Projecting the Raptors’ final Won-Loss Record for this season, by the numbers
On Monday, advance predictions were made for the outcome of every game remaining this season for the No. 5-14 teams in the Eastern Conference, based on what’s transpired to this point, according to the Basketball Acumen of yours truly.
Can Raptors retain Chris Bosh with another 1st Round Exit?
Using that specific process, an extrapolation was then made which projects one possible version of the Final Standings for the Eastern Conference that looks like this:
|
Finish |
Team |
Projected |
Projected |
Current |
Current |
Interim |
Interim |
Relative Movement |
|
1 |
Boston |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
Cleveland |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
Orlando |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
Atlanta |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
Charlotte |
46-36 |
.561 |
15-18 |
.455 |
31-18 |
.633 |
Major Improvement |
|
6 |
Miami |
43-39 |
.524 |
17-15 |
.531 |
26-24 |
.520 |
Maintain Pace |
|
7 |
Chicago |
41-41 |
.500 |
14-19 |
.424 |
27-22 |
.551 |
Noticeable Improvement |
|
8 |
Toronto |
40-42 |
.488 |
17-18 |
.486 |
23-24 |
.489 |
Status Quo |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
Philadelphia |
39-43 |
.476 |
10-24 |
.294 |
29-19 |
.604 |
Significant Improvement |
|
10 |
New York |
35-47 |
.427 |
14-20 |
.412 |
21-27 |
.438 |
Slight Improvement |
|
11 |
Milwaukee |
34-48 |
.415 |
14-18 |
.438 |
20-30 |
.400 |
Slight Decrease |
|
12 |
Washington |
32-50 |
.390 |
11-21 |
.344 |
21-29 |
.420 |
Noticeable Improvement |
|
13 |
Detroit |
30-52 |
.366 |
11-22 |
.333 |
19-30 |
.388 |
Slight Improvement |
|
14 |
Indiana |
26-56 |
.317 |
11-23 |
.324 |
15-33 |
.313 |
Status Quo |
From a Raptors’ perspective, however, how might a “Final Standings/Won-Loss projection” change, if the only factors considered were:
A. How the team has performed to-date, according to its current Winning Percentage;
B. How the team’s Opponents have performed to-date, according to their Average Winning Percentage; and,
C. How the team should be expected to perform in their remaining games, considering their upcoming Opponents’ Average Winning Percentage?
|
RAPTORS SCHEDULE AND RESULTS, 2009-2010 |
|||||
|
Game |
Opp |
Opp W% |
W-L |
TOR Rec |
TOR Tot |
|
October, Game 01-02 + November, Game 03-18 |
|||||
|
G 01 |
vs CLE |
.750 |
W |
1-0 |
1-0 |
|
G 02 |
@ MEM |
.515 |
L |
1-1 |
1-1 |
|
G 03 |
vs ORL |
.706 |
L |
1-2 |
1-2 |
|
G 04 |
vs DET |
.333 |
W |
2-2 |
2-2 |
|
G 05 |
@ NOH |
.500 |
W |
3-2 |
3-2 |
|
G 06 |
@ DAL |
.686 |
L |
3-3 |
3-3 |
|
G 07 |
@ SAS |
.625 |
L |
3-4 |
3-4 |
|
G 08 |
vs CHI |
.424 |
W |
4-4 |
4-4 |
|
G 09 |
@ LAC |
.455 |
W |
5-4 |
5-4 |
|
G 10 |
@ PHO |
.629 |
L |
5-5 |
5-5 |
|
G 11 |
@ DEN |
.629 |
L |
5-6 |
5-6 |
|
G 12 |
@ UTA |
.529 |
L |
5-7 |
5-7 |
|
G 13 |
vs MIA |
.531 |
W |
6-7 |
6-7 |
|
G 14 |
vs ORL |
.706 |
L |
6-8 |
6-8 |
|
G 15 |
vs IND |
.324 |
W |
7-8 |
7-8 |
|
G 16 |
@ CHA |
.455 |
L |
7-9 |
7-9 |
|
G 17 |
@ BOS |
.750 |
L |
7-10 |
7-10 |
|
G 18 |
vs PHO |
.629 |
L |
7-11 |
7-11 |
|
|
Opp W% |
.565 |
TOR W% |
