What the Raptors SHOULD do right NOW to improve their performance against High End opponents
ONE VIABLE OPTION FOR THE RAPTORS
Toronto has chosen to start games with the following 5-man unit:
STARTING 5
PG/Calderon + OG/DeRozan + SF/Turkoglu + PF/Bosh + C/Bargnani
… and to finish games with the following 5-man unit:
CLOSING 5
PG/Calderon + OG/Jack + SF/Turkoglu + PF/Bosh + C/Bargnani.
These two decisions have made a significant contribution toward the Raptors’ struggles against the High End teams they’ve faced thus far.
Toronto Raptors Individual Season Stats
Toronto Raptors 82games.com Stats
Current STARTING 5
|
Effectiveness |
Stat Category |
PG Calderon |
OG DeRozan |
SF Turkoglu |
PF Bosh |
C Bargnani |
TOTAL+ |
|
Rebounder
|
R/MP |
0.069 |
0.154 |
0.139 |
0.342 |
0.199 |
2 |
|
Defender
|
Net PER |
-5.4 |
-6.0 |
+2.0 |
+23.4 |
-3.4 |
2 |
|
|
3FG% |
34.0 |
40.0 |
39.8 |
60.0 |
41.0 |
4 |
|
|
CFGM/MP |
1.300 |
1.538 |
0.607 |
2.833 |
1.416 |
2 |
|
Ball-handler
|
Ast:TO |
6.4:1.79 |
0.7:1.0 |
3.9:2.3 |
1.6:1.89 |
1.1:1.74 |
2 |
Improved STARTING 5
|
Effectiveness |
Stat Category |
PG Calderon |
OG DeRozan |
SF Turkoglu |
PF Johnson |
C Bosh |
TOTAL+ |
|
Rebounder
|
R/MP |
0.069 |
0.154 |
0.139 |
0.295 |
0.342 |
3 |
|
Defender
|
Net PER |
-5.4 |
-6.0 |
+2.0 |
+18.4 |
+23.4 |
3 |
|
|
3FG% |
34.0 |
40.0 |
39.8 |
00.0 |
60.0 |
3 |
|
|
CFGM/MP |
1.300 |
1.538 |
0.607 |
2.139 |
2.833 |
3 |
|
Ball-handler
|
Ast:TO |
6.4:1.79 |
0.7:1.0 |
3.9:2.3 |
0.4:0.79 |
1.6:1.89 |
2 |
Legend: R/MP – Rebounds Per Minute Played; PER – Player Efficiency Rating; 3FG - 3PT Field Goal; FGM-FGA – Field Goals Made-Field Goal Attempts; Ast:TO – Assist to Turnover ratio; CFGM/MP – Close Field Goals Made Per Minute Played; Light Grey Shade – Less Total Pluses [+’s]; Dark Grey Shade – More Total Pluses [+’s]; Medium Grey Shade – Plus [+] Player at this position.
Using Amir Johnson [PF], instead of Andrea Bargnani [C], would be a “net positive” for the Raptors, based on his superior Rebounding, Defending and Interior Scoring ability.
