Breaking down the reasons why the Thunder have trouble scoring points
First.
Sincere thanks and commendations to Kevin Arnovitz for tackling this specific topic in the first place.
Second.
Although Kevin does a good job of providing his own insights on why he thinks Oklahoma City struggles to score during this specific series of possessions, from a technical basketball perspective, there are certain observations included in his analysis which could well be considered less than complete, or somewhat off base, given what was supposed to happen in each of these possessions during this sequence.
Third.
Hopefully Kevin sees this blog entry and approves of what’s been written here as a complementary analysis to his initial thoughts on this subject. 
[at least, this is one of the specific goals of this exercise]
To wit:
[the Bolded regular type below marks the thoughts and ideas of yours truly]
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Saturday night during the tight fourth quarter, we got a glimpse of the Thunder’s struggles when they went more than five minutes without draining a shot from the field. There’s a particularly ghastly stretch of seven possessions over which Oklahoma City generated only a single point on a Durant free throw.
What happened to the Thunder in those moments? Was Durant not finding shots he likes? Was it something akin to what the Lakers or Cavs experience at times when the other four guys on the floor stand around watching Bryant or James? Was Durant forcing the issue? Not forcing it enough?
Possession 1 (5:35)
Inefficient offensive units often have a tendency to squander a good 10 seconds before getting into their sets. Finding good shots against a defense as stingy as Cleveland’s is a tough business, and the more time you budget to generate those looks the better. By milking 10 seconds off the clock, you also let your opponent off the hook because it requires far less energy to defend for 14 seconds than 24 seconds.
On this possession, rookie combo guard James Harden has the ball up top. It appears that the Thunder might be running a pin-down with Russell Westbrook on the right side to free up Durant, but if that’s the case, Westbrook misses Durant’s defender, Anthony Parker, altogether. When Durant gets the pass up top and begins working against Parker, James leaves Harden to double team. No surprise there.
Durant, sometimes criticized for being an unwilling passer, kicks the ball out to Harden, who passes up the 3-pointer (he’s a 37.7 percent shooter from that distance). Harden instead works off the dribble, but it isn’t long before he tosses the grenade back to Durant with the clock expiring. Durant has to settle for a long, contested shot from beyond the arc:
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The most important things at work in Poss. #1 are the following:
- OkC initiated this set play by making a high wing pass, from their PG/Westbrook to their OG/Harden, at the 17 sec mark on the shot clock [i.e. 7 rather than 10 secs into the possession]
- Cleveland’s individual defensive match-ups are in a cross-match scenario with James/SF checking Harden/OG and Parker/OG checking Durant/SF
- when a 1-3 pin down screen is executed on the baseline it takes time to run properly
- the first error which occurs in the Thunder’s execution of the play involves Ibaka not recognizing immediately that he is supposed to be located on the ball side of the floor [i.e. in the low post], not on the weak side
- Durant fails to set up his cut properly by engaging his individual check with a mis-direction move going towards the basket before attempting to use the screen by Westbrook
- Westbrook fails to execute a mis-direct cut, as well, prior to setting his pin down screen for Durant in the weak side corner
- Westbrook does a solid job of jump stopping into his pin down screening position
- Durant does a very poor job of using Westbrook’s screen properly [i.e. to either: i. curl into the lane vs a trailing defender; or, ii. flare out to the wing vs a cheating-up-the-middle defender]
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.
- Westbrook cuts to the left corner properly, in order to clear out the right side of the floor for Durant’s isolation vs Parker
- Parker does a solid job of recognizing OkC’s set play and influences Durant back towards the middle of the floor where his “early help” … i.e. James, who is sagging off Harden [3FG% = 37.7] … is waiting
- instead of “facing up” immediately vs Parker … which is precisely what Durant SHOULD have done, in this situation … KD executes a crab dribble toward the middle of the key, where James is waiting for him [i.e. playing right into Cleveland's defensive strength in this specific scenario and abandoning the right side of the floor where the original isolation play was intended to be run by the Thunder]
* This is an error of inexperience commited by Durant.
