Raptors improvement relative to other teams in division & conference
The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:
1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs
At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:
BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]
Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA
Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA
NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade
Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade
TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade
Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade
NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA
Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA
While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.
Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?
A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.
The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.
However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.
Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …
if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:
ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York
and the conference standings eventually look something like this:
SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte
CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee
and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:
Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando - High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland - High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston - High End, Atlantic
4-5-6 Atlanta - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington - Upper Middle, Southeast
7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte - Low End, Southwest
12-13-14-15 Milwaukee - Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York - Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey - Low End, Atlantic
indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:
#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic
IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?
Tags: Amir Johnson, Andre Miller, Anthony Parker, Antoine Wright, Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Carlos Delfino, Charlotte Bobcats, Chicago Bulls, Chris Wilcox, Cleveland Cavaliers, Courtney Lee, Danilo Gallinari, Darko Milicic, Demar DeRozan, Detroit Pistons, Elton Brand, Gabe Pruitt, Hedo Turkoglu, Indiana Pacers, Jarrett Jack, Jason Kapono, Jason Smith, Joey Graham, Jordan Hill, Jrue Holiday, Kris Humphries, Leon Powe, Lester Hudson, Marco Belinelli, Marquis Daniels, Miami Heat, Mikki Moore, Milwaukee Bucks, Nathan Jawai, New Jersey Nets, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Quentin Richardson, Rafer Alston, Rasheed Wallace, Rasho Nesterovic, Reggie Evans, Rodney Carney, Roko Ukic, Ryan Anderson, Shawn Marion, Sheldon Williams, Stephon Marbury, Sun Yue, Terrence Williams, Theo Ratliff, Tony Battie, Tony Douglas, Toronto Raptors, Vince Carter, Washington Wizards
September 14th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Quick question…. besides D-wade, what exactly does the Miami have in the way of players that make them better than the Raps (or Chicago, or Detroit or Charlotte for that matter?)
September 14th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Was very interested in reading this piece because I am convinced that the Raptors improvement is best seen relative to their competition. Too bad you don’t distinguish between starters, rotation guys, and end of the benchers. New Jersey is going to be worse without VC; Philadelphia is going to be worse without a point guard; New York may improve marginally. Boston probably won’t improve their record dramatically.
Anyone who thinks Miami is going to finish top six is dreaming in techni-color. They are the team most likely to collapse. Even if Wade plays out of his mind they aren’t going to be as good as last year.
September 15th, 2009 at 1:04 am
Not sure I understand your second point (I understand the part about the jury being out). Why not say, “if the Raptors finish last in the Atlantic division, or if they finish last in the conference, how much can you really say they’ve improved?” It’s also no different from saying “if the Raptors win the division again, ahead of Boston, how can you say they haven’t improved?” You’re selecting an outcome and posing a moot question.
Also, on a more minor note, I’m not sure why you list Delfino as a significant loss when he wasn’t even on the 15 man roster last year, while listing Brand and Gallinari as significant adds when they both played parts of last season. Should be either or.
September 15th, 2009 at 7:19 am
Hardcore,
Last year’s Miami Heat [43-39/.524] finished 5th in the EC and 3rd in the Southeast Division … with this roster and principal rotation.
This is Miami’s current roster.
If you see where I’ve rated Miami’s overall talent this season, in comparison with where it looks the Heat might finish in the standings [i.e. see this blog entry as a starting point], you should be able to piece together what their actual strengths are, as a team, from my perspective.
In short …
A. It’s completely useless to make an observation about this team that begins with the following words:
“If you discount/take away Dwyane Wade … “
because The Man is simply that good and effects every single thing that Miami does on and off the floor, given the nature of the position he plays, what his skill-set is, and his character;
and,
B. The coaching this team gets every day, even from a relative neophyte like Eric Spoelstra … i.e. successor to the throne of Pat Riley … is superior.
If D-Wade is injured this year, Miami will probably find itself right back in the Lottery.
