Initial thoughts on the Raptors talent base compared with the previous 3 seasons
Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:
|
# |
Pos |
2008-2009 33-49/.402 |
Adv |
2009-2010 ?/? |
Assessment |
|
|
|||||
|
1 |
PG |
Calderon |
à |
Calderon |
Injury-free = improved. |
|
2 |
OG |
Parker |
ß |
DeRozan |
Solid vet > NCAA rookie. |
|
3 |
SF |
Marion |
ß |
Turkoglu |
Better overall player. |
|
4 |
PF |
Bosh |
= |
Bosh |
Perennial All-Star. |
|
5 |
C |
Bargnani |
= |
Bargnani |
Same. *Wildcard*. |
|
|
|||||
|
6 |
PG |
Ukic |
à |
Jack |
Stable. Better shooter. |
|
7 |
OG |
Kapono |
à |
Belinelli |
Better scorer. Versatile. |
|
8 |
SF |
Graham |
= |
Wright |
Medium-grade players. |
|
9 |
PF |
M-Bonsu |
= |
Evans |
Energetic rebounder. |
|
10 |
C |
O’Bryant |
à |
Nesterovic |
Significant upgrade. |
|
|
|||||
|
11 |
PG |
Banks |
= |
Banks |
Same. |
|
12 |
OG |
Douby |
= |
Douby |
Same. |
|
13 |
PF |
Jawai |
= |
Weems [SF] |
Different not better. |
|
14 |
PF |
Humphries |
= |
Johnson |
Different. Similar. |
|
15 |
C |
Voskuhl |
= |
O’Bryant |
Will to improve? |
|
SUMMARY: - 2 players better from 2008-2009 [Darkest shade] - 10 players relatively equal - EDGE to 2009-2010 |
|||||
While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:
|
# |
Pos |
2007-2008 41-41/.500 |
Adv |
2009-2010 ?/? |
Assessment |
|
|
|||||
|
1 |
PG |
Ford |
à |
Calderon |
Injury-free = improved. |
|
2 |
OG |
Parker |
ß |
DeRozan |
Solid vet > Rookie. |
|
3 |
SF |
Moon |
à |
Turkoglu |
More consistent. |
|
4 |
PF |
Bosh |
= |
Bosh |
Perennial All-Star. |
|
5 |
C |
Bargnani |
= |
Bargnani |
Same. *Wildcard*. |
|
|
|||||
|
6 |
PG |
Calderon |
= |
Jack |
Similar value; diff skills. |
|
7 |
OG |
Delfino |
= |
Belinelli |
Similar value; diff skills. |
|
8 |
SF |
Kapono |
= |
Wright |
Similar value; diff skills. |
|
9 |
PF |
Humphries |
= |
Evans |
Energetic rebounder. |
|
10 |
C |
Nesterovic |
= |
Nesterovic |
Same; older now. |
|
|
|||||
|
11 |
PG |
Martin |
ß |
Banks |
Solid vet. Accepted role. |
|
12 |
OG |
Dixon |
= |
Douby |
Similar value; diff skills. |
|
13 |
SF |
Johnson-L |
= |
Weems |
Low grade players. |
|
14 |
PF |
Baston |
à |
Johnson-A |
Upside. Under-used. |
|
15 |
C |
Brezec |
= |
O’Bryant |
Will to improve? |
|
SUMMARY: - 2 players better from 2007-2008 [Darkest shade] - 10 players relatively equal - SLIGHT EDGE to 2009-2010 |
|||||
and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season:
|
# |
Pos |
2006-2007 47-35/.573 |
Adv |
2009-2010 ?/? |
Assessment |
|
|
|||||
|
1 |
PG |
Ford |
= |
Calderon |
Similar value, diff skills. |
|
2 |
OG |
Parker |
ß |
DeRozan |
Euro star > Experience. |
|
3 |
SF |
Peterson |
à |
Turkoglu |
More consistent player. |
|
4 |
PF |
Garbajosa |
= |
Bosh |
Versatile Euro player. |
|
5 |
C |
Bosh |
ß |
Bargnani |
All-Star > highly erratic. |
|
|
|||||
|
6 |
PG |
Calderon |
= |
Jack |
Similar value; diff skills. |
|
7 |
OG |
Graham |
à |
Belinelli |
More value; better skills. |
|
8 |
SF |
Bargnani |
ß |
Wright |
More value; better skills. |
|
9 |
PF |
Humphries |
= |
Evans |
Energetic rebounder. |
|
10 |
C |
Nesterovic |
= |
Nesterovic |
Same. Older now. |
|
|
|||||
|
11 |
PG |
Martin |
ß |
Banks |
Solid vet. Accepted role. |
|
12 |
OG |
Dixon |
= |
Douby |
Similar value; diff skills. |
|
13 |
SF |
Jackson |
= |
Weems |
Low grade players. |
|
14 |
PF |
Sow |
à |
Johnson-A |
Upside. Under-used. |
|
15 |
C |
Slokar |
= |
O’Bryant |
Different not better. |
|
SUMMARY: - 4 players better from 2006-2007 [Darkest shade] - 8 players relatively equal - SLIGHT EDGE to 2006-2007 |
|||||
the picture produced is somewhat different.
Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:
* MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];
* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,
* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].
Tags: Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Parker, Carlos Delfino, Chris Bosh, Darrick Martin, Jake Voskuhl, Jamario Moon, Jason Kapono, Joey Graham, Jorge Garbajosa, Jose Calderon, Juan Dixon, Kris Humphries, Linton Johnson (?), Luke Jackson, Maceo Baston, Marcus Banks, Morris Peterson, Nathan Jawai, Pape Sow, Patrick O'Bryant, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Primoz Brezec, Quincy Douby, Rasho Nesterovic, Roko Ukic, Shawn Marion, TJ Ford, Toronto Raptors, Urus Slokar
August 25th, 2009 at 9:46 am
I agree with all of your comparisons but one. You must surely feel that 2009/2010 Bosh is better than Garbajosa? While they bring different skills, I feel that Bosh next year is a significant upgrade to Garbojosa. Garbo had below average shooting (TS% .503, eFg% .472), poor offensive rebounder (2.9% ORB), poor rebounder in general (TRB% 10.2, for a comparioson, Bargnani had a rate of 10.0) his steals and blocks percentages were low and his rating differential was -4 (Ortg-Drtg). His PER was 12, which is also below league average.
In my opinion, I feel people over-rated the contributions of Garbo to the Raptors.
August 25th, 2009 at 10:09 am
Very thorough.
However, I disagree that 2006-2007 Garbajosa is an equivalent PF to 2009-2010 Bosh. I would suggest that a ‘versatile Euro player’ is a significant downgrade from a perennial all-star in a contract year.
Perhaps it would be best to say that Bosh = Bosh (even if, as you are showing, he played C then and is playing PF more now), and let Garbajosa > Bargs (which I’m not sure I agree with at this point) be your comparison.
Anyway - good comparisons all around - and if this team advances at all (potential from young players, different coach, experience for Bosh, Caldy, etc), we could see an improvement over the 06-07 team (which I think could actually have finished significantly better than 47-35 and gotten past the first round if Garbo hadn’t gone down).
August 25th, 2009 at 11:26 am
One of your better posts. Very good read. Again i agree with the others i think Bosh should get the nod over Garbo. Its really All-Star VS Toughness.
August 25th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Don’t like this analysis. Bosh = Garbo?!!! What about Bargnani’s improvement? How is Evans, someone that has been in the NBA as a proven commodity = to Pops who is a D-leaguer fighting to remain in the NBA. So Derozan is less talented than Parker, define talent? Do you mean better, or is it defined strictly on stats?
This analysis, or whatever you want to call it, is full of holes.
August 25th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
I’m not sure what this analysis tells you as your comparing the Raptors of this coming year to the Raptors of the past.
Are you trying to say the Raptors will end up with between 41 and 47 wins? That doens’t make sense because you should compare this years Raptors to other Eastern confetrence teams this year.
Vicious D from Raptors HQ has an interesting article that discusses the pitfalls of statistical analysis in Basketball and I’m afraid what you’ve done here is one of those pitfalls.
August 25th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
Garbo over Bosh…come on now.
August 25th, 2009 at 7:27 pm
Sorry… even is what u said…thats just as bad..LOL
August 25th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
Dino Gunners,
I didn’t rate Garbo as “better” than Bosh. I gave them a comparable value.
Based on what?