- When James comes to double team Durant, KD does a good job of recognizing this and kicks out properly to Harden
- Westbrook and Ibaka do a good job of recognizing properly that they should cut to the right side of the floor in response to Durant’s pass to Harden
- Harden does a poor job of being patient with the ball on the perimeter and … instead of taking his time with a delayed shot fake vs James followed by a quick drive into the lane, after Westbrook has cleared out towards the right corner … rushes his fake, then, hurriedly drives back towards the middle of the key before Ibaka and Westbrook are in their proper positions
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Harden.
- Durant then fails to recognize the situation properly and, instead of spacing out towards the right foul line extended, does nothing and stands still at the top of the key [i.e. TOTK] beyond the arc, which allows his check to, both, [i.] provide “early help” vs Harden’s middle drive AND [ii.] be able to recover to effectively contest KD’s perimeter jump shot
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.
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Possession 2 (4:46)
Another half-hearted down screen for Durant, this time by Jeff Green. Now might be a good time to send some film to the Thunder supporting cast of Kendrick Perkins laying out for Boston’s perimeter scorers. Space matters, and the more room a team can generate for its primary scorer to work, the more efficient that offense is going to run. Fortunately for Durant, Serge Ibaka gets himself between Durant and Parker. This gives Durant one of his better looks at the basket in the fourth quarter, though it’s not wide open. Why not?
Check out Shaquille O’Neal! You won’t see him step up to challenge a shooter on a pick-and-roll very often, but here he sticks a big limb in Durant’s face:
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The most important things at work in Poss. #2 are the following:
- OkC is executing a basic NBA set play referred to as “Zipper, 35″
- Westbrook does a poor job of initially taking his dribble to the foul line extended, from where this set play is supposed to originate
* This is an error of experience committed by Westbrook.
- When Green first sets up to execute his stationary ball side elbow down screen for Durant he [i.e. Green] is not being guarded properly by his defender [i.e. with Hickson between him and the basket, while denying him an easy entry pass] and should have immediately abandoned his designated screening assignment in favour of calling for the direct entry pass from Westbrook
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Green.
- When Durant uses this screen by Green he does a poor job of initially mis-directing his defender by either posting up strong or faking a cut away from his intended direction toward the TOTK [i.e. this is specifically what prevents Durant from gaining any separation from parker]
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.
- Ibaka does a good job setting a solid pick for Durant at the TOTK
- Parker does a good job of “fighting over” this pick
- O’Neal does a good job of “contesting” Durant’s pull-up jump shot
- Durant does a poor job of:
i. Turning the corner to attack O’Neal off the dribble for a quick drive to the basket; or,
ii. Turning the corner, facing up, then being patient to properly assess Cleveland’s defensive rotation
Instead of taking a hurried pull-up 2PT jump shot, in this instance, against a “contesting” O’Neal, Durant should have waited for Ibaka to complete his “roll” to the basket … which would have occupied Gibson and/or Hickson … and then executed a “throwback pass” to Westbrook [who was spotting up on the perimeter along with Green/3FG% = 43.2]
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.
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Possession 3 (4:23)
It’s not a coincidence that Oklahoma City draws a foul early in the possession. Notice how much more quickly and decisively they challenge Cleveland, as Durant makes Parker chase him from the moment they cross the time line?
After the inbound, though, the Thunder have a difficult time freeing up Durant. Throw some credit Anthony Parker’s way. Time and time again in the fourth quarter, he dodges Thunder picks, not yielding an inch to Durant. There’s a telling moment at the 10-second mark. Watch:
See how Westbrook picks up his dribble? He assumes that he’ll lob a simple entry pass to Durant, but Parker is doing such a good job denying that pass that Westbrook has to swing the ball over to Sefolosha in order to get his dribble back on the return. At that point, Westbrook has to freelance, and Daniel Gibson — yes that Daniel Gibson — blocks his runner as the clock expires.
