khandor’s sports blog

According to all published reports, thus far, Raptors fans should expect to see their squad tip-off the regular season on Wed Oct 28 vs Cleveland with the following line-up:

STARTERS
PG/Calderon, OG/DeRozan, SF/Turkoglu, PF/Bosh and C/Bargnani

KEY SUBS
PG-OG/Jack, OG/Belinelli, SF/Wright, PF/Evans and C/Nesterovic

RESERVES
OG-SF-PG/Douby and PF/Johnson

EXTRAS
PG-OG/Banks, OG-SF/Weems and C/O’Bryant

However, just because this is the way the team’s coaching staff and management happen to see their players, at this point in time, does not mean that this specific line-up is an accurate indication of the actual Best Positions each of these individuals should be playing for this team, this season, given their respective skill-sets at this level of competition.

There are very good reasons why:

1. Hedo Turkoglu’s signing [approx. $50.0 M over the next 5 seasons] should be viewed as an exorbitant free agent expenditure;

2. Andrea Bargnani’s [approx. $36.0 M over the next 6 seasons] contract extension should be viewed as an exorbitant expenditure;

3. Jarrett Jack’s signing [approx. $20.0 M over the next 4 seasons] should be viewed as an exorbitant free agent expenditure; and,

4. Jose Calderon [approx. $34.0 M over the next 4 seasons], as the starting PG, should find himself on the trading block at some point this season;

if the Raptors are a middle of the pack team in the East, again, and finish somewhere in the #8-12 positions.

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PS. There are plenty of so-called NBA analysts who can look at a data set and tell you who, in their opinion, were the best players during that specific time frame. However, it takes a different sort of ability altogether to be able to project with accuracy which specific player will excel at a specific position in the NBA, if afforded the right opportunity. The fact is … this ability does not come from crunching numbers, cannot be learned from a book, is falsely associated with the use of a crystal ball, and can only be derived from something commonly refered to as accumulated Basketball Acumen.

PPS. Pull up a chair, sit back, and watch intently exactly what happens next. It should be worth the price of admission, all by itself.

Related:

Raptors’ Marco Belinelli radiates passion

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 8– vs Chicago [Wed Nov 11]

The Bulls will be a significantly bigger team than they were for much of last season, substituting Luol Deng at the #3/SF position in place of John Salmons, shifting Salmons to the #2/OG position in place of Ben Gordon, and then introducing 2 athletic 1st Round Draft Picks … each with good size at their position … into their rotation at the back-up #3/SF-#4/PF and #4/PF positions, i.e. James Johnson [No. 16, overall] and Taj Gibson [No. 26, overall], respectively. Last year’s arrival of Derrick Rose [PG, 2008 No. 1, overall, Draft Pick], in conjunction with Joakim Noah [C, 2007 No. 9, overall Draft Pick] and Tyrus Thomas [PF, 2006 No. 4, overall Draft Pick], means that Chicago now has a collection of talented young players that can rival the other up-and-coming teams across the NBA. Given the invaluable experience the Bulls gained from their epic 1st Round playoff loss to the Celtics, this team is going to be a dangerous squad this year … but, one which is still going to suffer periods of inconsistency considering the youth on the roster. Playing their 3rd game in 5 days and the 2nd half of a back-2-back, Chicago should be in a vulnerable position for this game … with the Raptors in desperate need of a home-court victory to get back on the right track after their disappointing road trip. 

Raptors expected W-L Record: W, 3-5

You are free to make your own assessment about whether, or not, this is the type of “talk” a President/GM should engage in coming off the last 3 seasons for the Toronto Raptors:

2006-2007
47-35/.573, 1st place Atlantic, 3rd place EC, 1st Rd playoff loss

2007-2008
41-41/.500, 2nd place Atlantic, 6th place EC, 1st Rd playoff loss

2008-2009
33-49/.402, 4th place Atlantic, 13th place EC, missed the playoffs

and, especially, in the light of what was said at the end of the 2008-2009 regular season:

State of the Raptors Address by Bryan Colangelo [Apr 20, 2009]
- this has Six Parts to it and you need to watch each one

Related:

Raptors GM amped about new line-up [Sep 28, 2009]

Assessing Bryan Colangelo’s Press Conference [Apr 21, 2009]

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 7– @ San Antonio [Mon Nov 09]

