khandor’s sports blog

19 Responses to “Where the Raptors rate right now, compared to the best teams in the NBA”

1. MC_B-rad Says:
   November 17th, 2009 at 11:14 am

   not lookin to dispute your statistical analysis, but given your “acumen”, have you seen overall improvement in the teams play over the past 3-4 games (possibly skewing stats to look worse than the teams play, specifically on the defensive end). Would you state that improvement might be reason for some optimism?

2. khandor Says:
   November 17th, 2009 at 12:15 pm

   MCBR,

   When you get right down to the nitty-gritty … here’s the rub:

   1. Nothing in the NBA ever happens in a vacuum.

   i.e. as some teams get better in specific areas so, too, do some of their competitors

   2. Yes, the Raptors have improved defensively in their recent games vs the Bulls [2nd half], Clippers [2nd half] and Suns [high octane team] … but:

   i. This improvement exists primarily when measured against their own previous performance and not necessarily against the better/best teams in the league whose style of play gives the Raptors problems;

   ii. This improvement only becomes truly meaningful if it can be reproduced consistently against the likes of:

   Portland, Boston, Milwaukee, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, Cleveland [when they don't use Shaq and Z simultaneously], Charlotte, Detroit [when they're not in a back-2-back], Orlando, Chicago [when they're not in a back-2-back], Indiana, Utah, LA Lakers, Denver, San Antonio, Washington, Houston and Philadelphia

   each of which is a better defensive/rebounding team than the Raptors at-present.

3. khandor Says:
   November 17th, 2009 at 12:34 pm

   MCBR,

   What I have liked from the beginning of the 2nd half of the game vs Chicago is the decision made by the coaching staff to Switch vs Big-on-Little picks, as opposed to Hedging & Recovering.

   This adjustment alone will help the Raptors on the defensive side of the ball, as it’s a better fit with their overall personnel.

   In addition:

   - DeRozan will need to play more as the year proceeds
   - Turkoglu and Bargnani will need to Defend and Rebound better

   if the Raptors are going to secure a playoff position this season.

4. TGM Says:
   November 17th, 2009 at 1:11 pm

   Does this account for SoS? Given that Portland and Milwaukee are at the top makes me believe not.

5. khandor Says:
   November 17th, 2009 at 1:20 pm

   TGM,

   Welcome aboard!

   SoS is not accounted for in these measures.

   These measures are accumulative throughout the season.

6. TGM Says:
   November 17th, 2009 at 1:27 pm

   Thanks, this has always been one of the most interesting blogs(though frustrating at times :D)

   Anyways, doesn’t that make this skewed towards the easier schedules this early in the season(looking at Milwaukee especially with a pathetic .430 SOS). Mainly in the points allowed and point differential cathegories?

7. khandor Says:
   November 17th, 2009 at 1:39 pm

   TGM,

   re: Milwaukee

   ————————————————

   October Opponent Result
   Fri 30 @ Philadelphia L 86-99
   Sat 31 vs Detroit W 96-85
   November Opponent Result
   Tue 03 @ Chicago L 81-83
   Fri 06 @ Minnesota W 87-72
   Sat 07 vs New York W 102-87
   Wed 11 vs Denver W 108-102
   Sat 14 vs Golden State W 129-125
   Mon 16 vs Dallas L 113-115

   ————————————————

   re: Portland

   October Opponent Result
   Tue 27 vs Houston W 96-87
   Thu 29 vs Denver L 94-97
   Sat 31 @ Houston L 107-111
   November Opponent Result
   Sun 01 @ Oklahoma City W 83-74
   Tue 03 vs Atlanta L 91-97
   Fri 06 vs San Antonio W 96-84
   Sun 08 vs Minnesota W 116-93
   Tue 10 @ Memphis W 93-79
   Wed 11 @ Minnesota W 107-84
   Fri 13 @ New Orleans W 86-78
   Sat 14 @ Charlotte W 80-74
   Mon 16 @ Atlanta L 95-99

   ————————————————

   re: “doesn’t that make this skewed towards the easier schedules this early in the season(looking at Milwaukee especially with a pathetic .430 SOS). Mainly in the points allowed and point differential cathegories?”

   Yes, it does.

   IMO, a team’s Defensive and Rebounding performance tends to be more consistent, relative to the changing calibre of its opponents, compared with Offensive output.

   You should expect to some change as the season unfolds, particularly as some teams regain the services of players that have been injured to this point.

