khandor’s sports blog

Productive 5-man units for Toronto vs Indiana

Toronto Raptors 101
INDIANA PACERS 105
Complete Game Info – Mon Jan 11 2010

When you take a closer look at the way this specific game was played by these two teams, in terms of their respective rotations:

A.i. LINE-UPS
Raptors and Pacers each use a conventional 5-man unit.
Raptors use Hedo Turkoglu at SF.

1^st	Quarter
TIME	TEAM	PG	OG	SF	PF	C	START	END	DIFF
12:00	Tor	Jack	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	00	12	+7
06:54	IND	Watson	Head	Granger	Murphy	Hibbert	00	5	-7

06:54	Tor	-	-	-	-	-	12	24	-1
01:45	IND	-	Rush	-	-	S-Jones	5	18	+1
Sub-total								Raptors	+6

3^rd	Quarter
TIME	TEAM	PG	OG	SF	PF	C	START	END	DIFF
12:00	Tor	Jack	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	65	69	-5
07:58	IND	Watson	Head	Granger	Murphy	S-Jones	52	61	+5

07:58	Tor	Calderon	-	-	-	-	69	72	-2
06:48	IND	-	-	-	-	-	61	66	+2

06:48	Tor	-	-	-	-	-	72	75	-1
05:45	IND	-	-	-	Hansbrough	-	66	70	+1
Sub-total								Raptors	-9
Total								Raptors	-3

A.ii. LINE-UPS
Raptors and Pacers each use a conventional 5-man unit.
Raptors use Sonny Weems at SF.

1^st	Quarter
TIME	TEAM	PG	OG	SF	PF	C	START	END	DIFF
01:45	Tor	Jack	DeRozan	Weems	Johnson	Bargnani	24	24	0
01:28	IND	Price	Rush	Dunleavy	Hansbrough	S-Jones	18	18	0

01:28	Tor	Calderon	-	-	-	-	24	30	+2
00:00	IND	-	-	-	-	-	18	22	-2
Sub-total								Raptors	+2

2^nd	Quarter
TIME	TEAM	PG	OG	SF	PF	C	START	END	DIFF
12:00	Tor	Calderon	Belinelli	Weems	Johnson	Nesterovic	30	39	+7
09:44	IND	Price	Rush	Dunleavy	Hansbrough	Hibbert	22	24	-7

09:44	Tor	-	-	-	-	-	39	45	+4
08:23	IND	-	-	Granger	-	Murphy	24	26	-4

08:23	Tor	-	-	-	-	-	45	48	+3
08:09	IND	Watson	Price	-	-	-	26	26	-3
Sub-total								Raptors	+14

3^rd	Quarter
TIME	TEAM	PG	OG	SF	PF	C	START	END	DIFF
05:45	Tor	Calderon	DeRozan	Weems	Johnson	Bosh	75	76	+1
05:32	IND	Watson	Rush	Granger	Hansbrough	S-Jones	70	70	-1

05:32	Tor	-	-	-	-	-	76	80	-2
03:57	IND	-	-	-	-	Murphy	70	76	+2

03:57	Tor	-	Belinelli	-	-	-	80	82	+1
02:36	IND	-	-	Dunleavy	-	-	76	77	-1

02:36	Tor	-	-	-	-	Bargnani	82	82	-1
01:12	IND	Price	-	-	-	-	77	78	+1

01:12	Tor	-	-	-	-	-	82	84	+2
00:00	IND	-	-	-	-	S-Jones	78	78	-2
Sub-total								Raptors	+1
Total								Raptors	+17

B. LINE-UPS
Pacers use an unconventional/”small” 5-man unit with Danny Granger at PF.
Raptors use a conventional 5-man unit with Hedo Turkoglu and then Antoine Wright at SF.

2^nd	Quarter
TIME	TEAM	PG	OG	SF	PF	C	START	END	DIFF
05:36	Tor	Jack	Belinelli	Wright	Turkoglu	Bosh	53	59	-1
03:01	IND	Watson	Head	Dunleavy	Granger	Murphy	36	43	+1

03:01	Tor	Calderon	Wright	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	59	62	-1
01:55	IND	-	-	-	-	S-Jones	43	47	+1