Not strictly on the basis of their “average game stats” that’s for sure.
- those who know what I’ve written about CB4 in the past know that I think he’s a terrific player … as a Center
- in my book, however, Bosh is only an above average Power Forward
- giving Garbo a comparable value to Bosh isn’t an effort to undercut Bosh
- giving Garbo a comparable value to Bosh isn’t an attempt to over-value as since-departed player
- giving Garbo a comparable value to Bosh is an effort to reflect accurately the way in which this specific player made a major contribution to their team that season … combining his statistical value with the series of intangibles that he also brought to the table which largely get ignored when others tend to evaluate NBA players, e.g. positional defense; positional rebounding; hockey-type 2nd assists; reading plays/situations correctly; minimizing opponents penetration opportunities [via pass or dribble]; disrupting an opponent’s offensive structure; facilitating his own team’s offensive efficiency; etc.
- in the brief history of this franchise, there has been no other player who was BETTER at this than Mr. Garbajosa, at the PF position operating beside Chris Bosh [i.e. Bosh/C + Garbo/PF], as well as, beside both Bosh and Nesterovic [i.e. Bosh/C + Nesterovic/PF + Garbo/SF]
Although I can certainly understand how others might assess Garbo to be an inferior player to Chris Bosh … for his contributions to the team’s success that season … I happen not to share that perspective.
August 25th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
DanH,
1. Thanks for the compliment.
2. re: Garbo [2006-2007] = Bosh [2009-2010]
Please see my response to Dino Gunners.
By all means, others are entiled to hold a different opinion about this talent value comparison.
3. I, too, think that the 2006-2007 team could well have beaten New Jersey in the 1st Round playoff series had Garbo not been injured.
Fate can be awful cruel sometimes.
August 25th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
INFO,
1. Thanks for the compliment.
2. re: Garbo [2006-2007] vs Bosh [2009-2010]
Please see my response to Dino Gunners.
By all means, others are entitled to hold a diffferent opinion about this talent value comparison.
In my book, Garbo brought more than just “toughness” to the table that season.
August 25th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
Raptor fan,
1. re: Garbo [2006-2007 vs Bosh [2009-2010]
Please see my respone to Dino Gunners.
2. re: Bargnani’s improvement
I am hoping to see evidence of this … but, until demonstrated otherwise, he remains a Center whose plusses are largely cancelled out by his minuses.
3. re: Evans [2008-2009] vs PMB [2008-2009]
Both were little more than back-up players for the respective teams last season.
In Philly, Evans was deemed “not worthy to get off the bench in their playoff series” because he is a bad individual match-up vs a player like Rashard Lewis, or Hedo Turkoglu, at the PF spot. Similar to PMB, he is a very limited PF.
4. re: Parker [2006-2007] vs DeRozan [2009-2010]
The only attribute which DeRozan has going for him right now in his personal match-up vs Parker is his vertical jump.
This might change with time.
My assessment isn’t based strictly on stats. [e.g. see my evaluation of Garbajosa]
August 25th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
BSG,
1. Welcome aboard!
2. re: the Raptors will win 41-47 games this season
That’s not a specific conclusion being drawn in this entry.
The PTL of the Raptors roster this season SHOULD fall somewhere between the 2006-2007 version … which won 47 games … and the 2007-2008 version … which won 41 games.
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NOTE: For further consideration, please take a look at the entry titled, “Strength of the Eastern Conference compared to 2006-2007.” In my book, there’s a lot that goes into assessing accurately how many wins a given team is most likely to amass this season, including much more than just this initial information touched upon here.
——————————————————————–
August 25th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
Gully Creepa,
1. Welcome aboard!
2. As I’ve said above … you are certainly entitled to hold that opinion if you wish.
August 26th, 2009 at 9:02 am
[...] Initial thoughts on the Raptors talent base compared with the previous 3 seasons - [...]
August 27th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
I think both the 06-07 and 07-08 teams are a tier ahead of this year’s edition of the Raptors. Both of those squads were good teams, with the 06-07 team being the better of the two. I see this year’s Raptors team as a mediocre one.
The minutes that are going to be given to Bargnani will hold this year’s squad back. If those minutes were transferred to Amir Johnson, and to the backup bigs, then I think the Raptors could set a franchise best mark for wins next season.