The end of the first road trip won’t come soon enough for Toronto. Although there are likely going to be cross-match opportunities for the Raptors to exploit Bargnani’s perimeter skills vs The Big Fundamental this should be more than cancelled out on the other end of the floor when either TD or The Dyessman will get an opportunity to ply his trade vs Il Mago. Tony Parker, based on his combination of quickness and size, is one of only a handful of starting PG’s in the league [e.g. CP3 and Devin Harris] that present a truly difficult match-up situation for Jose Calderon. In general, the Spurs have too many weapons for the Raptors to contend with successfully. This is a very solid San Antonio team … with a slew of solid back-ups on their 15-man roster … that will be a legitimate threat to reach the WC Finals again this season. A major challenge for Jay Triano & Co., on the other hand, will involve how to avoid pointing an accusing finger towards their star player, Chris Bosh [in a contract year], while getting off to a slow start.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 2-5

Here is this year’s direct quote from the Raptors’ President/GM:

Raptors makeover will work: Bryan Colangelo
“The scope of the makeover definitely changed from what we originally thought but it wasn’t because we didn’t feel like we should do some of those things,” the president and general manager explained. “It was because we were limited in what we thought we had available to us.”

That all changed after a bold four-team, double sign-and-trade transaction centred on Hedo Turkoglu and Shawn Marion which gave Colangelo the resources to complete a rather remarkable makeover that will be fully unveiled at the team’s annual media day today.

“We’re much better off for it,” said Colangelo. “With all the new faces it’s going to be a challenge … but we really did want to make some changes.

“We’ve accomplished it on paper and now we have to put it all together.”

There’s the rub.

Yes, on paper the Raptors seem vastly improved over the squad that finished last season 33-49.

They have five backups who have been NBA starters and a big starting lineup seemingly more talented than it’s been in years.

But paper isn’t reality; no one can tell what is actually going to transpire during the course of a season.

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There’s the rub?

Here is what he had to say last season, at this exact same time:

On paper … the best team the raptors have had
“On paper, in terms of just pure talent, I would say, yes, this is the best team we’ve had,” the Raptor president and general manager said Monday afternoon.

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On paper?

On paper … means absolutely squat, in the NBA environment.

How a team’s players and coaches fit together, or not, whether they can create individual mismatches which their squad can then take full advantage of, and/or whether they can combine to minimize the match-up advantages which their opponents have based on their respective strengths and weaknesses, etc., are not things which can be assertained with accuracy from looking at a collection of statistical data accounting for “seasonal/career averages” in a plethora of categories ranging from simple to advanced.

Regardless of what the “stats gurus” will try to tell you about “How the game works”, the team that will eventually win the 2009-2010 NBA Championship will not be determined by:

A. How it happens to look on paper;

B. How it happens to perform in a NBA video game;

C. How its players may happen to rank in a NBA Fantasy Hoops contest;

D. etc.

There are 5 teams with a legitimate shot at winning the title this year:

1 LA Lakers [the reigning champions, 65 wins last season]
2 Boston Celtics [the 2007-2008 champions, 62 wins last season]
3 San Antonio Spurs [the 2006-2007 champions, 54 wins last season]
4 Orlando Magic [the reigning finalists, 59 wins last season]
5 Cleveland Cavaliers [the 2006-2007 finalists, 66 wins last season]

based upon:

1 The overall strength of their organization, from top to bottom;
2 The Quality Depth on their roster, specifically designed to create and minimize individual match-up advantages for themselves and their opponents, respectively;
3 Their team’s ability to Rebound & Defend, in general … and, specifically, on certain crucial possessions which decide the final outcome of playoff games;
4 Their collective ability to play Shared Team Offense;
5 Their star players’ abilities to make crucial plays, where necessary, in all three main phases of the game, i.e. Defense, Offense and Rebounding;
6 The quality of their coaching; and,
7 The quality of their GMing.

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Unfortunately, what is now painfully obvious for the Raptors is the lack of an over-riding plan for this organization to ever win a NBA championship while operating under the ownership of MLSE.

Since April 2004, when Glen Grunwald was fired from his position, as GM for the team, the Raptors have been in almost constant state of flux:

2003-2004, Grunwald-O’Neill
33-49/.402, 10th place, missed the playoffs

2004-2005, Babcock-Mitchell
33-49/.402, 11th place, missed the playoffs

2005-2006, Babcock-Mitchell/Colangelo-Mitchell
27-55/.313, 12th place, missed the playoffs

2006-2007, Colangelo-Mitchell
47-35/.573, 3rd place, 1st Rd playoff loss

2007-2008, Colangelo-Mitchell
41-41/.500, 6th place, 1st Rd playoff loss

2008-2009, Colangelo-Mitchell/Colangelo-Triano
33-49/.402, 13th place, missed the playoffs

2009-2010, Colangelo-Triano
?, ?, ? 

Teams “in a constant state of flux” do not know what they are doing when it comes to ever being able to build a championship operation in the NBA … in spite of their own ability to make $$$ hand-over-fist, on an annual basis.