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The most important things at work in Poss. #3 are the following:
- Because Durant had experienced difficulty being able to free himself up on the perimeter for each of the previous 2 possessions by initially coming off screens/picks set by his teammates, on this trip OkC decided to first have KD set a screen, himself, in hopes of creating more initial separation from his defensive check
- Parker does an excellent job of:
i. Following Cleveland’s specific game-plan vs Durant and remembered not to “switch and/or even momentarily help off” him;
ii. “Fighting over” the attempted “Big-to-little Hand-off pass and Pop-out” from Green to Durant; and,
iii. Fouling Durant to prevent this specific action from generating an open/uncontested shot for OkC
[Please Note: When the Thunder use Green ... i.e. checked by Hickson ... to set a "high middle pick" for Durant and "pop out to the perimeter", it works much better [i.e. by creating better spacing on the floor], compared to when they use Ibaka … i.e. checked by O’Neal … to set this “pick and roll” to the basket.]
After the ensuing inbounds pass is made to westbrook …
- Ibaka does a poor job of setting two stationary screens for Durant [i.e. 1st - going to the basket; 2nd - going to the ball side wing]
- Durant does a poor job of reading his defender properly and then using either of Ibaka’s 2 screens …
i.e. when Durant first cuts to the basket/baseline, Parker does not follow him completely; but, instead, stops on low side of Ibaka’s screen and waits for him to re-use Ibaka’s 2nd screen
- the inactivity of Green and Sefolosha on the weak side of the floor, tells the Cleveland defenders located there that Durant has no intention of coming out from this initial cut to the left side of the floor
[Please Note: In general, Cleveland did an excellent job of scouting the Thunder's set plays for this game.]
- Parker then influences Durant to come up the inside of Ibaka’s 2nd screen and does a good job of “trailing on his hip” to contest the initial entry pass from Westbrook, as Durant attempts to curl around Ibaka and move out to the right wing position
- Durant failed to make the proper read, given the way that Parker was defending him, and should have cut up the middle of the lane to the TOTK, in order to receive an uncontested entry pass from Westbrook
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.
- Westbrook does a poor job of picking up his dribble when he sees that there is no uncontested wing entry pass to Durant available on the ball side of the floor
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Westbrook.
- Green and Sefolosha do a poor job of spacing out on the weak side of the floor … i.e. one should have been positioned above the the foul line extended, while the other was below the foul line extended [either in the low post or the deep left corner]
* This is an error of inexperience by both Green and Sefalosha.
- When Sefolosha receives the pass from Westbrook, he makes a hurried return pass, instead of using his dribble to attack the defense towards the “open side” of the floor with 8 seconds remaining on the shot clock
* This is an error of inexperience by Sefolosha.
- When Westbrook receives the return pass from Sefolosha he reacts properly by using his dribble to attack the right/open side of the floor
- Durant fails to move appropriately, however, on the perimeter and, instead of sliding further towards the right corner … in order to occupy his defender … simply stands and watches as Westbrook initiates a 1-on-1 attack vs Gibson, without Durant being in an effective offensive rebounding position
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.
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Possession 4 (3:43)
First Ibaka rushes out of his pick for Westbrook, which gives the Thunder’s point guard nothing. Then the ball goes over to the other side of floor where Green tries to execute to dribble-handoff for Durant. Parker sniffs it out and stays directly on Durant’s left hip. With both Green’s defender (J.J. Hicks0n) and Parker attending to Durant, Green heaves up a jumper a step inside the 3-point line. It’s an open look, but Green is only a 29 percent shooter between 16 and 23 feet. With 12 seconds left on the shot clock and at least 10 feet between Green and O’Neal underneath the basket, why not step in?
Oklahoma City gets an open jumper for Ibaka off the inbound, one of their better opportunities of an otherwise barren stretch. But that shot rims out as well.
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The most important things at work in Poss. #4 are the following:
- OkC is executing a basic Horns Formation, ”1-5 Middle Pick and Roll/pop”
- Ibaka and Green set good initial picks for Westbrook
- Gibson does a good job ”fighting under” Ibaka’s pick, as he should vs a 26.5% 3PT-shooter [i.e. Westbrook]
- Ibaka does a poor job of stopping his roll toward the basket at the front of the rim and, instead, extends his roll further, almost into the left low post position … which allows O’Neal to effectively seal him on the low side and eliminate a “high-low” pass from Green
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Ibaka.
- Westbrook makes the proper read and executes a “throwback pass” to Green
- Green [3FG% = 43.7] fails to face-up to the basket and, instead, rushes his dribble attack towards the left side of the floor against a still closing-out [and, therefore, highly vilnerable] Hickson, in order to initiate a dribble-hand-off pass with Durant
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Green.
