khandor’s sports blog

18 Responses to “How the Raptors could improve from within, right away”

1. Scott G Says:
   November 13th, 2009 at 4:53 pm

   Please send this directly to BC!

   The benching of DD has really puzzled me, since he’s brought energy to almost every game, provides sorely needed rebounding help from an unlikely position, and has actually proven to be a solid perimeter shooter. No doubt, his game has a long way to go in terms of defending within the team concept, as well as creating his own shot off the dribble, but he’s already light years ahead of any other 2 we have, IMO.

   I’m not sure who listed him at 6-7, 220, but there is no way he’s that big. I’m guessing 6-5, 210, which is still fine size for an SG with his athleticism. He’d be a monster at 6-7, 220…

   Wright started off nicely, providing hustle and defense, but somehow that has given way to a propensity to hoist bad shots at an alarming rate. If he could stay within his role more consistently, I think he could help us at the 2. We have far too many undersized perimeter players, and only 1 true 3-man. Interesting that you’d go so far as to use Weems in that spot… I haven’t seen enough to argue with you, and he’s certainly the best candidate from an athletic standpoint (albeit a couple inches and pounds small).

   Going to the game at staples tonight… go Raps!

2. khandor Says:
   November 13th, 2009 at 5:56 pm

   Scott G.,

   re: Please send this directly to BC!

   Alas, and unfortunately, the individual who I happen to know best with immediate influence over these precise matters has, instead, chosen to not reply back to my emails, thus far.

   Hopefully, in the not-too-distant future, this situation might no longer be the case.

   Time will tell.

   ——————————————————–

   Speaking of games at Staples Center …

   A quick aside, related to “Homes for Hoop” in SoCal.

   One of my fondest memories is actually stepping onto the floor of Pauley Pavillion for the first and only time to play a little pick-up ball during my first visit to lotusland.

   Nothing special really … just me and a few local cats playing up to a set number on a weekday afternoon in the middle of July.

   Imagine that, however … l’il ole me, stepping out on the exact same floor to ball, once used by the likes of John Wooden, Lewis Alcindor/Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Walt Hazzard, Gail Goodrich, Mike Warren, Bill Walton, Keith/Jamaal Wilkes, Dave Myers, Richard Washington, Marquis Johnson, Mike Saunders, et al. … talk about a once-in-a-lifetime dream come true.

   Enjoy tonight’s festivities, in LA, against the remnants of my original favourite pro hoops team, i.e. the old Buffalo Braves of Dr. Jack Ramsay, Jack Marin, Bob Weiss, Bob Kauffman, Ernie D, Jim McMillian, Garfield Heard, Randy Smith and Bob McAdoo … and, please excuse the fact that I won’t be cheering extra hard for the Dinos to triumph this evening.

3. Tom L Says:
   November 13th, 2009 at 9:06 pm

   khandor - great post. I was wondering about Wright as well - as per Scott’s comments “Wright started off nicely, providing hustle and defense, but somehow that has given way to a propensity to hoist bad shots at an alarming rate. If he could stay within his role more consistently, I think he could help us at the 2.”

   I feel the same way - IF he stays within that role - your thoughts?

   BTW, cool story re: Pauley Pavillion

4. Brain Colangelo Says:
   November 14th, 2009 at 3:48 pm

   Don’t the #s show that the usual starting unit of both bosh and bargnani is a good one? Isn’t that also the only unit with a large sample size? Unless you think that the numbers lie, which you have not shown in your analysis, there’s no reason to demote Bargnani (and make no mistake that what you propose would be a demotion). I posted on your site that Bosh and Bargnani should play apart as much as possible and I like the big man rotations that Jay has used so far, giving Bargnani lots of time with Belinelli as the scorers on the 2nd unit.