.389 |
.389 |
|
December, Game 19-33 + January, Game 34 & 35 |
|||||
|
G 19 |
vs WAS |
.344 |
L |
0-1 |
7-12 |
|
G 20 |
@ ATL |
.636 |
L |
0-2 |
7-13 |
|
G 21 |
@ WAS |
.344 |
W |
1-2 |
8-13 |
|
G 22 |
@ CHI |
.424 |
W |
2-2 |
9-13 |
|
G 23 |
vs MIN |
.200 |
W |
3-2 |
10-13 |
|
G 24 |
@ MIL |
.438 |
L |
3-3 |
10-14 |
|
G 25 |
vs ATL |
.636 |
L |
3-4 |
10-15 |
|
G 26 |
vs HOU |
.571 |
W |
4-4 |
11-15 |
|
G 27 |
@ MIA |
.531 |
L |
4-5 |
11-16 |
|
G 28 |
@ ORL |
.706 |
L |
4-6 |
11-17 |
|
G 29 |
vs NJN |
.088 |
W |
5-6 |
12-17 |
|
G 30 |
vs NOH |
.500 |
W |
6-6 |
13-17 |
|
G 31 |
@ DET |
.333 |
W |
7-6 |
14-17 |
|
G 32 |
vs DET |
.333 |
W |
8-6 |
15-17 |
|
G 33 |
vs CHA |
.455 |
W |
9-6 |
16-17 |
|
G 34 |
@ BOS |
.750 |
L |
9-7 |
16-18 |
|
G 35 |
vs SAS |
.625 |
W |
10-7 |
17-18 |
|
|
Opp W% |
.466 |
TOR W% |
.588 |
.486 |
|
January, Game 36–48 |
|||||
|
G 36 |
@ ORL |
.706 |
|
|
|
|
G 37 |
@ PHI |
.294 |
|
|
|
|
G 38 |
vs BOS |
.750 |
|
|
|
|
G 39 |
@ IND |
.324 |
|
|
|
|
G 40 |
@ NYK |
.412 |
|
|
|
|
G 41 |
vs DAL |
.686 |
|
|
|
|
G 42 |
@ CLE |
.750 |
|
|
|
|
G 43 |
@ MIL |
.438 |
|
|
|
|
G 44 |
vs MIL |
.438 |
|
|
|
|
G 45 |
vs LAL |
.824 |
|
|
|
|
G 46 |
vs MIA |
.531 |
|
|
|
|
G 47 |
@ NYK |
.412 |
|
|
|
|
G 48 |
vs IND |
.324 |
|
6-7 |
23-25 |
|
|
Opp W% |
.530 |
TOR W% |
.459 |
.479 |
|
Febraury, Game 49-58 |
|||||
|
G 49 |
@ IND |
.324 |
|
|
|
|
G 50 |
vs NJN |
0.88 |
|
|
|
|
G 51 |
vs SAC |
.412 |
|
|
|
|
G 52 |
vs PHI |
.294 |
|
|
|
|
G 53 |
vs MEM |
.515 |
|
|
|
|
G 54 |
@ NJN |
.088 |
|
|
|
|
G 55 |
vs WAS |
.344 |
|
|
|
|
G 56 |
vs POR |
.595 |
|
|
|
|
G 57 |
vs CLE |
.750 |
|
|
|
|
G 58 |
@ OKC |
.559 |
|
6-4 |
29-29 |
|
|
Opp W% |
.476 |
TOR W% |
.559 |
.500 |
|
March, Game 59-74 |
|||||
|
G 59 |
@ HOU |
.571 |
|
|
|
|
G 60 |
vs NYK |
.412 |
|
|
|
|
G 61 |
vs PHI |
.294 |
|
|
|
|
G 62 |
@ LAL |
.824 |
|
|
|
|
G 63 |
@ SAC |
.412 |
|
|
|
|
G 64 |
@ GSW |
.273 |
|
|
|
|
G 65 |
@ POR |
.595 |
|
|
|
|
G 66 |
vs ATL |
.636 |
|
|
|
|
G 67 |
vs OKC |
.559 |
|
|
|
|
G 68 |
@ NJN |
.088 |
|
|
|
|
G 69 |
@ MIN |
.200 |
|
|
|
|
G 70 |
vs UTA |
.529 |
|
|
|
|
G 71 |
vs DEN |
.629 |
|
|
|
|
G 72 |
@ MIA |
.531 |
|
|
|
|
G 73 |
@ CHA |
.455 |
|
|
|
|
G 74 |
vs LAC |
.455 |
|
9-7 |
38-36 |
|
|
Opp W% |
.467 |
TOR W% |
.570 |
.514 |
|
April, Game 75-82 |
|||||
|
G 75 |
@ PHI |
.294 |
|
|
|
|
G 76 |
vs GSW |
.273 |
|
|
|
|
G 77 |
@ CLE |
.750 |
|
|
|
|
G 78 |
vs BOS |
.750 |
|
|
|
|
G 79 |
@ ATL |
.636 |
|
|
|
|
G 80 |
vs CHI |
.424 |
|
|
|
|
G 81 |
@ DET |
.333 |
|
|
|
|
G 82 |
vs NYK |
.412 |
|
4-4 |
42-40 |
|
|
Opp W% |
.484 |
TOR W% |
.549 |
.512 |
|
Legend: W-L – Won-Loss Outcome; TOR Rec – Raptors’ W-L Record; TOR Tot – Raptors’ Total W-L Record; Opp W% - Raptors Opponents’ Winning Percentage; TOR W% - Raptors’ Winning Percentage; Grey Shade – Games Played to-date. |
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Any way you would like to slice it … and, consistent with what was first suggested here in the summer … there is now a fairly good chance that the Raptors will find themselves in a battle with several teams for a low end playoff seed for the duration of the season.
