Two ships passing in the night, in Raptorville
The word “benchmark” has the following definition:
bench·mark (b
nch
märk
)
As was mentioned yesterday, last night’s contest between Toronto and Milwaukee should have been viewed by each team as a pivotal game, and an early season barometer for where their respective franchise stands in relation to the other middle-of-the-pack squads in the Eastern Conference.
Toronto Raptors 95
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 117
Complete Game Summary
By no means should the Bucks be viewed as an ideal, or even an up-and-coming, franchise in the NBA, at this point in time. Milwaukee has:
- a talented, young Starting-calibre PG
- a defensively stout young Starting-calibre SF-PF
- an all-around solid Starting-calibre C
who they can build around moving forward …
- a solid, experienced, head coach
who they can build with moving forward … and,
- a dead-weight former “franchise player”
who is no longer a major part of their team with a fairly hefty contract that is due to expire in just 2 years
- a slew of good-but-still-far-from-being-very-good back-up players on their roster
who they can use to fill in the gaps, while hoping to field a highly competitive team, on an annual basis …
and, then, prescious little more than that.
Yet, last night, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, after losing 8 of their previous 9 games … they were still able to dismantle the Raptors on the strength of [a] Brandon Jennings first-half scoring exploits, [b] solid team defense, and [c] individual offensive contributions from a host of different back-up players [e.g. Ersan Ilyasova , 17 pts; Roko Ukic, 17 pts; Carlos Delfino, 14 pts; Luke Ridnour, 15 pts].
Raptors fans who thought that their team’s recent 3-game winning streak was an authentic indication of a “righted ship”, heading toward the upper-middle region of the conference standings, sometime soon, were simply being delusional, once again.
The road victory over Washington [7-12/.368, 10th/EC] was an overtime decision that could have gone either way at the end of regulation and at the final buzzer when Gilbert Arenas inexplicably missed an open lay-up.
The road victory over Chicago [7-13/.350, 11th/EC] was a relatively meaningless encounter against an opponent that is currently in free-fall … coping with [I] debilitating injuries to 2 key rotation players, both of whom are solid defender/rebounders, at their respective positions, and [II] the loss of their leading scorer from last season [i.e. Ben Gordon, who was not retained, as an UFA, this past summer].
The home victory over Minnesota [3-19/.136; 15th/WC] was secured in the final 90 seconds, when a 3PT shot from Antoine Wright [3FG% = 30.2] found the bottom of the net to push the Raptors’ precarious lead from 2 to 5 points.
On the other hand, last night’s game against the Bucks was a different beast entirely.
The Bucks were looking ahead at their next 3 opponents … i.e. vs the Blazers, vs the Lakers and @ the Cavaliers … and not liking what they saw, at all.
The Bucks are a solid middle-of-the-pack team this season:
[Ratings as of Mon Dec 05, 2009]
|
Match-up |
PDR |
PAR |
RDR |
QR |
QIR |
|
Raptors |
20 |
29 |
17 |
66 |
23 |
|
WIZARDS |
21 |
19 |
15 |
55 |
20 |
|
Match-up |
PDR |
PAR |
RDR |
QR |
QIR |
|
Raptors |
20 |
29 |
17 |
66 |
23 |
|
BULLS |
28 |
13 |
23 |
64 |
22 |
|
Match-up |
PDR |
PAR |
RDR |
QR |
QIR |
|
T-wolves |
30 |
24 |
25 |
79 |
28 |
|
RAPTORS |
20 |
29 |
17 |
66 |
23 |
|
Match-up |
PDR |
PAR |
RDR |
QR |
QIR |
|
Raptors |
20 |
29 |
17 |
66 |
23 |
|
BUCKS |
15 |
17 |
22 |
54 |
19 |
In last night’s game, key [revealing?] stats included:
|
STATS |
Raptors |
BUCKS |
|
Points |
95 |
117 |
|
FGA |
68 |
80 |
|
TO |
13 |
9 |
|
FTA |
33 |
28 |
|
FTA * .44 |
15 |
12 |
|
Poss |
96 |
101 |
|
TSV |
181 |
209 |
|
Pts/TSV |
0.525 |
0.560 |
|
Pts/Poss |
0.990 |
1.158 |
|
Legend: FGA – Field Goal Attempts; TO – Turnovers; FTA – Free Throw Attempts; Poss – Possessions; TSV – Total Shot Value; Pts/TSV – Points per Total Shot Value; Pts/Poss – Points per Possession. |
||
When an opponent converts 3.5% more of its Total Shot Value, creates 5 more Possessions and a Points per Possession differential of 0.168, it indicates that your team was out-classed in a number of different ways.