   I’d like to see more of DeRozan with the 2nd unit in Wright’s place and more of Wright with the first unit and more of DeRozan in general. Similar to Scott and Tom, I think that keeping Wright from shooting the ball is key. The way to accomplish that is by putting him on the floor with the top offensive players and giving him instructions to only shoot open 3s and lay-ups. If DeRozan or Belinelli could be solid defensive 2s, then I’d have no problem replacing Wright with them. Wright’s upside is limited.

   Last thought - when guys play (starter or bench) is an ego thing. Most NBA stars could not thrive in a Ginobili role (see Iverson, Allen) because they are trained to resent and overcome being a backup. What’s more important is the combinations and the overall minutes. Because we have a starting/finishing combination that appears successful (57%), there’s no reason to mess with a player’s psyche. It’s smarter, instead, to pull one of Bosh/Bargnani off early and give Bargnani lots of burn in situations where he can be a focal point of the offence with Belinelli. If the first unit starts to flag, then I wouldn’t have a problem with further limiting the Bosh/Bargnani run time. One thing that has changed this year is that Bosh and Bargnani are showing more chemistry on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball because Bosh has gotten stronger inside and on the boards.

   Thank you for reading.

5. khandor Says:
   November 15th, 2009 at 5:24 pm

   Brain,

   1. A positive +/- rating for the 5-man unit consisting of:

   Calderon+DeRozan+Turkoglu+Bosh+Bargnani

   does not necessarily mean that the combination of Bosh and Bargnani is succeeding in a way which will bare fruit as this season plays out and, more importantly, if the Raptors qualify for the playoffs.

   2. Large vs small sample sizes have very little significance in basketball … due to the high number of variables involved in the game on any given possession and the effects of individual match-ups.

   3. If we agree to accept your interpretation of what constitutes a “demotion”, in the first place, then … I’m comfortable with the perception that sees Bargnani’s defense and rebounding, thus far this season, as actually warranting a “demotion”.

   Defense and Rebounding, at the Center position, in the NBA, are more important elements of a high end team than is Points Scored.

   4. Although he is far from being a solid defensive player, IMO, DeRozan is not the type of OG who should be limited to just [i] layups and [ii] shooting 3’s. At this specific position, DD is a much more effective player, overall, when you consider Offense, Defense and Rebounding than any of Misters Belinelli, Jack or Wright.

   5. An individual player’s “Psyche” is important in basketball.

   Bargnani’s psyche is that of a one-dimensional scorer who needs to be given the green at all times. This type of player functions best when he comes off the bench … and knows that he isn’t going to get pulled in an ad hoc way for missing shots, failing to rebound with authority, or blowing the occasional defensive assignment.

   Players of his ilk that CANNOT accept/succeed coming off the bench, in this exact role, are a waste of time and organizational resources, as they will almost always result in giving up more opponent points scored than what they can generate themselves, regardless how profilic their individual exploits might be.

   6. Bosh and Bargnani have never had a problem co-existing at the offensive end of the floor.

   Bargnani is THE problem Defensively, and in terms of Rebounding, and until:

   A. He improves dramatically;

   or,

   B. His minutes played are reduced/limited;

   the Raptors are NOT going to make the jump required to become a legit contender for the NBA Championship down-the-road.

   As I first wrote several years ago …

   Chris Bosh is a terrific all-around player … despite not being a clutch scorer … especially, if he’s used properly, at the Center position; while,

   Andrea Bargnani is an offensively talented perimeter-based Center who can be a highly effective role player for a solid [championship-calibre?] team, if he’s used properly.

6. Brain Colangelo Says:
   November 16th, 2009 at 6:43 am

   1. Most Raps fans would be happy with a competitive team this year that causes Bosh to re-sign. Noone expects this team to suddenly turn into a championship contender. Perhaps if the Raps playser with upside (DeRozan, Belinelli, Johnson and Weems) blossom, including one of them becoming all-star calibre at both ends of the floor, then expectations will increase.

   2. I said that Wright should shoot layups and 3s. DeRozan is very careful with the ball, perhaps too careful.

   Thank you for reading.