- Durant does a poor job of working against his own defender … e.g. by first stopping then starting, or mis-directing his initial cut against Parker … to create space for himself, when receiving and then coming off this dribble-hand-off pass
[Please Note: Durant is not "helped" at all by the poor position of Ibaka, who mistakenly rolled into the left low post position.]
* This is an error of inexperience committed by both Ibaka and Durant.
- Green then rushes his wide open long distance 2PT jump shot … with 10+ secs left on the shot clock … when Hickson [in error] and Parker [correctly] both go with Durant … and, turns down the opportunity to drive the ball toward an undefended basket
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Green.
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Possession 5 (3:08)
Basketball can be a cruel game. The Thunder finally gets Durant some space to drive off a high screen from Ibaka, but Durant loses control of the handle as he scampers into the paint.
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The most important things at work in Poss. #5 are the following:
- OkC now decides to shift Durant into one of the “picking” positions in their Horns Formation, in an effort to create a better scoring opportunity for him
- As was mentioned earlier, however, whenever the Thunder use Ibaka to set this High Middle Pick on Durant and, subsequently “roll” him towards the basket … while Ibaka is being checked by O’Neal … it simply creates “bad spacing” on the floor [as you should be able to see clearly with the congested lane, in this instance] which then results in Durant losing control of his dribble and a Turnover for the Thunder
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Scott Brooks.
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Possession 6 (2:57)
Sefolosha has undoubtedly made the Thunder a better basketball team, but here’s where he hurts Oklahoma City a bit on the offensive end. Watch the action underneath the basket. Pay special attention to how Durant runs his man, Parker, off Green, then flashes to the foul line:
Notice how James picks up Durant without incident while Parker recovers? It’s a luxury the Cavs have because they’re more than willing to live with an open Sefolosha on the weak side perimeter for a second or two. Now imagine that’s Ray Allen, Jamal Crawford, Vince Carter, [fill in sharpshooting 2 of your choice] spreading the floor? James has to at least think about that switch, maybe hesitate for a split second, lest Westbrook swing a skip pass to the open shooter on the wing. Either way, that baseline screen that disrupts Parker forces Cleveland to make a much more difficult choice and makes the Thunder much tougher to defend.
As it turns out, Durant is able to beat James off the dribble and draw a foul on O’Neal inside. He sinks one of two free throws for the Thunder’s only point of this stretch.
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The most important things at work in Poss. #6 are the following:
- OkC is executing a basic NBA set play with their other wing player and their 2 Bigs setting independent but coordinated screens for their scoring wing player, who starts his cut to the perimeter from beneath the basket … i.e. #1 [wing player] and #2 [Big 1] are baseline cross screens; #3 [Big 2] is a middle down [clean-up] screen
- Parker does a terrific job of fighting around Sefolosha’s 1st cscreen and then getting between Durant and Green on the 2nd screen
- Durant recognizes this properly and changes his direction to cut up the middle of the lane off screen #3 [by Ibaka]
- As was mentioned earlier, however, Cleveland has done an outstanding job of scouting OkC, in advance of this game, and has implemented a series of highly specific schematic defensive “counters” designed to nullify the first option of a specific set play like this by the Thunder …
i.e. in this instance, the defensive counter calls for James to initiate a designated “switch” between the 2 defenders assigned to check the weak side wing player [i.e. Sefolosha] and the shooter/scorer [i.e. Durant] attempting to use the middle down screen.
- By all appearances, OkC was caught off guard by this strategy … i.e. notice how Ibaka attempts to jump out to his right, in order to still try and screen Parker [who was moving to defender Sefolosha on the right wing], even though he was no longer involved in defending against Durant … and was totally unprepared to attack the Cavaliers’ counter in an appropriate way
[e.g. Ibaka should seal O'Neal at the front of the rim, as Durant clears out high to the TOTK, and then demand the ball in the middle of the lane to work 1-on-1 against a much slower interior defender]
* This is an error of inexperience committed by either Ibaka or Scott Brooks.