However, it is simple folly to lay a bet against the likelihood of this organization and this player making the playoffs this season, as long as The Man is healthy.
————————————
PS. Despite what you’ve been told by new-age stats gurus … Basketball is not a game won by game stat averages. In general, Game Stat Averages are for losing teams … and their fans, and so-called NBA analysts … to dwell upon, ad nauseum.
Basketball is a game which is won by specific players, and coaches … with specific strengths & weaknesses … in specific match-up situations, making specific plays to either win or lose a specific game, with the game on the line.
September 15th, 2009 at 9:31 am
Vorkuta,
Welcome aboard!
re: Starters and Back-up players
If you haven’t done so yet, take a look at the following entry.
re: NJN w/o Carter
It’s a mistake to assume that this groupd of players is simply going to fall by the wayside because the team exchanged VC and Ryan Anderson for Courtney Lee [OG], Rafer Alston [PG] and Tony Battie [PF-C], while adding a solid young draftee like Terrence Williams [SF-OG].
Might the nets falter this season? Yes, indeed.
Might they also be a solid middle of the pack team, as they were last season … in the hunt for a playoff spot for a good portion of the regular season campaign … on the backs of an interesting combination of players, i.e. young, old and in-between?
Yes, they might.
Lawrence Frank is a solid head coach; and, the tandem of Kiki V plus Rod T. is a proven commodity in this league that knows how to build a playoff contending team.
re: Philly w/o Miller [PG]
Do not be surprised if the 76ers show few signs of missing their former No. 1 PG. Andre Miller is a solid player, at that position but he is not a “star” who is indispensible. In fact, Louis Williams brings a degree of athleticism to the 76ers at this position that is going to make them a highly entertaining team this season that might surprise fans across the league with a highly competitive level of play.
re: NYK, MIA & BOS
Time will tell whether or not they improve, stay the same or decline.
September 15th, 2009 at 9:40 am
J,
Welcome aboard!
First.
If you re-read carefully what I’ve written here, you should be able to see that I do not have the Raptors finishing in last place in the Atlantic Division.
That’s the reason I simply didn’t say,
“if the Raptors finish last in the Atlantic division, or if they finish last in the conference, how much can you really say they’ve improved?”
Second.
The outcome selected here is …
If the Raptors finish 2nd or 3rd in the Atlantic Division
and
somewhere between #7-12 in the Eastern Conference
with the Celtics ahead of them in their division
and
the Knicks & Nets below them.
Third.
Re-tooling an entire roster means very little in the grand scheme of things if 1 or 2 or 3 years later, etc., the franchise still isn’t any appreciable distance closer to achieving a NBA championship … which is precisely where the Raptors astand today, 3.5 years after Bryan Colangelo assumed complete control of the team [Feb 2006].
Fourth.
IMO, the question asked isn’t a moot question at all.
re: Delfino
Fifth.
He’s an asset that the team had on its extended roster last season and this summer … given the qualifying offer he was tendered. He was used in the deal to acquire Amir Johnson, with Roko Ukic. He’s no longer connected with the Raptors. That registers as an asset out, in my opinion, even though he was not tangibly responsible for any of the team’s W’s & L’s last season.
re: Gallinari and Brand & Smith returning from injuries
Given the little number of games they played last season for their respective teams, they should be thought of as new players added to the mix this year. Their squads coped without them last year.
Although they were on the rosters of their respective teams
September 17th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
so im not the only one who gets left confused by you’re reasoning
September 17th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
mr. hunter,
Far from it, in fact … you are by no means alone when it comes to being confused, on occasion, by my ideas about the NBA game.
September 18th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
no i understand the ideas, just the reasoning behind it- why u feel these ways- is the confusing part. the ideas are far-fetched but we can say that about anyones because we havnt seen this group play together yet. but your reasoning is just not there at all so how can i even begin to understand. its just dumb sounding, the stuff you write.
September 21st, 2009 at 12:04 pm
mr. hunter,
As I’ve said before … there are others who read what I write and do think it dumb or confusing.