7. Brain Colangelo Says:
   November 16th, 2009 at 6:50 am

   Sorry - re. +/-… if a unit is consistently a plus unit, I think you have to conclude that it’s a good unit. The more plus it is, in general, the better. I don’t think that it’s the single irreducible measure of success, but if you look, for example, at last year’s #s you’ll find LBJ at the top of the individual +/- list and the top teams having fielded the top 5-man units. This year, Dirk is the top +/- player by a ways and his #s dwarf every other Mavs player.

   Going into last night, Bosh and Bargnani had the highest +/- on the Raps which, combined with their other stats, confirms that they’re the most effective raptors.

   In last night’s game, Bargnani’s +/- showed that Toronto played the best with him on the floor. Is that what really happened, or was saved statistically by running into foul trouble and sitting down right as the Suns made their run… The numbers may lie but they can only lie so much.

   Toronto
   Starters Min FG 3Pt FT +/- Off Reb Ast TO Stl BS BA PF Pts
   J. Calderon G 31:48 3-7 1-2 1-1 -3 1 3 7 0 2 0 0 1 8
   D. DeRozan G 19:28 3-7 0-1 0-0 -1 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 1 6
   A. Bargnani C 34:20 6-15 1-3 4-4 +15 1 4 0 1 0 1 0 5 17
   H. Turkoglu F 37:09 8-20 4-9 0-0 +3 0 6 3 2 1 0 0 3 20
   C. Bosh F 36:09 10-19 0-1 5-7 -12 5 10 2 3 0 2 2 3 25
   Bench Min FG 3Pt FT +/- Off Reb Ast TO Stl BS BA PF Pts
   M. Belinelli 28:32 4-9 3-6 0-0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 2 11
   A. Johnson 25:31 3-5 0-0 1-2 -5 4 9 1 0 1 0 0 3 7
   J. Jack 18:37 1-4 0-2 0-0 -3 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 1 2
   S. Weems 8:26 2-2 0-0 0-0 +1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 4
   M. Banks DNP - Coach’s Decision
   R. Evans DNP - Coach’s Decision
   R. Nesterovic DNP - Coach’s Decision
   P. O’Bryant DNP - Coach’s Decision
   A. Wright DNP - Coach’s Decision

   Totals 40-88 9-24 11-14 11 39 18 11 6 4 4 20 100

8. khandor Says:
   November 17th, 2009 at 10:33 am

   Brain,

   Unfortunately …

   “most Raptors fan” may not really care whether the team ever wins a league championship, or not.

   i.e. Exhibit A - The 40 Year Wait of Leafs Nation

   ——————————————————–

   Turning into an overnight contender for a NBA championship is the least of my concerns.

   The real problem is … NEVER ever really making any tangible progress towards reaching that long term objective down-the-road, while MLSE continues to rake in the profits AND hoodwink the fanbase.

   ——————————————————–

   Please accept my apology for misconstruing what you said above, re: Wright vs DeRozan.

   ——————————————————–

   re: “Going into last night, Bosh and Bargnani had the highest +/- on the Raps which, combined with their other stats, confirms that they’re the most effective raptors.”

   IMO, the NBA’s +/- stat does not measure an individual player’s level of effectiveness.

   The only things that do that accurately are the type of in-depth stats that all elite level coaches keep whenever they watch a basketball game … which involve every aspect of Offense [individual and team], Defense [individual and team] and Rebounding [individual and team], relative to individual match-ups, on a possession-by-possession basis.

   [i.e. Bosh is an elite level player; but, Bargnani is not ... at least, as of yet.]

9. Brain Colangelo Says:
   November 17th, 2009 at 12:13 pm

   1. “The only things that do that accurately are the type of in-depth stats that all elite level coaches keep whenever they watch a basketball game … which involve every aspect of Offense [individual and team], Defense [individual and team] and Rebounding [individual and team], relative to individual match-ups, on a possession-by-possession basis.

   [i.e. Bosh is an elite level player; but, Bargnani is not ... at least, as of yet.]”