Current CLOSING 5
|
Effectiveness |
Stat Category |
PG Calderon |
OG Jack |
SF Turkoglu |
PF Bosh |
C Bargnani |
TOTAL+ |
|
Rebounder
|
R/MP |
0.069 |
0.073 |
0.139 |
0.342 |
0.199 |
1 |
|
Defender
|
Net PER |
-5.4 |
-8.7 |
+2.0 |
+23.4 |
-4.8 |
2 |
|
|
3FG% |
34.0 |
35.8 |
39.8 |
60.0 |
41.0 |
3 |
|
|
CFGM/MP |
1.300 |
1.129 |
0.607 |
2.833 |
1.416 |
1 |
|
Ball-handler
|
Ast:TO |
6.4:1.79 |
3.5:1.63 |
3.9:2.3 |
1.6:1.89 |
1.1:1.74 |
3 |
Improved CLOSING 5
|
Effectiveness |
Stat Category |
PG Calderon |
OG DeRozan |
SF Turkoglu |
PF Johnson |
C Bosh |
TOTAL+ |
|
Rebounder
|
R/MP |
0.069 |
0.154 |
0.139 |
0.295 |
0.342 |
3 |
|
Defender
|
Net PER |
-5.4 |
-6.0 |
+2.0 |
+18.4 |
+23.4 |
3 |
|
|
3FG% |
34.0 |
40.0 |
39.8 |
00.0 |
60.0 |
3 |
|
|
CFGM/MP |
1.300 |
1.538 |
0.607 |
2.139 |
2.833 |
3 |
|
Ball-handler
|
Ast:TO |
6.4:1.79 |
0.7:1.0 |
3.9:2.3 |
0.4:0.79 |
1.6:1.89 |
2 |
Legend: R/MP – Rebounds Per Minute Played; PER – Player Efficiency Rating; 3FG - 3PT Field Goal; FGM-FGA – Field Goals Made-Field Goal Attempts; Ast:TO – Assist to Turnover ratio; CFGM/MP – Close Field Goals Made Per Minute Played; Light Grey Shade – Less Total Pluses [+’s]; Dark Grey Shade – More Total Pluses [+’s]; Medium Grey Shade – Plus [+] Player at this position.
Using Amir Johnson [PF], instead of Andrea Bargnani [C], would be a “net positive” for the Raptors, based on his superior Rebounding, Defending and Interior Scoring ability.
Using DeMar DeRozan [OG], instead of Jarrett Jack [OG], would be a “net positive” for the Raptors, based on his superior Rebounding, Defending and Interior scoring ability.
———————————————————
The time for “babying” Andrea Bargnani [i.e. by giving him extended minutes] has long since passed … if he cannot play effectively as a Center SHOULD in the NBA.
The time for “babying” DeMar DeRozan [i.e. by limiting his minutes played, as a rookie in the NBA] is now over … despite the fact that he is not a good defensive player … since, he is the Raptors’ best Off Guard, by a wide margin.
Making these three [3] role adjustments … i.e. using 1 new player in their STARTING 5 and using 2 new players in their CLOSING 5 … would allow the Raptors to compete with High End opponents for 48 minutes by:
1. Providing better balance between their 1st and 2nd units … i.e.
1st unit
Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu [Off focus] + Johnson + Bosh [Off focus]
2nd unit
Jack + Belinelli [Off focus] + Wright/Weems + Mensah-Bonsu/Evans + Bargnani [Off focus]; and,
2. Decreasing their reliance on perimeter jump-shots, while Increasing their ability to Rebound, Defend and Score Inside the Paint.
Tags: Amir Johnson, Andrea Bargnani, Antoine Wright, Chris Bosh, Demar DeRozan, Hedo Turkoglu, Jarrett Jack, Jose Calderon, Marco Belinelli, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Rasho Nesterovic, Reggie Evans, Sonny Weems, Toronto Raptors
December 2nd, 2009 at 4:38 pm
I agree with all of this — what do you think of the point raised by Dave on his blog that reducing Bargs’ minutes would negatively impact his trade value pretty severely? I think it has merit, since paying your backup C 10M/y is not something that leaves lots of options — he’s GOT to go, and we may need to keep him on “display” if we hope to get any value in return.
December 2nd, 2009 at 7:51 pm
Scott G.,
Have a look at the feedback I left for Dave on his site, re: the best possible way to showcase a “talent” like A-Bargnani.
December 3rd, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Trade Bosh. Watch everyone else improve when we start playing TEAM basketball and not one on one. Throw Wright in that trade mix as well.
December 3rd, 2009 at 1:14 pm
not sure what khan left as a comment to dave, but the reality is, bargs is a practical impossibility to move this year, due to his contract status (poison pill provision) & the fact that his abilities & weaknesses are well-known across the league at this point. if used in the proper role, his value will naturally increase, and perhaps down the road (i.e. starting next season), he may have some trade value.
