Initial thoughts on the Raptors talent base compared with the previous 3 seasons

Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

#

Pos

2008-2009

33-49/.402

Adv

2009-2010

?/?

Assessment

 

1

PG

Calderon

à

Calderon

Injury-free = improved.

2

OG

Parker

ß

DeRozan

Solid vet > NCAA rookie.

3

SF

Marion

ß

Turkoglu

Better overall player.

4

PF

Bosh

=

Bosh

Perennial All-Star.

5

C

Bargnani

=

Bargnani

Same. *Wildcard*.

 

6

PG

Ukic

à

Jack

Stable. Better shooter.

7

OG

Kapono

à

Belinelli

Better scorer. Versatile.

8

SF

Graham

=

Wright

Medium-grade players.

9

PF

M-Bonsu

=

Evans

Energetic rebounder.

10

C

O’Bryant

à

Nesterovic

Significant upgrade.

 

11

PG

Banks

=

Banks

Same.

12

OG

Douby

=

Douby

Same.

13

PF

Jawai

=

Weems [SF]

Different not better.

14

PF

Humphries

=

Johnson

Different. Similar.

15

C

Voskuhl

=

O’Bryant

Will to improve?

SUMMARY:

- 2 players better from 2008-2009 [Darkest shade]
- 4 players better from 2009-2010 [Darker shade]

- 10 players relatively equal

- EDGE to 2009-2010

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

#

Pos

2007-2008

41-41/.500

Adv

2009-2010

?/?

Assessment

 

1

PG

Ford

à

Calderon

Injury-free = improved.

2

OG

Parker

ß

DeRozan

Solid vet > Rookie.

3

SF

Moon

à

Turkoglu

More consistent.

4

PF

Bosh

=

Bosh

Perennial All-Star.

5

C

Bargnani

=

Bargnani

Same. *Wildcard*.

 

6

PG

Calderon

=

Jack

Similar value; diff skills.

7

OG

Delfino

=

Belinelli

Similar value; diff skills.

8

SF

Kapono

=

Wright

Similar value; diff skills.

9

PF

Humphries

=

Evans

Energetic rebounder.

10

C

Nesterovic

=

Nesterovic

Same; older now.

 

11

PG

Martin

ß

Banks

Solid vet. Accepted role.

12

OG

Dixon

=

Douby

Similar value; diff skills.

13

SF

Johnson-L

=

Weems

Low grade players.

14

PF

Baston

à

Johnson-A

Upside. Under-used.

15

C

Brezec

=

O’Bryant

Will to improve?

SUMMARY:

- 2 players better from 2007-2008 [Darkest shade]
- 3 players better from 2009-2010 [Darker shade]

- 10 players relatively equal

- SLIGHT EDGE to 2009-2010

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: 

#

Pos

2006-2007

47-35/.573

Adv

2009-2010

?/?

Assessment

 

1

PG

Ford

=

Calderon

Similar value, diff skills.

2

OG

Parker

ß

DeRozan

Euro star > Experience.

3

SF

Peterson

à

Turkoglu

More consistent player.

4

PF

Garbajosa

=

Bosh

Versatile Euro player.

5

C

Bosh

ß

Bargnani

All-Star > highly erratic.

 

6

PG

Calderon

=

Jack

Similar value; diff skills.

7

OG

Graham

à

Belinelli

More value; better skills.

8

SF

Bargnani

ß

Wright

More value; better skills.

9

PF

Humphries

=

Evans

Energetic rebounder.

10

C

Nesterovic

=

Nesterovic

Same. Older now.

 

11

PG

Martin

ß

Banks

Solid vet. Accepted role.

12

OG

Dixon

=

Douby

Similar value; diff skills.

13

SF

Jackson

=

Weems 

Low grade players.

14

PF

Sow

à

Johnson-A

Upside. Under-used.

15

C

Slokar

=

O’Bryant

Different not better.

SUMMARY:

- 4 players better from 2006-2007 [Darkest shade]
- 3 players better from 2008-2009 [Darker shade]

- 8 players relatively equal

- SLIGHT EDGE to 2006-2007

the picture produced is somewhat different.

Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:

MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];

* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,

* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].

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15 Responses to “Initial thoughts on the Raptors talent base compared with the previous 3 seasons”

  1. Dino Gunners Says:

    I agree with all of your comparisons but one. You must surely feel that 2009/2010 Bosh is better than Garbajosa? While they bring different skills, I feel that Bosh next year is a significant upgrade to Garbojosa. Garbo had below average shooting (TS% .503, eFg% .472), poor offensive rebounder (2.9% ORB), poor rebounder in general (TRB% 10.2, for a comparioson, Bargnani had a rate of 10.0) his steals and blocks percentages were low and his rating differential was -4 (Ortg-Drtg). His PER was 12, which is also below league average.

    In my opinion, I feel people over-rated the contributions of Garbo to the Raptors.

  2. DanH Says:

    Very thorough.

    However, I disagree that 2006-2007 Garbajosa is an equivalent PF to 2009-2010 Bosh. I would suggest that a ‘versatile Euro player’ is a significant downgrade from a perennial all-star in a contract year.

    Perhaps it would be best to say that Bosh = Bosh (even if, as you are showing, he played C then and is playing PF more now), and let Garbajosa > Bargs (which I’m not sure I agree with at this point) be your comparison.

    Anyway – good comparisons all around – and if this team advances at all (potential from young players, different coach, experience for Bosh, Caldy, etc), we could see an improvement over the 06-07 team (which I think could actually have finished significantly better than 47-35 and gotten past the first round if Garbo hadn’t gone down).

  3. INFO Says:

    One of your better posts. Very good read. Again i agree with the others i think Bosh should get the nod over Garbo. Its really All-Star VS Toughness.

