Los Angeles Lakers vs Orlando Magic, Individual Match-ups
Current Odds To Win This Series
Orlando +245
LOS ANGELES -265
The first question which needs to be asked and then answered regarding this series is:
Q1. What 5-Man Unit will the Lakers use to begin Game One?
A1. Either, Option I, Option II or Option III [see below]:
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2008-2009 NBA FINALS INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UPS, OPTION I
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1/LAL, 65-17 |
Advantage |
3/ORL, 59-23 |
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Fisher Bryant Ariza Gasol Bynum Farmar Vujacic Walton Odom Powell Brown Mbenga |
- <<- -> -> - - - - <- -> - - |
Alston Lee Turkoglu Lewis Howard Johnson Redick Pietrus Battie Gortat Lue Foyle |
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P Jackson |
<- |
S Van Gundy |
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OVERALL:+3 |
- |
OVERALL:+3 |
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Styles of Play PDR - 2 PAR - 14 RDR - 5 QR - 21 QIR – 6 |
-> <-
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Styles of Play PDR – 4 PAR - 6 RDR - 9 QR - 19 QIR – 5 |
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Legend: PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR – Quality Rating; QIR – Quality Index Ranking |
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2008-2009 NBA FINALS INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UPS, OPTION II
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1/LAL, 65-17 |
Advantage |
3/ORL, 59-23 |
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Fisher Bryant Ariza Odom Gasol Farmar Vujacic Walton Powell Bynum Brown Mbenga |
- <<- -> - - - - - -> - - |
Alston Lee Turkoglu Lewis Howard Johnson Redick Pietrus Battie Gortat Lue Foyle |
|
P Jackson |
<- |
S Van Gundy |
|
OVERALL:+3 |
- |
OVERALL:+2 |
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Styles of Play PDR - 2 PAR - 14 RDR - 5 QR - 21 QIR – 6 |
-> <-
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Styles of Play PDR – 4 PAR - 6 RDR - 9 QR - 19 QIR – 5 |
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Legend: PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR – Quality Rating; QIR – Quality Index Ranking |
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2008-2009 NBA FINALS INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UPS, OPTION III
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||
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1/LAL, 65-17 |
Advantage |
3/ORL, 59-23 |
|
Fisher Bryant Odom Ariza Gasol Farmar Vujacic Walton Powell Bynum Brown Mbenga |
- <<- - - - - - - -> - - |
Alston Lee Turkoglu Lewis Howard Johnson Redick Pietrus Battie Gortat Lue Foyle |
|
P Jackson |
<- |
S Van Gundy |
|
OVERALL:+3 |
- |
OVERALL:+1 |
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Styles of Play PDR - 2 PAR - 14 RDR - 5 QR - 21 QIR – 6 |
-> <-
|
Styles of Play PDR – 4 PAR - 6 RDR - 9 QR - 19 QIR – 5 |
|
Legend: PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR – Quality Rating; QIR – Quality Index Ranking |
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Q2. Which Option actually presents the better set of individual match-ups for each team?
A2. That’s the $64,000 Question for this series.
———-
Orlando’s Perspective
Option I
Gives the Magic their best opportunity to succeed, emphasizing Turkoglu’s Size & Skill Advantage vs Ariza, plus Lewis’ Quickness Advantage vs Gasol.
Option II
Limits the Magic to Turkoglu’s Size & Skill Advantage vs Ariza.
Option III
Chokes Off the Magic’s Offense, eliminating their Individual Advantages.
Los Angeles’ perspective
Option I
Gives the Lakers a chance to attack Lewis in the Pinch-Post position vs Gasol; but, exposes Gasol on the perimeter vs Lewis’ superior quickness.
Option II
Allows Bynum to work vs the Magic’s back-ups; but, exposes Gasol to be attacked by Howard in Low Block Post-ups.
Option III
Exposes Gasol to attacks by Howard; BUT, also ensures that Kobe can GO TO WORK vs Lee, unfettered, while, Bynum gets to work vs the Magic’s back-ups.
———-
Despite the Lakers now being a prohibitive favourite to win this series, there is still some legitimate “value” to be had with a play on the Magic, at +245 … if Los Angeles decides to go at Orlando with its customary M.O. [Option I].
That said, however, there is nothing about this series which SPELLS the word U-P-S-E-T, given the Individual Match-ups listed above.
———-
Related:
Charley Rosen’s 2009 NBA Finals Preview
Tags: Adonal Foyle, Andrew Bynum, Anthony Johnson, Charley Rosen, Courtney Lee, Derek Fisher, DJ Mbenga, Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, JJ Redick, Jordan Farmar, Josh Powell, Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers, Luke Walton, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, Orlando Magic, Pau Gasol, Phil Jackson, Rafer Alston, Rashard Lewis, Sasha Vujacic, Shannon Brown, Stan Van Gundy, Tony Battie, Trevor Ariza, Tyronn Lue
June 3rd, 2009 at 3:38 am
Now THIS is what I come here to read! Great analysis; I too am of the notion that LA will struggle if they continue to play their two bigs together against ORL, though this was actually the key to their success against DEN.
Lewis, though probably not worth a max deal, is a very tough player to match up with at the 4. I suppose, however, that his lack of girth at the 4 might be more of an issue on a team that didn’t feature a mammoth at the 5 spot.
What’s your opinion on the value of Nelson’s return?
June 3rd, 2009 at 5:15 am
Good analysis. Nelson coming back should be not be too big of a factor since they’ve gotten away with Alston at the point. Probably more of a motivator on the sidelines.
Come take a look at my blog as well:
sportshumor23.wordpress.com
June 3rd, 2009 at 11:38 am
Scott G.,
A 100% healthy Jameer Nelson would benefit Orlando in this series. A less-than 100% healthy does not.
———-
That said …
The Lakers are going to win this specific series. It’s just a matter of how many games it is going to take them.
June 4th, 2009 at 5:14 am
I agree, this is a great analysis. We have been discussing the Lewis/Gasol matchup, and how it’s not favourable for Gasol on either end of the floor. I would go with option 2 personally, but I suspect that phil will go with option 1. it may just be me, but phil has been shaky with some of his decisions the last couple years in the playoffs.
Sadly, the only way an upset happens is if Orlando shoots unconsciously from beyond the arc.
June 4th, 2009 at 5:23 am
I may have given the matchup edge to Pietrus over Walton for though, but it isn’t that significant an edge in terms of games won, still…
June 4th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Raps Fan,
I, too, think that Dr. Phil will open the series with Option 1.
Unfortunately … for those backing the Lakers … this might/will elongate this series unnecessarily.
Jackson has a strong sense of loyalty to his players … which is a good thing, in and of itself … but, it can sometimes mean that he is rather slow to make specific adjustments with his customary rotations.
That said … Jackson’s “slowness”, in this regard, does not mean that he is “too slow” in this area of the game to cause his teams to lose a 7 game series, when his personnel is superior to his opponent’s.
When PJ’s teams are in this type of situation … the fact is … they almost always deliver the goods, in the end, in spades.
Slow and steady wins the race, more frequently than not.
———-
IMO, Luke Walton is a better basketball player and a better athlete than many realize.
I like Mickael Pietrus a great deal, but … he has little actual advantage vs Walton, Jr. in any specific area of the game.
There’s a good reason Kobe has always had a special bond with “Bill’s kid”. Truly exceptional players have a highly developed “feel/sense” for those individuals around them who can get the job done right. Kobe likes to play with, and trusts, Luke Walton on his flank; so does Phil Jackson.
In my book, there’s considerable merit in that.