1/4 of the way through the regular season schedule, what should now be a legit concern for the Raptors organization, and its fanbase, is what you see when you look at the following two charts; appraising [i] where these two teams were last night:
|
RAPTORS, 9th W-L, 10-14/.417 Current Streak, L1 |
Last Night Adv |
BUCKS, 6th W-L, 10-11/.476 Current Streak, W1 |
|
Starters |
||
|
Jack |
à |
Jennings |
|
DeRozan |
0 |
Delfino |
|
Turkoglu |
0 |
Mbah A Moute |
|
Nesterovic |
à |
Bogut |
|
Bosh |
ß |
Ilyasova |
|
Key Subs |
||
|
Banks |
à |
Ridnour |
|
Belinelli |
0 |
Ukic |
|
Wright |
0 |
Meeks |
|
Johnson |
0 |
Warrick |
|
Reserves |
||
|
Weems |
0 |
Bell |
|
Mensah-Bonsu |
à |
Thomas |
|
O’Bryant |
à |
Gadzuric |
|
Extras/Out |
||
|
Calderon-inj. |
ß |
Redd-inj. |
|
Evans-inj. |
ß |
Alexander |
|
Bargnani-inj. |
ß |
Elson |
|
Head Coach |
||
|
Jay Triano |
à |
Scott Skiles |
|
General Manager |
||
|
Bryan Colangelo |
0 |
John Hammond |
|
Owner |
||
|
MLSE |
0 |
Herb Kohl |
|
+4 |
Total |
+6 |
and, then, [ii] where it looks as though they might be headed in the immediate future:
|
RAPTORS, 9th W-L, 10-14/.417 Current Streak, L1 |
Future Adv |
BUCKS, 6th W-L, 10-11/.476 Current Streak, W1 |
|
Starters |
||
|
Calderon |
à |
Jennings |
|
DeRozan |
ß |
Delfino |
|
Turkoglu |
à |
Mbah A Moute |
|
Bosh [UFA, 2010] |
ß |
Ilyasova |
|
Bargnani |
0 |
Bogut |
|
Key Subs |
||
|
Jack |
0 |
Ridnour |
|
Belinelli |
0 |
Redd [UFA, 2011] |
|
Wright |
à |
Meeks |
|
Johnson |
0 |
Warrick |
|
Reserves |
||
|
Weems |
0 |
Bell |
|
Evans |
à |
Thomas |
|
Nesterovic |
à |
Gadzuric |
|
Extras/Out |
||
|
Banks |
à |
Ukic |
|
Mensah-Bonsu |
0 |
Alexander |
|
O’Bryant |
à |
Elson |
|
Head Coach |
||
|
Jay Triano |
à |
Scott Skiles |
|
General Manager |
||
|
Bryan Colangelo |
0 |
John Hammond |
|
Owner |
||
|
MLSE |
0 |
Herb Kohl |
|
+2 |
Total |
+8 |
When the 2009-2010 off-season arrives and Chris Bosh sits down to evaluate where his chances might be the best to effectively challenge for a future NBA championship, realistically, do you think that he is going to perceive the Toronto Raptors as the No. 1 place for him to accomplish this goal in the no-too-distant future?
A team which might even be considered as beneath the decidedly “average” Milwaukee Bucks on the authentic depth chart in the East this season?
The Raptors next 4 games are:
Fri Dec 11 vs Atlanta [QR = 30; QIR = 9]
Sun Dec 13 vs Houston [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Tue Dec 15 @ MIAMI [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Wed Dec 16 @ ORLANDO [QR = 17; QIR = 2]
Legend: QR – Quality Rating [PDR/Points Differential Rank + PAR/Points Allowed Rank + RDR/Rebounding Differential Rank]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [#1-30]; as of Sun Dec 06.
When assessing the relative strength of these 4 opponents, it’s imperative that the Raptors [10-14] get their act together quickly, substantially improve their Team Defense, and win their up-coming 2 home games … or, face the very real possibility of amassing another extended losing streak [i.e. a 5-gamer this time] and an inauspicious W-L Record [10-18?].
What Toronto has done so far this season is no way to go about convincing Chris Bosh that he should actually re-sign with the Raptors, as one of the premier unrestricted free agents in 2010.
To paraphrase something once said by Yogi Berra, noted philosopher 
:
“Sometimes, it really does get late early out there … in the process of pursuing one’s own UFA.”