- When Durant eventually drives to the right side of the floor against James and draws three defenders towards himself, he then fails to execute a kic-out pass to a wide open Sefolosha or Green, positioned properly in the right and left corners, respectively
* This is an error of inexperience committed by Durant.
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Possession 7 (2:24)
Oklahoma City clearly likes what it saw on the previous possession because they run the same set. The only difference? Sefolosha is set up on the ball side this time around, which prevents James from helping out Parker on the recovery. Unfortunately for Durant & Co., the action down low doesn’t generate nearly the amount of separation that Durant was able to get the time before:
If the Thunder could stitch together the best attributes of Possession #6 (separation) with Possession #7 (spacing), they’d have a little chalkboard jewel. Instead, Durant misses short on a rushed attempt with Parker in close pursuit.
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The most important things at work in Poss. #7 are the following:
- OkC is executing a basic NBA set play which involves their 2 Bigs setting coordinated staggered screens for their preferred shooting/scoring wing player, to cut to either the TOTK or the weak side wing, while their non-preferred wing player is positioned in the ball side corner, as a decoy
[Please Note: It is no coincidence that Ibaka sets the 2nd screen in this set play, since it works much better when an immobile defender like O'Neal is forced to help defend against the 2nd obstacle in the way of the shooter/scorer's defensive check.]
- In this case, Durant does a much better job of changing his initial direction, in order to properly mis-direct his individual defender, and then also does a better job of reading the eventual route his defender takes in order to recover on him, by going around the 2nd screen … either: i. curling vs the trail [which is what happens here], or ii. flaring vs the up-the-middle-cheat
** This is an instance of sound play calling by the Thunder’s head coach/Scott Brooks and Point Guard/Russell Westbrook.
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It’s Early Yet
NBA defenders are a wily bunch and Oklahoma City is still an incredibly young team. They’re just beginning to tackle the inordinately difficult task of finding open shots against the world’s longest, most agile and most intuitive defenders. Right now, those defenders are zeroing in on Kevin Durant. That’s going to force everyone on the Thunder to be more resourceful. The coaching staff will have to find new ways to get Durant open. Durant’s teammates will have to learn how to run better interference between Durant and defensive aces like Anthony Parker. Most of all, Durant will have to figure out how to make defenses pay for overplaying him. It turns out there’s some relevant precedence for this. Remember the Cavs’ 2007 50-32 squad that made the Finals? That team was 19th in offensive efficiency. And while LeBron James has always been an instinctive passer — something you can’t really say about Durant — it took some time for him to establish that trust with teammates. Durant’s just getting started. The strides we’ve seen Durant make in his game over the past three months will likely translate into an improvement in his team’s overall offensive efficiency.
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The most important things at work here are the following:
- A major part of the reason why defenders are able to zero in on Kevin Durant is due to the fact that OkC, on occasion, attempts to run as many as 7 consecutive possessions directly through their principal scorer, in the first place
- This fact is then compounded when several of their set plays, as seen here, are properly executed without involving more than 2 or 3 passes and, in general, do not require other players to touch the ball, make plays, passes and reads which can create open shot opportunities for themselves or their uncovered teammates [including Kevin Durant]
- Learning how to “run better interference for Durant” may not in fact be a major component of the Thunder’s current struggles to score the ball with greater efficiency … at least, in direct comparison with:
#1. Improving Kevin Durant’s own ability to set-up his individual defender properly with initial mis-direction cuts to make better use of the different screens and picks which are already being set for him by his teammates;
#2. Improving the present abilities of their exceptionally young core of players … e.g. Durant, Green, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden, and Sefolosha … to make the proper individual “reads” involved in playing the game of basketball in an efficient way, in concert with one another, at the highest level possible.
#3. Improving Scott Brooks’ understanding of offensive basketball and identifying properly what specific strategies and techniques will in fact work best for the individual players on his roster, given the unique skill-sets which they possess, as some of the most talented young players in the NBA today.
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At this relatively early stage of their development curve, if the Oklahoma City Thunder can continue to make these subtle improvements in the way they approach the offensive side of the game, there is little doubt that they are poised to become a solid contending team in the Western Conference for years to come.
Tags: James Harden, Jeff Green, Kevin Arnovitz, Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Thabo Sefolosha, TrueHoop