khandor’s sports blog

FINAL SCORE: Raptors 109, BULLS 98
Complete Game Info

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Earlier this season, Scott G., an astute NBA observer with a backgound in the game as a former university player, asked if this corner might be able to unearth some more information about what was casually referred to here as The Jason Kapono Effect on this year’s Toronto Raptors.

Although some might find it hard to believe, yours truly is a rather busy camper these days and doesn’t have nearly as much time available to devote to an in-depth statistical analysis of all-things Raptors, especially, in a season like this one … which has seen the team plummet to 13th place in the EC Standings.

Still, whenever possible, it’s a pleasure to provide a brief glimpse of something specific like this for a first-class individual like Scott G., if the opportunity presents itself, admittedly, in a limited way.

Such was the occasion last night, for the Raptors’ final game of the 2008-2009 season, versus the Chicago Bulls [7th place in the EC].

This is how the game played out for the Raptors:

TORONTO RAPTORS’ SHIFT TRACKER Wed Apr 15 2009 at Chicago Bulls
#	Time	1	2	3	4	5	Diff
1st Quarter
1	08:42	Calderon	Parker	Marion	Bosh	O’Bryant	+13
2	01:30	Calderon	Parker	Marion	MBonsu	Bosh	0
3	01:09	Ukic	Parker	Marion	MBonsu	Bosh	+1
4	00:39	Ukic	Parker	Marion	MBonsu	O’Bryant	0
2nd Quarter
5	01:46	Ukic	Kapono	Graham	MBonsu	O’Bryant	-2
6	02:59	Ukic	Kapono	Graham	Bosh	O’Bryant	+4
7	00:54	Calderon	Kapono	Graham	Marion	Bosh	-5
8	01:57	Calderon	Parker	Kapono	Marion	Bosh	-7
9	03:37	Calderon	Parker	Marion	Bosh	O’Bryant	+3
10	00:25	Calderon	Parker	Graham	Marion	Bosh	+4
11	00:22	Calderon	Ukic	Graham	Marion	Bosh	0
3rd Quarter
12	06:21	Calderon	Parker	Marion	Bosh	O’Bryant	+1
13	02:13	Calderon	Parker	Marion	Bosh	Voskuhl	0
14	01:39	Ukic	Parker	Marion	Bosh	Voskuhl	+2
15	00:47	Ukic	Kapono	Graham	Bosh	Voskuhl	0
4th Quarter
16	03:04	Ukic	Kapono	Graham	Marion	O’Bryant	+1
17	03:30	Calderon	Kapono	Graham	Marion	Bosh	-5
18	05:05	Calderon	Parker	Kapono	Marion	Bosh	+1
19	00:21	Calderon	Parker	Kapono	Graham	O’Bryant	-1
LEGEND: Bold – Player subbed into game; Italics – Player shifted to different position.

 

and this is how things looked from a “Best Raptors” and “Best Bulls” on the floor perspective, according to the rudimentary k-PER [i.e. khandor's Player Efficiency Rating] which was explained here last week:

Bulls  98 Raptors  109
Player MIN kPER D-Rose 43 +28 J-Noah 31 +21 B-Miller 30 +20 Ty-Thomas 30 +17 B-Gordon 36 +9 L-Johnson 4 +2 Ti-Thomas 19 +2 J-Salmons 29 -3 K-Hinrich 17 -6 A-Gray DNP – L-Hunter DNP – A-Roberson DNP – L-Deng DNP – J-James DNP – D-Nelson DNP – TOTAL   90	Player MIN kPER S-Marion 42 +43 J-Calderon 36 +23 C-Bosh 42 +20 A-Parker 35 +10 P-O’Bryant 27 +8 J-Kapono 20 +7 R-Ukic 12 +4 J-Voskuhl 6 +3 J-Graham 14 +1 P-MBonsu 5 -5 Q-Doubyl DNP – M-Banks DNP – N-Jawai DNP – K-Humphries DNP – A-Bargnani DNP – TOTAL   114

If you examine these two indexes thoroughly what you should be able to see for yourself are the following facts:

The Raptors played without Andrea Bargnani last night.

The Raptors finished +23 when Chris Bosh played Power Forward [20:42].
The Raptaors finished -11 when Chris Bosh played Center [14:52].
The Raptors finished -1 when Chris Bosh was on the bench [05:50].

When Chris Bosh played Center AND Jason Kapono was on the floor … for 11:26 … the Raptors finished -16.

When Chris Bosh played Center AND Jason Kapono was NOT on the floor … for 03:26 … the Raptors finished +5.

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Preliminary Conclusions

When the Raptors play without Andrea Bargnani in their line-up AND play Chris Bosh at Center AND do NOT have Jason Kapono on the floor in a 5-Man Unit with CB4 they may be a solid team in the EC that is capable of competing effectively with squads like the Chicago Bulls.

Pointing Toward The Future

Some other enterprising young person should take the time to study initial data like this and then track the “cumulative negative effect” it has on a NBA team when a non-rebounder/defender who is also an infrequent shooter and does not get to the Free Throw very much at all … like Jason Kapono … is on the court for as much as 20 minutes per game, beside a finesse Center like Chris Bosh and finesse Point Guards like Jose Calderon and/or Roko Ukic and/or Anthony parker.

What they might find is that this type of comparative analysis actually yields a statistically significant finding … with the benefit of a representative sample size … which indicates that the Raptors are simply WASTING THEIR AVAILABLE RESOURCES by employing a player like Jason Kapono in this way.

From the perspective of this corner … although these old eyes could always be mistaken about this … a formal research study of that particular type doesn’t appear to be necessary.

Tags: Aaron Gray, Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Roberson, Ben Gordon, Brad Miller, Chris Bosh, Derrick Rose, Jake Voskuhl, Jason Kapono, Joakim Noah, Joey Graham, Johns Salmons, Jose Calderon, Kirk Hinrich, Kris Humphries, Lindsey Hunter, Linton Johnson (?), Marcus Banks, Nathan Jawai, Patrick O'Bryant, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Quincy Douby, Roko Ukic, Shawn Marion, Tim Thomas, Tyrus Thomas

This entry was posted on Thursday, April 16th, 2009 at 1:15 pm and is filed under Basketball, NBA. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.