   Still, without drastic personnel changes taking place within a season, a specific team’s “style of play” is frequently established quite early in the schedule.

8. MC_B-rad Says:
   November 17th, 2009 at 1:41 pm

   I will agree when i first saw caldy guarding a big, i was like WTF, but it seems like it could work…as long as it is used with other defensive schemes obviosuly

9. TGM Says:
   November 17th, 2009 at 1:47 pm

   I didn’t mention the rebounding for that reason(we will be aweful at it this year), I only mentioned Points differential and points allowed(why not DRTG or eFG against?).
   Nor do I think they’re bad teams at all, simply not 2 of the best 3 teams in the league. We wud likely have a better record with Milwaukee’s schedule.

10. khandor Says:
    November 17th, 2009 at 1:51 pm

    MCBR,

    The worst P & R/P defensive scheme for the Raptors to use, since Bargnani’s PT was increased 2 seasons ago, is the Hedge & Recover … given Calderon’s defensive limitations. By contrast:

    - Switching
    - Fighting
    - Trapping

    have always been the best/better options for them to use.

11. khandor Says:
    November 17th, 2009 at 1:55 pm

    TGM,

    re: (why not DRTG or eFG against?)

    IMO, neither measure is specific enough.

    =======================================

    re: Nor do I think they’re bad teams at all, simply not 2 of the best 3 teams in the league.

    Agreed, on Milwuakee.

    Disagree, slightly, on Portland.

    When the Blazers are healthy, they’re a top team this season; not NBA title-ready yet but, definitely, in the 2nd tier of teams.

    =======================================

    re: We wud likely have a better record with Milwaukee’s schedule.

    IMO …

    Given the Buck’s schedule to-date:

    October Opponent Result
    Fri 30 @ Philadelphia L 86-99 … Raps would have Lost, 0-1
    Sat 31 vs Detroit W 96-85 … Raps would have Won, 1-1
    November Opponent Result
    Tue 03 @ Chicago L 81-83 … Raps would have Lost, 1-2
    Fri 06 @ Minnesota W 87-72 … Raps would have Won, 2-2
    Sat 07 vs New York W 102-87 … Raps would have Won, 3-2
    Wed 11 vs Denver W 108-102 … Raps would have Lost, 3-3
    Sat 14 vs Golden State W 129-125 … Raps would have Won, 4-3
    Mon 16 vs Dallas L 113-115 … Raps would have Lost, 4-4

12. brothersteve Says:
    November 17th, 2009 at 4:47 pm

    There were 6 “contending” teams to start the season and there is little reason to change that 10 games in. Might add or subtract someone after 20.

    Nope, the Raptors were not on that list. And were not expected to be there this season.

    But I’m still saying they make the playoffs and have a good year.

    I’ll be looking for your update at the 1/4 mark of the season!

13. TGM Says:
    November 17th, 2009 at 6:16 pm

    Re:khandor

    is points allowed pace adjusted?

    ———————————————–

    I won’t speculate too much on how we’d do with Milwaukee’s schedule but I think we’d be 5-3. It’s guesswork though as is your speculation.

    ————————————————

    I agree with Brothersteve we’d know more after 20 games. It looks too dependant on matchups after only 10 games. (apart from rebounding of course)

14. Mike D Says:
    November 17th, 2009 at 8:28 pm

    Hey Khandor,

    Nice work as always. 25th is a touch low though, regardless of what the crunching of the stats indicates.

    My main comment is this: I’ve noticed a common theme throughout your work seems to be that Bargnani is a detriment to the team due to his inability to rebound the ball and play in the paint. This thought - which I heard here first - has been getting some burn from guys like Oakley (re: Feschuk article about winning with 7 footers at the 3 point line) and others lately. It is counterintuitive to popular opinion, which suggests that because Bargs’ offensive game has made huge strides, he needs more touches.

    In my humble, I think you need to make the case for why Bargnani should move to the bench in greater detail. I know you’ve stated it in bits and pieces before over the course of several articles, but I wasn’t really ready to listen to it at that point (as I’m sure many others weren’t). If you get the chance some point this season, I’d like to see you do an exculsive post on exactly why Bargs HAS to move to the bench. I remember you did some sort of a 5-part post on the Hedo deal back in the summer. Perhaps something along similar lines to counter what the Raptor nation is constantly spoonfed is in order.