01:55	Tor	Belinelli	-	-	-	-	62	62	-3
11.7	IND	-	-	-	-	-	47	50	+3

11.7	Tor	-	-	-	-	-	62	65	+1
00:00	IND	-	-	-	-	Murphy	50	52	-1
Sub-total								Raptors	-4

4^th	Quarter
TIME	TEAM	PG	OG	SF	PF	C	START	END	DIFF
12:00	Tor	Calderon	Belinelli	Turkoglu	Johnson	Bargnani	84	86	+2
11:22	IND	Price	Rush	Dunleavy	Granger	Murphy	78	78	-2

11:22	Tor	-	-	Wright	Turkoglu	-	86	88	-5
09:50	IND	-	-	-	-	-	78	85	+5

09:50	Tor	Jack	-	-	-	-	88	89	+1
08:42	IND	-	-	-	-	-	85	85	-1

08:42	Tor	-	-	-	-	-	89	89	-2
07:56	IND	Watson	Price	-	-	-	85	87	+2

07:56	Tor	-	-	-	Bosh	-	89	89	-2
07:19		-	-	-	-	-	87	89	+2

07:19	Tor	Calderon	Jack	-	-	-	89	100	-2
13.9	IND	-	-	-	-	-	89	102	+2
Sub-total								Raptors	-8
Total								Raptors	-12

C. LINE-UPS
Pacers use an unconventional/”small” 5-man unit with Danny Granger at PF.
Raptors use an unconventional 5-man unit with Hedo Turkoglu at PF and Sonny Weems at SF.

2^nd	Quarter
TIME	TEAM	PG	OG	SF	PF	C	START	END	DIFF
08:09	Tor	Calderon	Belinelli	Weems	Johnson	Bosh	48	51	-2
07:18	IND	Watson	Price	Dunleavy	Granger	Murphy	26	31	+2

07:18	Tor	-	-	-	Turkoglu	-	51	53	-3
05:36	IND	-	-	-	-	-	31	36	+3
Sub-total								Raptors	-5
Total								Raptors	-5

what you should be able to see is that each squad had considerable success with specific types of 5-man units and struggled mightily with others.

LINE-UPS
TYPE	RAPTORS	PACERS	Result
A.i.	Conventional with Turkoglu at SF	Conventional	Tor -3
A.ii.	Conventional with Weems at SF	Conventional	Tor +17
B.	Conventional with Turkoglu and then Wright at SF	Unconventional/”small” with Granger at PF	Tor -12
C.	Unconventional/”small” with Weems at SF and Turkoglu at PF	Unconventional/”small” with Granger at PF	Tor -5

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

#1. When the Pacers first went “small”, at the 08:09 mark of the 2nd quarter, down by 22 points, what the Raptors needed to do in response was:

- Keep Amir Johnson/PF in the game, matched-up vs Danny Granger

- Replace Marco Belinelli/OG with Hedo Turkoglu/SF; shift Sonny Weems to the OG position; and, replace Rasho Nesterovic/C with Chris Bosh

If Toronto would have made these specific moves it would have created the following individual match-ups:

Pos, Raptor [Off|Def|Reb] vs Opp

PG, Calderon [+|-|0] vs Price
OG, Weems [0|+|+] vs Rush
SF, Turkoglu [0|-|0] vs Dunleavy
PF, Johnson [-|+|0] vs Granger
C, Bosh [0|+|0] vs Murphy

and put the Raptors in a good position to maintain their 20+ point lead heading toward half-time.

#2. When the Pacers went “small” to begin the 4th quarter, what the Raptors needed to do was:

- Replace Marco Belinelli/OG with Sonny Weems, at the 11:22 mark

- Keep Amir Johnson/PF on the floor, matched-up vs Danny Granger

If Toronto would have made these specific moves it would have created the following individual match-ups:

PG, Calderon [+|-|0] vs Price
OG, Weems [-|+|+] vs Rush
SF, Turkoglu [0|-|0] vs Dunleavy
PF, Johnson [-|+|0] vs Granger
C, Bargnani [0|0|-] vs Murphy

and put the Raptors in a good position to maintain their 8 point lead heading toward crunch time … i.e. the final 10 minutes … in the 4th quarter.

#3. According to the 5-man unit stats at 82games.com, the Raptors have yet to try the combination of:

Calderon/PG + Weems/OG + Turkolgu/SF + Bosh/PF + Bargnani/C

this season for any significant stretch of playing time.

Although Sonny Weems has yet to convert a 3PT-shot in his NBA career, at 6-6, 203 he is an athletic defender/rebounder, at the OG position, who:

i. Shoots 45% on his 2FGAs
ii. Slashes well to the basket, in both half and full court situations
iii. Has the ability to draw fouls, and
iv. Plays with a high degree of energy.