The Raptors would do well to not forget that Life Truism this season.
Tags: Amir Johnson, Andrea Bargnani, Andrew Bogut, Antoine Wright, Brandon Jennings, Bryan Colangelo, Carlos Delfino, Charlie Bell, Chris Bosh, Dan Gadzuric, Demar DeRozan, Ersan Ilyasova, Francisco Elson, Hakeem Warrick, Hedo Turkoglu, Herb Kohl, Jarret Jack, Jay Triano, Joe Alexander, John Hammond, Jose Calderon, Kurt Thomas, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Luke Ridnour, Marco Belinelli, Marcus Banks, Milwaukee Bucks, MLSE, Patrick O'Bryant, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Rasho Nesterovic, Reggie Evans, Roko Ukic, Scott Skiles, Sonny Weems, Toronto Raptors, Yogi Berra
December 10th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
The game last night might have had a different result if the Raptors weren’t missing Calderon and Bargnani. Their production was sorely missed, and might have shifted the tide.
On a side note, I agree that the Bucks have some nice pieces to build a good team around. I am a big fan Jennings, the kid has grown on me big time.
December 10th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Raps Fan,
1. IMO, although Toronto missed Jose Calderon last night, they did not miss Andrea Bargnani … in terms of turning this L into a possible W.
Ilyasova would have had little difficulty checking Bargnani; while Andrea would have had a great deal of difficulty checking Ersan.
What really hurt the Raptors cause overall was the way in which they lost each of the other battles on the court, other than the Bosh vs Bogut match-up.
2. Personally, I am not a big fan of Brandon Jennings, as the type of PG it takes to win a league championship in the NBA, sometime down the road.
The kid has a great deal of individual “talent”, no doubt … but I still prefer a player like Chauncey Billups, or Deron Williams, or Derek Fisher, etc., at that crucial position.
December 10th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Not sure I agree that having the teams starting (Bargnani) centre would have made no difference. Pretty far out there to believe that!
And thanks for stating the obvious that you would take an accomplished all star point guard in Billups and Williams over a guy who has played 20 games in the league in Jennings. Thanks for explaining the obvious.
You are such a negative Nancy! that right, I said it! Boring read all around, and your arguments are borderline ridiculous sometimes.
December 11th, 2009 at 12:20 am
Leo,
When that Starting Center is a defensive and rebounding liability to the extent that Bargnani is then it really isn’t much of a loss at all.
re: explaining the obvious
A solid, under-rated, all-around PG with a good skill-set, and good size, like Ramon Sessions, would do just fine, as well. It’s a mistake on your part to think that only heralded players like Billups and D-Will are good enough to lead an upper echelon team to the NBA championship.
re: a negative nancy mind-set
In my experience, those with a “negative” outlook on life [in general] read the words that I write and “interpret” their meaning in a way which is considered “negative” by them.
In reality, however, there is little negativity in those words themselves … compared to what exists already in the mind and heart of that specific reader.
Likewise, if what’s said in these parts you happen to find “boring”, then, please consider this your formal invitation to spend your valuable time elsewhere.
December 11th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Hmm… I actually think Leo’s got a point, at least with respect to this particular game. I think Bargs could do a reasonable job defending Bogut, since Bogut just happens to play the ONE kind of game that Bargs CAN defend (back to bucket). Bargs does okay when he can defend a big guy that’s not particularly quick… so while I agree that Bargs would have trouble keeping a more active guy like, say, Ilyasova/Horford/Maxiell/etc off the glass, I think Bogut isn’t a terrible matchup. What say you?
@leo - if you’re going to criticize a guy for “pointing out the obvious” don’t ignore the part of the initial statement that isn’t “obvious.” (In this case, why D-Fish is in the same sentence as D-Will and Billups, both far superior individual players.)
December 11th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Scott G.,
I agree with the notion that Bargnani could have done a solid job defensively, in a 1-v-1 sense, matched-up against Andrew Bogut … at least, initially.
If Bargnani could then have played extended minutes without also picking up a series of quick fouls, against a player with Bogut’s repertoire of right and left-handed finishes around the basket it would have allowed him to stay in the game instead of being relegated to the bench … which is what happens all too frequently when he’s assigned to check a post player who has actual “moves” with his back to the basket and some touch as a legit scorer inside.