15. khandor Says:
    November 18th, 2009 at 6:55 pm

    brothersteve,

    In all likelihood, there will be no update, per se, coming from me at the 20 game mark this year, re: the Raptors’ prospects for making the playoffs this season.

    As I’ve said before …

    IMO, this year’s race for the last few playoff seeds in the EC is going to be very close between a whole slew of teams and I simply do not make “specific predictions” which I don’t believe have a fairly strong likelihood of coming true.

    Conversely, when I think I’ve got a strong hold on something that others might not yet realize fully that’s when you will see me “make a call” about the eventual outcome of a specific set of circumstances.

    e.g. Exhibit A - In this evening’s slate of NHL games, I would recommend that those who might be interested in such things place their money on the Detroit Red Wings/-163. Exhibit B - When Chauncey Billups was acquired by the Raptors, I said that he was the type of PG who they should have retained at all costs because he was someone with the capacity to lead his team to an NBA championship, as a mainframe PG. Exhibit C - Prior to the start of the 2009-2010 regular season, from the teams in this year’s NBA Eastern Conference, I would have recommend that 5 specific ones were likely to be virtual “locks” to qualify for the playoffs this season: i. Orlando, ii. Boston, iii. Cleveland, iv. Atlanta and v. Miami … but not necessarily in that order or in the first 5 positions.

    What the record shows, in this regard, is that … when I make a “specific prediction”, in advance, there’s a pretty fair chance of things playing out in that exact way.

16. khandor Says:
    November 18th, 2009 at 11:56 pm

    TGM,

    1. Points Allowed is not adjusted for pace.

    2. There’s a big difference between educated guess-work and simple [non-educated] guess-work.

    3. Success or failure the NBA game is always predicated upon match-ups.

17. khandor Says:
    November 19th, 2009 at 12:28 am

    Mike D,

    1. re: #25 being a touch too low right now

    As the saying goes …

    The numbers are what the numbers are.

    2. Bargnani is only a detriment to the successful performance of the team if he continues to get major minutes [e.g. 30+], as the principal Center:

    i. rebounding the way he has to this point;
    ii. providing the poor transition D he has shown to this point;
    iii. providing poor individual D in Switch situations he has shown to this point;
    iv. providing the poor individual D in P & R/P situations he has shown to this point;
    v. providing the poor team D in help situations he has shown to this point;
    vi. providing the poor low-post scoring he has shown to this point; and,
    vii. providing the relative few FTA’s per game he has shown to this point;

    even though he also happens to be:

    i. a solid “stand-still 3-PT catch and shoot” Center;
    ii. a developing “catch, shot fake, drive right and finish at the rim” Center;
    iii. a developing “catch, shot fake, drive left, 1 dribble pull-up jump-shot” Center;
    iv. a developing “low-post scorer vs smaller defensive checks”;
    v. a developing “low-post defender vs power-based Bigs”; and,
    v. a developing shot-blocker.

    3. If the “collateral material” from others presents itself at some point this season, I will try to put together the type of comprehensive explanation you are looking for, re: Bargnani and his proper role coming off the bench for the Raptors.

18. Mike D Says:
    November 19th, 2009 at 8:29 pm

    Thanks for this - detailed and succinct. I didn’t like the Bargnani signing because of the amount of money involved and the number of years, but I’m trying to find a way to tolerate it based on the fact that he’ll be here for the next half decade. Your reply does beg a couple of questions on my end -

    a) Who (in the organization) would you use as the starting center? Do you think that we have anybody who could do a better job than Bargs has done at the position, or would you simply name the starter on a game by game basis according to the matchups that present themselves?

    b) Regarding the Bargnani negatives you’ve listed - it is hard to quantify how badly his shortcomings are impacting the team. Obviously there is a significant impact, but just how bad do you think it is? Can we not consistently win with the guy based on our current roster?

    c) What do you think his ceiling is? He still seems like a developing player to me, and his offensive upside seems like it could be quite high. In your opinion, does he have a ceiling higher than Okur’s? Will he ever be able to develop the desire/technique required to be a dominant rebounder at this level?

    Congrats on the work you’ve been doing here as of late. It seems like many of your offseason predictions are coming to fruition and hostile ears are starting to open. Since football is my main game, I appreciate having the opportunity to actually learn something about basketball whenever I visit this site. Additionally, I can no longer take the excuse-making and apologizers surrounding this team elsewhere on the web.

