Reading between the lines on John Hollinger

When this corner of the blogosphere sees an article like this one on-line, from a well-respected NBA observer, like John Hollinger, it makes yours truly go … Hmmm?

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Which Lottery Teams have a shot at earning a spot in the playoffs next season?
5. Toronto: The reason I think Toronto can improve is pretty simple — I just don’t understand how they’re this bad.

On paper, a team with Chris Bosh, Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani and Shawn Marion should be monstrously efficient, even with the wing players contributing comparatively little. And at the defensive end, the Raps will almost certainly be better if they’re contending for something, as they appeared to give up on this season once they fell out of the race.

As with the other teams listed above, they’ll be getting a high draft pick, and Toronto also has some cap space at its disposal, depending on how it decides to proceed with Marion.

I don’t know if that’s enough to get this team back to the postseason — but regardless, there’s no reason they should be this far out of the race.

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Is this an accurate representation of the current situation, in the NBA, pertaining to the Raptors?

Well …

There will be 14 teams miss the playoffs this season.

If these 2 simple assumptions are made [to start things off]:

1. Chicago will get the #8 spot in the Eastern Conference.
2. Dallas will get the #8 spot in the Western Conference.

This, then, leaves the following 14 teams on the outside looking in this post-season:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Charlotte
Indiana
Milwaukee
New Jersey
New York
Toronto
Washington

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Golden State
LA Clippers
Memphis
Minnesota
Oklahoma City
Phoenix 
Sacramento

Now … if this 3rd assumption is then made:

3. Memphis will be the 2nd “least likely” team to reach the playoffs next season.

and, then, this 4th assumption is made:

4. Sacramento will be the 1st “least likely” team to reach the playoffs next season;

… logically, this would then have to mean that John Hollinger thinks the Toronto Raptors [#5 on the list in this article: Calderon, Parker, Marion, Bosh & Bargnani] will have a better chance of returning to the playoffs next season than each of the:

#6 Phoenix Suns … Nash, Stoudemire, Hill, Barbosa, Richardson & O’Neal
#7 Golden State Warriors … Ellis, Crawford, Maggette, Jackson & Biedrins
#8 Milwaukee Bucks … Sessions, Jefferson, Villanueva, LRMAM & Bogut 
#9 New Jersey Nets … Harris, Carter, Simmons, Jianlian & Lopez
#10 New York Knicks … Duhon, Hughes, Chandler, Harrington & Lee
#11 Charlotte Bobcats … Augustin, Bell, Wallace, Diaw & Okafor
#12 Indiana Pacers … Ford, Granger, Dunleavy, Murphy & Hibbert

… in addition to the lowly #13 Memphis Grizzlies and the #14 Sacramento Kings. 

While this is certainly an interesting position to take …

Is it completely accurate to suggest that John Hollinger really thinks the Raptors will have a better chance to make the playoffs next season, in comparison with each of those teams listed above from #6-12?

In all likelihood …

No, it is not.

Here’s what this corner suggests you do to find out the answer to that specific question:

Send John Hollinger an email in which you ask,

“If he truly believes that the Toronto Raptors will have a better chance of making the NBA Playoffs next season than each of the [i] Suns, [ii] Warriors, [iii] Bucks, [iv] Nets, [v] Knicks, [vi] Bobcats, and [vii] Pacers?”

Send John Hollinger a Question via Email

If you do … it says here & now that the answer which you will get back in return says,

“No, I do not think the Raptors have the 5th best chance of the 14 teams that missed the playoffs this season of making it back to the playoffs next year.”

How could this possibly be, you ask?

It says here that John’s article does not actually consider the plight of Toronto in comparison with Chicago, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New York, Charlotte, Indiana, Phoenix and Golden State. 

What it does is compare the chances of:

Washington/#1, Oklahoma City/#2, LA Clippers/#3, Minnesota/#4, Toronto/#5, Memphis/#6 and Sacramento/#7

[the teams that are definitely going to miss the playoffs this season in John's mind]

against one another, in terms of their likelihood to make the playoffs next season after missing out this year … that’s all.

