khandor’s sports blog

Substitution Charts can tell you a great deal about the game

There are many different ways to track the performance of an individual player, or specific combinations of players, in a NBA game.

When you do this work, what you find, somteimes, can be most revealing.

This is what the “Substitution Chart” looks like for Wednesday’s game between Toronto and Cleveland.

TIME	TOTAL	TEAM	PG	OG	SF	PF	C	SCORE	DIFF
Q1 12:00		V	Williams	Parker	James	Varejao	O’Neal	6	-9
	5:24	H	Calderon	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	15	+9

6:36		V	Williams	Gibson	Parker	James	O’Neal	8	0
	1:25	H						17	0

5:11		V	Wiliams	Gibson	Parker	James	Ilgauskas	11	+1
	0:22	H						19	-1

4:49		V	Williams	Gibson	Moon	James	Ilgauskas	11	0
	0:07	H						19	0

4:42		V						13	0
	0:55	H	Calderon	DeRozan	Wright	Turkoglu	Bargnani	21	0

3:47		V	Gibson	Moon	James	Hickson	Ilgauskas	16	+3
	0:54	H	Calderon	Jack	Wright	Tukoglu	Bargnani	21	-3

2:53		V						17	+1
	0:34	H	Calderon	Jack	Wright	Turkoglu	Bosh	21	-1

2:19		V						22	-1
	1:54	H	Calderon	Jack	Wright	Johnson	Bosh	27	+1

0:25		V						22	0
	0:25	H	Banks	Jack	DeRozan	Johnson	Bosh	27	0

Q2 12:00		V	Williams	Gibson	Moon	O’Neal	Ilgauskas	28	+2
	2:11	H	Jack	Belinelli	DeRozan	Bosh	Bargnani	31	-2

9:49		V						28	-4
	0:48	H	Jack	Belinelli	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	35	+4

9:01		V	Williams	Parker	Moon	O’Neal	Ilgauskas	28	-2
	1:22	H	Jack	Belinelli	Turkoglu	Bargnani	Nesterovic	37	+2

7:39		V	Williams	Parker	Moon	James	Varejao	32	+2
	1:34	H	Jack	Belinelli	Turkoglu	Johnson	Bargnani	39	-2

6:05		V						33	-1
	0:15	H	Calderon	Belinelli	Turkoglu	Johnson	Bargnani	41	+1

5:50		V	Williams	Parker	James	Hickson	Varejao	34	-4
	1:05	H						46	+4

4:45		V						34	0
	0:23	H	Calderon	Belinelli	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	46	0

4:22		V	Williams	Parker	James	Varejao	O’Neal	36	-6
	2:11	H	Calderon	Belinelli	Wright	Bosh	Bargnani	54	+6

2:11		V	Williams	Gibson	Parker	James	O’Neal	36	-2
	0:59	H	Calderon	Belinelli	Wright	Bosh	Nesterovic	56	+2

1:12		V						37	0
	0:49	H	Calderon	Jack	Belinelli	Wright	Nesterovic	57	0

0:23		V	Gibson	Parker	Moon	James	Varejao	39	+2
	0:23	H	Calderon	Jack	Belinelli	Bosh	Nesterovic	57	-2

Q3 12:00		V	Williams	Gibson	Parker	James	O’Neal	49	+2
	3:52	H	Calderon	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	65	-2

8:08		V	Williams	Gibson	Parker	James	Varejao	55	+4
	1:36	H	Jack	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	67	-4

6:32		V						57	+2
	0:30	H	Jack	Belinelli	Wright	Bosh	Bargnani	67	-2

6:02		V						60	+3
	0:25	H	Calderon	Jack	Belinelli	Wright	Bargnani	67	-3

5:27		V						62	+1
	0:53	H	Calderon	Jack	Wright	Turkoglu	Bosh	68	-1

4:34		V	Gibson	Parker	Moon	James	Varejao	69	+6
	2:12	H						69	-6

2:22		V						70	-3
	1:04	H	Jack	Belinelli	Wright	Turkoglu	Bosh	73	+3

1:18		V						71	-2
	0:46	H	Jack	Belinelli	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh	76	+2

0:32		V	Gibson	Parker	Moon	Hickson	Varejao	71	-2
	0:32	H	Jack	Belinelli	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Johnson	78	+2