19. khandor Says:
    November 21st, 2009 at 12:22 pm

    Mike D,

    In the NBA game, there are many different ways to play the Center position successfully.

    Each one, however, involves being able to:

    #1. Rebound effectively;
    #2. Defend effectively; and,
    #3. Facilitate your team’s Offense effectively.

    Chris Bosh should be playing Center for the Toronto Raptors.

    The only situation in which Chris Bosh struggles … as a Center, in the NBA … is 1-on-1, Low-post Defense vs [i] an “over-sized” behemoth like Shaquille O’Neal [who is a most unique player in the history of the league] and [ii] an exceptionally agile, power-based player like Nene.

    In those two specific match-ups:

    i. Bosh’s strength [quickness] and weakness [physical size] is off-set by O’Neal’s strength [physical size] and weakness [lack of quickness]. If the game is played at a fast pace, however, Shaq has zero chance of staying in the game vs Chris, who will simply foul him out on face-up drives to the basket; while Chris can, in fact, stay in the game and succeed against Shaq, if he’s allowed to behind Shaq to begin with and then gets help with Cover Downs and Double Teams, etc., from his teammates.

    ii. A. On Offense. Bosh needs to be paired with an under-sized PF who can: I. post-up on the low block effectively when Chris takes his individual game to the High-post vs a super athletic Big like Nene; II. Rebound the weak side of the floor; and, III. Take his check off the bounce from the perimeter, and/or make mid-range jumpshots, if the opposition tries to play its “bigger” front-court player vs him, instead of vs CB4. B. On Defense. Chris can succeed if he’s allowed to behind Nene to begin with and then gets help with Cover Downs and Double Teams, etc., from his teammates. [e.g. an under-sized PF like Paul Millsap would be very good to pair with Chris Bosh/C.]

    ——————————————————–

    Yes, the team can win some games vs quality opponents with

    Andrea Bargnani, C
    Chris Bosh, PF
    Hedo Turkoglu, SF
    DeMar DeRozan, OG
    Jose Calderon, PG

    but its Defense is simply not going to be consistent enough to ever really be considered as a “legitimate contender” in the NBA.

    CENTER
    Bargnani lacks quickness, agility, explosive athleticism and is not a hard worker.
    Bargnani’s Transition Defense is poor.
    Bargnani’s Switch Defense is poor. [i.e. he can ONLY check Centers]
    Bargnani’s Help [Rotational] Defense is poor.
    Bargnani’s Overall Defensive Awareness is poor.

    POWER FORWARD
    Bosh lacks quickness, agility and explosive athleticism when he has to play this position, compared with Center.

    SMALL FORWARD
    Turkoglu lacks quickness, agility, explosive athleticism and is not a hard worker.
    Turkoglu’s Transition Defense is poor.
    Turkoglu’s Help [Rotational] Defense is poor.

    OFF GUARD
    DeRozan’s Overall Defensive Awareness is poor, right now; but, he is going to get much better as he continues to mature.

    POINT GUARD
    Calderon’s short-coming is in Pick and Roll/Pop situations, when he: i. Isn’t allowed to Switch; ii. Has to work with a Big who is a poor Picker’s Defender [e.g. Bargnani]; and, iii. Isn’t allowed to Trap the ball-handler with the Picker’s Defender.

    ——————————————————–

    Yes, Bargnani’s ceiling is higher than Okur’s.

    In all likelihood Bargnani will never develop into a dominant rebounder.

    If a team wants to go with Bargnani at Center AND try to win a championship what it will also NEED to do is:

    * Commit to becoming a DEFENSIVE and REBOUNDING focused operation;

    * By putting at least 3 competent-to-very good defensive players on the court with him, with the 4th player being someone who can score the ball in the Low-post … ala Mark Aguirre or James Budda Edwards, who provided this service for the Bad Boyz of Bill Laimbeer and Isiah Thomas.

    Running at a pace which involves a high number of possessions per game is a recipe for losing games vs quality opponents with a Center like Bargnani [and Laimbeer].

    Plodding at a slow pace is the way to go, if your team REALLY wants to become a “legitimate contender” one day down the road.

    ——————————————————-

    Thanks for the kind words, re: the correctness of my perceptions/insights which are not always received well by some Raptors fans.

    Football is a great sport, as well, which I happen to follow closely.

Leave a Reply

Name (required)

Mail (will not be published) (required)

Website