December 3rd, 2009 at 1:14 pm
eric smith was asked point blank a week ago or so what he would do to the starting five. he demurred and turned the question back on the caller. the caller said he’d swap out barg for Amir. Eric disagreed.
i point this out because of how disgusted i am with the sportscasting ‘talent’ we have to endure during games. these guys just dont get it. and if they’re the ones explaining this team to less-than-hardcore fans, the impression they giev is that bargnani is in fact an effective player.
i almost wish bargs would just get injured, or go into a prolonged scoring drought so he’d get benched. his point production is a total red herring. playing him and turk is a nightmare. and his role as our 5 gimps us so severley that i cringe when i see him on the floor.
khandor, i think it’s critical that guys like you and rapsrepublic continue to hammer home objective analysis and insight so that we can build some kind of momentum to jettison the charlatan that is BC, the travesty of a coach that is JT and the utter failure that is our starting center.
where are the people that were so derisive of Rob Babcock now? why aren’t they pointing out that BC hasn’t delivered anything at all to Raps fans since his arrival, aside from inheriting probably the best, most open ended potential of any sports franchise. #1 pick, cap space and a rising talent in the 4.
sigh. i’m thoroughly disgusted with this team and have been for a couple years now. and doubling the grotesqueness of the team itself is the sickening blather of eric smith/matt devlin/paul jones/ leo rautins .
sorry for the rant. i’m just so totally ill about all this.
December 3rd, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Brilliant post khandor. I 100% agree. We do have pieces to create *some* balance to the lineups.
yertu - I agree with Dave’s point - there will always be a few GMs that covet a 7 footer with a great shot.
December 3rd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
PM,
1. Welcome aboard!
2. IMO, trading Chris Bosh is not the correct answer to the Raptors’ current set of defensive problems.
Trading a team’s best player, who has been nothing but loyal to the organization since his arrival 6 years ago, is something which a low-class franchise would choose to do, in a haphazard attempt to go forward from here.
Instead of simply “wheeling-and-dealing” … once again … what Bryan Colangelo NEEDS to do is RE-THINK his Basketball Philosophy and take a much more comprehensive approach to proper team building than he’s demonstrated to this point in his professional career.
He can actually fix the mess which he’s created, here … but, he’s going to first need a different type of voice in his “inner circle” than he’s had before.
[Hint: A very good place to start ... similar to singing Do-Re-Mi ... would be to simply instruct his current head coach to actually reply to each and every one of the different emails he's been sent, by his friends and acquaintances in the basketball community, since assuming his position as the man in charge full-time with this team. The Right Answers to your problems in Life can sometimes be found in the most unusual places, provided you are someone who actually takes the time to look there, in the first place. :-)]
December 3rd, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Khandor, you BBall acumen is sky-high those days!
So, lets agree to a principle: if a player is supposed to play at PG, the stat you need to use to evaluate him are the stat WHEN he play as PG.
Even if one time he play SF, if you want him to play PG you will rate him with his own PG stat .
is it fair ? I think yes
So, Khandor
even if your BBall acumen is rocketing
… your math and logic skill remain at kindergarden at best.
That is just for being nice to you otherwise I can demonstrate you have an hidden ( not so..) agenda….
So, what you did ?
Simple , you use the stat you need to demonstrate your point.
So, you take AMIR NET PER stat when he was “reported” as C, that is +19.7 at this time and you mix it with his -1.3 as PF.
so, you : don’t take in account the fact that AMIR will play PF in your suggestiion, don’t take in account that the time in which Amir play PF is much more of the time he play C. So, TWO mistake in one, that happen to change the picture in the direction you want
but, there is more…
because you made the same logic to AB, mixing his NET PER as C of +1.4 with his NET PER as PF of -4.8
that, incidentally, is also going in your desired direction.
Last, don’t tell anybody that CB4 because he shoot 60 % from 3 can be called a perimeter shooter.
December 3rd, 2009 at 3:03 pm
yertu,
If history has taught us anything, at all … it’s that NOTHING is ever truly impossible!