Hopefully, they will be able to rise to the occasion … and, in the process, convince Chris Bosh - their best player, by a wide margin - to resign with their team during the upcoming off season.
Should this not happen, however, and the Raptors actually fail to make the playoffs this year, for the 2nd consecutive season, it will be very difficult to see what, if any, tangible improvements have been made with this franchise over the course of the 2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 seasons … i.e. considering where the team was actually positioned, at the mid-way point of the 2005-2006 campaign:
|
ASSET |
STATUS, AS FEBRUARY 2006 |
| Chris Bosh, PF/C | 2003, No. 4 [overall] Draft Pick, on the roster [subsequent MAX Contract player] |
| Rafael Araujo, PF | 2004, No. 8 [overall] Draft Pick, on the roster [subsequently traded for Kris Humphries/2004, No. 14, overall, Draft Pick] |
| Charlie Villanueva, PF | 2005, No. 7 [overall] Draft Pick, on the roster [subsequently traded for T.J. Ford/2003, No. 8, overall, Draft Pick] |
| Joey Graham, SF | 2005, No. 16 [overall] Draft Pick, on the roster |
| Andrea Bargnani, C | 2006, NBA Lottery Selection, eventually used on the No. 1 [overall] Draft Pick |
| Sam Mitchell, HC | 2006-2007, NBA COTY Award Winner, on the roster |
| Jose Calderon, PG | 2008-2009, 2009-2010 Starter, on the roster |
| Cap Space | Following the mid-season trade of Jalen Rose [to New York] |
——————————-
PLEASE NOTE: For the benefit of those keeping track of such things, ;) … on October 14 2009, the published OVER/UNDER Line on the Raptors’ Total Wins for the 2009-2010 season was 41.5 [Over/119; Under/-139]. Regular readers of this blog were then informed that any wager made on the Raptors’ Total Wins this season would most likely be an extremely dicey proposition, since it looked to these eyes that The Boys in Las Vegas had “the number” pegged just about right. As it is with most things, the passage of time is what determines just how accurate someone’s actual opinion is, when it’s offerred in advance of a specific event, rather than the viewpoints of others.
Tags: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Charlotte Bobcats, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New Jersey Nets, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards
January 8th, 2010 at 1:29 am
So what was the forecast for the Raps at the 36 game mark?
I remain optimistic at 47 wins for the Raps. (Besides, 18-18 is about where my guess would have put them.)
And, Bargs is going to have a break out 2nd half. Hedo will become more like Hedo!
Bobcats are an illusion - something like how they lost to NYN. They shouldn’t have, but they did. That team just has something wrong with it.
Not sold on Chicago having that kind of run. They’ve looked very ordinary so far. But in a weak east I guess one would have to concede them a playoff spot.
Miami hasn’t proven anything yet - soft home weighed schedule to-date. If they are still above .500 after this 6 game western road trip, then I’ll start to believe in them as a possible 5th seed.
Love those tables you use. I can never get mine to hold together?
January 14th, 2010 at 8:54 am
brothersteve,
1. I don’t recall making a forecast for the Raptors’ win total this season, except to say that I expect to see them finish somewhere in the neighbourhood of the .500 mark [i.e. 38-44 wins] … primarily because of the number of other middle-of-the-pack teams in the EC this year [i.e. Charlotte, Chicago, Toronto, Philadelphia, New York, Detroit, Washington, New Jersey and Indiana]. Of those, only New Jersey has proved to be worse than expected; while the Bucks have been the only real surprise, at least, to this point in the campaign.
2. I think you are going to be proven wrong about the Bobcats this season. Expect them to continue to improve, as the season moves along.
3. When the Bulls are not playing with a full deck this season they are not really a solid team, given their overall lack of Quality Depth.
However, when Chicago fields a healthy squad which includes 1/Rose, 2/Hinrich, 3/Deng, 4/Thomas, 5/Noah, 6/Pargo, 7/Salmons, 8/Johnson 9/Gibson and 10/Miller they are better than Toronto, IMO, despite VDN’s short-comings as a neophyte NBA head coach.
4. Miami is much tougher than you realize and will definitely earn a playoff position this season … as long as D-Wade can stay healthy.
Remove any bias from the equation and what you get is this:
STARTERS: Alston + Wade + Richardson + Beasley + O’Neal
KEY SUBS: Chalmers + Cook + Wright + Haslem + Anthony
RESERVES: Arroyo + Magloire
HEAD COACH: Spoelstra
STARTERS: Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
KEY SUBS: Jack + Belinelli + Wright + Johnson + Nesterovic
RESERVES: Weems + Evans
HEAD COACH: Triano
The Heat’s personnel is better than the Raptors’.
5. Thanks for the compliment, re: the tables.
They’re a great deal of fun to put together.