  4. Raptor Fan Says:

    Don’t like this analysis. Bosh = Garbo?!!! What about Bargnani’s improvement? How is Evans, someone that has been in the NBA as a proven commodity = to Pops who is a D-leaguer fighting to remain in the NBA. So Derozan is less talented than Parker, define talent? Do you mean better, or is it defined strictly on stats?

    This analysis, or whatever you want to call it, is full of holes.

  5. Big Smoke Gary Says:

    I’m not sure what this analysis tells you as your comparing the Raptors of this coming year to the Raptors of the past.
    Are you trying to say the Raptors will end up with between 41 and 47 wins? That doens’t make sense because you should compare this years Raptors to other Eastern confetrence teams this year.
    Vicious D from Raptors HQ has an interesting article that discusses the pitfalls of statistical analysis in Basketball and I’m afraid what you’ve done here is one of those pitfalls.

  6. Gully Creepa Says:

    Garbo over Bosh…come on now.

  7. Gully Creepa Says:

    Sorry… even is what u said…thats just as bad..LOL

  8. khandor Says:

    Dino Gunners,

    I didn’t rate Garbo as “better” than Bosh. I gave them a comparable value.

    Based on what?

    Not strictly on the basis of their “average game stats” that’s for sure.

    - those who know what I’ve written about CB4 in the past know that I think he’s a terrific player … as a Center
    - in my book, however, Bosh is only an above average Power Forward
    - giving Garbo a comparable value to Bosh isn’t an effort to undercut Bosh
    - giving Garbo a comparable value to Bosh isn’t an attempt to over-value as since-departed player
    - giving Garbo a comparable value to Bosh is an effort to reflect accurately the way in which this specific player made a major contribution to their team that season … combining his statistical value with the series of intangibles that he also brought to the table which largely get ignored when others tend to evaluate NBA players, e.g. positional defense; positional rebounding; hockey-type 2nd assists; reading plays/situations correctly; minimizing opponents penetration opportunities [via pass or dribble]; disrupting an opponent’s offensive structure; facilitating his own team’s offensive efficiency; etc.
    - in the brief history of this franchise, there has been no other player who was BETTER at this than Mr. Garbajosa, at the PF position operating beside Chris Bosh [i.e. Bosh/C + Garbo/PF], as well as, beside both Bosh and Nesterovic [i.e. Bosh/C + Nesterovic/PF + Garbo/SF]

    Although I can certainly understand how others might assess Garbo to be an inferior player to Chris Bosh … for his contributions to the team’s success that season … I happen not to share that perspective. :-)

  9. khandor Says:

    DanH,

    1. Thanks for the compliment. :-)

    2. re: Garbo [2006-2007] = Bosh [2009-2010]

    Please see my response to Dino Gunners.

    By all means, others are entiled to hold a different opinion about this talent value comparison.

    3. I, too, think that the 2006-2007 team could well have beaten New Jersey in the 1st Round playoff series had Garbo not been injured.

    Fate can be awful cruel sometimes.

  10. khandor Says:

    INFO,

    1. Thanks for the compliment. :-)

    2. re: Garbo [2006-2007] vs Bosh [2009-2010]

    Please see my response to Dino Gunners.

    By all means, others are entitled to hold a diffferent opinion about this talent value comparison.

    In my book, Garbo brought more than just “toughness” to the table that season.

  11. khandor Says:

    Raptor fan,

    1. re: Garbo [2006-2007 vs Bosh [2009-2010]

    Please see my respone to Dino Gunners.

    2. re: Bargnani’s improvement

    I am hoping to see evidence of this … but, until demonstrated otherwise, he remains a Center whose plusses are largely cancelled out by his minuses.

    3. re: Evans [2008-2009] vs PMB [2008-2009]

    Both were little more than back-up players for the respective teams last season.

    In Philly, Evans was deemed “not worthy to get off the bench in their playoff series” because he is a bad individual match-up vs a player like Rashard Lewis, or Hedo Turkoglu, at the PF spot. Similar to PMB, he is a very limited PF.

    4. re: Parker [2006-2007] vs DeRozan [2009-2010]

    The only attribute which DeRozan has going for him right now in his personal match-up vs Parker is his vertical jump.

    This might change with time.

    My assessment isn’t based strictly on stats. [e.g. see my evaluation of Garbajosa]

  12. khandor Says:

    BSG,

    1. Welcome aboard! :-)

    2. re: the Raptors will win 41-47 games this season

    That’s not a specific conclusion being drawn in this entry.

    The PTL of the Raptors roster this season SHOULD fall somewhere between the 2006-2007 version … which won 47 games … and the 2007-2008 version … which won 41 games.

    ——————————————————————–
    NOTE: For further consideration, please take a look at the entry titled, “Strength of the Eastern Conference compared to 2006-2007.” In my book, there’s a lot that goes into assessing accurately how many wins a given team is most likely to amass this season, including much more than just this initial information touched upon here. :-)
    ——————————————————————–

  13. khandor Says:

    Gully Creepa,

    1. Welcome aboard! :-)

    2. As I’ve said above … you are certainly entitled to hold that opinion if you wish.

  14. Toronto Raptors Linkage for August 21st through August 26th :The AltRaps Blog Says:

    [...] Initial thoughts on the Raptors talent base compared with the previous 3 seasons – [...]

  15. Dave Says:

    I think both the 06-07 and 07-08 teams are a tier ahead of this year’s edition of the Raptors. Both of those squads were good teams, with the 06-07 team being the better of the two. I see this year’s Raptors team as a mediocre one.

    The minutes that are going to be given to Bargnani will hold this year’s squad back. If those minutes were transferred to Amir Johnson, and to the backup bigs, then I think the Raptors could set a franchise best mark for wins next season.

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