been much better off than trying to use Andrea Bargnani at Center for 40:28, against an opponent that had NO POWER BASED BIG MAN on their active roster for this game and was committed to using under-sized post players like Tolliver and Hunter at this position.

Although Andrea Bargnani was able to score effectively on 2 isolated post-up situations from the left block, early in the game, using this type of rigid, slow developing, offensive structure is not where the strength of this year’s Raptors team actually lies.

Instead of trying to slow the game down against Golden State, what Toronto actually needed to do was:

1. Remove Bargnani from the equation, altogether, because there was no player on the Warriors squad for him to adequately check;

2. Speed the game up, in order to take best advantage of their superior depth against the out-numbered Warriors …

#	Toronto	Golden State
PRIMARY ROTATION PLAYERS
1	Calderon	Curry
2	Belinelli	Ellis
3	Weems	Watson
4	DeRozan	Morrow
5	Turkoglu	Maggette
6	Johnson	Tolliver
7	Bosh	Hunter
Def	3	2
SECONDARY PALYERS
8	Jack
9	Wright	Williams
10	Bargnani
Def	2	0
EXTRA PLAYERS
11	Evans
12	Nesterovic
Def	1	0
TOT-Def	6	2

and,

3. Simply outscore them, knowing that their own personnel is better equipped to get more defensive stops than is Golden State’s … when Bargnani isn’t in the game … with the Warriors’ current list of injuries and absences and the fact that G-State has surrendered more points than any team in the entire NBA this season.

———————————

Instead of using:

Jarrett Jack [-19] for 17:12  

Antoine Wright [-10] for 10:59, and

Andrea Bargnani [-7] for 40:28,

the Raptors could easily have won this game, by using Chris Bosh as their Center for more than just 7:32 and giving additional PT to Jose Calderon, Marco Belinelli, Sonny Weems, DeMar DeRozan, Hedo Turkoglu [especially, at the PF spot vs Corey Maggette] and Amir Johnson.

Success in the NBA game is determined in large part by making subtle adjustments … from game-to-game and within specific match-ups. When Don Nelson realized the error of his ways, he made a a quick decision to not use his ultra-small line-up for the balance of this game.

Unfortunately for the Raptors’ cause, Jay Triano & Co. made no such adjustment to their original game-plan and, instead, decided to stick with the “same old, same old,” as the preferred method of operation for a team which had lost 7 of its last 8 games playing this way and is going nowhere fast, except down in the Eastern Conference standings.

Tags: Golden State Warriors, Toronto Raptors

This entry was posted on Monday, March 15th, 2010 at 4:46 pm and is filed under Analytics, Basketball, NBA. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.