It takes a high degree of Basketball Acumen to actually win the title in this league … and THIS simply isn’t to be found on a piece of paper, or through crunching numbers.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

The first back-2-back of the season for the Raptors will be a difficult one to win. In general, whichever team gets the best player in a NBA trade will eventually be seen as “the winner” in that specific transaction. In this instance, Dallas won the 4-team player swap of the summer by acquiring Shawn Marion, who is a flat-out better player than Hedo Turkoglu. Shifting Dirk Nowitzki to the Center position this season will present the Mavericks with their best possible 5-Man Unit, allowing Josh Howard and The Matrix to co-exist as interchangeable #3/SF-#4/PF’s, in an under-sized line-up that is going to be very difficult for opponents to match-up against, given their ability to rebound ball with their superior athleticism. Rookie PG, Rodrigue Beaubois has the makings of a future “star” in the NBA, and it will be very interesting to see whether or not the Mavs choose to integrate him into their line-up this season with J-Kidd, Jason Terry and JJ Barea still on their roster. The Mavs are going to be a very good team this season and a tough out in the WC playoffs.

Game 6– @ Dallas [Sat Nov 07]

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 2-4

For those questioning the merit of yesterday’s poll which asked visitors to select between Andrea Bargnani and Danilo Gallinari … and the suggestion made by yours truly that the 2nd year New York Knick might just be the first coming of a hybrid ‘Larry Nowitzki’ … comes this news today, in the form of an absolutely stunning quote from a reputable source:

Knicks don’t expect too much from Curry

Coach Mike D’Antoni had a far more positive take on Danilo Gallinari, the 2008 lottery pick who finally is 100 percent healthy after a rookie season plagued by a back injury that was corrected by surgery in April. D’Antoni called Gallinari “the best shooter I’ve ever seen” and pointed out that in the 28 games he played last season, the Knicks were 14-14.

D’Antoni acknowledged that the 21-year-old needs to get stronger, but he also suggested that the multi-talented Gallinari could play a key role in the team’s achieving what most people see as an improbable result this season: a playoff berth.

“I think we can fool a lot of people,” D’Antoni said, “and I think we can overachieve.”

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High praise indeed, especially, when you consider some of the other players who the current Knicks head coach has previously had the good fortune of working with [A] in Phoenix … including Steve Nash, a former 2-time NBA MVP … and [B] with the USA’s Men’s National Team … including Kobe Bryant, a former NBA MVP, and Michael Redd, widely acknowledged as one of the best pure spot-up shooters in the NBA today.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 5 – @ New Orleans [Fri Nov 06]

Q1. What’s the reason Chris Bosh should be playing Center for the Raptors rather than Power Foward?

A1. Difficult individual match-ups like this vs David West [PF].

Instead of being able to use his significant quickness advantage against an upright player like Emeka Okafor [C], Bosh is forced to bang with one of the best scoring under-sized PF’s in the league. CP3′s combination of quickness and strength makes him a difficult check for Jose Calderon. Very seldom will a rookie [i.e. DeRozan] outperform an established player like Peja Stojakovic, especially, in a road game. Byron Scott is a first rate head coach.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 2-3

Here’s the link,

The 10 best point guards of the last decade,

Here’s the relevant quote, which attempts to categorize the extraordinary work of Chris Paul, during the first phase of his prolific pro career:

“Rings aside, Chris Paul has had the best first 300 games of any point guard in NBA history. Maybe the best 300 games in NBA point man history. He’s that good, that soon.” – KD

Here’s the comment I left, in reply:

“With all due respect, Chris Paul’s group of 1-300 games has not been better than Oscar Robertson’s.

Different, yes; but, not better.” - khandor

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FYI …

From Basketballreference.com:

Chris Paul and Oscar Robertson

Chris Paul vs Oscar Robertson

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The view from this corner?

The one and the only, Big O, still reigns supreme … in terms of sheer dominance, from this position, on a NBA court.

Andrea Bargnani [C, 7-0, 250] was the No. 1 [overall] Selection in the 2006 NBA Draft and is set to begin his 4th full season in the League.

Danilo Gallinari [F, 6-10, 225] was the No. 6 [overall] Selection in the 2008 NBA Draft and, following an injury-plagued 1st season last year, is set to begin his 2nd campaign … according to published reports … in good health. 

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The view from this corner says that … if both are able to maintain relatively good health … when all is said and done, 15-20 years from today, Danilo Gallinari will be acknowledged as the superior NBA player, by a wide margin, given his diverse skill-set.

If there’s going to be a next-coming, on the NBA horizon, which combines the attributes of Larry Bird and Dirk Nowitzki, in a hybrid form, Gallinari is THAT player.

Related:

The best shooter I’ve ever seen …