PS. If in doubt, simply reference the likes of: David [and Goliath], Hannibal, Michael Corleone, and Ubunto/Kevin Garnett.
December 3rd, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Mauro,
FYI …
When someone like ME makes what YOU think might be a “mistake”, I suggest YOU ask yourself the following question, first, before you simply assume that what I wrote wasn’t, in fact, written that express way for a specific reason.
If you do … and then spend some more time trying to actually figure out on your own what it is that I’ve actually done here, with these specific numbers and where exactly it is that I’ve gotten them from … it will save both of us - and, perhaps, countless others, as well - a considerable amount of time, energy and resources.
[Hint: Take another look at those numbers from 82games.com and see if you can figure things out for yourself. If you can't ascertain what exactly I did, in this instance, then try asking me another follow-up question, instead of critiquing what I've written without understanding it thoroughly, in the first place. Btw ... you should know ME better than that by this point.
]
Cheers
December 3rd, 2009 at 3:13 pm
cb,
1. Welcome aboard!
2. There’s no need for you to apologize to anyone here concerning those observations.
3. Keep On Truck’n
December 3rd, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Mauro,
Okay … so that you don’t go away totally scratching your head about what I just wrote there:
re: “So, lets agree to a principle: if a player is supposed to play at PG, the stat you need to use to evaluate him are the stat WHEN he play as PG.”
No … actually … and , despite what you might think about it … we cannot even agree about this most fundamental of principles, concerning the proper use of the stats provided by a site like 82games.com.
Q1. How come?
A1. Because sites like these DO NOT share a common philosophy when it comes to listing the positions accurately at which specific players are in fact used in games by their respective teams.
Trying to use the statistical information that’s found there … which never ever lies, right? … involves a type of “mixing and matching” that even someone like Ernest Rutherford [or Jeff Van Gundy, who just loves how individual match-ups actual work in the NBA game] might be proud of.
Instead of just blindly reading and accepting what the data says at 82games.com try your best to pick out what actually makes the most sense to you from a Basketball Acumen standpoint.
e.g. If Bargnani is listed as playing both Center and Power Forward this season for the Raptors, then, should not the best measure of his PER, as a Big, come from adding his respective totals together, since his main “difficulty” is that he cannot play effective defense, regardless of the specific check he has on any given possession. Now, please see if you can figure out on your own where I’ve derived the other numbers from that you can see with your own eyes do not match exactly with what you can see at 82games.com. And, please try your best not to be totally upset with me for being purposely obtuse about this. Afterall, I’m not really angry with you either.
December 3rd, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Tom L,
As always, your feedback is very much appreciated.
December 3rd, 2009 at 6:32 pm
khan - true enough, anything is possible. last i checked though, none of those guys were dealt during the PPP period of their career…
December 3rd, 2009 at 7:03 pm
yertu,
Although completing a trade for Bargnani certainly won’t be easy …
It does sorta make one wonder, what exactly “David, Hannibal and Michael Corleone” each might have fetched on the open market … with a hiddeus kicker like the PPP thrown in for good measure?
[perhaps, something like:
i. "Hercules + Samson";
]
ii. "Julius Caesar + Alexander The Great"; and,
iii. "Al Capone + Tony Soprano".
If a trader is truly prepared to get back only cents on the dollar …
for example:
Kevin Garnett [Boston], plus extras for Big Al, R-Gomes, S-Telfair + Picks
Marcus Camby [Denver] for ? [LA Clippers]
Shaquille O’Neal [Phoenix] for Sasha Pavlovic and Ben Wallace
Zach Randolph [New York] for Dako Milicic [Memphis]
Alonzo Mourning, plus extras [New Jersey] for Wince Carter [Toronto]
Lew Alcindor [Milwaukee] for ? [LA Lakers]
then, there really should be no doubt that each and every player in the NBA, at a given point in time, is in fact “tradeable”, in one form or another.
=========================
PS. Btw … Have you been following the exploits of this young man this season with his new team?