   Are those actually stats, or observations and mental notes? The difference between those types of analysis is quantitative vs. qualitative analysis. Even if coaches don’t do it, it may be a powerful measure of effectiveness (in combination with other metrics). Certainly +/- is useful within a team. I was shocked to see Dirk’s +/- so far above the rest of his teammates when D-Wade’s +/- is the same as JO’s (as of when I looked). Not saying D-Wade and JO are equal, it’s interesting to look at the effectiveness of certain combinations.

   2. If the Raps best 3-man units and 5-man units (based on +/- and other measures) include Bosh/Bargnani combos and those units typically face the best the other team has to offer, it is powerful evidence that the Raps are best when the Killer Bs are on the floor, qualitative views of experts notwithstanding. So far, the #s bear that out. It’s worth watching as the Raps face tough opponents who can also rebound well.

   3. I agree that Bargnani is not an elite player. He’s not a good rebounder or help defender. If he could become slightly above average in those areas and continue to improve his man D, I’d argue that he’d be very close to joining the league’s elite. His game would then surpass the Okur level and approach the Dirk level. As an aside, I don’t like the Okur comparisons at this stage b/c Bargnani has so many more “wing” skills and so many fewer “big” skills.

10. khandor Says:
    November 17th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

    Brain,

    re: 1

    Elite level coaches frequently do both.

    There’s no distinction between qualitative and quantative in the mind of an elite level coach, who knows full well that the notion of “vaild sample size” is almost useless in the NBA environment … which is predicated upon individual match-ups and mis-matches.

    True “power” comes from knowledge … but true “knowledge”, itself, must exist first.

    Unfortunately, in today’s numerical-obsessed basketball environment TOO many of the “stats” in-use are NOT accurate, or do NOT actually reflect properly what many in “the business” will try to tell you they claim to represent.

    e.g. when you say this:

    “Certainly +/- is useful within a team. I was shocked to see Dirk’s +/- so far above the rest of his teammates when D-Wade’s +/- is the same as JO’s (as of when I looked). Not saying D-Wade and JO are equal, it’s interesting to look at the effectiveness of certain combinations.”

    What are you actually trying to say?

    [i.e. according to you:

    i. What does it MEAN that Dirk's +/- number is so far above the rest of his teammates, while Wade's +/- number is the same as J-Neal's?

    ii. Instead of saying what you're "not saying", re: this disparity, instead, try saying what you really think this desparity actually MEANS.

    according to me:

    iii. +/-, in isolation, doesn't reveal effectiveness.]

    IMO, “true knowledge” about the game is missing in a great deal of today’s pseudo basketball commentary/analysis.

    ——————————————————–

    re: 2

    “it is powerful evidence that the Raps are best when the Killer Bs are on the floor” …

    When facing which specific combinatons of opponents?

    In comparison with what other combinations that have yet to be used by Toronto?

    or, What about a scenario like this one:

    OPTION 1
    Combo 1 = +20; Combo 2 = -10; Combo 3 = -5; and, Combo 4 = -8
    TOTAL = -3

    vs

    OPTION 2
    Combo 1 = +8; Combo 2 = +4; Combo 3 = -2; and, Comb 4 = - 4
    TOTAL = +6

    IYO, which OPTION is really the MOST effective for the Raptors?

    ——————————————————–

    re: 3

    Please eliminate Dirk’s name from any future comparison with Bargnani, as Il Mago simply does NOT have the type of agility and finesse-based offensive game that Nowitzer has, in spades.

    Bargnani is a good offensive player who is continuing to improve. He is nothing like Nowitzki.

11. Brain Colangelo Says:
    November 17th, 2009 at 8:44 pm

    1. Dirk’s +/- number being so far above the rest of his teammates probably means that the team’s much worse off when he’s not on the floor and that no other Dallas player positively impacts the team’s play like he does.

    I’m not sure what Wade = JO means. I’d like to do research before I respond. Just saying I’m surprised.