IMO, however, this aspect of the Bargnani vs Bogut match-up, in and of itself, would not have been a significant improvement over what the Raptors were actually able to get from Chris Bosh and Rasho Nesterovic and Amir Johnson [don't remember if Pops and POB had an opportunity to see the floor before the blowout started], as a group, in their defense vs the Bucks’ Starting Center.
Then, when you factor in just how bad Bargnani is defensively when working against the OTHER 4 positions on the floor, it’s really a relative “big-loss-vs-a-small-gain” situation, i.e. comparing the Negative Effect of Bargnani’s Team Defense against the supposedly Positive Effect his play has on the Raptors’ overall Team Offense.
——————————-
IMO, the reason Toronto struggled vs Milwaukee had nothing to do with the absence of Bargnani’s Defense, Offense or Rebounding.
Instead, the Raptors struggled because:
1. Calderon was out of the line-up.
2. Banks was used as the Back-up PG.
3. Wright got to play.
4. Turkoglu was handled effectively by Mbah A Moute.
5. Back-up calibre players like Delfino, Ridnour, Ukic and Ilyasova seemingly scored at-will.
6. DeRozan’s positive contributions from the 1st half were once again marginalized in the 2nd half.
7. Skiles is a better coach than Triano with a better feel for the NBA game [although Skiles is far from being an elite level coach, IMO].
If the Raptors would have used the following rotation in this game:
STARTERS
PG, Jack [vs Jennings]
OG, DeRozan [vs Delfino]
SF, Turkoglu [Mbah A Moute]
PF, Johnson [vs Ilyasova]
C, Bosh [vs Bogut]
KEY SUBS
PG, Belinelli [vs Ridnour]
OG-SF, Weems [vs Ukic or Meeks]
PF, Mensah-Bonsu [vs Warrick]
while giving major minutes to DeRozan in the 2nd half,
IMO, they c/would have stayed with Milwaukee to the last few possessions of the game.
The Raptors DO NOT need the points scored which Bargnani provides, in order to win games this season.
The Raptors ARE BEING HURT significantly by the points they’re giving up due to Bargnani’s porous defense and mediocre [although improving slightly] rebounding.
December 11th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
Ok, I see your point in terms of the other aspects of Bargs’ defensive game. BUT, note that he did NOT play, and we STILL gave up a TON of points to a slew of, as you say, backup-quality players. How much worse could it have been on that end with Bargs in the game? IMO, not much. We weren’t stopping them either way.
At the other end of the court, I think that, assuming Jose is out, Bargs’ offense IS a signficant loss. I don’t disagree that if Jose is there, we don’t need Bargs in the starting 5. I do think that in this specific game, given how good of a job LRMBaM did on Hedo, we could have used his offense.
You know I hate Bargs just as much as you do; I just think this was one game where not having him hurt.
December 11th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
Scott G.,
With Calderon out, I would have used Jack and then Belinelli at the PG spot, in an effort to boost the offensive prdoction generated from that key position … while still benefitting from the improved defense and rebounding supplied by Johnson and Mensah-Bonsu, at the PF spot, beside Bosh, at Center, back-up by Nesterovic, with DeRozan and Turkoglu on the wings, replaced exclusively by Weems [and not Mr. Wright].
Yes, Bargnani is an offensive player with a fair degree of talent but he almost always comes with major deficiencies in terms of rebounding and team defense.
e.g. In watching tonight’s game … Bargnani has already scored 8 points but it would take me both hands to count the number of rebounds and points he has already cost the Raptors, in return, as the 1st quarter has now come to an end.
December 11th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
As much as I hate to say it …
At the 7:37 mark of the 2nd quarter, this game is effectively over.
Atlanta 48
TORONTO 35
December 12th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Ok — I think you’re missing my point — I’m not saying that Bargnani isn’t costing the Raps board, stops, etc., in comparison with what they’d get from a good all-around player at that position. Here’s my point — while I agree that Amir is a good rebounder and reasonable defender, I think PMB is actually fairly poor in both areas.
The raps gave up 115+ to the BUCKS, with the “improved defensive and rebounding” unit in play. I don’t think that’s any better than they would have done with Bargs in the game. And, I think Bargs’ presence would have added points on the offensive end.
Lastly, I commented yesterday that I’d agree that against a more active player (specifically naming Horford), Bargs would struggle more. So all those boards that Bargs was giving up against the active front line of ATL may not have been conceded against the slower C/PF combo of MIL.
I’ll stop defending the guy now, since it was just that specific game that I had in mind. Didn’t even watch the raps game last night…. opted for Magic-Suns when I got off work, and don’t regret the decision