An effective compliment to the specific skill-sets of Jose Calderon [i.e. a good ball-handler and perimeter shooter], Hedo Turkoglu [i.e. a solid ball-handler and perimeter shooter], Andrea Bargnani [i.e. a good perimeter shooter] and Chris Bosh [i.e. a good mid-range/low-post scorer] … Sonny Weems is the player who the Raptors need to play at the OG position when the opposition elects to go “small” vs Toronto, like the Pacers did, during key stretches of Monday’s game.

Tags: AJ Price, Amir Johnson, Andrea Bargnani, Antoine Wright, Brandon Rush, Chris Bosh, Danny Granger, Earl Watson, Hedo Turkoglu, Indiana Pacers, Jarrett Jack, Jose Calderon, Luther Head, Marco Belinelli, Mike Dunleavy, Rasho Nesterovic, Roy Hibbert, Solomon Jones, Sonny Weems, Toronto Raptors, Troy Murphy, Tyler Hansbrough

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 13th, 2010 at 1:01 am and is filed under Analytics, Basketball, NBA. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

11 Responses to “Productive 5-man units for Toronto vs Indiana”

Tom L Says:
January 13th, 2010 at 7:24 am
This is gold. I had worked out something similar (although no where near as detailed) last night. Excellent analysis.
Morning Coffee – Jan 13 | Slam Dunking Says:
January 13th, 2010 at 9:25 am
[...] khandor’s sports blog » Productive 5-man units for Toronto vs Indiana When the Pacers first went “small”, at the 08:09 mark of the 2nd quarter, down by 22 points, what the Raptors needed to do in response was: [...]
Hardcore Raps Says:
January 13th, 2010 at 9:50 am
Put basically… Triano made the mistake of trying to match up with Indy instead of making Indy match up with them.

Or even more basically… he shouldn’t have put the clearly tired players on the floor, especially considering the ’2nd unit’ was playing well.
rob Says:
January 13th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
triano has yet to prove he is able to make mid game strategic changes to an obvious game plan…
Scott G Says:
January 13th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
Interesting stuff that has been intuitively obvious for some time — now there’s numbers to back it up!

What about DeRozan? I think he has a fairly similar game to Weems, maybe a little better offensively and on the boards and a little worse defensively? Playing JC/JJ/HT/CB/AB in crunch time is absolutely killing us. It’s the no defense / no rebounding lineup (save for CB, obviously).

Khan – what’s your take on the Bosh-Bynum trade rumor? My preference would be to keep Bosh, but if that’s not going to happen I can’t see the Raps getting a better offer than that. Bynum looked pretty good last night against TD… although putting him beside Bargs would not work very well. (I’m just speaking in terms of the talent level we’d be getting back.)
khandor Says:
January 14th, 2010 at 9:16 am
Tom L,

Thanks for the compliment.
khandor Says:
January 14th, 2010 at 9:34 am
Hardcore,

1. “Matching-up with an opponent”, in and of itself, is not a strategic/tactical mistake.

“Matching-up with an opponent” poorly, however, is a strategic/tactical blunder.

2. “Making an opponent match-up with you” is beyond/out of your control.

The choice you have as a coach is simple:

a. Match-up with your opponent’s pieces;

or,

b. Not match-up with your opponent’s pieces.

What your opponent does is up to him/her.

If you choose “a”, then, this means that you believe in the power of individual match-ups, in the first place.

If you choose “b”, then, this means that you do not believe in the power of individual match-ups, in the first place.

If you choose “a”, then, what becomes important is:

i. Which team is initiating/dictating the strategic substitutions?

ii. Can the specific personnel moves your team makes “influence” your opponent to respond with an individual match-up [or, more than just 1] which is actually in your favour?

A proper understanding of How The Match-up Game Actually Works is a fundamental component of understanding NBA hoops thoroughly.

3. IMO, fatigue was a non-factor in this specific Raptors’ loss.
khandor Says:
January 14th, 2010 at 9:35 am
rob,

Essentially, I’m in agreement with your observation.

IMO, this is an aspect of Jay’s coaching which needs to improve.
khandor Says:
January 14th, 2010 at 9:59 am
Scott G.,

1. I’m in agreement with your observation re: DeRozan.

IMO, Jay is making a strategic/tactical error by refusing to use DD in the 4th quarter of games this season, in a coonscious effort to ease his way into the NBA game.

As we’ve discussed before, IMO, DeRozan should be getting the bulk of the available PT at the OG position this season, as Option One.