    Re. “+/-, in isolation, doesn’t reveal effectiveness.” I said “in combination with other metrics” and, of course, watching the games. The stats show you that watching the games isn’t enough, however.

    2. “it is powerful evidence that the Raps are best when the Killer Bs are on the floor” … “When facing which specific combinatons of opponents?”

    While playing against the best the other team has to offer, presumably. Usually starters and closers in the NBA are a team’s best players. Not always, but usually.

    Not in comparison with what other combinations that have yet to be used by Toronto or in comparison with future players. How could +/- tell you that?

    I can’t comment on your scenario - it looks like a GMAT question. Please administer the psychometric test first.

    3. What defines Dirk’s agility and finesse? Do you have a youtube selection? I don’t get to see him play too often but from what I recall of the playoffs last year his game is based more on back to the basket play and mid-range jumpers. Is that the finesse you’re referring to?

12. khandor Says:
    November 19th, 2009 at 1:13 am

    Brain,

    1. re: Dirk’s +/- number being so far above the rest of his teammates probably means that the team’s much worse off when he’s not on the floor and that no other Dallas player positively impacts the team’s play like he does.

    I do not agree with this observation.

    IMO …

    i. it is accurate to say that the Mavs play at a positive score differential whenever Dirk is on the floor;
    ii. it is NOT accurate to say that the Mavs are much worse off when Dirk’s off the floor”

    [i.e. in place of the wording in ii. it would be accurate to say that the Mavs are worse off when Dirk's off the floor AND one of the other 5-player combinations they have used to this point is on the floor instead];

    iii. it is NOT accurate to say that no other Mavs’ player positively effects the performance of their team as much as Nowitzki does.

    Select stats, watching the games attentatively, and developing a high degree of basketball acumen each contribute to a thorough understanding of the game.

    —————————————————-

    2.

    i. I do not share that same presumption. i.e. yes, when working vs Closers; but, not necessarily, yes, when working vs Starters.

    ii. Although “OPTION 1, Combo 1″ has the most positive individual +/- score, “OPTION 2″ [collectively] generates a better overall +/- score for the entire team. Therefore, “OPTION 2, Combo 1″ may actually be a better alternative for the team to use, by comparison.

    —————————————————-

    3. Have you ever seen Bargnani make an “off-balance, wrong-footed step-back, twisting-sideways, fall-away-while-being-heavily-contested jumpshot”?

    There are isolated examples within this video clip of Dirk.

    These are shots that Nowitzki makes on a fairly routine basis.

    He has always been a thinner, more lithe, more agile, better coordinated athlete than Bargnani, who is thicker, more mechanical, and less coordinated.

13. Brain Colangelo Says:
    November 19th, 2009 at 6:01 am

    Re. “[i.e. in place of the wording in ii. it would be accurate to say that the Mavs are worse off when Dirk's off the floor AND one of the other 5-player combinations they have used to this point is on the floor instead];”

    - You don’t need to say that. When he’s off the floor either another 5-man combo is on the floor or the game is not being played. That’s implied.

    Re. “it is NOT accurate to say that no other Mavs’ player positively effects the performance of their team as much as Nowitzki does.”

    - Every measure and viewing Mavs games would tell you that. He’s very, very clearly the Mav’s best, most important and hardest to replace player. If not him, then who and how can you prove it?

    Re. “Have you ever seen Bargnani make an “off-balance, wrong-footed step-back, twisting-sideways, fall-away-while-being-heavily-contested jumpshot”?” No - his step-back and back to the basket moves are far behind Dirk’s. I see what you’re saying re quickness and agility - I guess Bargs makes up for it on his drives from the perimeter with very good ball-handling skills for his size.

14. khandor Says:
    November 19th, 2009 at 6:52 pm

    Brain,

    Unfortunately … Yes, you do need to say precisely that, in this instance, because you do not happen to know yet whether a specific combination of players which the Mavs have so far decided not to try together might well be as effective as one of the combinations they have already used to this point which includes Nowitzki.

