Reading between the lines on John Hollinger
When this corner of the blogosphere sees an article like this one on-line, from a well-respected NBA observer, like John Hollinger, it makes yours truly go … Hmmm?
Which Lottery Teams have a shot at earning a spot in the playoffs next season?
5. Toronto: The reason I think Toronto can improve is pretty simple — I just don’t understand how they’re this bad.
On paper, a team with Chris Bosh, Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani and Shawn Marion should be monstrously efficient, even with the wing players contributing comparatively little. And at the defensive end, the Raps will almost certainly be better if they’re contending for something, as they appeared to give up on this season once they fell out of the race.
As with the other teams listed above, they’ll be getting a high draft pick, and Toronto also has some cap space at its disposal, depending on how it decides to proceed with Marion.
I don’t know if that’s enough to get this team back to the postseason — but regardless, there’s no reason they should be this far out of the race.
Is this an accurate representation of the current situation, in the NBA, pertaining to the Raptors?
There will be 14 teams miss the playoffs this season.
If these 2 simple assumptions are made [to start things off]:
1. Chicago will get the #8 spot in the Eastern Conference.
2. Dallas will get the #8 spot in the Western Conference.
This, then, leaves the following 14 teams on the outside looking in this post-season:
Now … if this 3rd assumption is then made:
3. Memphis will be the 2nd “least likely” team to reach the playoffs next season.
and, then, this 4th assumption is made:
4. Sacramento will be the 1st “least likely” team to reach the playoffs next season;
… logically, this would then have to mean that John Hollinger thinks the Toronto Raptors [#5 on the list in this article: Calderon, Parker, Marion, Bosh & Bargnani] will have a better chance of returning to the playoffs next season than each of the:
#6 Phoenix Suns … Nash, Stoudemire, Hill, Barbosa, Richardson & O’Neal
#7 Golden State Warriors … Ellis, Crawford, Maggette, Jackson & Biedrins
#8 Milwaukee Bucks … Sessions, Jefferson, Villanueva, LRMAM & Bogut
#9 New Jersey Nets … Harris, Carter, Simmons, Jianlian & Lopez
#10 New York Knicks … Duhon, Hughes, Chandler, Harrington & Lee
#11 Charlotte Bobcats … Augustin, Bell, Wallace, Diaw & Okafor
#12 Indiana Pacers … Ford, Granger, Dunleavy, Murphy & Hibbert
… in addition to the lowly #13 Memphis Grizzlies and the #14 Sacramento Kings.
While this is certainly an interesting position to take …
Is it completely accurate to suggest that John Hollinger really thinks the Raptors will have a better chance to make the playoffs next season, in comparison with each of those teams listed above from #6-12?
In all likelihood …
No, it is not.
Here’s what this corner suggests you do to find out the answer to that specific question:
Send John Hollinger an email in which you ask,
“If he truly believes that the Toronto Raptors will have a better chance of making the NBA Playoffs next season than each of the [i] Suns, [ii] Warriors, [iii] Bucks, [iv] Nets, [v] Knicks, [vi] Bobcats, and [vii] Pacers?”
If you do … it says here & now that the answer which you will get back in return says,
“No, I do not think the Raptors have the 5th best chance of the 14 teams that missed the playoffs this season of making it back to the playoffs next year.”
How could this possibly be, you ask?
It says here that John’s article does not actually consider the plight of Toronto in comparison with Chicago, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New York, Charlotte, Indiana, Phoenix and Golden State.
What it does is compare the chances of:
Washington/#1, Oklahoma City/#2, LA Clippers/#3, Minnesota/#4, Toronto/#5, Memphis/#6 and Sacramento/#7
[the teams that are definitely going to miss the playoffs this season in John's mind]
against one another, in terms of their likelihood to make the playoffs next season after missing out this year … that’s all.
Although yours truly could always turn out to be completely wrong about the proper way to interpret John Hollinger’s work.
Tags: John Hollinger