What I’ve written here, re: Weems, should be implemented as Option Two.

At this point in the season, using Jack/PG with Belinelli/OG should be a distant Option Three.

Calderon/PG with Belinelli/OG and Weems/SF should be Option Four.

etc., etc., etc.

2. Using these 5 players together:

Calderon/G + Jack/G + Turkoglu/SF + Bosh/PF + Bargnani/C

is a poor option for the Raptors, given what the available alternative are:

[for example]

OFFENSIVELY
Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Calderon + Weems + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Calderon + DeRozan + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Weems + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + DeRozan + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Belinelli + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Belinelli + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani

DEFENSIVELY
Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Calderon + Weems + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Calderon + DeRozan + Weems + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Weems + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + DeRozan + Weems + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Belinelli + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Belinelli + Weems + Johnson + Bosh

etc., etc., etc.

3. I’m in agreement with your take on the Bosh-for-Bynum trade scenario.

If the Lakers were to make this specific move this summer and, then, be able to keep together:

Kobe + Artest + Odom + Gasol + Bosh

they would win the NBA championship for the foreseeable future

as long as Dr. Phil is their coach

… barring a re-alignment of some sort which would ultimately see D-Wade, LBJ and D12 hook-up with one another on the same team.

———-

Option One for the Raptors should be to re-sign Chris Bosh.
Scott G Says:
January 14th, 2010 at 1:18 pm
Ok good… I had hoped DD hadn’t somehow gotten on your bad side.

I actually like him a lot as a player going forward, as I think he’s got top-notch athleticism, a good body, and a very nice feel for the game given his youth. I think that if he tightens up his handle a fair bit and adds some range to his jumper (although his form is solid, so I think this will happen with time) he can become a very nice player. In terms of D, I think he’s improved a lot already this year and certainly has the physical tools to continue to improve in that area. Most of all, he seems like a great kid that wants to improve. But maybe this is me looking for a ray of sunlight in an otherwise dark time in the history of this franchise…

One other thing — at this point, I’m fully convinced that Bargs has the physical tools to be a solid defender (not a great one, but a solid one). He’s not that slow (when he wants to move quickly). The biggest issue is his commitment/desire to play D… a sad statement indeed, given that hoops is his job. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen him hedge out nicely on a PNR, but as soon as the ball is passed off, he straightens up and loafs back to his man at half speed. I know this is a re-hash of your old blog posts, but it’s time for the kid gloves to come off with this guy.
khandor Says:
January 14th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
Scott G.,

1. DeRozan’s upside at the OG position remains very solid.

2. Bargnani’s defensive effort is continuing to improve.

Although his overall “awareness” is still lacking … e.g. in terms of providing the appropriate level of help to his teammates and making an extended effort to block shots by coming from a fair distance off the ball … he is now closing the gap, in this regard, on the other good young centers across the league that was once extremely wide.

3. As I’ve said for a long time now … i.e. in fact, prior to starting this blog … there have always been plenty of worthwhile assets in the Raptors’ war chest:

2006-2007
Bosh, Calderon, Bargnani, Ford, Parker, Garbajosa [healthy], Nesterovic, Humphries, Graham and Peterson

2007-2008
Bosh, Calderon, Bargnani, Ford, Parker, Garbajosa [injured], Nesterovic, Humphries, Graham and Moon

2008-2009
Bosh, Calderon, Bargnani, Marion, Parker, Humphries, Graham and Ukic

2009-2010
Bosh, Calderon, Bargnani, Turkoglu, Jack, Johnson, Weems and Belinelli

provided that the REAL goal of MLSE is to try its very best to put a NBA championship-calibre team on the floor in Toronto …

Michael Grange on the choice which MLSE will have to make

which, unfortunately, is still very much in doubt, from my perspective.

The real problem with this organization has never ever been with its players and their individual short-comings [e.g. Bargnani's relative lack of defensive ability].

Instead, the real problems have always been:

1. The ownership of MLSE.
2. The GM’s who the owners have decided to hire for the Raptors and the Maple Leafs.
3. The specific Sport Philosophy of those GM’s.
————————————————————————————
4.A. The coaching staffs that those GM’s have then decided to hire.
4.B. The key players who those GM’s have then decided to acquire via the Draft, trades and free agency.
5. The specialist role players who GM’s have then decided to acquire via the Draft, trades and free agency.

Productive 5-man units for Toronto vs Indiana

11 Responses to “Productive 5-man units for Toronto vs Indiana”

Leave a Reply