Q4 12:00		V	Williams	Gibson	Moon	O’Neal	Ilgauskas	72	-4
	1:45	H	Jack	Belinelli	DeRozan	Bosh	Bargnani	83	+4

10:15		V	Williams	Parker	Moon	O’Neal	Ilgauskas	74	-2
	1:35	H						87	+2

8:40		V	Williams	Gibson	Parker	James	O’Neal	76	+2
	0:34	H						87	-2

8:06		V						76	0
	0:09	H	Jack	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	87	0

7:57		V						78	-2
	1:56	H	Jack	DeRozan	Turkoglu	Bosh	Nesterovic	91	+2

6:01		V	Williams	Gibson	Parker	James	Varejao	79	-1
	1:29	H	Calderon	Jack	Turkoglu	Bosh	Bargnani	93	+1

4:32		V						91	+4
	4:17	H	Calderon	Jack	Wright	Turkoglu	Bosh	101	-4

0:15		V						91	0
	0:15	H	Calderon	Jack	Wright	Turkoglu	Nesterovic	101	0
LEGEND: Bold – Player subbed into the game; Italics – Player in game shifted to new position; PG – Point Guard; OG – Off Guard; SF – Small Forward; PF – Power Forward; C – Center; DIFF – Difference in Score; V – Visiting Team; H – Home Team.

——————————————–

It contains a fair amount of useful information, if you take the time to examine it in detail.

For example:

Bosh/Bargnani vs PF/C Combos for Cleveland

Varejoa/O’Neal = +9 [7:35]
O’Neal/Ilgauskas = +16 [7:09]

Hickson/Varejoa = 0 [0:23]

James/Ilgauskas = -1 [0:29]

James/O’Neal = -4 [6:00]
James/Varejoa = -6 [2:06]

+25 [14:44]

-11 [8:58]

——————————————–

There were, at least, 2 items from Wednesday’s victory that should be of some concern to the Raptors, heading towards this evening’s Game 2, vs Memphis:

1. The way that Bosh/Bargnani performed against the Cavs’ combinations of PF/C’s not named O’Neal/Ilgauskas or Varejao/O’Neal;

and,

2. The 39:44 played by Chris Bosh … in a game where the Raptors had a 21 point lead just prior to half-time … with a brace on his right knee for precautionary reasons.

Something to keep your eyes on as Toronto makes its way through the first 20 games of its regular season schedule.

Tags: Amir Johnson, Anderson Verajao, Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Parker, Antoine Wright, Chris Bosh, Cleveland Cavaliers, Daniel Gibson, Hedo Turkoglu, Jamario Moon, Jarrett Jack, JJ Hickson, Jose Calderon, Lebron James, Marco Belinelli, Marcus Banks, Mo Williams, Patrick O'Bryant, Rasho Nesterovic, Shaquille O'Neal, Toronto Raptors, Zadrunas Ilgauskas

This entry was posted on Friday, October 30th, 2009 at 4:18 pm and is filed under Analytics, Basketball, NBA. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

7 Responses to “Substitution Charts can tell you a great deal about the game”

Scott G Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 4:45 pm
God Bargs was terrible last night!! Watching him float around on D is so frustrating. I honestly believe he his biggest problem is that he cannot sustain a high effort level for anything longer than a short burst. (eg he’ll close out, but then let his man blow my; he’ll jump once for a rebound, then get beat on the second jump; he’ll hedge out hard on the PnR defense, then jog back to his own man on the recovery, etc etc)

Also, we have nobody that can match up athletically with Gay. Maybe that’s why we should have drafted him…

IMO, Jay should have a short leash with Jose when he’s matched up against a guy like Conley. Just too quick…

Sigh… back down to earth.
khandor Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 7:32 pm
Scott G.,

re: Bargnani

Thus far, the effectiveness of his individual game is entirely dependent on match-ups.

When they’re in his favour … i.e. vs Cleveland, when Mike Brown has a brain cramp and inexplicably goes with his elephant package … no problem.

When they’re not in his favour, however … i.e. vs Memphis, when Lionel Hollins coaches in a responsible way … it creates a major disadvantage for the Raptors which is difficult to overcome.

What’s especially disturbing is that he doesn’t seem to show near the same degree of inconsistency when it comes to running the floor hard in offensive transition situations.

————————————————

re: Rudy, Rudy, Rudy

There are several good reasons we both wanted the Raptors to trade down in 2006 and draft either Misters Gay or Roy.