Although yours truly could always turn out to be completely wrong about the proper way to interpret John Hollinger’s work. :-)

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12 Responses to “Reading between the lines on John Hollinger”

  1. FLUXLAND Says:

    In all likelihood Mr. H. has not seen any Raptor games this season and is, overall, only familiar with its geographic location. Not to mention, it also appears he has resorted to the Bryan Colangelo modus operandi when it comes to the Raptors, a.k.a. the (individual player) “on paper” analysis. :)

  2. khandor Says:

    Flux,

    Unlike others … I do not think that John Hollinger is the sort of NBA analyst who would formulate his opinions on the Raptors without having watched them play himself.

    With the advent of NBA League Pass and the benefit of satellite TV … I would be willing to wager a large sum of my own hard-earned $$$ that Mr. Hollinger takes the time to watch every team in the league play on a regular basis, in an effort to do his job properly.

    When/if I disagree with one or more of John’s opinions it is not because I think he doesn’t watch the different teams play in the NBA, and is simply a stats-based number-cruncher.

  3. Dave Says:

    Milwaukee, Washington, Phoenix and Toronto.

    That’s my top four most likely to make the playoffs next season off of that list.

  4. FLUXLAND Says:

    My comment was more in jest, then an actual opinion. Clearly, I have zero insight on what his actual methods of evaluation are.

  5. khandor Says:

    Flux,

    1. Likewise … my initial comment was about “others” was not directed soley towards what you said.

    It’s comical reading the comments of other “others” on different web sites who seem to think that someone like John Hollinger doesn’t actually watch his fair share of Raptors’ games, just like he does for the other teams in the NBA.

    2. Have you checked out what “Frank White” thinks of certain comment contributors over at RR? [and the people who operate the web site]

    Seems as though “ole Notorious” be upset about something. :-)

  6. khandor Says:

    Dave,

    As you suggested on your site earlier today … with the actual closeness of many of the teams in the EC right now, IMO, it’s a crapshoot to try and say with any degree of accuracy which of the non-playoff teams from this season will have the most likely chance of cranking it up a notch and making the playoffs next season.

    Personally, I would want to wait until later in the summer before venturing an educated guess at what those “top 5″ teams might actually look like next year.

  7. FLUXLAND Says:

    Khandor,

    I wrote a long reply to Mr. Frank White, but then decided against posting it. I’m guessing at that level of delusion he must distort everything he reads, where writing anything back is useless.

    :) He’s absolutely upset about something… I’m assuming it’s about what he says at the start of the rant: “recognition”. Overall, simply unreal he thinks that way.

    Did you happen to see Tim and Tony miss 6 FTs? It was really odd to watch, I had just turned to the game tied at 76 with 2:24 to go.

  8. khandor Says:

    Flux,

    Yes, I did happen to catch the Spurs/Celtics match-up … and, as a matter of fact, had 3 separate tickets on that game during the 2nd half:

    No. 1 – Bos +125
    No. 2 – Bos +2.5/+108
    No. 3 – Bos +133

    The six missed FTs in a row were actually by Tony [4] and Michael [2], not Tim D. Very rare indeed.

  9. FLUXLAND Says:

    Ooops! Yes, it was Michael F. missing 2. Tony missing the last two, or at least the very last one was… weird. The 1st two, I thought were a “ball don’t lie” situation, as I didn’t think Tony got fouled. Neither did Doc, it seems.

    Betting against the Cobra Kai? What will Pop think? ; )

  10. khandor Says:

    Pop will think that I am someone who calls ‘em as I sees ‘em … just like he does. :-)

    —————-

    Actually gave Arsenalist “advanced notice” on a NCAA 2nd Round game Saturday which I thought was going to be financially rewarding. It came thru in spades. Hopefully he benefitted, as well.

    Do you think individuals like Frank White, and Andiamo, and nunya, and pizzaman, etc., realize that this is in fact a small part of what I do?

    methinks not. ;-)

  11. Linkage for Mar 20 2pm to Mar 23 7am - Raptors Republic Says:

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