    In my experience … things that others think might be “implied” are, in fact, frequently far from being the case at all.

    ——————————————————–

    I’m not saying that Dirk is something the Mavs best player.

    What I’m saying is that … it’s an incorrect assessment to make that specific observation based solely on his individual +/- score [as kept by the NBA].

    IMO, however, actually viewing the games this year with a well-trained eye would indeed be a good and sound way to make this type of assessment, re: Nowitzki’s standing/place on this Mavs team.

    ——————————————————–

    +/- Fallacy Exhibit A

    In the first few minutes of the Raptors’ games vs Denver, Toronto was able to take a 7 [or 8] point lead [15-8, I think].

    At this point, Triano removed Bargnani [with 2 PFs] from the game … in favour of Johnson … with the Raptors’ starting Center having an individual +/- score of +7.

    As such … Calderon, DeRozan, Wright and Bosh each had individual +/- scores of +7, as well, at that exact point in the game.

    If the Nuggets would have scored the next 8 points and, then, Bargnani was subbed back into the game, the individual +/- scores for the 6 Raptors who had been in the game to that point would have looked like this:

    Calderon -1
    DeRozan -1
    Wright -1
    Bosh -1
    Johnson -8
    Bargnani +7

    Correct?

    But … is that really an accurate assessment of the contributions of these 6 players to the Raptors’ cause up to that point in the game?

    IMO, it is NOT … when you you consider that the first 8 points which were scored by Denver were all attributable to the defensive/rebounding short-comings of Andrea Bargnani, while only 2 of the Raptors’ initial 15 points had come from him.

    IMO, the type of +/- stats which are being kept today in the NBA are only meaningful when considered in the overall context of the game and what specifically happened on the floor during those exact possessions.

    ——————————————————–

    IMO, Bargnani’s occassional forays to the hoop off the dribble DO NOT make up for the degree of agility and coordination which he lacks, in comparison with Nowitzki; not by a long shot.

15. Brain Colangelo Says:
    November 19th, 2009 at 10:14 pm

    “What I’m saying is that … it’s an incorrect assessment to make that specific observation based solely on his individual +/- score [as kept by the NBA].

    IMO, however, actually viewing the games this year with a well-trained eye would indeed be a good and sound way to make this type of assessment, re: Nowitzki’s standing/place on this Mavs team. ”

    Re-read what I wrote. There’s no conflict with my statement. Still, I don’t know why you’d think that +/- can be used to compare what happened against what might have happened if things had been done differently. +/- is not a predictive measure and I didn’t say it was. Feel free to keep arguing the point, but it’s silly.

    Re. “IMO, the type of +/- stats which are being kept today in the NBA are only meaningful when considered in the overall context of the game and what specifically happened on the floor during those exact possessions.” I think that’s too limited…

16. Brain Colangelo Says:
    November 20th, 2009 at 6:15 am

    Re Wade/JO, it reflects the fact that they’ve played together almost the entire time that JO has been on the court so you can’t use +/- very easiily to assess differences between them. It’s not a meaningful stat in terms of assessing which players in general cause the Heat to play well.

17. khandor Says:
    November 21st, 2009 at 12:40 pm

    Brain,

    re: this entire +/- discussion

    It really is a subtle point that I’ve been trying to make here … and I don’t think that I’ve managed to convey it well.

    Thus, I will choose discretion over valour … in this instance … and simply let it go.

    ——————————————————–

    There is no such thing as “being too limited” … when attempting to analyse correctly how something actually works.

    For the most part, it’s when “generalities” creep into the conversation that things can go haywire and “what really isn’t” can sometimes be accepted by others as “what really is”, in error.

    ——————————————————–

    re: “It’s not a meaningful stat in terms of assessing which players in general cause“ … a team to play well

    With my addendum, and the word I’ve bolded, I can then agree with your observation, 100%.

18. Brain Colangelo Says:
    November 22nd, 2009 at 8:26 am

    huzzah

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