————————————————

re: walking the dog with El Matador

IMO, Calderon’s performance last night vs Conley was not the main problem.

e.g. When reviewing the game in my mind, I can only recall a few times when Mike, Jr. was able to break Jose down off the bounce and get into the heart of the Raptors defense to “finish” or “wheel & deal”.

In general, Jose’s individual defense is nowhere near as porous as others in Raptorville think it is … but, when you have a PG whose STRENGTH is NOT his individual defense then it’s a cardinal sin to try and get away with playing “average-to-poor” defenders at the other spots, as well, i.e. Bargnani/Nesterovic, DeRozan/Jack/Belinelli and Turkoglu/Wright.

[e.g. the Spurs do NOT win a single championship with either Tony Parker or Avery Johnson as their PG, if they DO NOT have cats like Bruce Browen, Manu Ginobili, Micahel Finley, Sean Elliot, Mario Elie, Robert Horry, Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto, Nazr Mohammed, Malik Rose, Tim Duncan, and David Robinson on the floor beside him.]

If the the Raptors are COMMITTED to using Calderon at the Point, then, it simply makes no sense whatsoever to NOT seek out solid defenders, rebounders, first-class athletes, and good all-around players to put on the floor with him … and Chris Bosh.

IMO, neither one is the main problem with the Raptors.

———————————-

re: back down to earth

The feet in this corner never left the ground.
Ragu Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:03 am
What’s your take on why we have Jack @ the 2 and having a “big and quick” line w/ Turk @ the 1 in spurts [(middle of the 3rd qrtr) Turk-Wright-Evans-Bosh-Bargs] and would it work (in short bursts)?
Scott G Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:29 am
Khan — fair enough criticism of the raps’ current roster (ie that they don’t have enough solid defenders at the 2/3 spots to make up for Jose)… but, I don’t think it’s terribly relevant at this point. The roster is what it is, and it’s up to Triano to make it work as best it can. In that context, I think it seems like a good idea to give Jose less tick against waterbug-style PGs like Conley, since he seems to struggle against them. Conley did have 10 assists… granted he also had 5 TOs, but I think he certainly hurt us.

Of course, the major problem was the 18 offensive rebounds, many of which came in crucial situations… I missed the ORL game, but it seemed that we gave up a number down the stretch in that game as well.
khandor Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:05 pm
Ragu,

IMO, Jarrett Jack should NOT be playing at the #2/OG position in the NBA.

The Raptors are using him at this position because:

- Demar DeRozan, as a rookie, is perceived to be a poor defensive #2/OG
- Marco Belinelli is not a good defender/rebounder at this position
- Antoine Wright is deemed to be Hedo Turkoglu’s back-up [at #3/SF]
- Sonny Weems can’t shoot the ball like a decent #2/OG

Jarret Jack is an effective PG for a NBA team that has 4 solid teammates to play beside him. He does nothing exceptionally well and has no major weaknesses to speak of. What he isn’t, however, is a Top Notch PG, either as a Starter or a Back-up, who deserves to be paid approximately $5.0 M per season.

——————————————————–

re: a possible 5-man unit of Turk-Wright-Evans-Bosh-Bargnani

Sorry to say … but, I don’t like it very much at all.

While Hedo Turkoglu may be a solid Point Forward on offense … he is also a plodding defender, rebounder and dribbler.

Although Antoine Wright is an okay defender at the #2/OG position, he is nowhere close enough to being “good” enough as an offensive player to deserve “starter’s minutes” on a NBA team that doesn’t feature a PG like J-Kidd, a SF like D-Howard, and a PF-C like D-Nowitzki.

Reggie Evans is a very limited PF … who struggles on Defense and with “finishing”.

Andrea Bargnani is a bad defender and a poor rebounder.

Chris Bosh is a very good all-around Center who needs good teammates beside him, if he’s going to excel.

Overall … there is very little relative positional quickness in a 5-man unit that combines this group of players.
khandor Says:
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:50 pm
Scott G.,

Unfortunately, it’s not just a question of “making up for Jose Calderon” with this year’s team.

There are plenty of holes throughout the line-up when you consider Defense, Offense and Rebounding.

Chris Bosh is the only really solid all-around player on the entire roster.
Scott G Says:
November 3rd, 2009 at 1:02 am
Khan – LOL! too true…

Substitution Charts can tell you a great deal about the game

7 Responses to “Substitution Charts can tell you a great deal about the game”

Leave a Reply